Boston College Predictions: What Does the Result at Home Against Toledo Tell You About WKU?
Roundtable: We ask our staff, "WKU's epic 26-21 comeback win at home against Toledo was obviously impressive. How does the result change your perspective on WKU's prospects for the rest of 2024?"
With a supercharged locker room and a 3-1 record heading on the road to a Power Five opponent, this game feels like an awesome opportunity, but it’s also probably not a game many people are banking on.
Western Kentucky found a way against a really good, well-coached team in Toledo Saturday at The Houch. In one of the weirder yet more incredible games in the history of the stadium, the Tops outscored Toledo 16-0 after a lengthy lightning delay to win by five points, 26-21.
Despite the momentum, WKU’s Week Five opponent Boston College looks better than advertised, also standing at 3-1 against a much better schedule with a comeback of its own. This one was against a pretty good Power Five program, Michigan State. They are receiving votes in both polls, sitting at 28th in the AP and a mysteriously low 33rd in the Coaches Poll.
If there is significant belief in the Topper ranks, that’s wonderful. There should be! But realistically, Boston College is the better team on their home turf, and WKU will presumably have to play flawlessly to win.
Our Roundtable Question of the Week:
WKU's epic 26-21 comeback win at home against Toledo was obviously impressive. How does the result change your perspective on WKU's prospects for the rest of 2024?
Predictions
Matt McCay (3-1)
I was the lone wolf who predicted WKU to lose against Toledo, and of course the Tops pulled a miracle and made me look like a curmudgeon that likes to be negative. But the game was much lower scoring than a lot of people thought, and the feel of the game was more like what I expected. I just didn’t expect the WKU defense to be that special. Without miracles, my prediction was going to prove true. That being said, thank God for Devonte Matthews and the rest of the Topper D, because I think this really opens up the top end of the possibilities for this season.
This win put a win at Boston College as a real possibility instead of hoping WKU doesn’t get blown out. And don’t be surprised if WKU gets blown out. As some people said in our private Towel Rack chat, this game is now complete bonus. WKU will be at minimum 3-2 heading into full-time CUSA play, which is incredible. Given that WKU has looked as good as anyone else, including Liberty, this is anybody’s CUSA to win. First of all, I think WKU is right there with Liberty and Sam Houston as the three teams that look most prepared to compete for CUSA. Somebody else might jump in, but that’s what it looks like at this point. I do think Liberty should get better as the season progresses, but WKU is not perfect, either. The defensive line is still not getting home as much as they create pressure, and that has allowed several drives to continue this season. The secondary hasn’t forced as many turnovers as expected, either. Maybe the Toledo game turned those two things around, as well.
As far as figuring out Boston College, I watched snippets of a couple of their games, including this most recent one, and I was really impressed with their athleticism. I think they have legitimate talent in all levels and all sides of the ball. This feels like a bad matchup, and given WKU’s offensive anemia against Toledo, should we really expect them to magically become elite against a more talented team with more athleticism? I doubt it. It could happen, but a bunch of turnovers this past week tells me this WKU offense still has some growth to do. Also, the running game is very inconsistent still. It’s better than some years in recent memory, but it’s not elite thus far.
Unfortunately, I’m going to see WKU drops this one, and I don’t think it will be super close. Western might click the offense in late, and I think the WKU defense could give BC some headaches. I still think the Tops get down by at least three scores at some point in this one. It may come back closer near the end, but I think this feels like a two to three score win by BC. Give me Boston College 31-Western Kentucky 20.
Alex Sherfield (4-0)
I’ll admit the only time that the doubts of losing to Toledo at home have crossed my mind was during the uninspiring start BEFORE the second half started. I was impressed at how the defense had adjusted to keep the Rockets from scoring any more points in the second half. Through the growing pains of the first few weeks, the confidence is high right now in Bowling Green for a potential CUSA (championship) berth.
After a 3-1 start, it’s no secret that the Tops are in the process of proving themselves. Saturday is another test with a potential reward of an upset. The Boston College Eagles are a pretty solid team after getting wins over Michigan State & Florida State. However, they were not the only team to tumble with an SEC opponent, almost pulling off an upset at Missouri. Through it all, they’ve dabbled into the Top 25 early this season and they are motivated to make this team a CFP-capable representative for the Atlantic Coast Conference.
I know that a lot of fans were expecting to see former Topper Kye Robichaux, he’s facing a doubtful injury status likely ruling him out for Saturday. I still would not overlook their other options at halfback in Treshaun Ward & Turbo Richard. In the last four weeks, both players are averaging over 5 yards per carry & combined for 406 yards on the ground.
The Tops’ defense would need to have a repeat of last week’s second-half effort but for all four quarters. That kind of effort is going to weigh heavily on the pass defense. Thomas Castellanos is more similar to Jalen Milroe in quarterback style but with more efficiency. Currently, he has a 10-2 passing ratio while holding his own against other Power 5 offenses. Also, along with Milroe (eerily enough) they’re among the top quarterbacks with rushing touchdowns dating back to last season.
As a result of this final non-conference showdown before returning to CUSA play, I think that this one won’t go our way. This Boston College team is too motivated and hungry to even try sleeping on the Tops. While the Eagles are just wanting to stack the resume for the postseason, the Tops are just looking to make a valiant effort.
Give me Boston College 38, Western Kentucky 21.
Jake Gary (4-0)
Devin Stewart (3-0)
Tops give it a good fight with a respectable defensive effort, but I’ve got Boston College 28-Western Kentucky 14.
David McCay (4-0)
This game statistically is very even once again. WKU passes very well and BC runs very well. The difference is the teams BC has played are from higher conferences, so they should have the slight edge. The edge for BC is massive if you look at all the prognosticators. After last weekend against Toledo, I will not count WKU out, but as I have mentioned, BC’s rushing attack is one of the best WKU will face this year.
I think this game could be low scoring and points a premium as both scoring defenses are very stingy. I will put caveats on this one because it’s so close. As I said previously, WKU must move the ball, limit three and outs offensively, and score points. BC must contain WKU’s passing attack, run the ball well and score too. My brain says WKU cannot do it two weeks in a row. My heart says Western will be able to pass, score and contain the run.
I may be nuts, but I’m going with my heart and against the odds. WKU 31 - BC 24.
Bret Combest (3-0)
Conclusion
We’ve got a little variety this week, with David calling for the upset. It’s not an unreasonable thought. Heck, WKU is only a 12.5 point underdog, so even if that prediction on paper holds fast, Boston College still can’t throw away a couple of touchdowns in mistakes.
The biggest variable has to be a couple of things: How good is Boston College? They’ve played a terrible FSU and beaten Michigan State. They did hang with a Missouri squad that will be a bubble team for the College Football Playoff. On the other sideline, how good is WKU? WKU was awful against Alabama, anemic against EKU, explosive offensively and porous defensively against MTSU, and then comes in Week Four and beats a very good Toledo team despite three turnovers by the quarterback. Are they for real or not?
We’re about to find out some things in this one.
Regardless, it’s a matchup you would never think of, but it’s juicy because both teams seem to be better than most expected.
Boston College was projected at four or five wins for the entire season, and they’re knocking on that door with eight games to play. This is a crucial momentum game, as well as a crucial win for bowl aspirations and program momentum. A loss would be devastating.
Western Kentucky is obviously fired up to play a Power Five program with good history (1940 National Champions, 15-13 bowl record, .568 all-time winning percentage), but this game is basically gravy for the Tops. WKU sits at 3-1 ahead of schedule and has enough to feel confident they can hang with anyone in Conference USA. How does the locker room approach it, though? Hopefully, “It’s gravy, baby!” is not their approach. With a bye week upcoming, this is a chance to take a shot at a big dog with the chance to recover if a couple of guys get banged up.
Regardless, Saturday at 11 AM Central time on the ACC Network, the Tops face an opportunity to get back in the Group of Five College Football Playoff conversation. Even if the Tops drop the game, they still could intimidate Conference USA opponents by putting up a good fight.
It’s football time on The Hill, and the Tops have finally shown us they might be able to play some good ball this season. This is a measuring stick game. Win or lose, we’ll have plenty to talk about after. Make sure you start your new subscription with The Towel Rack and follow all of our articles on all things WKU Athletics!
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