2021 Conference USA Men’s Basketball Tournament Preview
I’m BAAAAAACCCKKKKKK!!!!
I’m BAAAAAACCCKKKKKK!!!!
Man, it feels good to be writing for The Towel Rack again! It’s been nearly a year since I decided to take a break, and honestly, I missed being a part of the team, having constant information about the Tops, and paying attention to the most minute detail.
Regardless, I’m back and it’s time for some in depth conference tournament previews and predictions. I was known for my long-windedness, and I guarantee this is going to be a long one. But I will take you deep into each team, their results, their talent, and their chances.
We’ll start from the bottom and make our way up by seed, look at each individual path to the finals, and make a prediction according to the data.
Final C-USA Standings
Setting the Scene
Let’s cut to the chase: C-USA is actually a pretty good conference this season, but no team can boast a legitimate at-large resume and C-USA will be a one bid league barring unforeseen favor by the NCAA Selection Committee. With UNT losing three in a row, WKU and La Tech are the only two who could now make an argument, and both have multiple bad losses and missed opportunities. Long story short, they might get mentioned, but if they lose, they’re ultimately going to be out.
Given the nature of athletics in the midst of the global pandemic and the fact that C-USA happens to have a really nice mixture of young talent and experience and underachieving preseason favorites, the Conference USA Tournament is anyone’s for the taking. No team can truly claim pure dominance, and regardless of the path, each team is likely to run into an opponent it has not faced this season for whatever reason.
Let the games begin.
The Bracket
With COVID-19 turning the world upside down, Conference USA endured dealing with its own spin off from the reaction to the coronavirus pandemic. Conference USA decided to do a couple of things to minimize the spread and keep things simpler. As per usual, simplification really meant making it more of a headache than normal.
Nonetheless, C-USA decided to do a few things to try to keep fairness as much as possible: Creating an East and West Division and having teams play each on the same court back-to-back nights, with the exception of the typical “travel partners”, who each played a game at home and on the road at some point during the season, if possible during the same week to keep the spread down.
In addition, it was announced and made official later in the season that winning percentage would determine division winners and seeding and all teams would participate in the conference tournament. Previously, only 12 of 14 members would participate in the conference tournament. Due to a range of games played from 12–18 due to COVID and weather-related issues, the bottom teams especially missed out on opportunities to earn their way into a normal 12 team field.
An overall bizarre year, ultimately the prognosticators still mostly knew what they were talking about, predicting the eventual conference regular season champion in WKU, getting six of the top seven within range, and ultimately knew the bottom of the league’s place in the hierarchy. The only real surprises from preseason were Charlotte, a dark horse in the East, that ultimately finished tenth overall, and La Tech, predicted to finish 7th overall, actually won the West Division outright, defeating all West contenders and splitting with WKU, the conference regular season champion.
With completed conference games ranging from only 12 (FAU) to completing all 18 (UAB) and no team playing more than nine of its conference mates, who really knows what to expect coming into Tuesday’s opening round match-ups?
This year has been such an interesting year, so truly any of possibly eight teams could claim a legitimate shot at a deep run. Perhaps your main favorites should be WKU, La Tech, and UAB. But we could easily throw Marshall, UNT, and ODU in there without getting laughed at. Even UTSA and UTEP have been mentioned as possible legitimate dark horses.
So, Lord help us all, let’s break it down and try to figure out who’s got a chance and who’s going to pull it off this year.
From Bottom to Tops
Bottom Dwellers
7E. Before we could even see the cellar dweller game that would be FIU vs MTSU, the Panthers had to drop out of the tournament completely due to Covid and health protocols.
FIU had come undone since entering C-USA play. Inexplicably, FIU was 7–2 heading into C-USA play. With some internal drama and a random assortment of talent and transfers, FIU had just not been able to put anything together in C-USA, actually playing all but one scheduled game in conference. FIU’s only wins came against first-round opponent MTSU and surprisingly, Old Dominion, albeit at home in early January. FIU had not won a conference game since January 8th. They did post a 16 point victory over Florida Memorial February 1st.
Even though they arguably shouldn’t have been in the conference tournament to begin with, this seems like the fitting end to their season. They can now move on from their awful season with hopes of trying to pick up the pieces and rebuild for next year.
6E. MTSU is a sad crater compared to the glory from the late Kermit Davis era. Davis left MTSU to coach Ole Miss, and MTSU’s program was gutted, with massive departures, some internal drama, and some incredible growing pains. MTSU is actually showing signs of life, winning three conference games, one of which was against FIU. With FIU dropping out though, they are clearly the worst team C-USA has to offer right now, and their game in the second round against North Texas likely won’t end well for the Blue Raiders.
7W. Southern Miss is also a program that has quickly plummeted after Doc Sadler decided to leave the program after the season in 2019. Sadler was a solid coach, getting a decent program to perform at a respectable level for years. Since his departure, the Golden Eagles are just struggling. Southern Miss has had issues across the board in athletics, and it’s sad to see this bleeding over into basketball. However, USM does boast four conference wins, albeit against the likes of FIU, UTEP, and MTSU.
The Golden Eagles should really not expect much more than hoping to beat Rice for the first time in three tries. Second round opponent Marshall would not be a good match-up. One could argue Marshall lives and dies by the three ball, but Marshall really has no bad losses on the year in or out of conference. That doesn’t seem like an open door for USM. However, it’s March. Anything can happen game-to-game. I really don’t see USM doing anything more than being 50/50 to get to the second round.
6W. Rice is a little more interesting than these other bottom feeders. Yes, they only boast five conference wins. However, they have a winning overall record, suggesting they are a little better than they may seem. Rice beat Southern Miss fairly easily in its first two games, but again, how difficult is it to beat a team three times? Rice did beat ODU once, swept UTSA, and split with UTEP and had a winning record in non-conference against mostly cupcakes. Those are respectable results. This is a team that could certainly beat Southern Miss, but could also pose a threat to Marshall, although logic would seem to assume Marshall should win if they draw Rice. Watch for Rice to be competitive with Marshall, though.
Middle of the Pack
5W. UTEP is an interesting and dangerous team. The Miners just recently went to Kansas and lost by 5. They also beat Arizona State by double digits and lost to Arizona by eight in non-conference. They found a way to take down La Tech convincingly, albeit early on in conference play. Anyone overlooking this team could get surprised. However, UTEP also has lost to some inferior opponents in conference and is right at a .500 team despite some of the better wins in C-USA.
This team is talented enough to hang with anyone. Ironically enough, the division winner La Tech Bulldogs wait for them (if they survive FAU) in the quarterfinals. That could be a fascinating match-up and a possible sexy bracket buster type of pick if UTEP can get past FAU.
That being said, FAU poses issues for UTEP. The Owls are a solid team, but really played no one significant because of COVID issues. FAU only squeaked out 12 conference games but did post a 7–5 record in those games. UTEP was one of the three series the Owls missed (WKU and Marshall). Perhaps the Owls would have lost five of those six games and been in a different spot than fourth in the East. I spent some time on UTEP because I think they’re a legitimate contender to make a run into the semifinals or finals if the other quarterfinal on that side of the bracket sees an upset. They are talented and could step it up in the big moment. They also have the confidence against their quarterfinal opponent.
5E. Charlotte is an interesting team, as well. First of all, they do have a pretty terrible draw, getting UTSA first round, who could seriously win the whole tournament despite really being an 8 seed. Second round, if they make it, would be against WKU, a team they did beat, but a team that played absolutely horribly on that night without Charles Bassey at full strength. If Charlotte were to make it past WKU, they would get the winners of UAB, Marshall, Rice, and USM.
Charlotte is arguably the weakest team on its side of the bracket, so it just seems highly unlikely they make any kind of run. They are not playing well, have been handled easily by good and bad alike since the beginning of February, and clearly seem to be ready to just finish the season and hope for better next year. If Charlotte woke up, they could easily be talented and well-coached enough to upset a team or two. But it’s a tall task for a team to suddenly come alive out of nowhere against better opponents.
4W. UTSA is a dangerous opponent for anyone. They still boast Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, who are both pro prospects and have seemingly been there forever. The Roadrunners most recently beat an opponent by 80 to tune up for conference tournament, which is difficult to do for any team at any level. UTSA put up 96 on UAB in their last conference game, the same UAB who you will see below averages giving up 60 a night and is a legit favorite to win the conference.
If the Roadrunners can come up with some defense, why couldn’t this team win four in four days? I see no reason why they couldn’t, and WKU could actually be a really good match-up for them. WKU had issues with them in recent years, and the Tops struggle to shoot outside. Then moving on to the semifinals, it could be Marshall or UAB. UAB I think would handle UTSA well on most nights, but Marshall would be a fascinating matchup simply because both teams love to shoot. If UTSA made it to the finals, all bets are off when you’ve got two legit 25 point performance threats out there on the biggest stage. Jackson and Wallace seem to have aged a little bit, dropping off on their production, but they still average 36 points per game combined.
4E. FAU is frankly a team bloated by pure luck. COVID served them well, keeping them both fresh for tournament by only playing 12 conference games, but also by really only having to play one legit contender en route to a winning record in C-USA. Sure, they played the schedule they were allowed to play. However, FAU is not, in my opinion, an opponent that will have the opposition quaking in their Jordan’s. Sure they should be respected, but I don’t think anyone should anticipate much more than maybe a first round win.
However, FAU could pose a threat and match-up problem with La Tech if you look into the numbers deeper. La Tech has some thick size down low, with freshman Player-of-the-Year shoe-in Kenneth Lofton, Jr. However, FAU can both offer pretty good size to combat La Tech’s physical bigs, as well as shoots 37% from three, which always gives an inferior team a puncher’s chance.
Real Contenders
3W. UNT has ultimately disappointed this season. All is not lost, but winning one of three previous three may have saved an extra game. The Mean Green were thought to be a favorite by a small minority of coaches (3) in C-USA from the jump. In addition, they were looking at a West Division championship until losing three in a row, including getting swept by UAB to finish the season and end up as what would be a sixth seed in a normal year instead of possibly hoisting a regular season trophy.
That being said, is there any question North Texas could win the tournament if they just got back on track? Javion Hamlett and Co. are really talented, running 8 or 9 deep on the bench and were playing well until the past few weeks. This team generally hangs close, or if they win, 9 of 13 wins were by double digits. That just means they don’t mess around and taste blood instead of allowing teams to get back in it. UNT also faced Arkansas, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and Loyola-Chicago in non-conference, holding their own and losing by no more than 14 to each of those foes. If I’m looking at a possible team to win four in four days, this would probably be my pick.
3E. Marshall is ever dangerous. Dan D’Antoni has built a non-conventional program in a traditional mid-major league and it works out really well. Just like Jeff Jones at ODU, D’Antoni’s system is completely different from anyone else’s in the conference. What does that spell? Matchup nightmare!
This team is not Marshall’s best in recent memory, but Tayvion Kinsey is a legit pro that can take over a game and get his teammates going like few can in C-USA. The guys averages a flat 20 a game shooting 54% from the field, 44% from three, and 82% from the line. He rebounds, he assists, and he defends. He reminds me of a longer and thinner Courtney Lee in many ways. He’s clearly the best athlete on most nights.
If Marshall had someone of his caliber next to him, they could really be dynamic. They’re still good and still a possible dark horse. However, I believe they have the toughest road of anyone. After a second round game that should be easier, they would face UAB and then WKU. Then they would move on to the championship, likely facing ODU, UNT, or La Tech. Think of Marshall’s style of play and their lack of stellar talent besides Kinsey. They likely need a busted bracket and some fluke type games along the way, but if they get it, they could win the whole thing, just like they did in 2018.
2W. UAB really comes into the tournament with a confidence boost, sweeping North Texas in Denton, a really tough place to play. Before the UNT trip, UAB had gone 4–4 in February, really sliding and struggling against the likes of La Tech (swept), ODU (split), and UTSA (Split). Before that stretch, UAB was frankly the shock of the league, sporting only two losses, albeit against a weaker schedule. Everyone kept waiting for UAB to completely meltdown and turn into a middle-to-low seed and it never happened. They were solid.
There a couple of wild cards to UAB. First, Head Coach Andy Kennedy. That man knows what he’s doing and has immediately turned around a proud program into a contender in months. Second, UAB’s weak schedule. Until sweeping North Texas, UAB’s lone impressive win was a home game against Old Dominion. The next most impressive was sweeping UTEP. So how good are they? They didn’t play WKU. They were swept by La Tech. They swept what had been a sputtering North Texas team that really seems to have lost its mojo. Does that really count? The non-conference was weak with a lone loss to a decent Chattanooga by three.
UAB is a mystery, but they play great defense, barely allowing 60 per game. They force turnovers and take care of the ball. They average outscoring opponents by 13. This is an extremely well-coached team and my third favorite, simply for offensive and defensive efficiency and some good, experienced players. Their toughest obstacle, like Marshall, is the draw and a lack of a proven superstar. Fortunately for them, they only have to win three games. They could absolutely do it.
2E. ODU, as mentioned above, is an absolute nightmare for some teams in C-USA. Jeff Jones has brought his style to win over 500 Division I games at several different schools, appearing in 13 different non-conference postseason tournaments as a head coach. That alone makes them dangerous. This season, they finish second in the East, despite losing tons of talent and not getting to compete last season for a championship. This season, they are probably viewed as the fifth or sixth favorite, but I would not discount this team and frankly view them as a team that stands out.
They just beat Western Kentucky on the road two games ago. WKU then struggled to beat them Saturday night and squeaked out a win when ODU missed a wide open three to tie. ODU has had a few head scratching losses, seemed to struggle early on in the year, and really didn’t come on until late. However, anyone paying attention should see that this is a legit contender. Jeff Jones is far and away the most experienced postseason coach in the conference, but also his team has NCAA Tournament experience, being the most recent representative for C-USA in the Big Dance. And as mentioned, they play a slow, deliberate style that can put defenses to sleep and lull the opposing defenders into missing assignments. Getting second in the East also means they are one of the four teams with a bye, which massively increases chances in general.
The Favorites
1W. La Tech clearly has to be considered dead even with WKU for a variety of reasons. First, they’ve earned it in general. They are very consistent, beating who they should beat, splitting with who they should split, winning comfortably against inferior competition. La Tech doesn’t have that signature non-conference win, but it owns wins against all of the favorites it played. They also have the horses to win the race.
The Bulldogs are a “steady Eddie” type of contender. These guys are not going to beat themselves, they’re balanced, and they’re consistent. You can beat La Tech with a better performance, but you are not going to outwork them and they will likely be in whatever game you play. In only one game this season, against LSU, they lost by double digits. Every other game was a close battle or a blowout in their favor.
1E. WKU is a coulda shoulda woulda at-large outlier. The Hilltoppers blew a double digit lead at home Friday against ODU or would still be a bubble team. Nonetheless, WKU is dangerous to anyone in the country. With a borderline lottery pick and nearly sure-fire first rounder in Charles Bassey, 3 Kentucky Mr. Basketball’s, former four star recruits, and a roster that can do anything but shoot, WKU can run 10 deep without blinking.
But the Tops are also lackadaisical at times and more maddening than a 2-legged stool. They beat Alabama, Memphis, La Tech, and Marshall, but they can also blow double digit leads or simply not show up for a half. The Tops melted down against WVU. They didn’t show up against Charlotte and fell into an overtime battle. They didn’t show up until down 19 to La Tech. They blew a 13 point lead against Old Dominion. WKU should easily have three more wins on the schedule if it weren’t for silly mistakes. WKU should be the stone cold favorite, but they’re not because they haven’t proven they can be consistent. Western also simply turns the ball over too much, despite being an experienced squad. Will WKU finally do what it should, or will it continue to underachieve? WKU should probably be the slight favorite to win C-USA, but if betters are looking at WKU, buyer beware.
Prediction
I think the computer predictions are always fascinating, but I think they are remarkably accurate in portraying in pure mathematics how difficult it is to win a championship. Any team that plays has some level of chance, but very clearly certain ones are almost certain to be the ones competing on Saturday.
That being said, I believe there will be some upsets in this bracket. I believe all but three teams could win multiple games. Do I think double digit seeds will really make it to the semis or better? Probably not, but there is ability in some of these lower level teams.
I believe none of the bottom four teams will go anywhere past the second round. One team will win and then they will lose. La Tech is rusty and has not played a good team since mid-February. Even though they haven’t lost since February 6th, I think the winner of UTEP/FAU advances past La. Tech. North Texas pulls it together enough to get to the quarters against ODU but falls short to the Monarchs. The Monarchs get a huge break and play a lower seed to make it to the championship. They accomplish that goal and come back to the championship for the second straight conference tournament.
On the other side of the bracket, UTSA beats Charlotte fairly easily, scoring too many points for Charlotte to keep up. Marshall moves on to face UAB. Marshall falls to UAB, who is playing incredible basketball. I am flipping a coin on this next prediction, but this leaves UAB and WKU. This could absolutely go either way, and truth be told, I think Andy Kennedy is a better X’s and O’s coach than Rick Stansbury. However, WKU just has too much to offer and this match-up just kind of sucks for UAB. WKU is too deep and athletic, UAB struggles shooting, and WKU dominates enough to get a tough victory. Frankly, the winner of this game, whether it is WKU, UAB, Marshall, or UTSA is my pick to win regardless.
So once again, WKU and ODU meet in the conference championship. The two just recently met on March 5th & 6th. The two split the series, with WKU taking sizeable leads in both games, only to lose the lead in both and coming back to win the second game to clinch the East Division and overall C-USA regular season title. WKU is clearly the more talented team in this season’s edition between these two teams. WKU has enough to weather the storm of winning three games in a row this season, really having an eight man rotation for the first time in the Stansbury era. WKU had an eight game winning streak before losing to ODU, so the capability is there to be consistent over time, unlike other years. Frankly, ODU has not shown a capability to win more than a few games in a row this season, so I believe the odds will even out and WKU would ultimately win in this matchup.
WKU finally reaches its potential, announcing to the conference that it is finally ready to win big. WKU wins going away this time, 79–65 over ODU.
Really, though…
There is absolutely no way to know what happens this week. Many seasons, you pretty much have an idea. But COVID, bro. Anyone that says they know what will happen is lying. The favorites haven’t even played each other. In each locker room, up to half of the conference will be a film session removed from being a complete mystery. Imagine playing three to five days in a row not knowing anything about your opponents before the night before the game.
In addition, what amounts to the 10 seed (UTEP) has a double digit win over a Power 5 competitor. Several teams have top 100 wins. Several teams would probably have been in the bubble conversation in a normal year. No team in the top ten seeds is inept.
A case could be made for a double digit number of times. Buckle up. This is the best time of the year (if it happens). Maybe last year in March, you felt like I did: Completely devastated and frustrated to be ready to enjoy March Madness and have it stripped from you the day before. To have that excitement ripped from me honestly felt like losing a major holiday. I was honestly angry about it all the way through March and frankly just sad for the kids.
But here we are. We have survived COVID. This tournament will definitely happen, barring some crazy outbreak with multiple teams. Somebody will probably forfeit or be severely hampered due to COVID in the traveling party. And look what has happened already, with FIU having to forfeit against MTSU! I hate it for them. Above all else, let’s simply enjoy it, because it didn’t even exist last year. At least basketball will be played, and a champion shall be crowned.