CUSA Basketball: State of Conference USA on January 16th
Conference USA Basketball is a complicated quagmire of moving parts. Each year, the league is stronger or weaker than it was the previous…
Conference USA Basketball is a complicated quagmire of moving parts. Each year, the league is stronger or weaker than it was the previous year. Because of the nature of athletics, and especially intercollegiate athletics, the quality is ever-changing. Teams are younger, older, or more or less talented as players come and go. With the transfer portal, it’s ever more the case, especially from a mid-major perspective.
For example, a couple of years ago, Conference USA Men’s Basketball was significantly weaker than the women’s side. Last season, the men’s side became much stronger, and this year, both sides measure in the low teens (13th) of over 30 conferences.
Translation: Conference USA is a decent mid-major basketball conference this year.
In the State of Conference USA series, we’ll do a team by team rundown of how the conference members are doing in men’s and women’s basketball and the postseason chances or each.
Some teams may be postseason eligible, others may be eliminated, and still, others may be hanging by a thread.
After a long absence, the State of Conference USA is back!
*Note to readers: Sorry we haven’t done it since…(checking previous stories) October 11. I was in full “Medicare Matt” mode (I’m an insurance agent), wife had a baby December 8th, and had some curveballs thrown at us while being so busy. We should have a (near) weekly update on Conference USA going forward.*
State of Conference USA Men’s Basketball: A Complete and Total Log Jam
Conference USA Men’s Basketball is certainly interesting this season. With Charles Bassey going down and WKU proving human and at times pedestrian after his brutal leg injury, the unanimously selected preseason champions are back down fighting with the peasants. Consequently, one team is undefeated (Charlotte) and very few teams seem inept.
Judging by the NET Rankings, this is absolutely true. Normally, C-USA has a couple of abysmal teams that fall into the low 300s and then the rest of the conference lies spread out between 50 and 300. This season, there are two bad teams (MTSU and Southern Miss) who lie below 300. Then there is a huge gap between them and Rice at 225. All 12 of the other C-USA teams fall between 89 and 225 in the NET Rankings.
What this means is only the sweet lord of heavenly hosts knows what’s going to happen between (likely) the 12 decent teams of C-USA. All 12 teams have no less than six wins and no more than 12. Only two teams have no wins and only one stands undefeated after four (or less) games.
Perhaps some team (like WKU or La Tech) pulls out of the pack and runs away with the first seed, proves to be the dominant team, and puts itself back in the conversation for at minimum an at-large NIT bid, if not on the fringe of an at-large NCAA bid. With the NET, stacking wins and winning by a wide margin can really help. With the quadrant system, being able to claim some decent wins on the road and not losing to bad teams can really boost everything.
That being said, that probably just ain’t happening, somebody is going to win C-USA, and they’re probably not going to be higher than a 13 seed barring somebody getting dominant real quick.
The “Favorites”
Western Kentucky (10–6, 3–1 C-USA, NET: 123) still has to be considered a favorite, but they’ve also proven to be susceptible to spurts of terrible basketball without Charles Bassey. Stepping away from the bizarre “team” concept, the individual talent is still far and away better than the rest of the league. Western still boasts three four-star players, three Kentucky Mr. Basketball’s, and several 1,000 point scorers (some of these are in combination).
The major issue for WKU is now size and depth. Guard Camron Justice, a grad transfer from IUPUI and a former Mr. Basketball, is out this week (and most of last week) with a back issue. That leaves seven players who have remotely been part of the rotation so far this year. With 6'11" Matt Horton seemingly in some version of the dog house, it could fall solely on 6'7" Isaiah Cozart (Kentucky’s all-time leading high school blocks leader) to be a presence down low. WKU has adopted a run-and-gun, pressing type of style (finally) the past few games, and it has seemed to work for the most part. Of late, WKU is holding its opponents down in scoring to make up for its losses of consistent explosive production. That’s a long explanation, mainly because this is a WKU blog. Also, this situation is extremely complicated. Western gets Old Dominion and Charlotte this week, a chance to guarantee a tie for first place.
Louisiana Tech (12–4, 3–1 C-USA, NET: 89) once again seemed like the best team out of the conference in Conference USA, but a random double-digit drubbing at the hands of UTSA really caused everyone to scratch their heads. Then again, maybe UTSA is finally waking up and playing like it has two preseason contenders for Conference Player of the Year (Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace). Despite losing that one game, Louisiana Tech should probably be considered the ever-so-slight actual favorite, but history tells me wait until February on La Tech. These guys always find a way to get somebody kicked off the team or injured (freshman forward Isiah Crawford this year) and show up to February’s game in the middle of the pack.
North Texas (9–8, 3–1 C-USA, NET: 99) has faced an absolutely brutal non-conference schedule and consequently sits considered in the top 100 of the country despite a near .500 record. North Texas had WKU down double digits in Diddle Arena and WKU went on an insane run that can’t be explained by human measurements or they would be undefeated in conference play. They took down Marshall on the road and absolutely throttled the Florida schools, both of which could be dark horse contenders this season. UNT is impressive in person, with a lot of talent and experience. This team is legit, and I almost put this team in the “second tier” simply because of record. Then I looked deeper and quickly realized my mistake. Nothing but respect to the Mean Green right now.
Second Tier
Charlotte (9–5, 3–0 C-USA, NET: 148) has to be given some props here. Sure, they have three squeaker wins against bad to average teams (MTSU, UAB, and ODU), but they’re 3–0 nonetheless. They also seem to be in every game, not losing any of their six (including exhibition against Georgia) losses by any more than nine. This says enough to say that maybe Charlotte has gotten over its doldrums despite legitimate talent (Graduated perennial All-Conference senior Jon Davis now in the D-League) with some great defense. Charlotte only allows around 60 points per game. Watch out for Charlotte if they’re hitting a few shots. Charlotte gets road match-ups at Marshall and WKU. Winning those two would really be a statement.
FAU (11–6, 3–1 C-USA, NET: 195) first of all barely gets this honor. They beat who they should have, but they got absolutely slaughtered by North Texas. They’re 3–1, so let them sit in the second tier for a week and let’s see how they do against Middle and UAB. If they come out 5–1, they’ll almost certainly have to be considered no less than the middle of the pack simply because they’ll be guaranteed at least the second pod heading into pod play, even if they lost every other game. The schedule gets significantly more difficult after this week, but if FAU can win this week and scrape a few more wins, they’ll have a winning conference record heading into pod play.
I Have No Clue Where to Put These Teams
Old Dominion (6–10, 2–1 C-USA, NET: 170) looked dead in the water, and then somehow they beat Middle (not impressive) and UAB (sort of impressive) and lose to Charlotte by six. They’re seven points from being 3–0 in conference despite an abysmal non-conference performance. Old Dominion gets Western and Marshall this week, so we will absolutely have a better idea where they stand. ODU is only a five-point dog at WKU today.
FIU (11–6, 2–2 C-USA, NET: 194) looked a legitimate basketball team so far this season. With a pretty record and momentum heading into conference play, the Golden Panthers actually looked poised to do some damage. Then they barely beat UTEP and UTSA and then get blown out against North Texas and (most unforgivable) lose at Rice by double digits. What in the world, FIU? I have no idea what to do but knock you down two notches from my non-conference opinion. UAB and Middle at home should be an opportunity to get back to 4–2 and look like the dark horse you should be. Why couldn’t FIU be the 4 or 5 seed this year?
UAB (11–6, 2–2 C-USA, NET: 178) is another head-scratcher. They beat WKU and shut the Tops down with some killer defense, have a good overall record, but also lost to Charlotte and Old Dominion the week before? What are we supposed to do with that? UAB could be 13–4 right now if they would have just taken care of business against what probably should have been winnable games on the road. At least split with those two, right? Instead, Head Coach Robert Eshan finds himself in hot water once again to a fan base that is utterly fed up with watching average basketball. UAB gets a solid test in the Florida schools at home. Win at home or you’re in hotter water, bud.
Marshall (8–9, 2–2 C-USA, NET: 189) is way down this year, but also came out and won a couple of conference games against Rice and Middle. Those are not impressive wins, but they beat and lost to who they probably should have, and did it in a way that was respectable (losses by a total of 14 points). Jon Elmore isn’t walking through that door, unfortunately. Adjin Penava isn’t either, and C.J. Burks has moved on, too. Marshall could be OK this year, but don’t expect them to light it up and score 90. They’re more likely to score under 80 this time around.
UTEP (11–7, 2–3 C-USA, NET: 145) has already played its early game this week, winning at home against UTSA by three. Still, that puts the Miners at 2–3 on the young season, having lost three of four against the Florida schools (swept), Southern Miss (win) and La Tech (loss) in addition to their win yesterday. Still, the Miners are supposed to be pretty decent, and showed that out of conference, winning most of their games, including a couple of wins against perennially decent to good New Mexico and New Mexico State. I’m really not sure what to make of them yet, but they’re supposed to be one of the three or four teams poised to make a run at the C-USA title this season. Starting 2–3 against presumable also-rans is not a good start to that quest.
UTSA (8–10, 2–3, NET: 206) is bizarre. They boast two of the best players in the entire country in Keaton Wallace and Jhivvan Jackson. They both could win Player of the Year and were predicted to be possibly one of the few teams that could’ve taken down a Charles Bassey-led WKU over the course of a season, or at least have a puncher’s chance. Instead, they’re way in the bottom half of the entire country in the NET. They’re 2–3 already in conference, and their schedule has been mega soft so far in conference. They still have to face UTEP again and make trips north, far east, and in-state that could all pose trouble to what’s proving to be such a marginal team. UTSA better throw it together quickly or they’re toast. Look for UTSA to provide some major upsets if they do end up not in contention, however.
Rice (9–8, 1–3 C-USA, NET: 225) looks like a solid ball club. Sure, their numbers are not impressive, but they were decent against WKU and FAU. They are certainly capable of scoring this season, averaging nearly 75 points per game. However, the defense struggles, giving up the same amount as the offense. Rice definitely needs to beat Southern Miss and be competitive with La Tech this week to not drop to the “Awful” category in the next addition, but they showed enough in the first two weeks (and non-conference) for me to hold out some type of hope they’ll be decent this season.
Awful
Southern Miss (4–13, 0–4 C-USA, NET: 317) has one win against Division I teams (at home vs. SIU by 3) and has lost each of its four conference games by ten or more points. On an average night, they will show up and lose by eight points. that’s really sad, and USM was pretty good despite a lack of size under Doc Sadler, who mysteriously resigned and returned to Fred Hoiberg to serve as an assistant at Nebraska. He leaves his program devastated, probably knowing losing a ton of seniors and returning no one would have spelled absolute doom for his career at USM anyway. Nonetheless, USM is left to pick up the pieces, and it doesn’t seem like there is so much of a crumb left to eat.
MTSU (4–13, 0–4 C-USA, NET: 320) was just utterly devastated by the departure of Kermit Davis. Not only did some of his talent naturally graduate, but the rest of it simply took off on the program as soon as Kermit was out. Kermit truly built MTSU into a legit program for the first time in its history. MTSU was finally respectable and made the NCAA Tournament on the regular (something WKU could not say recently). Middle gets FAU and FIU to try to get on the board in C-USA. With the inconsistency of both, maybe they have a shot, although both games are on the road. If Middle still hasn’t won and can’t get a win against Southern Miss at home on January 25, they may not win another game all year. It’s really sad for a program that has been the program in Conference USA and the Sun Belt the last decade.
State of Conference USA Women’s Basketball: Excellent With Interesting Possibilities
Conference USA Women’s Basketball is in a fascinating position. It has not happened in a long time that no less than four C-USA teams sit in the top 50 in the RPI. The conference would seem to be quite top-heavy, but then again, the only undefeated team in the conference is preseason favorite Rice, and they are not one of the four teams in the top 50 despite a one-point loss to current #12 ranked Texas A&M in Houston. In addition, every team in the conference has at least one win through only two weeks of the conference season. In addition, similar to the men, all but one team is no worse than three games under .500 overall.
That alone is bizarre. Big picture, C-USA has its four-team cluster in the 40s, and then it jumps to Rice in the 140s and four other teams in the top 200, and then five teams ranked 240 or lower. Basically, you have about six “haves”, a few “maybe might”, and a bunch of “have-nots”. Ultimately, there are a ton of really good teams at the top and then a bunch of teams that just can’t hold a candle to the upper tier.
What this ultimately means is that if two or three teams could separate themselves as the elite and keep their sterling resumes into the last few games, they could then feed off of each other (as they progress through the tournament) and boost one another’s resumes by providing quality opponents late in the season. A caveat to this would be if the entire conference acts like a normal conference and beats everyone up and everyone ends up losing out on possible at-large bids.
This should be extremely interesting, but with that many good teams (and four of the six best are travel partners), this at-large thing could actually happen for C-USA.
The Ridiculous (ly separated from the rest but somehow not) 6
Rice (9–6, 4–0, RPI: 142) is inexplicably in the 140s in the RPI. Go look at their schedule, their performance, and their margins of victory and defeat and fathom how they’re not at least a top 100 team in the country. They almost beat a (then) top-5 team in Texas A&M. They’re the preseason conference favorites, and they confirmed how good they were by defeating WKU in the first week of the conference slate. This team still has one Ogwumike sister and Nancy Mulkey, a massive player that can shoot from outside. Mulkey always goes to town on the Tops, perhaps because she was at Greenwood High School and never really got recruited despite dominating, having a coach mom, and being 6'7". It also may just be because she’s freaking 6'7" and can shoot.
Middle Tennessee (10–6, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 49) is probably the best performing team in the conference so far. It’s two losses in conference are to top-50 teams in ODU and WKU, and their non-conference resume is absolutely stunning. Without getting into massive detail, one loss is to Belmont (90th in RPI). All others are to top 50 opponents, and none of the losses were by more than 15. They were competitive in every game, mainly because of their amazing team defense. Despite not being massive down low, they have some girth that keeps opponents away from the front of the rim. Middle gets a chance to stack some wins at home against FAU and FIU this week.
Old Dominion (12–3, 2–1 C-USA, RPI: 44) is coached by a true miracle worker. Much like the job Michelle Clark-Heard did in taking a once-proud program and turning it back into a juggernaut, Nikki McCray has turned ODU from a total joke a few years ago to a top 50 team, seemingly overnight. Her players play with murderous intensity, and they don’t lose to teams they shouldn’t. ODU’s only loss in conference so far is to UAB, which despite boasting a 1–3 record is absolutely a possible champion in the conference. Old Dominion draws WKU and Marshall this week. If ODU could beat WKU, it really establishes them as a legitimate contender. Losing to the Tops, especially if it’s decisive, creates a little bit of doubt for them moving forward.
Western Kentucky (10–5, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 47) got into a funk late in the non-conference slate, and it carried into the first two conference games, handing Rice a victory despite having a lead and allowing North Texas, a team that’s not very good, to shut them down offensively. WKU then immediately got back on track, hosting and beating UAB (2018 regular-season conference champions) and blitzing MTSU in the fourth quarter in an otherwise even match-up.
WKU is far from perfect, but the Tops were rolling over quality opponents in November and early December before hitting the aforementioned funk. Without that funk, WKU could easily be a borderline top 25 team. WKU can both score and defend, but perhaps the greatest change from last year to this year is the development of Whitney Creech. Creech was hardly a factor last season, but now she averages way into the double digits and contributes on the boards, leads the team in assists, and is very active defensively.
Charlotte (10–4, 1–2 C-USA, RPI: 48) was good in the non-conference again. Much like Louisiana Tech on the men’s side, Charlotte always seems to be good and then loses early in conference and never recovers. Charlotte is already sitting with two losses in conference, but this time, Charlotte has face three of the five other contenders to start the year. That’s forgivable, especially considering two of three were on the road. To prove their quality, Charlotte has two Power Five victories this season. Charlotte gets Marshall Thursday and a huge clash with WKU Saturday.
UAB (9–7, 1–3 C-USA, RPI: 160) is a little shaky on this top line here, but there’s no question they’re very talented and capable of winning the conference. UAB did lose to Marshall, a questionable loss at best, but other than that, the Blazers played ODU, Charlotte, and WKU to start the season. That’s not a disaster to only win of the three. UAB could easily get back in the hunt with six games in a row against non-top tier contenders. They need to string together some wins, but UAB could easily come into its contest at Rice at 6–4 or better.
The Respectable (for now) 8
UTEP (10–5, 3–1 C-USA, RPI: 198) is certainly on the fringe of being a decent team and certainly could work its way into a bye or close to it if it continues stacking wins. This is a quality team, but a real contender would probably have done better against a weak non-conference, or to show real contention for a C-USA crown, sweep inferior teams to start conference play. Losing at La Tech and giving up 87 points makes me wonder about their quality when dealing with teams that can defend.
Southern Miss (10–4, 2–1 C-USA, RPI: 194) is once again pretty good. Joy Lee-McNelis is a true legend of women’s basketball, and she always has her team playing decent to very good basketball. She may not get the best recruits, but she maximizes her talent like no one else in C-USA. Her team already has one of the best records in Conference USA, and they already won two of their three games, one of which was against a pretty good opponent in travel partner, La Tech. They still haven’t done anything to wow us, but always watch Southern Miss for success. Be surprised if they’re not respectable. USM gets UNT and conference-leading Rice Saturday. Sweeping or just beating Rice would really announce themselves as somebody to pay attention to.
Louisiana Tech (9–5, 1–2 C-USA, RPI: 240) is always respectable. Despite a bad RPI, they’re 9–5 and capable of beating anyone in C-USA. Losing to Southern Miss and UTSA did put them on the back foot, and now they face five of their next six of the legitimate contenders in C-USA. Perhaps they can do some damage to these teams. Otherwise, they could be looking at 1–8 or 2–7 in conference to start the year simply because of a rough schedule and bad early losses.
FAU (8–7, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 189) is just inconsistent. They played well against a few teams, but like a team that probably wouldn’t compete for a championship as a mid-major, they generally get absolutely blown out by power conference teams. Their conference performance is up and down, showing up decently against Rice (L by 9) but also needing to two overtimes to beat North Texas and getting blown completely out by UTEP. FAU gets Middle and UAB on the road this week, so splitting would do wonders for the Owls’ confidence.
Marshall (7–8, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 284) looked like utter trash heading into conference, but beating UAB and North Texas is nice performance for a team that was outside the top 300 in the RPI before conference play. Marshall is probably not going to compete, but beating quality teams at all certainly means quality teams should not take them lightly. Marshall gets Charlotte and ODU at home. Splitting or sweeping would really mess with the conference hierarchy.
UTSA (6–9, 2–2 C-USA, RPI: 294) looked lifeless, but conference play has given them a new lease on life, at least for now. Beating La Tech is a big win, and so is any other win for a team with four non-conference wins. UTSA should be exposed within its next several weeks. Quality teams lie in wait at least once a week until late February.
North Texas (7–9, 1–3 C-USA, RPI: 264) beat Western Kentucky so that immediately is impressive. However, they also turned around and lost to Marshall (bad), FIU (awful), and FAU (understandable). Without question, Western was still in a funk from its non-conference mess at the end of 2019. That’s the only explanation I can come up with because those three losses are hideous. However, that one win against WKU technically forces us to pause before we say North Texas shouldn’t win more than five games in conference.
FIU (4–11, 1–3 C-USA, RPI: 310) found a way against North Texas, but this team is awful. I was being nice to these final two teams in this category, mainly because it is really amazing that everyone has at least one win and each of those teams that have a win either beat a team that was good or beat a team that beat a team that was good. That is FIU’s case. FIU beat North Texas, who beat Western Kentucky. Technically, that means they could beat just about anyone, so let’s wait another week before we order the headstone.