C-USA Hoops: State of the Conference — November 28
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, its chances of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I men’s and women’s basketball.
If Conference USA is to be respected nationally, every team must do their part. Every program contributes to the strength of the conference.
Any win or loss by any team in Conference USA changes the picture, so any upset by Conference USA, or a terrible loss, affects the chances of a C-USA team making a case for an at-large or moving up a seed line in the NCAA Tournament.
RPI ratings and national rankings are coming out. They are not at all indicative of true quality just yet, but most teams have enough of a resume to have a remote idea what their floor and ceiling may be. No official RPI ratings are out, so we’ll just use CBS Sports’ version for the men, and RealTimeRPI for the women. RPI and BPI generally give committees a range of how good a team is, and as more of this information becomes available, we will provide it.
Men’s Basketball
In the first edition of this series, Conference USA’s outlook for an at-large bid seemed incredibly bleak. There were no marquee wins, and seemingly no real opportunities for some decent wins. With WKU and MTSU making some hay with their opportunities, and some other programs winning games they should have, life is better for C-USA.
Teams Building Resumes
This past week, WKU (4–2, RPI: 58) went 2–1 in the Battle 4 Atlantis. They held close to fourth Villanova (4th AP/4th Coaches), beat a ranked (at the time) Purdue (RV/RV), and found a way to come back from ten down against SMU (NR/RV). WKU has an opportunity to be 7–2 heading into a road battle with Wisconsin on December 13. The Tops have no more realistic resume builders besides the game in Madison. It now looks like WKU probably needs to win the rest of their non-conference games to put themselves in position to have a chance at an at-large. WKU’s resume will likely depend on the quality of the Purdue and SMU wins. The game against Belmont, which looked like an at-large contender last week, has now lost three games, including a killer loss to Lipscomb. This affects WKU’s opportunities, as well as…
Middle Tennessee (4–1, RPI: 8): The Blue Raiders have been fairly impressive for the most part this year, but have no marquee wins. Their only current blemish is their loss to Belmont at home. They have the look and feel of a team that has not missed a beat and Giddy Potts looks unbelievable. MTSU has remaining resume building opportunities in each of their final five non-conference games, playing a mixture of solid mid-majors and middling SEC opponents. Unless those SEC teams end up being huge surprises, Middle’s hope will rely on getting out of the non-conference with three or less losses and hoping some of their wins end up being valuable.
Louisiana Tech (5–0, RPI: 13, RV) has survived its first five games against below average opponents, and has a massive opportunity against #24 Alabama on Wednesday, who nearly won a game with three players after a bizarre set of circumstances against Minnesota. La Tech could obviously enhance their chances by beating the Tide, but they also have opportunities against Stephen F. Austin and Texas. La Tech may only have two or three losses heading into conference play.
Other Opportunities for C-USA
11/29 Rice @ Texas-Arlington
11/30 UAB vs. Memphis; North Texas @ Oklahoma; UTEP vs. New Mexico St.
12/2 North Texas @ Texas-Arlington
12/5 Charlotte vs. Wake Forest; FAU @ Fl. Gulf Coast
12/9 UAB @ Auburn; Rice @ SF Austin; UTEP vs. Washington State
12/16 Rice @ Texas Tech
12/19 Marshall @ Xavier; FIU vs. Fl. Gulf Coast
12/20 North Texas @ Georgetown
12/21 Southern Miss @ Florida State
12/23 Southern Miss @ Mississippi State
Overall C-USA Outlook: Decent
Gosh, last week, Conference USA looked to be in trouble already. 2017–18 is supposed to see some massive improvement within C-USA. With some big wins this week, there is actually some hope. It’s still absurdly early to know what the bubble picture is going to look like, but there seem to be three teams with legitimate at-large chances, given their accomplishments already, or their potential strengths of schedule.
The conference has 10 of 14 teams with a .500 record or better two weeks into the season. RealTimeRPI.com rates Conference USA as 19th of 32 conferences. C-USA was 23rd a year ago. In order for a Conference USA schedule not to be a landmine for a potential at-large bid, the conference still needs to move up well into the top half of the country.
However, this start is encouraging, for sure. Clearly, from the list of opportunities, C-USA still has some chances, but the realistic chances to make a huge splash are still few and far between. Barring a dominant run by one of the conference’s elite, the men’s side looks likely to be a one-bid league.
Women’s Basketball
Last week, Conference USA Women’s Basketball seemed to be off to a blistering start. This week, the conference has come back to Earth, but they’re still in fine shape.
Teams Building Resumes
Middle Tennessee (5–0, RPI: 229) seems far and away more likely to build a great resume, simply because of their unbelievable non-conference strength of schedule. Don’t let their early RPI fool you; they have yet to allow 60 points all season, have already beaten Vanderbilt and are still yet to play Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Louisville, USC, and UK. All of those teams have one loss or less. Far and away, MTSU has the best remaining opportunities in C-USA.
Lady Topper Hoops: What If…?
What if…medium.com
The Lady Toppers (3–3, RPI: 22) have already played four major programs, but only beat one of them, despite WKU holding double-digit leads in three of these four games. They certainly missed some opportunities in the first few weeks of the season, but still came away with a win against ranked Missouri. WKU’s back half of the non-conference schedule is very pedestrian, with the toughest test coming at Ball State a few days before Christmas. WKU can’t afford another loss out of conference without jeopardizing their chances.
Louisiana Tech (4–2, RPI: 115) recently lost to a terrible Niagara team, but they also beat Penn State. They play one of the tougher remaining schedules in C-USA, taking on Texas, Clemson, and UALR in early December.
Rice (5–1, RPI: 172) really impressed me so far in the early going. They started out 5–0, including defeating Sun Belt power Arkansas-Little Rock, before falling at Kansas by eight. Rice has one more major opportunity to build up the resume at Texas A&M on Wednesday. With the way they’re playing, they could have two or three losses heading into C-USA play.
UTEP (4–0, RPI: 52) has been impressive, defeating SEC foe Arkansas at home. However, UTEP does not have any more legitimate opportunities to impress before conference season. However, they could run through most of the rest of their schedule heading into conference play.
Southern Miss (5–1, RPI: 100) is another impressive member of Conference USA. Their only loss was to SEC powerhouse Mississippi State. They still take on Georgia Tech and Ole Miss in their non-conference slate, so they could come out in good shape, as well.
Other Opportunities For C-USA
11/29 FIU @ Georgetown
12/3 ODU vs. Cincinnati
12/5 North Texas @ Indiana
12/7 Charlotte @ Arkansas
12/10 Marshall @ Florida
12/17 FIU vs. USF
12/18 Charlotte @ Wake Forest
12/19 FAU @ Nebraska
12/30 Charlotte vs Mercer
Overall C-USA Outlook: Really Good
As you go through the women’s side of Conference USA, there aren’t very many terrible teams, and most teams have a decent schedule that will help the conference’s overall strength of schedule. Conference USA is currently ranked 13th out of 32 conferences, just like they were in 2016–17. Although C-USA was predicted to be dominated by WKU and MTSU, some other programs have made their presence felt early in the season, like Rice, La Tech and UTEP.
If Conference USA can hold its own against some of these powerful opponents, the conference could be in a wonderful position heading into conference play. WKU may not lose another game and MTSU may have the highest non-conference strength of schedule remaining. Several teams could go into C-USA play with two or three quality wins. Several others could head in with two or three losses.
Conference USA Women’s Basketball already has multiple wins against “major” conferences, and is putting itself in position for an argument for an at-large bid if the right situations play out. MTSU and WKU have both received votes in the polls this year, so their efforts are being noticed. To be clear, Conference USA better get some huge wins quickly, or they will be staring at one bid, as well.