C-USA Hoops: State of Conference USA-January 11
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. Later in the season, we’ll look at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball last year. The women’s side was 16th. Now fully into conference play, Conference USA stands 17th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
Men’s Basketball
It has been a fascinating start to Conference USA play on the men’s side. Perhaps the biggest changes to conference dynamics in recent days have come from huge pieces coming and going. Louisiana Tech lost Jalen Harris in late December, and they have never looked the same since. Western Kentucky has been impressive in the first half of the season, but with the eligibility of 4-star recruit Josh Anderson, WKU’s 112–87 performance at Marshall was unbelievable and put the entire conference on notice. Now news has come out that WKU’s other former four star, Moustapha Diagne, has also been cleared.
Recently Unbelievable
Conference USA was abuzz this week when WKU (11–5, 3–0 C-USA, RPI: 51, BPI: 55, SOS: 34) went on the road to Marshall and returned with one of the most comprehensive road victories in recent memory. WKU hung 61 on Marshall in the first half, Darius Thompson had a triple-double, and shot 62.5% from the field with 70 points in the paint. After a ridiculous wait over a high school credit, the NCAA deemed freshman Josh Anderson eligible, and he immediately dropped in 16 points with some highlight reel dunks. Now Moustapha Diagne is eligible, and WKU finally has an eligible big man coming off of the bench. Yes, that’s correct. They’ve had two true post players available all year until Thursday at ODU. Wow.
By the word of several conference publications (and Towel Rack) after Marshall, WKU has announced itself as the new (albeit slight) favorite. Where does WKU stand now with its extra depth?
Other Favorites
Defending conference champion MTSU (11–4, 3–0 C-USA, RPI: 34, BPI: 53, SOS: 50) still should be the favorite on paper. MTSU has been impressive once again this year, and Giddy Potts still has not been his best. 6'7" Nick King is averaging 23 points a game and is a double-double threat on a nightly basis. They are plenty dangerous. However, MTSU has only survived in C-USA play, winning their games by an average of four, including an overtime victory on the road at FIU. Surely Potts and Co. should really click at some point, and they should be extremely dangerous in March.
Old Dominion (12–3, 3–0 C-USA, RPI: 90, BPI: 61, SOS: 276) has quietly gone about its business this year. The Monarchs have played a weak schedule, but any team that has only lost three games at the halfway point and plays defense like they do could beat anyone on the right night. ODU has not played any of the elite teams in the conference, but has taken care of its business. ODU will be much more of a known quantity when they face WKU and Marshall at home this week. Are the Monarchs a contender or a pretender? Stay tuned.
Dark Horses
Marshall (11–5, 2–1 C-USA, RPI: 141, BPI: 171, SOS: 229) has looked as good as WKU of late, and then Saturday happened. After similar results against common opponents EKU, La Tech, and Southern Miss, WKU completely dominated the Herd from the opening tip. Whether Marshall is a true contender depends largely on defense and health of Adjin Penava, the nation’s leading shot blocker who went down early in the WKU game. They score nearly 90 a game, but also give up well over 80. Giving up that much in college basketball forces them to simply outscore their opponents. That’s a dangerous game to play night in and night out, but there is no question they could beat anyone in the country with their offensive ability.
After a couple of years off from real contention, UAB (11–5, 2–1 C-USA, RPI: 206, BPI: 103, SOS: 313) looks like it could be back. Chris Cokley could be the best player in the conference. UAB looked fine against FAU and FIU, and most notably boxed toe-to-toe with MTSU at home for 40 minutes on December 30 in a three point loss.
Stagnant
North Texas (9–8, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 190, BPI: 219, SOS: 175) survived in its first week, winning two games on the road against bad teams by one point, and its luck ran out, losing at home by a total of five points, including a three point loss against one of the conference favorites, ODU. North Texas is a young team, so they may still be finding themselves at this point. They could force an upset or two in the conference tournament, though.
Southern Miss (9–8, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 189, BPI: 270, SOS: 136) has had flashes, and as a reminder, they have had four games against non-Division I opponents to inflate their numbers. They took care of business against bad teams at home and lost convincingly to WKU and Marshall. The jury is still out on whether USM is awful or decent.
UTSA (9–8, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 238, BPI: 195, SOS: 265) could be 3–1 if it weren’t for some bad luck against UNT. They also have a road win at La Tech, so it remains to be seen whether UTSA is good enough to make any impact in the conference race.
FIU (7–9, 1–2 C-USA, RPI: 315, BPI: 326, SOS: 283) has actually shown life this year. We’ll throw them a bone since they’ve been in every C-USA game so far. Can they really compete night in and night out? No, but taking MTSU to overtime raised some eyebrows.
Trending Downward
La Tech (10–7, 1–3 C-USA, RPI: 158, BPI: 116, SOS: 134) looked to be one of the favorites, but Jalen Harris leaving the program has clearly created a huge hole in the lineup. La Tech is still talented enough to win most games, but they’re learning to play without one of their best players on the fly.
FAU (6–9, 0–3 C-USA, RPI: 240, BPI: 249, SOS: 120) showed life in their non-conference slate for the first time in years, and has come out early and laid eggs. Although FAU has two losses by a total of five points, a blowout loss to UAB and the fact they’re all ultimately losses has FAU behind the eight ball.
Bottom Feeders
Charlotte (5–9, 1–2 C-USA, RPI: 281, BPI: 275, SOS: 300) has been a disaster all year, and beating North Texas on the road January 4 doesn’t change that. They fired head coach Mark Price December 14, and it hasn’t helped. The worst indictment is its recent loss to Rice.
UTEP (6–10, 1–3 C-USA, RPI: 303, BPI: 215, SOS: 253) only showed life once this year, beating Washington State at home. That was impressive, but everything else has been underwhelming. The Miners’ lone conference win came against Rice at home.
Rice (4–13, 1–3 C-USA, RPI: 320, BPI: 324, SOS: 212) has generally been a middle-of-the-pack program in recent years, but the Owls have really struggled this year. They would be incredibly lucky to reach eight total wins on the year.
Overall State of Men’s Basketball: Ever Changing
There’s no question WKU blew up C-USA predictions with their performance against Marshall. With MTSU struggling to win, ODU and UAB looking solid, and La Tech sliding backwards, Conference USA is full of the unexpected.
It remains to be seen what happens the rest of the season, but WKU looked unbelievable with the addition of Josh Anderson. Now they have added another potential stud in Diagne. WKU is for real, but MTSU, ODU, UAB, and Marshall (if healthy) all look like contenders on basically equal footing with the Hilltoppers. MTSU and WKU still have legitimate at-large hopes. It should be a fascinating season in Conference USA.
Women’s Basketball
Conference USA women’s basketball showcases several programs that entered C-USA play on winning streaks that have continued through the first week of play. Defending champion Western Kentucky still looks like the class of the league, but UAB, La Tech, and Rice all look like contenders.
Perhaps the biggest story in the early conference season is preseason slight favorite MTSU starting out 0–2 in conference, but Middle still should be in it at the end.
Lone Favorite
WKU (11–4, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 35, SOS: 46) still stands as the clear favorite, but through no fault of their own, other programs are showing signs of ability to compete with them. Michelle Clark-Heard has her team playing relentless basketball. The Lady Toppers can be brutal to opponents, breaking their will with intense, risk-taking pressure defense and efficient offense. WKU took down Middle and USM with some unbelievable defense. WKU will have a great opportunity to make another statement at UAB Saturday.
Other Favorites
UAB (13–2, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 100, SOS: 299) has played a terrible schedule, but has come out looking really good. They answered some doubters when they beat Middle on the road this past Saturday. Much more will be known when they face WKU this coming Saturday at home.
La Tech (11–4, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 170, SOS: 289) has looked highly improved. Maybe they can compete for a first-round bye in the C-USA Tournament. They are yet to prove themselves this year, but they’ve put themselves in position to make noise.
Rice (12–2, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 125, SOS: 336) has been very impressive in the first half of the season, and they have legitimate talent. Will it translate to a conference championship? It certainly could if everyone stays healthy. They’ve had some injuries to key players.
Unknown
North Texas (9–5, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 206, SOS: 259) played two close games against early conference leaders La Tech and Rice, so there is no shame there. However, there is not enough evidence either way to know how good the Mean Green is.
UTEP (10–5, 1–1 C-USA, RPI: 137, SOS: 270) did well in its non-conference portion, but somewhat sputtered to start the year against middling C-USA teams. Games against Charlotte and Middle should make this picture pretty clear.
Trending Upward
FAU (8–5, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 214, SOS: 294) took advantage of opportunity and got off to a good start in C-USA play. Will it continue? They play two good teams this week, so that will tell us more than their first two.
Charlotte (6–9, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 178, SOS: 104) was looking like its men’s team in November: Struggling. Since the beginning of December, Charlotte is 4–4 against quality competition. Regardless of the beginning of the year, Charlotte is playing good basketball now.
Trending Downward
Middle Tennessee (8–7, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 135, SOS: 155) has some significant players injured, so they may come on late when they get them back later in the year. However, for now, MTSU just can’t score the basketball. They’re averaging in the mid-50’s offensively and defensively. If Middle could get some players healthy, they would quickly shoot back to the top of the heap. Watch for Middle to come on late, but right now, they’re really in trouble. Can they get their players back and in shape enough to contend?
Southern Miss (8–7, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 220, SOS: 241) is generally a contender or dark horse in C-USA, but did not look great against WKU or Charlotte this past week. Southern Miss does not have enough size to make up for a dip in talent.
Cellar Dwellers
FIU (4–11, 1–1 C-USA, RPI: 305, SOS: 243) has not been good all year. Beating Marshall is nice, but that’s one of those games where someone has to win. FIU still needs to show some life before they are considered a threat on any level.
Marshall (6–9, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 316, SOS: 318) has played a horrible schedule and is 6–9 on the year. With an 0–2 start against middling C-USA teams, any thoughts that Marshall could do much were dashed.
UTSA (2–12, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 270, SOS: 94) has just had a rough year. Yes, they played a tough schedule, but a decent team should be able to find a way to finish near .500 out of conference or at least be competitive against good teams.
Old Dominion (2–13, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 310, SOS: 186) is a proud program, but has really fallen on hard times. Yikes.
Overall State of Women’s Basketball: It’s WKU vs. the Field
There may be some programs on the rise, and they may prove differently, but WKU is the favorite. The Lady Toppers are the only C-USA team to beat a ranked opponent this season. They have the toughest schedule, yet still have an excellent record with multiple quality wins and zero bad losses.
Middle Tennessee could be a late factor, but their missing players would need to overcome a great deal of offensive issues in addition to getting back in physical shape. Rice and UAB look like the real contenders, but the C-USA season is so young. It will be interesting to see if anyone can hang with WKU over time.