C-USA Hoops: State of Conference USA — January 17
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. Later in the season, we’ll look at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball last year. The women’s side was 16th. Now fully into conference play, Conference USA stands 16th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
Men’s Basketball
By the end of the week, Conference USA play will be halfway complete, and some monstrous match-ups are set to establish the hierarchy for the rest of the season. Four of the top six teams face off Thursday and Saturday, with travel partners Marshall and WKU hosting MTSU and UAB. Old Dominion has a crucial opportunity to beat up on also-rans FAU and FIU and keep pace with the other favorites.
Other C-USA programs are looking to get back in the picture. With teams with similar records facing each other, the table will be set for the second half of the conference season.
Undefeated
WKU (13–5, 5–0 C-USA, RPI: 40, BPI: 55, SOS: 45) backed up its stellar performance at Marshall with an impressive win against ODU and took care of business at Charlotte. This week wasn’t as mind-boggling as the previous week, but at the end of last week, WKU had hopped 11 spots in the RPI, added a quality road win, and really set up this week to be one of the most important weeks in a regular season in recent WKU history. WKU plays UAB Thursday and MTSU Saturday. The Hilltoppers are considered a bubble team at this point in the season, so two huge conference wins against quality opponents would do wonders for the Toppers this week.
Two time defending champ MTSU (13–4, 5–0 C-USA, RPI: 30, BPI: 52, SOS: 53) has been steadily impressive, and was rewarded with two votes in the USA Today Coaches Poll Monday. MTSU does not have an eye-popping offense like a WKU or Marshall, but plays great defense and overall quality basketball. Middle has been fairly impressive, but has not looked as good as its 2016–17 version. It has not taken its chance to prove its prowess against top flight competition. The Blue Raiders are 1–4 vs the Top 103 in the RPI. Perhaps Middle got on track with two easy home wins against La Tech and Southern Miss, however. Middle’s resume really needs a signature win, and road wins against quality opponents would certainly plug a porous resume.
Second Tier Contenders
Old Dominion (13–4, 4–1 C-USA, RPI: 105, BPI: 75, SOS: 242) took a hit Thursday when they lost to WKU at home. To win a conference championship, the Monarchs are simply going to have to figure out WKU. Despite very average teams over the years, WKU has found ways to get a few wins against ODU since joining C-USA. ODU has a rematch with the Toppers in late February. If the Monarchs witness a WKU sweep, their chances of a regular season championship would almost certainly be dashed. Old Dominion showed enough this week to prove themselves as a legitimate contender for the C-USA title, especially with a weaker conference schedule than some of the other favorites.
UAB (13–5, 4-1 C-USA, RPI: 159, BPI: 95, SOS: 262) got hot at the right time. Their only loss in the past month was by three to MTSU (no shame in that). Chris Cokley could be the best player in the conference and is going to be a load for WKU and Marshall this week. UAB has looked good against inferior opponents, but the schedule strength is about to ramp up for the Blazers.
Dark Horses
Marshall (12–6, 3–2 C-USA, RPI: 141, BPI: 167, SOS: 233) has faced two of the four contenders and has failed. However, Marshall’s massive loss to WKU should prove to be an outlier. Regardless of schedule strength, Marshall needs to put up or shut up this week. They are at home and face two really good opponents. Will they show up? Can they play defense? This is a reckoning for Marshall basketball. They either show the goods Thursday and/or Saturday, or they’re a slightly above middle-of-the-pack Conference USA team that can really shoot.
You know what? North Texas (10–8, 3–2 C-USA, RPI: 178, BPI: 214, SOS: 208) doesn’t look that bad. North Texas is a young team, so they may still be finding themselves. They could make some noise in March. Interesting tidbit: North Texas has been close in every C-USA game, finishing each game within seven points of its opponent. UNT could finish this week 5–2 with La Tech and USM on the docket. Keep your eye on UNT for now.
Unknown
Southern Miss (9–10, 2–4 C-USA, RPI: 203, BPI: 265, SOS: 116) got beat by double digits to two of the best teams this past week, so USM is still a mystery.
For some reason, FIU (8–10, 2–3 C-USA, RPI: 294, BPI: 307, SOS: 267) is still interesting to me. They’ve been competitive in all of their C-USA games, including against Middle and UAB. Are they any good or not? We’ll see against ODU.
FAU (8–9, 2–3 C-USA, RPI: 198, BPI: 227, SOS: 131) got back on track with wins against the westernmost Texas schools this week. FAU gets Charlotte and ODU at home this week. They’re one of the few teams to likely still be a mystery after this week if things go according to precedent.
Out of It
UTSA (9–10, 2–4 C-USA, RPI: 284, BPI: 216, SOS: 313) had a bad luck excuse last week. This week, they lost to the Florida schools at home. Yeah not good, boys.
La Tech (10–9, 1–5 C-USA, RPI: 152, BPI: 121, SOS: 102) is a train wreck. What is going on in Ruston? La Tech looked like a conference favorite, and now they’re dead last. Granted, they have played the toughest conference schedule thus far, and they now play six winnable games in a row. Maybe this picture gets better, but they have dug a crater for themselves in the conference standings.
Charlotte (5–11, 1–4 C-USA, RPI: 297, BPI: 276, SOS: 263) may have held WKU and Marshall within ten at home, but they’re still terrible. Win a few games, and they might crawl out of the cellar, but Charlotte looks doomed to finish near the bottom. They just don’t have much offense.
UTEP (7–11, 2–4 C-USA, RPI: 320, BPI: 230, SOS: 275) is 2–4 and face the meat of its schedule after this week. Yikes. This record could get much worse before it gets better.
Jeez. Rice (4–14, 1–4 C-USA, RPI: 324, BPI: 325, SOS: 205) actually hasn’t been horrible in its past three games. However, they’re still losing. Maybe they can get it together and win a few, but it sure looks bleak for the Owls.
Overall State of Men’s Basketball: Anticipatory
This could be one of the best weeks for competition in recent C-USA history. WKU looks like it may have two sellouts against UAB and MTSU this week, which would be the first time in years upon years to have two sellouts in a row. MTSU and WKU are competing for at-large bids. Somebody is coming out of this week with a sparkling at-large resume.
Several teams are holding on to hope for a decent season, and some are fighting to turn around bitterly disappointing conference starts. Several match-ups could go down to the wire. This week will absolutely establish the tone for the rest of the season on the men’s side, and before we have the picture available, we should see some instant classics.
Women’s Basketball
Well, the unexpected happened this past week. In a week when C-USA could settle down and have an obvious trajectory, WKU, which looked like the far and away favorite, lost convincingly on the road at UAB. Rice lost in an absolute shocker at FIU, but also defeated undefeated FAU on Thursday. Essentially, of the five teams starting last week undefeated, UAB seemed unlikely to finish it unscathed. Not only did they, but everyone lost at least one to leave them lying atop the rest of the conference.
Co-Favorites
WKU (12–5, 3–1 C-USA, RPI: 46, SOS: 50) may still be the favorite, but that loss to UAB was really alarming for Topper fans. WKU had some historically bad nights on an individual and team basis. Only three players scored in double figures, six total scored at all, and several had their season’s worst performance Saturday. WKU’s defense seriously needs to be questioned at this point. They have been inconsistent the entire season defensively. Despite it all, WKU should still be considered the slight odds-on favorite to win the conference.
UAB (14–2, 3–0 C-USA, RPI: 80, SOS: 261) finally showed they’re legit. Playing a horrible schedule up to Saturday, UAB controlled most of the game against WKU and really destroyed the Lady Toppers in the fourth quarter. UAB has announced itself as completely on equal footing with WKU. The question remains whether they will take the next step and continue their success. They have a brutal stretch of schedule in the next month. If they come out of that unscathed, watch out.
Dark Horses
La Tech (12–5, 3–1 C-USA, RPI: 166, SOS: 291) stumbled at Southern Miss and only won by nine at Marshall. This was certainly not the best week for them, but they must be considered a contender with only one loss in conference. They will also be one of the bigger teams in C-USA. That never hurts.
All Rice (13–3, 3–1 C-USA, RPI: 126, SOS: 335) had to do was win against teams they were supposed to, and they would be considered an incredibly dangerous team at the top of the conference. Instead, they’re now proving to be a good team that can be inconsistent. They’re still extremely talented. I wouldn’t sleep on Rice if I were C-USA. They’re very talented.
Middle Tennessee (10–7, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 110, SOS: 157) may play the best defense in the history of women’s basketball, but they just can’t score. Middle shouldn’t be considered one of the conference favorites until they prove they can hang with some of the better teams, or blow out anyone ever. Any team that can’t put opponents away with offense is always susceptible. But C-USA would be fools to not treat them as contenders.
Unknown
North Texas (11–5, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 206, SOS: 302) beat up on two bad teams this week, but that overall record is nice, though. All will be revealed when they play their next four games against quality opponents.
UTEP (11–6, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 140, SOS: 245) hung tough against Middle and beat a Charlotte team that was surging. After three or four games in conference, most teams are still completely in the race. UTEP is one of them.
FAU (8–6, 2–1 C-USA, RPI: 224, SOS: 281) lost its lone game this past week in a stinker at home to Rice. FAU faces opponents with winning records in six of its next seven games. That will certainly go a long way in telling us how good they are.
Charlotte (6–11, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 195, SOS: 103) lost all momentum this week, losing some close battles to decent teams. Charlotte has played such a tough schedule this year, so this team will either fold under the pressure or be better for it. Of late, they look like a tough out for most of C-USA.
Southern Miss (9–7, 1–2 C-USA, RPI: 205, SOS: 233) really did itself a favor, pulling out a slight upset over La Tech and getting in the win column. USM has far and away played the toughest C-USA schedule so far, and that will continue. The Golden Eagles face UAB and Middle this week.
FIU (5–12, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 287, SOS: 204) looked horrifying against WKU, and then magically came out against Rice at home and handed Rice their third loss of the season. Before this win, FIU had shown very little life.
Out
Marshall (6–10, 0–3 C-USA, RPI: 321, SOS: 318) hung with La Tech at home, but is 0–3 in the conference against a soft opening schedule. Life gets even more difficult in a few days when WKU comes to town on the 21st.
UTSA (3–13, 1–3 C-USA, RPI: 299, SOS: 186) had a strong schedule, but after facing ODU, the SOS dropped significantly. Although UTSA kept in it against Middle and actually beat ODU, this team is still not very good against a very average schedule.
Old Dominion (2–16, 0–4 C-USA, RPI: 318, SOS: 205) is a proud program, but has really fallen on hard times. Yikes.
Overall State of Women’s Basketball: Confusing
Just when C-USA seemed to make sense, last week happened. Everything about the week played out unexpectedly, from WKU, Rice, FAU, La Tech, and Charlotte all losing at least once this week, to UAB beating WKU in the way it did.
In addition, some teams that looked absolutely lifeless showed they may be better than they seem to be. Instead of a separation, 11 teams could be sitting near the top of the conference by the end of the week. Only a few look inept. With WKU’s loss, much of the at-large intrigue is lost. Conference USA is almost certainly going to be a one bid league now.
Can UAB continue winning against a tough upcoming month? Can WKU get back on track against a couple of bad teams this week? Is it MTSU’s time to make a move?