C-USA Hoops: State of Conference USA — December 12
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I men’s and women’s basketball. Later in the season, we’ll look at possible NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball last year. The women’s side was 16th. If Conference USA is to be respected nationally, every team must do its part.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, and 64 in the women’s tourney. There are 32 conferences in Division I, and they each receive one automatic bid for their champion. Therefore, 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s teams receive “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at several criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
and the “eye test”.
Men’s Basketball
Conference USA men’s basketball has taken massive strides since March. Instead of standing 23rd in conference RPI, C-USA is 17th in 2017–18, including seven teams in the top 200 and five in the first 122.
A C-USA program has had at least one vote in the polls every week thus far.
Overall, Conference USA had a wonderful week from last Tuesday to this Monday, going 16–6 as a conference with several Top 100 wins. On Tuesday and Wednesday, C-USA lost three of four games, all currently considered bad losses.
C-USA looks to have half of the conference in contention for a C-USA title, while the others don’t seem to quite have it together yet.
Contenders
Regardless of their next few non-conference games, Middle Tennessee (7–1, RPI: 13, BPI: 53, RV/RV) will enter conference play as the clear favorite and would be the most likely C-USA team to be eligible for an at-large bid. Middle beat Vanderbilt and Ole Miss within the past week, and they received a few votes in the polls for their efforts. They take on Auburn Saturday in Birmingham and they still have a strong Diamond Head Classic field on the pre-Christmas menu. All told, MTSU has a 7–1 record against a Top 25 Strength of Schedule (SOS).
Old Dominion (7–3, RPI: 68, BPI: 78, NR/NR) has quietly put together a solid resume, with a couple of top-100 caliber wins and losing to three decent mid-major opponents. ODU may not have any wins that raise eyebrows, but they don’t have any losses that do that, either.
Western Kentucky (6–4, RPI: 75, BPI: 88, NR/NR) looked like it had margin to spare with huge wins against SMU and Purdue, but Sunday’s loss to Ohio and Wednesday’s gut shot at Wisconsin really hit the Toppers’ hopes hard. In addition, Missouri State is looking like a shaky loss now, and WKU’s remaining non-conference hope for a quality win is at home against Belmont. To this point, WKU is the only Conference USA program with multiple wins against teams currently getting votes in the polls, and has faced the second-toughest schedule in C-USA to this point (31st).
Louisiana Tech (7–3, RPI: 93, BPI: 98, NR/NR) has faced the 55th toughest SOS and has come out looking none the worse for wear. The Bulldogs’ only two losses were against likely NCAA Tournament teams. However, La Tech has three more non-conference opponents, and they likely need to win all three of those to really have a chance at an at-large bid.
Dark Horses
Florida Atlantic (6–3, RPI: 122, BPI: 196, NR/NR) is suddenly in the picture because of their impressive win against Florida Gulf Coast. The Owls still have Texas Tech and Minnesota the week before Christmas, but FAU may prove to be the most surprising team in C-USA this season.
Marshall (7–3, RPI: 174, BPI: 199, NR/NR) has played one of the weakest schedules in Division I (314th) but is still offensively talented, returns much of their firepower from last year, and could beat anyone on a good night from behind the arc.
UAB (6–4, RPI: 193, BPI: 109, NR/NR) looks like a dark horse in C-USA. Although they haven’t overwhelmed, they have four close losses and have only once scored below 70 points.
UTEP (3–6, RPI: 213, BPI: 179, NR/NR) pulled out a shocker on Washington State at home Saturday, or they would firmly be farther down the list. Since UTEP is hosting the C-USA Tournament, the fact they can beat a team the quality of WSU on their home court is eye-opening, and it means they could possibly make a run in March.
Not a Chance
UTSA’s (6–5, RPI: 247, BPI: 205, NR/NR) record looks nice, but two of those wins are against non-Division I opponents, and the Roadrunners have played one Power 5 program thus far.
Keep in mind FIU (5–5, RPI: 291, BPI: 332, NR/NR) had two overtime losses early in the season (albeit against Stetson and Elon), but the Golden Panthers still aren’t going to be able to separate themselves in Conference USA. They may surprise a few teams, but they will still finish well behind most of the contenders and dark horses.
North Texas (6–5, RPI: 257, BPI: 257, NR/NR) had the schedule to be impressive, but too many squandered results show this team is not ready to take the next step and contend for the C-USA title.
Southern Miss (6–4, RPI: 259, BPI: 285, NR/NR) had a nice win against Troy Sunday and defeated Alabama A&M Wednesday to launch them well inside the Top 300 in the country. They have opportunities to prove themselves against Florida State and Mississippi State, but will they? I would think not.
Rice (2–7, RPI: 304, BPI: 326, NR/NR) has really been a disappointment. They have mostly blowout losses, and their two wins are against a non-Division I program and Northwestern State.
Charlotte (3–6, RPI: 331, BPI: 290, NR/NR) is probably the most disappointing team in C-USA so far. Picked to finish eighth before the season began, Charlotte is a cellar dweller with no chance to prove anything before conference play.
Overall State of Men’s Basketball: Favorable
Conference USA has five programs that realistically could finish as Top 100 teams this year. C-USA barely had any presence in the Top 100 throughout last year. The conference is six spots better in the RPI than last year, and amazingly, the conference should improve its schedule strength before beginning C-USA play.
MTSU looks like it could be a lock for the tournament if it could make some noise in Hawaii and have a decent time in Conference USA. WKU has marquee wins, although that Ohio loss and a heartbreaker at Wisconsin may bite them later. La Tech, FAU and ODU have positioned themselves nicely, but are most likely bound for the NIT unless they win C-USA. Even the bottom of the conference has shown life in the past few weeks.
C-USA men’s basketball seems to be on the unquestionable uptick, but losses in the past few days have put a damper on most at-large hopes.
Women’s Basketball
Conference USA women’s basketball seems to be on a different trajectory than the men. With only one team in the Top 100 in RPI, C-USA ranks 19th of 32 conferences, as opposed to 16th in 2016–17. Despite proximity in computer rankings, the eye test reveals a two team race in C-USA between WKU and MTSU with Rice surprising everyone leading the best of the rest.
The Lone Wolf
WKU (6–3, RPI: 31, NR/NR) is the only team in C-USA with any legitimate opportunity at an at-large bid. All three of WKU’s losses are to Top 100 Power 5 clubs, two of which are currently ranked, and one of which WKU took to overtime on the road (Iowa). Most impressively, WKU can claim the lone loss for a #16 Missouri team. WKU still has two Top 50 opportunities in Toledo and Ball State to finish off their non-conference schedule.
The Clear Second
Let’s be 100% honest here: MTSU (5–3, RPI: 117, NR/NR) is a co-front runner with WKU for the C-USA title, but currently, their numbers don’t reflect that. They had opportunities against some middling Power 5’s and couldn’t score enough. Also, Middle looked abysmal against #3 Louisville Saturday, mustering 26 points. If that hadn’t happened, I would have had Middle toe-to-toe with Western in this edition. Bottom line is Middle needs to show that they can score, or they will not beat WKU. Middle is yet to score 72 points on the season, while WKU is averaging 77.5 points a game.
Dark Horses
There is no question Rice (6–2, RPI: 172, NR/RV) has been impressive in the early going, winning against some good competition and hanging right with Top 100 Power 5 opponents on the road. A few coaches took notice of Rice’s efforts, giving them four votes in the most recent USA Today Coaches Poll.
UAB (7–2, RPI: 128, NR/NR) and North Texas (7–2, RPI: 199, NR/NR) were picked 7th and 8th, respectively, in the preseason predictions and are tied for the best overall records in C-USA. Both have had close calls against Top 100 Indiana, and their other losses were by a single possession.
UTEP (5–3, RPI: 179, NR/NR) has had some close calls itself, having two of its losses by single digits. Its other loss is a blowout to undefeated New Mexico, so there’s no shame there. UTEP looks like a perfect dark horse, especially come tournament time, when they get to sleep in their own beds and play in El Paso for a championship.
Louisiana Tech (6–4, RPI: 190, NR/NR) and Southern Miss (6–3, RPI: 182, NR/NR) have both shown flashes in the young season, but have yet to make their marks. La Tech does have a Top 100 win against Penn State, but by and large, these two will give WKU, MTSU and Rice some trouble but not seriously threaten the three best teams.
Disappointing
Charlotte (3–6, RPI: 180), FAU (3–4, RPI: 236), Marshall (3–6, RPI: 284), FIU (2–7, RPI: 336), UTSA (2–7, RPI: 242), and Old Dominion (1–8, RPI: 339) have all been extremely disappointing. Of all these, Charlotte could still be considered a dark horse, especially with their talent and recent success. However, they along with all but one of these other schools (FAU) will definitely have a losing record going into conference play.
Overall State of Women’s Basketball: Bitterly Disappointing
C-USA women’s basketball started out like a dream, with a ranked win and several undefeated teams a couple of weeks into the season. The past few weeks have been downright depressing, seeing every one of those teams lose at least two games and missing realistic opportunities for important wins. WKU is the lone at-large hope for the conference, and frankly, their resume is porous, as well. Without other quality teams in conference, they must win their last four games before conference play begins.
There are several teams with talent, but one prevailing theme seems to be a lack of scoring ability across the conference. Middle is averaging less than 60 a game, and several other teams are barely mustering 60 points. WKU seems to be one of the few that can light it up, and they have nearly given up 70 ppg defensively.
As a whole, Conference USA has some opportunities to improve their standing nationally, but with a few weeks left before a conference pecking order is established, C-USA must make its move. If a men’s or women’s basketball team wants to have options at the end of the year, its conference generally must help its case on some level. After all, one of the main criteria the selection committees look at is conference strength.