C-USA Hoops: Conference USA Tournament Preview
It’s Conference USA Tournament time, and the final installment of State of Conference USA has arrived. 12 men’s and 12 women’s teams…
It’s Conference USA Tournament time, and the final installment of State of Conference USA has arrived. 12 men’s and 12 women’s teams converge on Frisco, Texas from March 7–10. In this edition, we highlight each team’s chances, its path, and its outlook if it were to win the Conference USA Tournament Championship
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball in 2016–17. The women’s side was 16th. With only the conference tournament standing in the way of the eventual champions, Conference USA stands 15th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria to determine seeding and at-large selections:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
The MTSU men are the lone prospect for an at-large bid in C-USA.
Men’s Basketball
Who knows what’s going to happen this week? Conference USA men’s basketball has been extremely confusing of late. C-USA seemed to be in order, with MTSU a slight favorite no matter what, WKU second, ODU a distant third, and the rest of the pack hoping for a chance.
Then came last week: WKU gets swept, Middle finishes Senior Night with a loss, Marshall and UAB carry improbable momentum into the tournament, and in the only normal result, ODU rolls on at home.
Middle should be the favorite, but they likely face a semifinals rematch with a Marshall team that swept them in the regular season. Western has some of the conference’s best wins, but is probably the conference’s most inconsistent program. ODU has been extremely consistent, only losing to MTSU and WKU. Marshall is dangerous, and UAB is red hot of late. Good luck handicapping anyone’s chances.
The Field
1 Seed: MTSU (24–6, 16–2 C-USA) is the favorite. No question, but do they have the best path to get to a third straight C-USA championship? MTSU has only lost two games in C-USA play, but both of those were to their most likely semifinal opponent, Marshall. Middle could potentially face FIU in the quarterfinals, which took MTSU to overtime in January. Also, MTSU is seemingly in the NCAA Tournament field regardless of performance in the tournament. How will that play a factor in their mentality?
The Blue Raiders could face a few of the opponents that did give them trouble during the year, and will almost certainly have to face a team like ODU, WKU, or UAB in the championship if they get there.
MTSU’s side of the bracket: 4. Marshall, 5. UTSA, 8. FIU, 9. Southern Miss, and 12. UTEP.
2 Seed: Old Dominion (24–6, 15–3 C-USA) benefited from a schedule that saw MTSU and UAB only once, and both of those games were played at home. With travel partner Charlotte, the Monarchs may have had the easiest schedule of all of the top seeds. ODU lost only to MTSU and WKU (twice).
Despite losing to the conference elite, ODU has found itself in the second spot playing well and boasting a defensive formula capable of winning in March. Clearly, the Monarch’s biggest test could be WKU in the semifinals and Middle or Marshall in the championship.
Old Dominion’s side of the bracket: 3. WKU, 6. UAB, 7. North Texas, 10. La Tech, 11. FAU
3 Seed: WKU (22–9, 12–4 C-USA, RPI: 54, BPI: 56, SOS: 105) seemed to be building steam until a disastrous final week rendered two blowouts on the road against Middle and UAB. WKU entered the final week hoping to sweep, but needing one win to clinch the second seed. In a worst case scenario, the Toppers fell as far as possible in the worst way possible.
However, if WKU were to choose any draw in the world, it might be what they have. WKU has handily beaten every team in its side of the bracket, something no other team in the conference can claim. If WKU can overcome a likely quarterfinal against UAB, the Hilltoppers unquestionably would be favorites to make the championship game.
WKU’s side of the bracket: 2. ODU, 6. UAB, 7. North Texas, 10. La Tech, 11. FAU
4 Seed: Marshall (21–10, 12–6 C-USA) may be the most dangerous team in the conference. Explosive offensively, Marshall boasts some of the most prolific scorers in the conference. However, Marshall’s Achilles heel is its defense. Although Marshall scores 80 routinely, the Thundering Herd also gives up 80 on a regular basis.
Marshall could play spoiler for MTSU, but could they really beat MTSU three times in a row? Before Marshall could take on MTSU, the Thundering Herd must get past the winner of UTSA and UTEP, Texas school travel partners who both gave the Herd trouble in the regular season. Marshall may have the toughest road of any of the teams with byes, potentially needing to defeat three teams they lost to at least once in the regular season.
Marshall’s side of the bracket: 1. MTSU, 5. UTSA 8. FIU, 9. USM, 12. UTEP.
5 Seed: UTSA (18–13, 11–7 C-USA) was dealt a devastating blow, losing freshman sensation Jhivvan Jackson to a late-season knee injury. Otherwise, UTSA may have stolen a bye, but also would’ve been the perfect dark horse, getting hot late and giving conference favorites serious trouble in the state of Texas.
Instead, UTSA faces a hot UTEP team, then could face Marshall, Middle, and the winner of the other side of the bracket. Despite an unfortunate injury, UTSA still has plenty of talent make a run.
UTSA’s side of the bracket: 1. MTSU, 4. Marshall, 8. FIU, 9. USM, 12. UTEP.
6 Seed: UAB (19–12, 10–8 C-USA) is red hot, winning three of its final four games, including dismantling Marshall and WKU after several weeks of disappointing basketball. Now, UAB will enter the tournament feeling extremely confident.
UAB’s path seems difficult, but the Blazers have some of the best talent in the conference. A fool would sleep on a confident UAB team at this point. UAB would need to defeat FAU, WKU, and then possibly ODU and MTSU to finish the tournament. UAB has the distinct disadvantage from other favorites of playing an extra game over the tournament’s four days of play.
UAB’s side of the bracket: 2. ODU, 3. WKU, 7. North Texas, 10. La Tech, 11. FAU.
7 Seed: North Texas (15–16, 8–10 C-USA) has struggled mightily of late, losing 6 of 7 games. However, North Texas is a live play for a run because of match-ups. First, UNT played close with everyone in C-USA, only seeing two games with a scoring margin more than seven points. North Texas hung with or defeated each of its probable opponents, and perhaps an X-factor is North Texas’ proximity. North Texas generally travels well, but sitting less than an hour from Frisco is distinctly favorable to every other team.
North Texas’ side of the bracket: 2. ODU, 3. WKU, 6. UAB, 10. La Tech, 11. FAU
8 Seed: FIU (14–17, 8–10 C-USA) is a team that could blow up some brackets. Despite its low seed, FIU has had some interesting results, pushing MTSU to overtime, being competitive in most games, and boasting some pretty good talent. FIU could dash MTSU’s hopes in the quarterfinals, but could be a stumbling block for several teams in C-USA.
FIU’s side of the bracket: 1. MTSU, 4. Marshall, 5. UTSA, 9. USM, 12. UTEP
9 Seed: Southern Miss (14–17, 7–11 C-USA) has struggled of late, losing four in a row before finishing the season on a high note against a struggling La Tech squad. Southern Miss should not be a significant threat in this tournament, but stranger things have happened.
USM’s side of the bracket: 1. MTSU, 4. Marshall, 5. UTSA, 8. FIU, 12. UTEP.
10 Seed: La Tech (16–15, 7–11 C-USA) has lost four in a row. La Tech may not win a championship this year, but the talent is there to make a run. Ultimately, North Texas has not played well of late, and ODU awaits the winner between these two struggling teams. I still would not put it past La Tech to win a game or two. This must be one of the most talented 10 seeds in any conference tournament this year.
La Tech’s side of the bracket: 2. ODU, 3. WKU, 6. UAB, 7. UNT, 11. FAU.
11 Seed: FAU (12–18, 6–12 C-USA) limps into tournament play. Looking like a single digit seed for much of the season, FAU lucks out on a tiebreaker to finish ahead of UTEP. A win by Florida Atlantic would be a shock, especially with the way UAB is playing. That sure would change the complexion of this side of the bracket.
FAU’s side of the bracket: 2. ODU, 3. WKU, 6. UAB, 7. UNT, 10. La Tech.
12 Seed: UTEP (11–19, 6–12 C-USA) showed little life until late in the season, but the Miners seem to playing decently of late. With UTSA struggling without Jackson, UTEP could certainly take advantage and create an interesting match-up with Marshall.
Women’s Basketball
Western Kentucky needed to win last week to clinch the number one seed. Instead, the Lady Toppers failed offensively in the late moments, and UAB snuck into the top seed. Despite the struggles in the final week, WKU is no less than a co-favorite, and no team has proven itself invincible of late.
Middle Tennessee lurks as a dangerous four seed, garnering a bye in the last game of the season. Any of the top eight could realistically win the entire tournament with no dominant side proving itself as the runaway favorite.
The Seeds
1 Seed: UAB (24–5, 13–3 C-USA) snuck out with a regular season championship, despite needing WKU to choke against mediocre competition. UAB has shown incredible consistency, winning over 80 percent of its games. However, the Blazers have had momentary lapses, losing to also-rans at critical junctures. Despite the one seed, UAB may face the toughest side of the bracket, potentially facing perennial powers USM, MTSU, and WKU in order to win a C-USA Championship.
UAB’s side of the bracket: 4. MTSU, 5. Rice, 8. Southern Miss, 9. UTEP, 12. Old Dominion.
2 Seed: WKU (21–8, 12–4 C-USA) choked away an opportunity to come into conference tournament the prohibitive favorite. Instead, questions loom about an early exit. As defending champions, the Lady Toppers should still be considered one of the two favorites, but very little separates most of the conference. Both WKU squads seem to have dream draws. All of the teams WKU lost to are on the other side of the bracket, meaning WKU should be heavily favored all the way to the championship game.
WKU’s side of the bracket: 3. Louisiana Tech, 6. Charlotte, 7. FAU, 10. UTSA, 11. North Texas
3 Seed: La Tech (19–10, 10–6 C-USA) did what it needed to, defeating Rice in its final game and is rewarded with the third seed. La Tech finds itself on a winnable side of the bracket. WKU would obviously be the favorite, but with recent struggles, the Lady Techsters could find themselves in prime position to steal one from WKU if the opportunity presented itself.
La Tech’s side of the bracket: 2. WKU, 6. Charlotte, 7. FAU, 10. UTSA, 11. North Texas
4 Seed: Middle Tennessee (18–11, 10–6 C-USA) has come from way down to steal a bye in the C-USA Tournament. MTSU is now on even footing with the other favorites, needing only three victories to hoist a trophy. The Blue Raiders must be considered as one of the favorites to win in Frisco. MTSU is on the tougher side of the bracket, needing to defeat the winner of Rice and ODU, probably UAB, and most likely WKU, which has swept the Blue Raiders by double digits this year.
MTSU’s side of the bracket: 1. UAB, 5. Rice, 8. USM, 9. UTEP, 12. ODU
5 Seed: Rice (20–8, 10–6 C-USA) was a shoe-in for a bye and was in a three team race for first a few weeks ago with WKU and UAB. All of a sudden, Rice finds itself needing four wins in four days. Rice now needs to win its opening round game against ODU, beat Middle, likely take on UAB, and then beat WKU.
Rice’s side of the bracket: 1. UAB, 4. MTSU, 8. USM, 9. UTEP, 12. ODU.
6 Seed: Charlotte (14–15, 10–6 C-USA) has finished strong. Despite a weak overall record, Charlotte is certainly one of the top favorites this week. Charlotte should certainly be optimistic for a semifinals appearance. With WKU struggling, surely any of the teams on that side feel they can hang with the Toppers.
Charlotte’s Side of the Bracket: 2. WKU, 3. Louisiana Tech, 7. FAU, 10. UTSA, 11. North Texas.
7 Seed: FAU (13–14, 7–9 C-USA) has been winning of late. FAU has hopped from nearly out of the field to right in the middle with a chance. Should FAU beat UTSA, WKU stands in their way. WKU will need to shake off cobwebs from the previous week, though. If FAU found a way past the Lady Toppers, all bets are off. Anyone could take this half of the bracket.
FAU’s side of the bracket: 2. WKU, 3. Louisiana Tech, 6. Charlotte, 10. UTSA, 11. North Texas.
8 Seed: Southern Miss (15–14, 7–9 C-USA) may not be consistent enough in 2018, but their style of pressure lends itself to inconsistent results. This past week, Southern Miss defeated WKU and followed it up with a loss at home to FIU on Senior Night. With such parity, USM could certainly make a run and even win the conference championship.
USM’s side of the bracket: 1. UAB, 4. MTSU, 5. Rice, 9. UTEP, 12. ODU
9 Seed: UTEP (16–13, 7–9 C-USA) found its mojo enough to salvage a single digit seed. With an excellent non-conference record, UTEP struggled early in C-USA play. The Miners ultimately found ways to win games late in the season.
UTEP’s side of the bracket: 1. UAB, 4. MTSU, 5. Rice, 8. USM, 12. ODU.
10 Seed: UTSA (8–20, 6–10 C-USA) did find its way into this field, but this team is surely not capable of making a run. UTSA has a tough road, needing to defeat multiple teams that took them down in the regular season.
UTSA’s side of the bracket: 2. WKU, 3. La Tech, 6. Charlotte, 7. FAU, 11. North Texas.
11 Seed: North Texas (15–11, 6–8 C-USA) squeaked its way into the field. Toting an overall winning record, North Texas could certainly find a way against an evenly matched field of 12.
12 Seed: Old Dominion (8–22, 6–10 C-USA) finally dropped down to reality, slotting into the final spot in C-USA. ODU has shown some strength this year, but beating Rice alone would be a tough ask. The comes Middle Tennessee if they happen to win Wednesday.
ODU’s side of the bracket: 1. UAB, 4. MTSU, 5. Rice, 8. USM, 9. UTEP