Conference USA Basketball: State of CUSA Pod Play Edition
Finally, Conference USA pod play is here. We now know a range of where each team will finish, setting up what should be an epic…
Finally, Conference USA pod play is here. We now know a range of where each team will finish, setting up what should be an epic, upset-filled bracket this season.
In this particular episode of the State of Conference USA, we look specifically at what teams need to do to maximize their seeds before the C-USA Tournament. There may be a few mentions of specific players and coaches, but ultimately, this episode is about wins and losses and what they mean for seeding. Feel free to check other additions for my thoughts on specific players from each team.
No team is utterly dominant (North Texas has two losses), and no team has shown such ineptitude that they can’t beat another team (MTSU has two wins and everyone else has at least four). Also, it is highly likely every team but MTSU will finish with at least ten overall wins, and no team has got 20 wins in the bag yet.
North Texas, Western Kentucky, La Tech, and FIU are all fairly likely to finish with 20 wins by the end of the season, but no one that has watched C-USA Basketball this season could claim they just absolutely know what’s going to happen in pod play, let alone in the C-USA Tournament.
Conference USA pod play is absolutely controversial, but ultimately, the goal of pod play is to reward teams that played well all season, to put good teams against each other at the end of the year, and to allow no excuses for placement due to strength of schedule.
There are always winners and losers, like a six or seven seed that gets stuck in the second pod. 11 and 12 seeds get stuck playing teams that could unseat them and kick them out of their spot in the Conference USA Tournament (C-USA only allows 12 of 14 to compete for the Tournament Championship).In the case this year, seeds six to 12 would still be alive for a bye in the tournament with four games to play, incredibly enough.
However, most everyone else has a massive opportunity to move up or beat the best of the best and claim their spot at the top of their pod.
Another intended consequence of pod play would be improving the seed lines for the conference heading into the NCAA Tournament, and if the conference had an at-large candidate, pod play could really help that team by either a) facing good teams in the case of a loss or b) facing quality competition that boosts the resume.
In this case this year, C-USA is a one-bid league and is unlikely to get a better seed than perhaps a 12 in a perfect world. But a team like a North Texas, WKU, La Tech, FIU, or Charlotte that runs the table in the top pod will absolutely boost a resume when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee looks at one of C-USA’s five most likely tournament championship winners. A sweep of four games and a championship run from one of the five in the top pod would feature at least two top 100 wins from the pod and likely more during a tournament run.
Whether fans understand every last detail or not, the system is innovative and a great deal of the kinks from last season’s inaugural pod play have been worked out. I personally am for it, and it seems like a lot of media types understand it deeply and are fans of it. I have seen multiple WKU media members defend it in private, on message boards, and in their own writing.
Fans and coaches as a general rule sem to not like the system, but perhaps it’s time for fans and coaches to look at it more holistically than just from their own perspective. While I respect the opinion on many that this system is ridiculous, I also respect the idea of the system and like that C-USA is thinking big time instead of cowering to the norm.
Whether they have accomplished anything is debatable, especially since no team will have a tangible benefit so far in the usage of the system in two years. But this margin for at-large consideration is also razor-thin. If WKU had not lost Charles Bassey and walked into pod play with say five or six losses, could they not have been in a serious conversation for this pod system helping? If UNT and La Tech had not lost a few crucial games in and out of conference, could this not play a factor? What about the years MTSU was a top 50 RPI/NET type of team? They could’ve benefited from this system without question.
Just because it hasn’t worked in two years doesn’t mean it’s not a good idea for the long term success of the conference.
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances (if applicable), conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. A major change from 2018–19 is the official use of the NET rankings in men’s basketball. That system is now over a year old and in theory, provides a more accurate presentation of how good each team is.
According to the NCAA, the NET relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive, and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. As NET Rankings become available, we will relay those to you, as well. In women’s basketball and other sports, we will continue using the RPI, since there is no NET Ranking available for those sports.
Conference USA Men’s Basketball was highly rated early in the year, but now in what seems to be much more of a realistic presentation, C-USA stands in the dead middle of the pack at 17th overall in Division I. Women’s Basketball is 13th, with two realistic chances and a couple more outsiders looking in for at-large bids. No team on the men’s side has a prayer. They will be fighting to put themselves in position for NIT at-large bids. The team that comes away with the top spot in the regular season will be absolutely guaranteed to play in at least the NIT Tournament if they fall in the Conference USA Tournament.
The one seed is still alive for five of C-USA’s 14 teams.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings (Now mostly the NET, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, RPI, etc.)
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
Conference USA Tournament seeding is determined in order as follows:
Conference Win/Loss Record
Head-to-head
Winning percentage against each conference opponent in descending order according to the final standings. For example, if the top two seeds split their games, the conference then looks at both teams’ records against the third seed, then fourth, fifth, etc. until a difference in winning percentage is found.
Announced in the off-season before 2018–19, on the men’s side, all teams will play each other in a round-robin format during the first month and a half of the conference season. Then they will be sorted according to their standings to determine to seed, competing with their quadrant of the conference. This is designed to help NCAA Tournament seeding and postseason participation by rewarding quality teams equal opportunities for quality wins.
State of Conference USA Basketball: Near Parity Across the Board
Honestly, whoever ends up in the field of 12 after March 7’s games will have a shot to win a championship. In some years, there is a clear gap. I do think one of the top three teams (UNT, WKU, and La Tech) will ultimately win the C-USA championship. However, that is a personal opinion and by no means a guarantee. Part of this whole thing depends on match-ups. If North Texas gets Rice, or simply doesn’t play well one game, or WKU gets any one of the seven or eight teams it struggled against this season and the luck runs out, or La Tech doesn’t bring its road swag and peters out against a troubling match-up in Frisco, then that leaves the door wide open for someone else.
Most likely, one of the top three wins, especially if a few upsets happen and they don’t face an elite opponent. But every one that is not MTSU has a legitimate claim to think they could go on a run and win C-USA. Don’t be shocked if some random, unknown team wins it this year. When any team in the conference has a 25 percent chance against another, upsets happen like flu-like symptoms in the winter. That’s how it is this year.
There’s no telling how these pods work out, how the tournament works out, or how the representative from C-USA does in the NCAA Tournament, but we’re all about to find out. Get your popcorn and Tums, because it’s going to be entertaining and will turn your stomach into knots.
Group 1
1. North Texas (18–9, 12–2 C-USA) has been the best team in Conference USA this season. Both in the non-conference portion of the season and in the C-USA slate, for the most part, North Texas has looked the part of the slight favorite. They were not the preseason favorite, but ultimately here they are looking like they belong. The only stunner was a nine-point road loss at Rice, but Rice had already played the Mean Green, and frankly, every team is due a stinker every once in a while. UNT’s only other loss was when WKU scored 61 in the second half to turn around a double-digit deficit to a nine-point win. That was a flukish game all around and at the end of the day against the second-best team on the road.
As the one seed, North Texas gets the easiest draw, facing the two and three seed at home, while getting the four and five on the road. UNT also does not have to play two games in a row on the road, so the map is fairly well set for them to run the table if they take care of their business. The Mean Green start out pod play at home against Louisiana Tech, travel to FIU, come home for Western Kentucky on a Sunday at 1 PM, and then finish up the season at Charlotte. Personally, I don’t understand why the conference wouldn’t want the most suspense and have the one and two seed play each other to finish the season, but such is life. It’s better than last year when first seed ODU hosted two seed WKU with a two-game lead and the first seed was virtually locked up after the first game. This will create some more suspense for sure.
If UNT wants to win the first seed, it will need at least two wins, but with at least three and a win against WKU, UNT would claim the top spot, regardless of the one loss. The only team that can force North Texas out of the one seed single-handedly is WKU. Everyone else needs two losses by the Mean Green and extraordinary help. If WKU goes 4–0, UNT would be no better than the two seed. Regardless, North Texas cannot finish lower than fourth place.
2. Western Kentucky (18–8, 11–3 C-USA) was the preseason favorite, and despite Charles Bassey going down, the Hilltoppers lived up to the hype. They may not be an at-large juggernaut that only lost three games — like they may have done with Bassey — but the Tops are certainly formidable, and their most scary attribute is their ability to come back from seemingly any deficit within 20 points. WKU has a handful of double-digit come-from-behind wins in conference play. Imagine if WKU had not come back in each of those games! They would be sitting as the eight or nine seed. Literally heart has launched this team six or seven positions in the standings.
So for those brave souls that want to bet on the Tops, God bless you. But you won’t see me at the casino betting the mortgage on WKU. However, don’t bet against them, either. Rick Stansbury should absolutely be considered for Coach of the Year. Regardless of his methods (rarely playing more than six players before and after Charles Bassey’s injury), WKU is right there with a chance to win or share the conference regular-season title, something WKU has not done since 2009. It’s an amazing tale, and I’m sure WKU fans want to finish off an improbable performance with a regular-season title and a tournament championship.
WKU simply needs to win to get the one seed. They’ll need at least two wins, but three is almost essential. That is a lot of pressure because if the Tops don’t win their four, including needing to win at “the Pit” in Denton and at FIU, a place the Tops lost earlier in the year, they are hoping for UNT to do something they haven’t done all year: Lose two of four games in conference play. WKU could finish anywhere from first to fifth, but to finish fifth, the Tops would need to drop four in a row and both Charlotte and FIU would need to win at least three. The only time WKU came close to that was losing four of five in non-conference in late November through December. WKU is way more likely to finish first through third, but with a current first two tiebreakers on La Tech, WKU is in a great position to finish first or second anyway.
3. Louisiana Tech (19–7, 10–4 C-USA) has had a great year. For the first time in what feels like forever (2013–14 and 2014–15 Regular Season C-USA Champions), La Tech is legit and has a great shot at a bye in the C-USA Tournament for the first time since 2017. However great that is, in my opinion, La Tech has the toughest road to achieving what it wants. It is only two games ahead of fifth place, while it is a full two games and a tiebreaker out of first. Basically, La Tech has a lot to lose and not much to realistically gain.
As a reward for its stellar regular season, La Tech draws North Texas and WKU on the road to start pod play. In other words, they better win one of those two or they could be staring at scrapping for a four seed. If they win those two, obviously they sit nearly in the driver’s seat, hoping for those teams to falter one or two more times to allow the Bulldogs to jump them. After they go through the buzzsaw to open, they then get two desperate teams fighting to not get stuck with the fifth seed. They get FIU and Charlotte at home, but these two will likely be ultra motivated because no matter their record in pod play, one of those two is probably fighting to get the four seed. Or in a worst-case scenario for La Tech, the Bulldogs have already lost twice and a surging FIU comes to town looking to steal the three seed.
La Tech has the most realistic chance to finish anywhere in the top five seeds. Of course, they would have to lose three games to run into the possibility of the fifth seed, but facing one and two on the road means they have basically a 35 percent chance (according to ESPN) or so to be in survival mode at home. If La Tech sweeps, with an additional loss by both UNT and WKU, they could climb to the top. If La Tech wins three, they guarantee at least the third seed. Losing two or more puts them in danger of falling to fourth or fifth.
4. Charlotte (14–11, 8–6 C-USA) has had a remarkable program turnaround. Jon Davis was a great near-NBA level talent at Charlotte for 75 years and could never get Charlotte higher than a seven seed in the conference tournament his freshman year (2016). Head Coach Ron Sanchez (another candidate for Coach of the Year) has done an incredible job getting a team that had not qualified for the C-USA Tournament two years in a row to be in a guaranteed position for a top-five finish. With a little bit of luck and a couple of wins, Sanchez could guarantee a bye in the C-USA Tournament.
Charlotte has a middling record at 8–6 in the conference, but ultimately Charlotte survived a deep but not great C-USA field to limp into the top pod. Losing two games right before pod play, Charlotte does not come in with great momentum, but basically took care of business at home (7–0 in conference play), won one road game (at Marshall), and fell into the fourth seed. That’s the definition of just winning when you probably should, and it’s a sign of good coaching. Charlotte may not be the most talented, but they’re dangerous and offer mismatches with girth (but not much height) in the post. If you don’t play well against Charlotte, you lose. If you do, you might win.
Charlotte almost definitely needs to beat FIU to not fall to fifth. Ultimately, in most scenarios, the team that wins the most between those two teams will get the fourth seed. If those teams tie, it’s likely FIU that gets the nod if the Panthers won at Charlotte on March 1. Keep in mind, all but North Texas can end up fifth in theory. However, if Charlotte sweeps, the four seed is absolutely theirs, and the three is not out of the question. La Tech would need to lose at least two, or WKU would need to drop at least three and likely four to be passed by Charlotte. Charlotte’s scenario for moving up past the four is incredibly complicated, and also unlikely. Come shoot me if you wanted more analysis than that.
5. FIU (17–10, 8–6 C-USA) is actually in a better position than Charlotte. Yes, they are sitting in fifth because they lost to Charlotte, but FIU holds something on every other team that no one else in the top pod has: A win against two seed WKU. Why is this important? Because if teams are tied at the end of the year, the tiebreaker goes 1) conference record 2) head-to-head 3) winning percentage vs. common opponents from top to bottom of the league. If WKU finishes the top two, this is a huge distinction for FIU and will likely play a part in plenty of tie scenarios. For example, if UNT and FIU ended up tied, they would have split on the year. WKU is likely the champion, and FIU would have a 2–0 record on WKU. Obviously, if FIU has put itself in a position near WKU, it likely beat WKU, so the Golden Panthers would hold a 2–0 record against the Tops. If this was a two-way tie, FIU would own the tiebreaker in several scenarios.
FIU poses a match-up issue both outside and inside. Perhaps FIU underachieved, losing its last two of the season, losing several games by double digits, but also blowing out several opponents. The Golden Panthers certainly seem inconsistent, but did their work early to earn the top pod, just like Charlotte, starting out 8–4 and falling into a tie for fourth at 8–6. FIU poses an interesting combination of inside dominance (Osasumwen Osaghae) and elite scoring ability (Devon Andrews) along with balance and depth. It looks like a contender on paper, and if FIU can find a way to a bye and be on equal footing with the other three schools with a bye, watch out.
FIU is basically in the same position as Charlotte in terms of needing to stack wins. A good goal is finishing ahead of Charlotte and winning at Charlotte. Another would be trying to sweep at home against the two best teams in the league, UNT, and WKU. La Tech on the road is probably the least likely possibility (10 percent according to ESPN). FIU is the only team heading into the Group 1 pod favored to lose every game. they have nothing to lose, but everything to gain. Watch out for FIU, regardless of the next two weeks.
Group 1 Prediction
This may not be very exciting, but I’ve only got the four and five seed switching. I believe Charlotte will represent itself well, and I believe no one comes out of this pod unscathed. However, I think WKU beats North Texas and loses to La Tech. I think UNT sweeps on the road and beats La Tech. I believe La Tech loses to UNT and beats FIU and Charlotte at home. I believe FIU beats Charlotte on the road and neither of those two wins any other games.
I believe La Tech, WKU, and UNT are the three dominant teams in C-USA. I believe that UNT is the best team, but WKU forces UNT to panic with its press. I believe UNT has the size and athleticism advantage on La Tech. I think FIU is clearly better than Charlotte if they want to be, and I think FIU is the most dangerous team in the conference not in the top three. I also just think there is too much separation and tiebreakers in favor of the top three. With a two-game split to the four and five, I think the four and five battle it out to see who gets the fourth seed. I think the games will be exciting, but ultimately, nothing changes.
Group 2
6. UAB (16–11, 7–7 C-USA) falls just short of the top pod, but honestly winning two at the end of the year kept the Blazers from finishing in the bottom pod. They should thank their lucky stars, because if MTSU was not the travel partner, UAB may have faced a much more difficult opponent, finished 5–9, and lost the tiebreaker to Southern Miss. UAB should really count its blessings.
That being said, UAB plays defense but struggles to score. UAB can be a match-up nightmare for teams like WKU, who the Blazers beat. A team like a WKU that has the ability to disappear offensively at times does not match up well with a team that always plays great defense. Teams like Marshall and ODU in this pod could be in trouble with UAB because of this fact. UAB starts off at FAU, comes home to face Marshall, goes to UTSA, and hosts Old Dominion.
With this pod clustered within one game in the standings, whoever wins four games will win the pod, especially if that team sits tied at 7–7. If no team wins all games, it will be pure and utter chaos. Ultimately, this pod’s seed range climbs from never-in-a-million-years to dark horse. A ten seed will probably never win a conference championship, but a six seed is generally regarded as a team with an actual chance and a decent road to the final game. Keep in mind how crucial a six seed is versus any of these other seeds. Six seeds to not face a top-two team guaranteed until at least the semifinals.
7. Marshall (13–14, 7–7 C-USA) is different than they usually are, but they are extremely young and talented in a different way. Head coach Dan D’Antoni has a roster loaded with big, tall, and long underclassmen, and Marshall got so much better as the season ran along. Finishing 4–2 to end the season (and two close losses to WKU before that), Marshall was looking like a team that could possibly end up in the Group 3 pod. Now I view this team as a possible dark horse type of team. They’re big and have a really good coach. In addition, that youth is growing up and is now playing like an experienced unit. This Marshall team has two wins against the top pod, and no loss to those top five by more than seven. Impressive.
Marshall gets Old Dominion at home, another team that is coming on strong of late. Marshall then plays UAB in Birmingham. Then the Herd come back home to face a reeling FAU and then travel to UTSA to finish up pod play. As we start getting into who is actually in this pod, it’s amazing how each team was expected to do something at some point this year. UTSA was supposed to be the team that could challenge WKU for a championship in the preseason. FAU was on pace for much of the season to finish in the top five. Marshall and Old Dominion are red hot. UAB finished on top of this heap. Who knows where this pod ends up?
Marshall has wins against the top pod, something few others in this pod can claim. That could play a factor in a tiebreaker scenario. Obviously Marshall wins the six seed if it wins its four games. Going winless likely results in a ten seed. Marshall may be positioned the best to lose a game and still win the pod, as well.
8. ODU (11–16, 7–7 C-USA) has come absolutely out of nowhere. The Monarchs were 4–12 before heading into C-USA play. They were absolutely awful. All of a sudden, underrated Head Coach Jeff Jones started figuring out what to do with his hodgepodge squad and has absolutely put ODU in contention for another C-USA title. With a good performance in pod play, ODU could easily be sitting as the six or seven seed in a few weeks’ time.
Old Dominion starts pod play at Marshall, gets FAU at home, UTSA at home, and finishes up with UAB on the road. Frankly, ODU may have the best coach in this pod, and that is nothing to sneeze at. Obviously, playing at Marshall is difficult, but every other game, ODU will be favored or will be facing a 50–50 proposition.
The Monarchs’ best conference win came against Charlotte, so tiebreaker scenarios may not be best for them. One would think they will need to win four to win the pod. Again, because of likely tiebreakers, the Monarchs would almost certainly fall to tenth if they were to lose all four. Frankly, I see ODU winning three or four in this pod. I think they’re playing really good basketball and coaching always shines under pressure.
9. FAU (14–13, 6–8 C-USA) has absolutely melted down the past two weeks. FAU was sitting in a great position and hit some hot teams and faltered. With two losses to FIU and losses to USM and La Tech, all of a sudden the Owls barely squeaked into the second pod. Don’t sleep on the Owls, though. They do have quality wins, including their biggest win: Vs. WKU, something that could come into a tiebreaking scenario. They also have wins against three of the four teams in the pod, so this is a team a game back with a great opportunity.
Honestly, before these last four games, FAU would’ve been the hands-down favorite to win this pod and come out with the sixth seed. I see no reason to doubt them, except they’ll have their hands full with a loaded pod. FAU draws two home games to start against UAB and UTSA. Winning those two could really put the Owls in the catbird seat, depending on other results. FAU is great at home this season, so don’t be shocked if they win both despite facing quality opponents. Then they draw at Old Dominion and at Marshall to finish the season. Of all of the places in the league to play on the road, those are two of the top four toughest gyms to play in (WKU and La Tech).
Because of some tiebreakers already established, FAU would win this pod by simply winning all four games. Old Dominion is the only team that FAU wouldn’t immediately win by winning percentage, so the breaker of the tie would go to best wins, and that would be FAU’s win over WKU in all likelihood. However, losing one game pretty much means a no go for the sixth seed for the Owls. I believe the Owls will find it difficult to finish last if they can win at least one game, again because of their awesome tiebreakers. It’s interesting because the two teams a game behind the rest of the pod have great ways to win in a draw between other schools.
10. UTSA (12–15, 6–8 C-USA) is a baffling, dangerous as heck but seemingly fairly crappy team. UTSA was supposed to be the “dark horse” or C-USA this season, but that has never come to fruition, although anyone that counts them out in March is a complete idiot. Jhivvan Jackson averaged 27 points per game and is UTSA’s all-time leading scorer as a junior. Yes, as a junior and with at least five games to play in his junior year, no less. Keaton Wallace is another 1,500+ point scorer and is only a junior as well. These dudes are legit. However, they only shoot slightly above 40 percent from the floor, so therein lies a lot of the issue.
Nonetheless, UTSA does have a trump card they hope to play in beating La Tech. Certainly, if La Tech were to win C-USA or at least pass WKU, that would give UTSA the upper hand over both UAB and FAU in tie-breaking scenarios. UTSA does have some hills to overcome, including losing to FAU and UAB already. This means UTSA needs help to win the pod but also needs help in moving up.
Winning all four games would put UTSA in a great spot, of course. But they will need other teams to fall at least one more time, or they will need La Tech to jump two games to get ahead of WKU and be able to use their win against La Tech on January 9 to break a stalemate. With this being the middle pod and all teams sitting at .500 or so, it’s likely a team winning all four might win the pod, but UTSA is the least positioned of all of the five schools to simply win and get in. Dropping one, especially against a team they have already lost to, spells doom and would likely mean they’re no higher than an eight seed. Losing all four means they stick with the ten. Winning one game is still probably a ten seed, but it depends, once again on what everyone else does.
Group 2 Prediction
I see this as the pod that gets jumbled up and turned on its head. I think this pod could end up with a four-way tie or something insane like that. These teams are so evenly matched, as well. UTSA is the most talented but is the most inconsistent. ODU and Marshall were awful to begin the year and are now playing decent enough to make a run in the tournament if they get a good draw. UAB can’t score but plays lights out defense. FAU is a really solid basketball team but walks in with zero momentum.
To sort this, I will just say I think the best teams are ODU, then Marshall, then FAU, then UTSA, and then UAB. I think UTSA will win one or two games, simply because of talent. I believe UAB has the toughest draw, as well, facing two red hot teams in Birmingham and going to two tough places to play in Boca and San Antonio. I really don’t like the Blazers in this pod. I believe FAU wins its games at home against UAB and UTSA. I believe Marshall wins three of four and so does Old Dominion. That means I’ve got Marshall winning the pod and getting the sixth seed, ODU grabs the seven, FAU gets eighth, UTSA gets ninth, and UAB falls to the ten seed.
Group 3
11. Southern Miss (9–18, 5–9 C-USA) won all five of its conference games after the middle of January, so as hot as a 9–18 team can be, the Eagles are really on the upswing. USM looked like the very worst team in the conference a month ago. Then they started winning and playing close games (losses by less than an average of six points since January 18 win vs. Rice), looking much better and if we’re stepping away from their awful record, looking like one of the better teams in the conference. I don’t think anyone in C-USA wants to play USM right now. Four of their five wins were against teams with at least six wins in conference play, and another loss by three at WKU shows how good the Eagles were playing of late.
The Group 3 pod is different than the others because only four teams are in this pod instead of four. To fix the scheduling issue, each team plays another team twice in pod play. USM, getting the most advantage because it sits as the highest seed of the pod, draws lowly Middle Tennessee twice. Unfortunately for USM, this was one of their losses during their hot streak. Sandwiched between the two MTSU games is a game at UTEP and a home game against Rice. USM will have an upper hand in terms of tiebreakers, but the Golden Eagles also get their two road games at places they’ve already lost this season. This is a tough draw for such a hot team.
Winning three of four with a win against UTEP would seal the deal for USM. Losing three or four would likely be a death sentence. Winning two or more probably means they survive and get into the field of 12.
12. Rice (13–14, 5–9 C-USA) is actually a decent team that got washed out in a difficult schedule. With a travel partner in North Texas and a road schedule that featured three of the five in the top pod, Rice ends up in the Group 3 pod by simply losing a couple of key match-ups. If Rice had won any one of four single-digit losses in C-USA, they wouldn’t be in the bottom pod. However, such is life and they have earned where they sit. Sitting at the 12 seed is a scary position because falling one spot means missing out on the C-USA Tournament and a chance to make the NCAA Tournament.
Rice is probably the most talented team in the bottom pod, but probably has one of the most difficult draws. With a win against UNT, Rice would win almost every tie if teams were at 1–1. The only team that will apply to possibly is USM, and that means the Owls would need to win at Southern Miss March 4 to even make that happen. Rice gets UTEP twice, a team that was good in the preseason. Once C-USA play started, though, the Miners were just awful. Rice gets them twice (home and away), but the problem is Rice already lost to them, so if they lose at UTEP to start pod play, Rice will not win against UTEP in a tie. Southern Miss is tough, as well.
Rice wins the pod by winning all games. That goes without saying. However, MTSU needs to win four games to make it, AKA it’s pretty much down to UTEP, Rice, and USM for the final two spots. The first game against UTEP is huge for Rice. If Rice can win that, UTEP will be two games behind them, they get Middle next, and Rice could have a stranglehold on the 12 spot needing a win or a loss by UTEP to finish the Miners off. Losing early might doom the Owls because they do need to beat UTEP at UTEP to really put themselves in more control. Ultimately, beating UTEP is their key. Without at least one win against UTEP, they will likely fall to 13th. Losing twice to UTEP means they need UTEP to lose to both USM and Middle and needing to beat those same two schools themselves, a really tough task.
13. UTEP (13–14, 4–10 C-USA) is frankly sitting in one of the better positions in this pod, despite being a game back. UTEP has a win against each team in the pod and has a chance at home to get on equal footing with the 12 seed with an unbreakable tiebreaker by simply beating Rice to start pod play.
UTEP has lost five in a row and six of seven, so they are not coming in about ready to take the world by storm. However, they will have confidence against each team they face. However, they must take care of business. Two games at home should really help the Miners start out right, facing Rice and Southern Miss. Winning those two would guarantee no worse than a three-way tie for 11th after two games. Then heading to Middle should be a win, but if not, they get a chance to redeem themselves at Rice to finish the season.
It really feels like winning two gets it done for UTEP. Regardless of who the wins are against, UTEP would eliminate MTSU and stand equal with someone else. Because of their wins against the other teams, most scenarios point to UTEP squeaking it out against the other teams. If UTEP wins at least one against Rice and wins two total, this is even more secure. Winning two against Rice makes it nearly 100 percent certain. Three wins of any combination will get it done, and obviously winning four will win them the 11 seed. This is not an awful position for UTEP in the slightest.
14. MTSU (6–21, 2–12 C-USA) is really hanging on to a snowball’s chance in hell type of prayer. MTSU must win all four games and hope for everything else to work out perfectly. MTSU’s Blue Raider Stats on Twitter was talking about their odds to make it at about 99-to-1 just to win their four games, according to KenPom. Then the other scenarios that needed to happen more than double the height of the odds, making it less than a .5 percent chance that MTSU could make it to Frisco. Technically, there are a few more scenarios MTSU could make it than 1-in-200, but the odds that MTSU overcomes being a two-win conference team to magically win four in a row are astronomical in themselves.
MTSU would need a win against everyone, and a combination of two of the next three: Another loss by USM, another two losses by Rice, or at least one loss (possibly two) by UTEP. MTSU has absolutely no control and need multiple miracles after needing a mega miracle. There’s not much more need to expound than that.
Group 3 Prediction
I think USM and Rice have a crappy draw, and I think UTEP simply needs to win a couple of games to solidify a spot. I believe UTEP grabs a spot simply because of the minimal effort they need to do so, and I think USM has enough of an easy road and an advantage over Rice to make it happen. If Middle was one game closer, I would pick them to make it. However, I think they fall one game short.
I say UTEP gets the 11, USM grabs the 12, MTSU jumps Rice for the 13 seed, and Rice ends up in the 14th spot at the bottom of the conference.
To Recap…
The Seeds in the 2020 C-USA Tournament Will Be:
North Texas
WKU
Louisiana Tech
FIU
Charlotte
Marshall
Old Dominion
FAU
UTSA
UAB
UTEP
USM
DNQ: MTSU
DNQ: Rice