C-USA Hoops: State of Conference USA — December 28
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament (if applicable), conference dynamics, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. Later in the season, we’ll look at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball last year. The women’s side was 16th. As the non-conference portion of the schedule comes into focus, Conference USA stands 17th of 32 on both sides.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
In this edition, we’ll get in-depth on who may be a favorite, contender, dark horse, and pretender with a little Christmas spice.
Men’s Basketball
Conference USA is very clearly much improved from 2016–17. Without question, most programs are as good or better than last year. C-USA looks like a formidable gauntlet for even the greatest of favorites, and no team has looked hopeless. Any realistic at-large hopes may have been dashed with recent setbacks, but several programs have had a supreme non-conference season.
Home Alone
Despite some improvement from its conference mates, Middle Tennessee (8–4, RPI: 37, BPI: 53, SOS: 19) is still the favorite heading into C-USA play. MTSU’s four losses have come against Top 75 competition and the eye test is impressive as well. Middle could still shoot for an at-large if the opportunity presents itself, but at-large talk for C-USA should pretty much be curbed at this point.
Player to Watch: Giddy Potts
Home Alone 2
Western Kentucky (8–5, RPI: 88, BPI: 72, SOS: 50) was perhaps one of the greatest variables in Conference USA heading into the season. They’re now a known quantity, having earned respect against quality competition despite having no more than eight players available through their first 13 games. Not to sound like a broken record, but adding Josh Anderson and Moustapha Diagne would change the entire picture for the Hilltoppers and Conference USA. WKU would go from a contender to a co-favorite quickly.
Player to Watch: Justin Johnson
Louisiana Tech (9–4, RPI: 126, BPI: 105, SOS: 150) has really had some close calls this season. Three of their four losses are by four points or less, so the Bulldogs are certainly a force to be reckoned with. La Tech always has sneaky athleticism and length. The Dogs boast significant depth, and they don’t have a player playing more than 29 minutes per game.
Player to Watch: Jacobi Boykins
Old Dominion (9–3, RPI: 95, BPI: 71, SOS: 247) has the best non-conference record in C-USA and plays typical Monarch basketball; hard-nosed defense with efficient offense. Despite a fairly soft schedule, ODU has come out looking solid, regardless of competition.
Player to Watch: B.J. Stith
Home Alone 3
UAB (9–4, RPI: 244, BPI: 119, SOS: 335) is a program of great tradition and is always in the running for a C-USA title. The Blazers will find a way to be in the mix, especially with Chris Coakley nearly averaging a double-double and shooting 87% from the line. This is a tough year to be trying to get back on track in C-USA, though. There are landmines everywhere.
Player to Watch: Chris Coakley
Marshall (9–4, RPI: 134, BPI: 171, SOS: 260) has played a soft schedule. They may be better than some of these other teams in C-USA, but they’re not battle tested and they haven’t proven much of anything. The other question is, “Can they stop anyone?” They may score nearly 90 points per game but they also give up well over 80 defensively. Interestingly, Marshall has three guys averaging 19 points or more, accounting for nearly three-fouths of their scoring on the year. Do they have the depth and defensive prowess to compete for a C-USA title?
Player to Watch: Jon Elmore
Lost in New York
Southern Miss (7–6, RPI: 220, BPI: 288, SOS: 193) has been inconsistent in 2017–18, and the record has benefited from some non-Division I opponents. Southern Miss will probably run in the middle of the pack this year.
Player to Watch: Cortez Edwards
North Texas (7–6, RPI: 192, BPI: 225, SOS: 198) has some good young talent and, despite an average number on the SOS, has played some solid competition and will be battle tested heading into C-USA play. They could certainly rock the top of the standings a few times this year, but they shouldn’t come close to the top four.
Player to Watch: Roosevelt Smart
UTSA (7–6, RPI: 242, BPI: 201, SOS: 281) brings a balanced attack to the table, with several players scoring between seven and 15 points per outing. UTSA could be a dangerous team come March, especially if some young talent blossoms.
Player to Watch: Keaton Wallace
UTEP (5–7, RPI: 273, BPI: 211, SOS: 186) already beat Washington State on their home floor, so I would not be surprised if the Miners won some games, especially with their geographical advantage at home. No other C-USA campus is within hundreds of miles of El Paso, so teams will come in worn out from long flights and/or bus rides.
Player to Watch: Keith Frazier
Charlotte (4–7, RPI: 291, BPI: 269, SOS: 273) has already fired its coach, and is off to an abysmal start despite expectations to be an outside factor in the conference picture. Playing a weak schedule, Charlotte has struggled to find its identity, but has shown signs of life of late.
Player to Watch: Jon Davis
FAU (6–6, RPI: 188, BPI: 230, SOS: 100) caught my attention when they beat Florida Gulf Coast. However, they haven’t done much else. If FAU can show they belong in C-USA at all, that would be a nice improvement for them. They have not been a real factor in a conference race in years.
Player to Watch: Ronald Delph
FIU (6–7, RPI: 316, BPI: 328, SOS: 300) features a strong starting lineup with multiple 15+ point scorers. However, there’s not much else to the team. Although some other people play, there is very little depth. FIU’s record looks much better than they are because of several non-Division I opponents.
Player to Watch: Eric Lockett
Rice (3–10, RPI: 304, BPI: 326, SOS: 179) has had a tough go from the start of this season. However, they have played a decent schedule and have not looked completely outclassed all season. No loss has been a drubbing, and several close losses make this team look worse than it is. However, Rice is still not going to crawl too far out of the basement with such a talented league this year.
Player to Watch: Connor Cashaw
Overall State of C-USA Men’s Basketball: Juicy
There are so many variables to this season on the men’s side. No team looks horrible, so any night could produce shocking upsets. Heck, 10 of 14 teams have .500 or better records, and probably half of the programs feel like they could win the conference if things fell their way. The overall quality is better, and the conference is certainly deeper than any time in recent memory.
Women’s Basketball
The women’s basketball side of Conference USA has been interesting. Give or take, the women have performed on par with last year, overall. There is a definite have-or-have not flavor this year, with four teams barely competitive, a couple unknowns around .500, and the top of the conference looking impressive.
Keep in mind there are still some non-conference games this week that could indicate a hierarchy for C-USA. The ladies don’t start conference play until next Wednesday, when North Texas and La Tech table a spicy hors d’oeuvres for the rest of Conference USA in Ruston.
Home Alone
WKU (8–4, RPI: 26, SOS: 25) is the only team in C-USA with any remote prayer of an at-large bid. All four of WKU’s losses are to Top 100 clubs, two of which are currently ranked, and one of which WKU took to overtime on the road (Iowa). Ball State is currently undefeated. Most impressively, WKU can claim the conference’s lone Top 25 win against #16 Missouri. The Lady Toppers lead the conference in scoring by a significant margin. WKU’s only real question mark is defense, giving up nearly 70 points per outing.
Player to Watch: Tashia Brown
Home Alone 2
I still think MTSU (7–5, RPI: 133, SOS: 217) is a co-front runner with WKU for the C-USA title, but they have certainly been underwhelming in the first part of the season and look comparable to most of the second tier teams in C-USA. They have really struggled to score this year, averaging well under 60 points per game. However, they’re only giving up 56 points, which is incredible. Middle needs to show that they can score, or they will not beat WKU and will struggle against everyone else. Middle is yet to score more than 73 points in any game, while WKU is averaging 77. We’ll know January 4 when Middle comes to Bowling Green.
Player to Watch: Abbey Sissom
There is no question Rice (9–2, RPI: 164, SOS: 343) has been impressive, winning against some good competition and hanging right with Top 100 Power 5 opponents on the road. The Owls have taken advantage of a soft back end of their non-conference and reeled off four straight, and win by an average of 11 points.
Player to Watch: Erica Ogwumike
Despite being picked seventh in the preseason, UAB (10–2, RPI: 132, SOS: 321) has been solid. They haven’t played any blue bloods, but they have gotten the job done against the schedule in front of them. UAB is a solid all-around team, winning most games by double digits, and their two losses are by a total of 10 points.
Player to Watch: Rachael Childress
Keeping the Change
North Texas (8–3, RPI: 153, SOS: 272) was picked eighth in the preseason poll and has really done well for itself in the early going. They had a close call against Top 100 Indiana, and their other losses were by a single possession. A tough loss at Illinois-Chicago really makes the team look worse than it is.
Player to Watch: Terriell Bradley
UTEP (7–4, RPI: 131, SOS: 190) has had some close calls as well, losing two by single digits. Another loss is a blowout to undefeated New Mexico, so there’s no shame there. UTEP looks like a perfect dark horse, especially come tournament time, when they get to sleep in their own beds and play in El Paso for a championship.
Player to Watch: Tamara Seda
Louisiana Tech (8–4, RPI: 191, SOS: 275) does have a Top 100 win against Penn State, but has played a weaker schedule overall and does not play consistently enough to run with the big dogs. La Tech is a proud program, so never count them out.
Player to Watch: Alexus Malone
Southern Miss (7–5, RPI: 187, SOS: 231) has shown flashes in the young season, but has yet to make its mark. Southern Miss is always pretty good and finds a way to make deep runs, but they haven’t sealed the deal in the biggest moments.
Player to Watch: Jayla King
Filthy Animals
Charlotte (3–8, RPI: 195, SOS: 62) really has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire conference, and they have shown a little bit of fight lately, losing their past three by a combined five points. However, they’ve still been incredibly disappointing. Charlotte could fly off the rails or come on like gangbusters.
Player to Watch: Laia Raventos
FAU (4–5, RPI: 202, SOS: 202) has had a couple of double-overtime games of late, and has shown some fight, winning two of their past three. FAU has held their own against some good competition, but will not factor in the race this year.
Player to Watch: Sasha Cedeno
Marshall (5–7, RPI: 317, SOS: 329) has looked much better of late, winning two in a row and staying with good competition. Maybe Marshall is turning it on at the right time. However, two recent wins don’t mask a sub .500 record against a horrible schedule.
Player to Watch: Shayna Gore
A few years ago, FIU (2–10, RPI: 326, SOS: 255) was a decent team in the Sun Belt. Now they’re drowning in C-USA. With a 2–10 record, there’s no question they’re not very good, but they have had several losses by single digits. This team is better than their record.
Player to Watch: Kiandre’a Pound
UTSA (2–9, RPI: 293, SOS: 149) has played a bit of a tougher schedule, but has gotten blown out several times. Although they have shown ability, they’re still struggling to score and stop opponents.
Player to Watch: Crystal Chidomere
Old Dominion (1–11, RPI: 331, SOS: 245) has just been awful all season. There’s no way to put sprinkles on this caved in ginger bread house. However, despite the horrible record, they only lose by 15 points a game. Maybe there’s more there than meets the eye, but this is bitterly disappointing for a proud program.
Player to Watch: Odegua Oigbokie
Overall State of Women’s Basketball: Like December 26th of every year
Much like the day after Christmas, Conference USA has left us unsure of what we have and wishing we had more information. There’s one present that’s looking good, but the rest we’re not sure about. Western Kentucky is obviously good, but how good is everyone else?
MTSU was supposed to be a co-favorite and they’ve looked discombobulated offensively. Rice and UAB have been a pleasant surprise, but haven’t played anyone. Charlotte is always one of the better teams and looks like a train wreck.