C-USA Hoops: State of Conference USA — December 5
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I men’s and women’s basketball.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball last year. The women’s side was 16th. If Conference USA is to be respected nationally, every team must do its part.
Any win or loss by any team in Conference USA changes the picture. Any upset or terrible loss affects C-USA’s chances for an at-large or moving up a seed line in the NCAA Tournament.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, and 64 in the women’s tourney. There are 32 conferences in Division I, and they each receive one automatic bid for their champion. Therefore, 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s teams receive “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at several criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
and the “eye test”.
Men’s Basketball
Conference USA men’s basketball has become a strange dichotomy between the “haves” and the “have-nots.” Several teams look like they’re competing for at-large bids, and then the entire rest of the league has been terrible so far.
Haves
These teams are seriously competing for at-large bids. If all of these continue looking like this, there is a huge opportunity for the conference at the end of the year.
MTSU (5–1, RPI: 6) seems to be as good as advertised. They look as talented as most “major” schools and have proven it on the national stage. The Blue Raiders’ non-conference schedule is sneaky good. Middle sports quiality-looking wins against Florida Gulf Coast (twice), Murray State and Tennessee State. Middle’s lone loss came to Belmont, perennial mid-major power. MTSU still has three games against middling SEC opponents and Princeton before starting C-USA play.
Louisiana Tech (6–1, RPI: 16) has been quite impressive in the early going, as well. The Bulldogs nearly tied a ranked Alabama team at the buzzer last Wednesday and have taken care of business against decent mid-major competition so far. La Tech still has plenty of opportunity, with Stephen F. Austin and Texas on the December slate.
WKU (6–2, RV/NR, RPI: 34) may have made the biggest statements so far, and it finally showed in the polls Monday when the Associated Press threw two votes at the Hilltoppers. WKU has some high quality wins, and their two losses so far are against quality opponents by small margins. WKU has little room for improvement before conference play, facing four of five remaining non-conference opponents outside of the Top 100 in the RPI. WKU is winning by an average of 11 points per game with eight players available.
Old Dominion (5–3, RPI: 65) was projected to be one of the dark horses in C-USA, and they have proven to be a pretty good team. Despite zero scheduled games against Power 5 schools, ODU has a decent resume with a few solid mid-major wins and three early losses that shouldn’t hurt them in the long run. They have no other grand opportunity in their non-conference portion, so they need to sweep the rest of this section of the season to really go after an at-large opportunity. ODU could make their at-large hay in conference play.
The Have Nots
These teams could win almost every other game on their schedule and still not make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference championship. Just look at the numbers: If Conference USA does not get an at-large, it will certainly be because the bottom ten teams of the conference just aren’t good enough.
FAU (4–3, RPI: 175) may be better than their RPI indicates, and its Strength of Schedule (SOS) will improve with FGCU, Texas Tech and Minnesota on the docket. However, the Owls could help C-USA with a shocker or two. Technically, they could still make it, but come on. Doubtful.
UTEP (2–6, RPI: 232) is a strange case. They have two wins, and one of them is against Top 100 New Mexico State. Three close losses suggest higher quality, but also show squandered opportunities.
North Texas (4–5, RPI: 243) sure has the schedule, but just isn’t good enough to make it count. They’ve scheduled several future bubble teams, but haven’t been able to execute consistently.
UTSA (5–5, RPI: 257) has been inconsistent against a weak schedule. Too many bad losses really drag down a team that could run right with most teams in the conference.
Marshall (5–3, RPI: 263) and UAB (5–3, RPI: 268) are perfect examples of teams capable of playing a stronger schedule and just didn’t. They are some of the better teams in the conference, but do not put themselves in position each year with their weak non-conference schedules.
FIU (4–4, RPI: 292), Rice (2–6, RPI: 301), Southern Miss (4–4, RPI: 308), and Charlotte (3–4, RPI: 310) have all have been very average against below average competition.
State of the conference: Mixed
Very clearly, Conference USA men’s basketball has a serious scheduling issue. Some teams have a strong enough schedule to give the conference a chance to showcase what it can do. However, teams like FIU scheduling three non-Division I opponents do nothing to help the conference have a chance in the postseason.
This year, Conference USA has four or five teams that could legitimately compete for an at-large, and then has nine or ten programs that have done nothing to help the conference in the slightest.
Women’s Basketball
Conference USA women’s basketball took a hit in the past seven days. As of Tuesday morning, The conference went 12–15 overall in the past week, including losses in all of the crucial match-ups against quality opponents and some horrible losses. C-USA must take opportunities when provided, and its programs must not lose to some of the worst teams in the country.
WKU (4–3, RPI: 43) has the best current profile in Conference USA to this point. Their three losses came against teams in the Top 103 in the country, including two in the Top 12. WKU also posted two Top 100 wins, as well. WKU gets two more chances against quality opponents before conference play in Toledo and Ball State.
UTEP (5–1, RPI: 75) has been incredibly impressive, beating Arkansas at home, and only losing one of seven games. The Miners have no real opportunity for enhancing the resume before conference play, but they certainly have been impressive in the early going.
I said this last week, but Rice (5–2, RPI: 130) has been incredibly impressive so far. They lost by six to Texas A&M on November 29, nearly beat Kansas and took care of business against other inferior opponents. Of the programs in C-USA, the Owls have been the biggest surprise.
Southern Miss (6–2, RPI: 146) has played a decent schedule that contains some more opportunities to show their class against Ole Miss and Georgia Tech before conference play starts.
MTSU (4–2, RPI: 157) has had a brutal schedule thus far, and their current RPI ranking is flukish, having lost two games against quality opponents by a total of 12 points. MT has opportunities against Top 5 Louisville, Troy, undefeated USC and 20th ranked Kentucky, who have a combined two losses on the season. MTSU has the schedule to hope for an at-large.
La Tech (4–4, RPI: 161) has played another tough schedule, facing four Power 5 opponents in eight games. The Lady Techsters have little opportunity to improve a resume until conference play, however.
North Texas (6–1, RPI: 166) is two points from being undefeated to start the year. UNT nearly beat Kansas State at home in November, and has another opportunity against a major conference school in Indiana Tuesday. UNT’s struggle is overall schedule strength, not facing any opponents that could provide true marquee wins.
Charlotte (3–5, RPI: 199) look like a second tier C-USA team so far. They have had some close calls, but they look like another decent program despite a slow start in the non-conference.
UAB (6–1, RPI: 210) has also been impressive, but has not played a quality opponent besides Indiana, who they lost to by eight at home. UAB has very little opportunity in the coming weeks to find quality wins.
UTSA (2–6, RPI: 223) has played a pretty solid schedule, but has no reason to be 2–6 to this point besides just not being very good.
FAU (3–4, RPI: 260) with bad losses to BGSU and Grand Canyon, FAU has shown they are not the class of C-USA this year.
Marshall (2–5, RPI: 281) is better than their numbers indicate. They have had several close losses, and have performed well against some presumably better competition. They have one more serious opportunity to make a statement against Florida before conference play begins.
Old Dominion (1–7, RPI: 300) has played a tough schedule, but is clearly not going to finish near the top of the conference.
FIU (2–7, RPI: 320) is also a program that has had some moderate success in some recent years, but it’s not a good year for the Golden Panthers.
State of the Conference: Below Average
What a difference a few weeks make. Conference USA women’s basketball went from looking like one of the best mid-major conferences of 2017–18 to very average very quickly. With only two teams in the Top 100 and several programs near the bottom, Conference USA seems to have stalled or even taken a step backwards from 2016–17.
Although MTSU hasn’t shown it just yet, WKU and MTSU are definitely the class of the conference on the women’s side, with Rice, UTEP, and Southern Miss looking fairly dangerous.