Conference USA Basketball: State of C-USA on January 24th
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances (if applicable), conference…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances (if applicable), conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. A major change from 2018–19 is the official use of the NET rankings in men’s basketball. That system is now over a year old and in theory provides a more accurate presentation of how good each team is.
According to the NCAA, the NET relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive, and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. As NET Rankings become available, we will relay those to you, as well. In women’s basketball and other sports, we will continue using the RPI, since there is no NET Ranking available for those sports.
Conference USA Men’s Basketball was highly rated early in the year, but now in what seems to be much more of a realistic presentation, C-USA stands in the dead middle of the pack at 17th overall in Division I. Women’s Basketball is 13th, with four realistic chances for at-large bids. No team on the men’s side has much of any type of chance. They will be fighting to put themselves in position for NIT at-large bids.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings (Now mostly the NET, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, RPI, etc.)
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
Conference USA Tournament seeding is determined in order as follows:
Conference Win/Loss Record
Head-to-head
Winning percentage against each conference opponent in descending order according to the final standings. For example, if the top two seeds split their games, the conference then looks at both teams’ records against the third seed, then fourth, fifth, etc. until a difference in winning percentage is found.
Announced in the off-season before 2018–19, on the men’s side, all teams will play each other in a round-robin format during the first month and a half of the conference season. Then they will be sorted according to their standings to determine to seed, competing with their quadrant of the conference. This is designed to help NCAA Tournament seeding and postseason participation by rewarding quality teams equal opportunities for quality wins.
Today, we’ll be talking about where each team sits after a little more than 1/3 through the conference season. We now have a much clearer picture than we did even a week ago.
State of Conference USA Men’s Basketball: Good But Not Great With Very Little To Fight For Before March
First of all, for all of that talk up there about at-large bids, there really is nothing on that front to talk about. If one team wins the rest of their games and loses to a good team in the tournament that has also won most of the rest of their games, maybe someone could get into the bubble conversation, but there is absolutely no conceivable way a C-USA team gets into the tournament by anything other than winning in March.
That being said, jockeying for position early is incredibly crucial in Conference USA because of the pod system, which makes its return for a second year. Just a recap, each team plays every other team once and its travel partner twice. The standings are then solidified. 1–5, 6–10, and 11–14 play each in a round-robin format. 11–14 play one of the three other teams twice to get to its fourth game in the pod system.
Things have certainly changed from last week when six teams were sitting with a loss or less. Now, only two sit with one loss and the picture is much clearer, although no seed is safe six games into the conference season. Seven (or six for North Texas and Rice, who played Monday) games remain before pod play begins. In theory, anyone could end up with a .500 record heading into the pods.
Now, of course, there are certain things we know about a few teams. For example, it definitely seems like MTSU, and Rice is separating themselves as bottom feeders for 2019–20. Southern Miss has won two in a row to show a little fight but is still likely on the bottom. Everyone else seems competitive.
Western Kentucky and North Texas seem to be clearly upper tier, and Louisiana Tech should figure to join them. However, with two losses, La Tech, FIU, and Charlotte could easily drop into the middle of the pack with a couple of upsets. Louisiana Tech, in particular, is infamous for doing so in the past several seasons. Every year, La Tech comes into conference play around 100 in the rankings (give or take), and they usually implode and end up not even getting a bye in the tournament after looking like a championship contender. FIU and Charlotte are rarely in a position of power, so it remains to be seen how they handle the pressure. However, despite one margin higher than eight points in the league’s seven games between Wednesday and Thursday, only one upset was to be had (USM 84–77 over UAB on the road), a fairly surprising one (especially for UAB’s defense to give up 84) but not one that affects the overall conference picture.
WKU and North Texas seem to be the best, and then teams like Charlotte, FIU, and La Tech sit at 5–2 and within a game in the loss column of first place. Then teams like FAU (solid but no significant wins yet), UAB (Who beat WKU but just lost to USM), Old Dominion (who beat Charlotte and nearly WKU), UTSA (preseason #2 in C-USA and beat La Tech), UTEP (Preseason fourth with good non-conference record) and Marshall (plays WKU twice this week) sit within a game of .500 and have an ability to put a few wins together and get right back in it. Of those, ODU and FAU seem to show the most promise, but it’s too early to tell.
The only team not solidly in a group is Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles just beat Rice and more significantly, UAB. UAB is a pretty decent overall team, and USM went to Birmingham Thursday night and handled the Blazers fairly routinely.
All in all, no team seems dominant. This thing is wide open, and as we go through, notice how small of a margin there is between each team. There isn’t much of one. Although MTSU sits at the bottom, they have the ability to win against anyone from top to bottom.
That all being said, I’ll go ahead and give you my way too early regular-season champion prediction: North Texas. I think UNT is solid everywhere and has been preparing for this moment. Clearly, WKU still has the most individual talent, but two things keep me from picking the Tops: Lack of size after Charles Bassey (tangible) and a propensity to be absolutely terrible for halves at a time (intangible).
That combination will (probably) do in the Tops. Without question, WKU has heart and beat UNT by double digits in a head-to-head match-up in Bowling Green. That doesn’t mean that wasn’t an absolute fluke, though. WKU has four comeback victories, including the one against UNT, but the Mean Green has multiple weapons and should always be solid as long as they stick together. The smart pick right now is North Texas.
The Top Two-and-a-half
Western Kentucky (13–6, 6–1 C-USA, NET: 115) has now re-established itself as the conference favorite. Cam Justice returned to the WKU lineup, and with admittedly terrible stats (two points, three rebounds, six turnovers), was +19 in his 20 minutes against Charlotte. This surely would not be unanimous (like the preseason coaches’ poll), but everyone has a loss, WKU is alone with North Texas with only one loss, and WKU has two solid wins against UNT and at the time, an undefeated Charlotte team (Charlotte has lost two in a row). WKU now has four comeback losses, three of which are from double digits in conference play. They have the most proven heart of anyone in the conference, bar none. They’re the favorite on paper.
Being a WKU expert that saw the North Texas game, of course, WKU has more potential than anyone, but I would still, if stepping away from the Topper red glasses, pick North Texas as the favorite because of WKU’s ability to completely lose focus for halves to games at a time. These things shall play themselves out. Western could establish itself as a bigger favorite by beating Marshall twice on Wednesday and Saturday. Step one of that is complete, but WKU needs to go home and take care of business. The Tops needed a 23 point swing from 1:00 remaining in the first half to the end of the game to win by four against the Herd in Huntington Wednesday. Sure, that’s incredible, but they needed another 20+ point swing to beat UNT. Why should the conference favorite ever be down by 19 to anyone? Western apparently knows how to finish. The key for the Tops? Focus from start to finish. Mastering that will win or lose them a championship.
North Texas (13–8, 7–1 C-USA, NET: 83) is your definite co-favorite with WKU. A top 100-caliber team, North Texas has the size, shooting, and experience to win a championship. They also doubled down on their co-favorite status by absolutely pounding UTSA at home Thursday. For me, the question is, “Do you have the pedigree?” Part of it is being able to. Part of it is actually making it happen. That has to be proven, but for me, UNT is my gut’s favorite to win C-USA.
The Mean Green feature a starting five that has not changed from the beginning of the year, four shooters over 40 percent from three (Umoja Gibson, Javion Hamlet, Zachary Simmons, and DJ Draper), a really good grad transfer (Deng Geu), and six players that average at least 6.5 points per game. No player is an elite rebounder, but they out-rebound opponents by four per game. They hold opponents to 62 points per game. They are extremely well-rounded and have won six in a row.
Louisiana Tech (14–5, 5–2 C-USA, NET: 91) is still a favorite for me. They’re hanging on by a thread to this distinction, but although the Bulldogs are now sporting two losses, one was to UTSA (Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace can both win games on their own) and the other to North Texas (by 1 in Ruston), they’re still the third favorite. This team is really good, BUT two losses means it’s time to make a move. This team has a history of meltdowns in January. After beating Middle by seven on Thursday, La Tech draws UAB, Charlotte and ODU next. That’s a decent chance to go win some games, but it’s also a challenge because those two may be proving to be the two toughest travel partners in C-USA this year. But regardless, if the Bulldogs go win, they’re likely at or atop the standings and feeling good.
La Tech features a very defensive-minded, offensively balanced team just like North Texas in a lot of ways. Those two faced each other and scored 101 points combined with a buzzer beater three pointer last weekend. Although it is not pretty, it is impressive to nearly win only scoring 50 points. Statistically, La Tech is better offensively and defensively than North Texas. La Tech uses a lot of pressure, stealing nearly ten times a game, forcing nearly 50 percent more turnovers than they commit. Regardless of statistics, La Tech needs to make a move on this winnable part of the schedule. Win four in a row (including Middle Thursday) and surely they’ll be sitting no worse than tied for second. La Tech could sorely use a string of wins and/or a signature win to gain my full respect as a favorite, though. If they really do sweep the next week and a half, that gets the job done for me to say they’re worthy to be feared by everyone.
Impressive Wins Thursday
Charlotte (11–7, 5–2 C-USA, NET: 167) is much improved over last season. Charlotte was just not a good match-up against WKU. WKU’s one weakness is size, and Charlotte does not have massive size. They have some girth, but Carson Williams and Jared Savage are thick enough, and Josh Anderson is long enough to hang with a team like Charlotte. That being said, the 49ers seem to be for real, and right now, I see no reason they can’t make the top pod for the first time. Winning a tough game against FAU in which they trailed a good portion of the game is a good win. That’s finding a way in a very even C-USA.
Charlotte plays slow-down ball, or as Rick Stansbury put it, the Princeton offense. Charlotte prefers games in the low 60s, methodically moving the ball around the perimeter and waiting for the defense to make a mistake. It works for them, and their grinding style results in a really good three point shooting defense. They don’t particularly shoot well, rebound well, or do anything significantly more efficiently than their opponents. Charlotte still has something to prove before they’re considered to be a legitimate contender. However, they are a solid basketball team that should not be taken lightly.
FIU (14–6, 5–2 C-USA, NET: 155) did exactly what it should have last week: Beat up on average teams at home. That is an impressive week, and for me, this put FIU up there as a real possibility to make the top pod. With a gutsy win at home against Old Dominion, this is emphasized even more. I’m still skeptical, but that’s just because they’ve never done anything since being the 5 seed in the Sun Belt with Richard Pitino. That was nearly a decade ago. Since then, FIU has never really competed in either of the conferences it’s been in since.
Osasumwen Osaghae (spelled that one from memory and my incredible knowledge of FIU Basketball…not) is averaging 13 points, eight rebounds, and 4.4 blocks per game, shooting 69 percent from the floor. He even shoots great free throws, hitting 75 percent of his shots from the charity stripe. He is nearly impossible to stop when he wants to score, makes good decisions, barely turns the ball over once per game, and surely has to be one of the most efficient players not only in C-USA, but the country. Where did this guy come from? He averaged 8-and-8 last year and didn’t start much more than half the time. Now he’s a shoe-in for All-Conference USA and probably will end up Defensive Player of the Year.
Skeptical About These Teams’ Chances
FAU (12–8, 4–3 C-USA, NET: 196) is a total of 14 points from being winless in Conference USA. They also have no impressive wins and have really been pretty lucky so far in conference play. After reviewing this team statistically, this feels like a very flukish 4–3 team. FAU gets Charlotte (loss) and Old Dominion this week on the road and then gets Western and Marshall, so this team may come back down to Earth with a thud. Or if they win, they’ll finally prove they’re worthy of some attention in C-USA. Until then, I can’t take this team as a serious threat to be near the top.
FAU features a balanced attack (five players average eight or more points per game) that forces some turnovers, takes some risks, and rebounds the basketball (+3 rebounds per game). Cornelius Taylor is a decent scorer (12.3 ppg), but he is also a turnover machine (2+ per game)and produces very little outside of scoring (2.5 rebounds, two assists, one steal per game). It’s difficult to pick out a standout from FAU’s lineup. Then again, that’s the difficulty of playing a team like that. How do you game plan? They’re all decent.
UAB (12–8, 3–4 C-USA, NET: 201) is still a mystery despite their nice-looking record. In conference, they have a great looking win against Western Kentucky, a convincing win against Marshall, and a squeaker against 4–2 FAU. But they also were swept by the coastal schools (ODU and Charlotte) and were absolutely slaughtered by FIU last Thursday. This is a team that clearly has some ability, but it is discombobulated with the bizarre departure of Zack Bryant, a player that has been around forever and was the starting point guard.
Without Bryant, the Blazers are not remotely as offensive-minded, but they are competent in a few areas. Although they do not have a dominant rebounder, UAB outrebounds its opponents by nearly ten per game and holds its opponents well under 40 percent shooting. Without Bryant, Jalen Benjamin steps into the starting lineup, but he does not shoot the ball remotely as well as Bryant. He averages 11 points per game, but takes a ton of shots to get there. He is going to be a bright star, but for now, he is an inefficient freshman. Tavin Lovan is the other big cog of the Blazer, averaging 11 points, as well. UAB’s key is their depth. They may not be incredibly productive, but they do play eight guys at least ten minutes per game.
Marshall (9–11, 3–4 C-USA, NET: 193) had a 19 point lead on WKU Wednesday night with about one minute remaining in the first half. WKU would swing the margin by 23 points the rest of the way to stun Marshall in Huntington. Marshall is now 3–4 and has to beat WKU in Diddle Arena to get back to .500. Otherwise, Marshall will be down solidly in the bottom 1/3 of the conference. With its loss Wednesday to WKU, Marshall is temporarily in sole possession of ninth place with three other teams needing to lose to improve Marshall’s standing.
Marshall has nine freshman and no seniors on its 2019–20 squad. They have slowly gotten better, and the Herd was poised for a blowout of WKU. This team is perfectly capable of winning some games. They have a different style, with a much more physical style and much more of an inside game. They’re in fact better defensively than last season, only allowing opponents to shoot a shade over 40 percent and blocking twice as many shots as its opponents. Taivion Kinsey and Jarrod West both average at least 14 points and contribute in plenty of ways on both ends of the court. Iran (pronounced eye-run) Bennett is a budding star with a huge body that gave WKU fits Wednesday. The 6'10" 300 lb redshirt sophomore has budded into a serious force down low over the last month or two.
Old Dominion (7–13, 3–4 C-USA, NET: 173) is really coming into form, but still has lost three of four. They have some pretty good pieces remaining from their championship run, but they have had to battle to get it together in the early part of the year. The early part of the year matters not, though. If ODU has gotten it together now, which it really feels like they may be doing so, they could be incredibly dangerous with a really good coach in Jeff Jones. They’re 16 points from being 6–0 in conference despite an abysmal non-conference performance. ODU lost to Western and Marshall by a combined three points, but still, losses are losses. If ODU could shake off the loss to FIU on the road (no shame there) and beat FAU this weekend, they’ll be right back in the hunt like they usually are. If they get swept, they can probably kiss a top seed goodbye. Saturday is a must-win.
ODU is its same old self with a different cast and not as much experience. It still holds its opponents to the low 60s, keeps them shooting a low percentage, and slows down the pace. Old Dominion has had some lineup issues, with only six players playing all 19 games, but 15 players have played at least one game for the Monarchs. Good lord. No wonder they’ve struggled! Another reason could be Xavier Green. Any C-USA fan that paid attention last season knows how good he was in spurts. This season, he is playing 34 minutes a game, shooting 34 percent from the field, and is not making 30 percent of his three-pointers while averaging over 12 points per game. Translation: He is capable of getting up that many shots, but he is just missing right now. If he could get his life together and go on a run, so would Old Dominion.
Texas (Lack of) Fight
UTEP (12–8, 3–4 C-USA, NET: 151) was picked to be solidly into the top pod at season’s end. Instead, the Miners are sitting at 3–4 and are yet to face teams like North Texas, Charlotte, WKU, and other higher-level teams. UTEP will need to get their affairs together quickly, or they will find themselves in a disappointing position once again. Several high profile transfers have worked out well, but they have not played well in conference. Three of its four losses were by a total of eight points, but nonetheless, the losses are devastating. UTEP has to win the vast majority of its remaining games.
Standing behind WKU and UNT by 4.5 games with seven to play means spots in that top pod are becoming scarce for the teams at or near the bottom. UTEP could possibly handle one more loss and still hope for a spot in the top five, but they are in big trouble. UTEP did take care of business and beat a bad Rice team Thursday. The Miners could do everyone a favor and steal a win at North Texas Saturday.
UTEP stops and goes with superstar Bryson Williams. Shooting 55 percent from the field, 44 percent from three, and 85 percent from free throw, he also drops in a meager seven rebounds to go on top of being such a great, productive scorer. He’s a beast, but he does get into foul trouble, committing 12 more fouls than his next closest teammate through 19 games played. That is a serious weakness that plenty of teams could explore. Get rid of Williams and UTEP would struggle to ever score in the 60s.
UTSA (9–11, 3–4, NET: 187) is dangerous, but a massive, depressing disappointment. Imagine if this team lived up to its potential and was a top 100 team. It would take C-USA from a middling conference to an above-average mid-major just like that. Instead, UTSA is swimming in a circular drain waiting to get flushed. Now, don’t get me wrong. This team is dangerous. For example, they came out of their funk to beat La Tech by 16. Then again, they lose to the Florida schools and UTEP, another massive disappointment for C-USA. Between UTSA and UTEP, the two travel partners have just utterly bewildered onlookers. What is going on in non-northern Texas schools in C-USA? UTSA added to the misery by getting slapped by North Texas by 20 Thursday.
Statistically, how can we explain UTSA’s lack of wins? First of all, a terrible start. UTSA started out 1–6, including losses to SIU, Oakland, Delaware, and Prairie View A&M. That’s really, really bad and is dragging down the numbers for sure. However, they’re still inconsistent. Why? How about your two main scorers (Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace) — who combine for 42 points per game — both shoot less than the team’s average field goal percentage. Translation: 1-on-1 iso ball and they’re not making their shots. Neither is hitting more than 1/3 of their threes.
Besides some guys that see mop-up minutes every game or two, these two shoot the worst and third-worst percentage of anyone in the regular rotation. Contributing over half of the points and needing nearly as many attempts to get your points is not efficient basketball. And perhaps their saving grace is shooting mid-80s from the free throw line. Otherwise, those numbers would be even more negative. If Jackson and Wallace are one, they’re unstoppable. If they’re cranking and clanking, they’re actually hurting their team.
Showing Life from Out of Nowhere
Southern Miss (6–14, 2–5 C-USA, NET: 258) had one win against Division I teams (at home vs. SIU by 3) and had lost each of its five conference games by ten or more points. On an average night, they would show up and lose by nine points. That’s really sad, and USM was pretty good despite a lack of size under Doc Sadler, who mysteriously resigned and returned to Fred Hoiberg to serve as an assistant at Nebraska. He left his program devastated, probably knowing losing a ton of seniors and returning no one would have spelled absolute doom for his career at USM anyway. Nonetheless, USM is left to pick up the pieces, and it doesn’t seem like there is so much of a crumb left to eat.
That was a week ago, but now USM has won two games in a row. The Golden Eagles have climbed 50 spots in the rankings and are now a win at MTSU away from likely standing firmly in the race for the second pod and leaving someone like UAB, Marshall, and some others fighting with them to stay out of the very bottom pod with the near shoe-ins for that lowly distinction, Middle and Rice. USM must be riding a high after a season (so far) of misery. Southern Miss’ major struggle is behind the arc on both ends. They give up 36 percent shooting outside and only shoot at 30. That is the only distinguishable stat line that creates opponent separation. Shore that up and USM has a chance to upset a couple of people.
Sad State of Affairs
Rice (9–12, 1–7 C-USA, NET: 260) showed a prayer for a while, winning against FIU. That kept themselves in the conversation for an extra week or two, but ultimately, Rice is just not going to compete for much this season. Picked to finish 13th, they are in exactly 13th and are shaping up to be around that all year. Rice has lost to both good and bad squads, with the lone win fairly impressive (FIU tied for third). Rice gets UTSA Saturday and North Texas next Saturday.
Rice is led on offense by Trey Murphy, Robert Martin, and Ako Adams, who all score double digits for the Owls. In what seems to be a very common theme for teams in C-USA, low field goal percentage is prevalent in the top tier of the team, and consequently the “good players” are really not helping the team win. Ultimately, Rice is balanced but not a juggernaut offensively, and they give up 75 points per game. It is extremely difficult to give up that many points and win consistently. Since conference play has begun, Rice has scored above 70 twice but has given up 75 five times. That is a losing formula, but do not completely sleep on Rice. They have some talent, balance, and have had some close calls in games they lost this season. If someone catches Rice on a good shooting night, they could be lethal.
MTSU (4–16, 0–7 C-USA, NET: 330) is potentially at an all-time low. Certainly, this is completely uncharted territory for anyone younger than 20 years old. Fans older than that could physically remember when Middle was just the absolute doormat of the Sun Belt if they had followed as children. Well, now they are there again. Frankly, I hate to see it. Although as a Western fan, one should hate Middle and stomp on their grave, you have to hate it for the kids and fans in that program. It’s a really unfortunate thing, and now Middle is on an 11 game losing streak, not winning since December 3 against a non-Division I opponent. No one likes to see that.
MTSU’s offense is not great but not the problem, scoring in the 70s most nights. The defense is the issue, though, giving up 46 percent shooting from inside the three point line and an appalling 40 percent from range and 77 points per game. Throw in getting beaten on the boards and getting outdone slightly in assists and the Blue Raiders are just not very good this season. The good news (although frustrating, I’m sure) is Middle is competitive, deep, and talented enough to win some more games than they have been. Sometimes, when a team gets in a funk of this magnitude, it’s hard to climb out. When they do, though, watch out. Look at Southern Miss: Dead in the water, winless in forever, and they win two in a row.