C-USA Hoops: State Of Conference USA — January 4
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. Later in the season, we’ll look at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball last year. The women’s side was 16th. The non-conference portion of the schedule has finished, and Conference USA stands 17th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
The men are already through their first week of conference play, and the women start Wednesday.
Men’s Basketball
The first week of conference play saw no massive surprises. The only surprises were La Tech losing two and North Texas winning two games.
A hierarchy is already being established, but a pecking order is still far from solidified. Some teams were impressive; some left doubt; some looked bad.
Impressive
Middle Tennessee (9–4, 1–0 C-USA, RPI: 33, BPI: 54, SOS: 22) still seems to be the favorite, although a back-and-forth battle between UAB suggests parity in the conference. Senior Giddy Potts is yet to be himself this year. He’s averaging the least amount of points per game and 3-point percentage since his freshman year. The Blue Raiders really need him to be a superstar for them to be clicking.
Marshall (11–4, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 108, BPI: 157, SOS: 266) had to be the most impressive team over the first weekend. Although they were at home, they dispatched Southern Miss and preseason dark horse La Tech by double digits. Perhaps most impressively, they didn’t give up more than 66 in either game.
Western Kentucky (10–5, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 63, BPI: 71, SOS: 41) made noise in the non-conference, but did not look completely invincible in its first two games. They nearly blew a game they had in hand, having to take back a lead late against La Tech, and then had plenty of opportunities to put away Southern Miss and never took full advantage. WKU still looks like one of the favorites behind MTSU.
Old Dominion (10–3, 1–0 C-USA, RPI: 91, BPI: 66, SOS: 253) has quietly taken care of their business. Although they played a train wreck of a program in Charlotte, they were impressive, shooting over 50% for the game and held the 49ers under 60.
UAB (9–5, 0–1 C-USA, RPI: 237, BPI: 118, SOS: 303) has played a horrible schedule, but holding with MTSU in a back-and-forth battle, albeit at home, is impressive. Despite losing, they caught my attention.
Questionable
North Texas (9–6, 2–0 C-USA, RPI: 145, BPI: 217, SOS: 185) has played a decent schedule, including playing some tough road games in the non-conference. Perhaps that experience helped them escape their first two games on the road by a single point both times. However, beating two bad teams by one point doesn’t mean this team is a contender. The jury is still out on North Texas.
Louisiana Tech (9–6, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 133, BPI: 109, SOS: 114) was impressive early in the season, but since losing to Alabama by a single possession after leading them the entire game, La Tech has just not looked as good. They’ve had a player leave the program and are 0–2 to begin conference play. It still remains to be seen whether they’re good enough this year after losing their early momentum.
Unimpressive
FIU (7–7, 1–0 C-USA, RPI: 302, BPI: 328, SOS: 304) is not a good team, but saves themselves from the “Struggling” category with a narrow victory over rival FAU at home. FIU is likely going to prove itself as one of the worst teams in C-USA by the end of the year, though.
UTSA (8–7, 1–1 C-USA, RPI: 255, BPI: 203, SOS: 291) beat Rice by 13 and lost to UNT by one at home. Not impressive, but it wasn’t appalling. We’ll learn more about UTSA on the road against La Tech and Southern Miss.
UTEP (6–8, 1–1 C-USA, RPI: 287, BPI: 214, SOS: 216) was a mirror image of its Texas counterpart, beating Rice by double digits and losing to UNT by one point at home. UTEP’s win against Washington State and having gone 5–2 in its last seven games helps keep them out of the very bottom of the league.
FAU (6–7, 0–1 C-USA, RPI: 224, BPI: 235, SOS: 156) showed a few signs of life this year, but an opening loss to FIU, albeit on the road, really dampens the excitement for Owls fans.
Struggling
Charlotte (4–8, 0–1 C-USA, RPI: 294, BPI: 282, SOS: 268) already fired their coach, but opening conference play losing by 31 to a rival had to feel terrible. Charlotte hits the road to North Texas and Rice this week hoping to squeeze out a win or two.
Southern Miss (7–8, 0–2 C-USA, RPI: 192, BPI: 286, SOS: 84) was handled with ease by WKU and Marshall. Both of those games could’ve absolutely been worse than they were. USM played four non-Division I games this season. Their numbers may be impressive, but the computer rankings don’t calculate non-Divison I opponents. USM may cause some issues for some C-USA teams with their four-out system, but they don’t have the size to compete night in and night out.
Rice (3–12, 0–2, C-USA, RPI: 333, BPI: 327, SOS: 255) is very clearly one of the worst teams in the conference. Most of these teams seem to have hope, but Rice got blown out by two very average teams to open conference play. Rice was decent a few years ago, but clearly has some serious issues to resolve before they can hope to do much more than try to steal a game or two the rest of the season.
Overall State of C-USA Men’s Basketball: Unclear
Conference USA sent some mixed signals this week. Is anyone going to dominate the conference? It seems like there are six or seven teams thinking they could finish on top. MTSU is still a clear favorite, but they’re not clicking on all cylinders at this point.
The only team that truly seems to be a pushover is Rice. Every other team will be able to give the top teams a tough time. Let’s check back in a week on this. Maybe we’ll know more.
Women’s Basketball
Conference USA has a clear favorite in Western Kentucky. Seven or eight other teams look like decent teams, as well.
The Lone Favorite
Western Kentucky (9–4, RPI: 33, SOS: 30) has set itself apart as the clear favorite for the Conference USA championship. WKU has a win against a ranked opponent, an awesome schedule, and quality wins and losses. WKU must get its defense together to run away with C-USA, though. The Lady Toppers will find out how good they really are Thursday against MTSU.
Contenders
Middle Tennessee (8–5, RPI: 120, SOS: 176) made its case as a co-favorite when it defeated at SEC foe Kentucky last week. Although that win was nice, Middle has looked inconsistent offensively all year. Can Middle score enough points to win C-USA? The game Thursday will go a long way in determining their fate. They must find a way to steal one at WKU to not dig an early hole for themselves.
UAB (11–2, RPI: 125, SOS: 312) is interesting. How good are they really? They played one Power 5 squad (Indiana) and lost by eight. They’ve taken care of business, but their quality is a mystery at this point.
Rice (10–2, RPI: 165, SOS: 345) caught some early buzz, nearly upsetting Texas A&M, but their schedule has been easier than UAB’s. Rice has some impressive talent with the Ogwumike sisters and can be considered and look like a real contender when those two are healthy.
North Texas (9–3, RPI: 171, SOS: 279) has had some good showings against some pretty good competition, including a one point loss at home to Kansas State. However, North Texas struggles to score. Can they overcome that deficiency to play a factor in C-USA?
La Tech (9–4, RPI: 176, SOS: 276) had some tough non-conference games, facing four Power 5 teams and beating Penn State. La Tech may be one of the more battle tested teams in Conference USA. A proud program, La Tech is looking to get back to national prominence.
UTEP (9–4, RPI: 134, SOS: 262) has a nice win against Arkansas, and has been competitive in all of their games. They look like a real dark horse candidate. Maybe they can be a difference maker in the C-USA race.
Southern Miss (8–5, RPI: 189, SOS: 230) is always solid, and this year is no different. They may not have excelled, but they’re still good enough to beat anyone in the conference. They have a big test coming Saturday at WKU.
Pretenders
Charlotte (4–9, RPI: 199, SOS: 65) was supposed to be better, and maybe they’re decent. However, losing nine games in the non-conference was a disaster.
FAU (6–5, RPI: 239, SOS: 307) has won four of its last five, and has been in it with some decent teams. Maybe they’ll use their recent momentum and make some noise. However, they’re still not really in the race.
Marshall (6–7, RPI: 310, SOS: 323) has played a little bit better of a schedule than the numbers say, but they still haven’t played Murderer’s Row. Marshall should have come out better than 6–7 in the non-conference. It would be surprising to see the Thundering Herd near the top at any point this year.
FIU (3–10, RPI: 316, SOS: 258) is probably a little better than their record, losing several close games. However, the record is the record, and FIU is not very good. FIU has gone from decent to terrible in a few short years.
UTSA (2–10, RPI: 296, SOS: 161) just lost to Texas A&M Commerce. Yeah. That happened. Their only wins are against defeated MVSU and a non-Division I opponent. That’s really awful.
Old Dominion (2–11, RPI: 309, SOS: 189) just won its last game against South Caroline State, so maybe they’ll get it together and put up a fight in C-USA. I wouldn’t count on it, though.
Overall State of C-USA Women’s Basketball: Salvageable
The conference showed life, winning a majority of the games for the first time in several weeks. Western Kentucky looks like an at-large contender, and MTSU looks like it may be rounding into shape in the time of the season that really matters. Those two face off Thursday in a blockbuster C-USA opening match-up.
Several games pit teams with winning records against each other, so a picture will certainly be forming by the end of the week.