C-USA Hoops: State of Conference USA — January 26
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. Later in the season, we’ll look at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball last year. The women’s side was 16th. Now fully into conference play, Conference USA stands 15th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
For more information on Conference USA men’s basketball, check out Ross Shircliffe’s Bracketology reports.
Men’s Basketball
Conference USA became much more clear-cut after four of the top five teams in the standings played each other last week. Then again, perhaps the picture just became more muddled.
Before last week, Marshall seemed a clear last of the contenders. Then they beat UAB and MTSU at home.
UAB, who seemed the third best team, lost in close battles to WKU and Marshall, now possibly slotting them as the fifth favorite.
WKU handled UAB reasonably well, and lost in a dramatic battle with MTSU at home.
MTSU disappointed against Marshall, yet handled business on the road at WKU.
Old Dominion won by double digits on the road in Florida, avoiding the drama of the other favorites.
So where do we really stand? The top five of the conference are incredibly fascinating, because they have only lost to each other. No team has truly separated itself, but the five as a group are clearly the class of the conference. The four games Thursday did little to change the picture, with each home team winning and none of the top five playing each other. Of all of the match-ups this week, only one should have an impact on the championship picture: Marshall at WKU Saturday night.
Back to Square One
MTSU (15–5, 7–1 C-USA, RPI: 23, BPI: 52, SOS: 42, NR/RV) is the new old favorite. Middle was expected to win Conference USA, and here they are, standing the slight favorite after finding a way against the lone remaining undefeated, WKU. Middle is still a bit of a mystery, with moderate offensive production surviving by way of its excellent defense. Middle finally got its first true quality win of the season when they beat WKU. Now their computer numbers look even more impressive, and they seem to have firmly set themselves up for at-large options in March. Middle still needs some work to be truly considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament, however.
Fantastic Four
WKU (14–6, 6–1 C-USA, RPI: 44, BPI: 57, SOS: 34) could have used two wins at home last week against two of the best teams in the conference. WKU would have had a complete and utter stranglehold on C-USA if it had beaten MTSU. The Toppers coulda-shoulda-woulda had a virtual two game lead on every team. Instead, now the Tops are right in the thick of it looking like the second favorite. Despite the loss, WKU seems to be about as good as MTSU and the rest of the contenders. WKU has faced an absolute gauntlet in its first month and seems to have come out extremely well. By Saturday, the Toppers will have played seven of its eight conference games against the top half of C-USA and despite it all could stand alone at the top of the conference. Not bad.
Marshall (14–6, 5–2 C-USA, RPI: 94, BPI: 153, SOS: 150) slots in as the third best team in C-USA this week. Marshall, travel partner with WKU, has played the same schedule as WKU and (so far) has two losses to show for it, both to contenders. Marshall would be a stressful task for any team in the country, and with a dominant shot blocker and a sharpshooting driver, the Thundering Herd really has established itself as existing among the C-USA favorites. The ultimate question with Marshall is, “Will they ever play defense?”
Old Dominion (15–4, 6–1 C-USA, RPI: 90, BPI: 72, SOS: 250) is only the fourth best team in the conference simply because of schedule strength. A gorgeous conference record is deceiving; Old Dominion only has to face MTSU and UAB once, and those match-ups will be in Norfolk. Thus far, the Monarchs’ only challenges have been WKU and Marshall at home. ODU’s one loss was a convincing loss to WKU in Norfolk. ODU could end up winning C-USA’s regular season simply because it drew such an easy schedule.
UAB (14–7, 5–3 C-USA, RPI: 146, BPI: 95, SOS: 211) lost two games last week, but let’s keep it in perspective: Their only conference losses are to Marshall and WKU on the road, and to Middle at home by three. UAB may be the last of the favorites, but any team with two bona fide bigs, a great point guard, and a great fan base used to great basketball is in the running.
Dark Horse
La Tech (12–9, 3–5 C-USA, RPI: 159, BPI: 129, SOS: 132) suddenly showed life this week, winning two at home. At one point, La Tech was one of six teams competing for the four byes in the C-USA Tournament. They had some internal drama, and started out 1–5 in conference. With newfound momentum and remaining games at home against ODU, UAB and MTSU, La Tech could see its way back into the conversation. Don’t completely sleep on the Bulldogs.
In The Mix
North Texas (11–10, 4–4 C-USA, RPI: 204, BPI: 211, SOS: 227) doesn’t look that bad, but they’re not great, either. North Texas has found itself in every game in conference play, but has only won half of its games. The Mean Green could force some upsets this year, but they’re far too inconsistent to contend.
Southern Miss (11–10, 4–4 C-USA, RPI: 193, BPI: 248, SOS: 146) is unlikely to play a factor in C-USA. The Golden Eagles beat and lose to who they should. There have been very few curve balls in the USM schedule.
FAU (9–11, 3–5 C-USA, RPI: 215, BPI: 230, SOS: 161) has lost two of three after Thursday’s road loss at UNT. A loss at Rice would be a crippling loss for FAU’s hopes of making a decent push this year. FAU must win at Rice Saturday to stick around another week.
Out of It
UTSA (10–11, 3–5 C-USA, RPI: 267, BPI: 213, SOS: 269) looked good against Middle for the first ten minutes Thursday. Then MTSU outscored the Roadrunners by 24 afterwards. UTSA’s only decent win was against La Tech.
FIU (9–12, 3–5 C-USA, RPI: 285, BPI: 297, SOS: 292) shows signs of life, and then the Panthers lose convincingly at Rice. FIU is too inconsistent. They seem to have some decent talent, but can’t put enough together to be truly respected in 2017–18.
UTEP (7–13, 2–6 C-USA, RPI: 323, BPI: 227, SOS: 252) had a chance of a win against UTSA, but now they’re in the midst of a brutal four game stretch against the conference’s best. UTEP should be staring at 2–9 before having a real chance to win a game.
Any time Rice (5–16, 2–6 C-USA, RPI: 330, BPI: 330, SOS: 228) wins a game, it’s news. Well, Rice won a game Thursday, albeit against FIU. Rice has a winnable game against FAU Saturday.
Charlotte (5–13, 1–6 C-USA, RPI: 313, BPI: 293, SOS: 267) just hit rock bottom. Getting blown out by the Florida schools is really embarrassing. Neither of those teams are juggernauts.
Overall State of C-USA Men’s Basketball: Men vs. Boys
Unless something drastic happens, it is abundantly clear MTSU, WKU, ODU, Marshall, and UAB (the men) will be the top five teams in C-USA. Each has played well against those five teams, with the exception of WKU at Marshall, a complete anomaly. None of those teams has faced much difficulty against other programs (the boys) in the conference.
There are seemingly very few options for the rest of the conference. What team really could reverse the status quo? It’s hard to see anyone besides North Texas and La Tech even having a chance, but those two have their obvious flaws or disadvantages.
This dichotomy is really creating opportunity for each of the five teams. WKU and MTSU are entertaining at-large hopes. ODU and Marshall would probably garner decent seeds in the NCAA Tournament it were seeded right now. UAB and La Tech could both realistically finish in the Top 100 at season’s end.
Women’s Basketball
Co-Favorites
WKU’s (14–5, 5–1 C-USA, RPI: 57, SOS: 111) lone blemish of the season was its loss to UAB January 13. With its loss to UAB, in addition to a weak overall conference, WKU takes a swan dive into the low 50’s in RPI. The Lady Toppers now cannot afford to lose another conference game if they wish to really give C-USA a chance at an at-large bid. However, the Lady Toppers probably shouldn’t worry about an at-large bid. Instead, they should work on playing defense. WKU has been wildly inconsistent on the defensive end thus far in 2017–18.
UAB (16–3, 5–1 C-USA, RPI: 89, SOS: 251) followed this season’s precedent. When a team finally establishes itself as the favorite, it loses to a team it should beat. UAB has earned the right to be considered a favorite with WKU, but getting trounced by USM at home does not bode well for UAB to make a run at a conference championship.
Rice (14–3, 4–1 C-USA, RPI: 126, SOS: 339) is one of the most talented teams in C-USA. With such a weak schedule, the Owls are an unknown compared to its conference mates. However, with one loss, Rice is one of the teams to beat in C-USA.
Dark Horses
FAU (10–7, 4–2 C-USA, RPI: 199, SOS: 249) has shown some decent chops so far in conference play. The Owls are yet to play any of the one loss teams, but that changes in their next two games against UAB and WKU. If FAU can survive the next week, that would certainly open some eyes to say the least.
UTEP (12–6, 3–2 C-USA, RPI: 130, SOS: 219) faces Rice Friday. That will go a long way in determining whether either of those teams are contenders or pretenders. Can the Miners win on the road against a good opponent?
Middle Tennessee (11–8, 3–3 C-USA, RPI: 123, SOS: 153) is really considered a dark horse just out of respect. MTSU has not looked above average this season. However, all of C-USA knows a healthy MTSU could beat anyone in the country. Therefore, if Middle can get healthy or simply find some offense, they could win the conference.
Unknown
Southern Miss (11–8, 3–3 C-USA, RPI: 121, SOS: 182) looked like it was rounding into shape, and then it found a way to lose at home Thursday against Charlotte in double overtime. If it weren’t for Charlotte, they would be leading the conference right now. C-USA women’s basketball continues to be a conundrum this year.
La Tech (12–7, 3–3 C-USA, RPI: 191, SOS: 292) has lost three of four against middling teams. Perhaps La Tech is announcing itself as a total pretender, but at this point, not enough of a resume exists either way.
North Texas (11–7, 2–4 C-USA, RPI: 219, SOS: 278) has played a tough conference schedule thus far, facing some of the top teams in its first few games. Time will tell with UNT, but two losses against WKU and UTEP would absolutely knock them out of contention.
Charlotte (7–12, 3–3 C-USA, RPI: 193, SOS: 87) is wildly inconsistent. With an overall record at 7–12, Charlotte has two of its three wins against USM. Charlotte could be a team that could lose to or defeat anyone.
FIU (6–13, 3–3 C-USA, RPI: 278, SOS: 152) has looked good after a trouncing at WKU a few weeks ago. Since losing to the Lady Toppers, FIU has won two of three against some of the conference’s best.
Out
Marshall (6–12, 0–5 C-USA, RPI: 328, SOS: 312) is absolutely reeling right now. The Thundering Herd has finished within 15 points in conference play in only two of five games. Marshall is yet to come within nine points of victory in conference play.
UTSA (3–16, 1–6 C-USA, RPI: 313, SOS: 193) only has one win, and that was against ODU, who doubled its season win total last week.
Old Dominion (4–16, 2–4 C-USA, RPI: 323, SOS: 262) took advantage of scheduling and found two wins against fellow bottom feeders Marshall and UTSA.
State of C-USA Women’s Basketball: Who Knows?
Seriously, Conference USA women’s basketball has been baffling so far this year. WKU looked the dominant team ready to take control and gets blown out at UAB. UAB looks ready to seize complete control and loses to USM. Rice could have had a temporary conference lead and lost by ten at FIU.
Unlike the men’s side, which has predictable hierarchy, the women are completely unpredictable in 2017–18. C-USA boasts nine teams with winning records, but those nine teams are spread throughout 12 spots in the standings. Its five other teams have decidedly losing records, yet two of those teams are currently 3–3 in the conference.