CUSA Football: State of Conference USA on October 11th
Conference USA football is really starting to take shape now, and with this week’s slate of games, we will really start to see who is for…
Conference USA football is really starting to take shape now, and with this week’s slate of games, we will really start to see who is for real.
Western Kentucky, MTSU, FAU, La Tech, USM, and UNT all sit undefeated so far in C-USA. Middle and FAU play each other, and North Texas and Southern Miss go at it this week. That will clarify most of the picture, but again, we won’t know until after the next week, when all of the major contenders play each other (with the exception of WKU). At that point, all teams will have played at least three games and everyone will have faced at least one legit threat to win its division.
With that being said, there is still so much room for each team to step up or fold. Only three teams sit with two or more losses already, so in theory, most every other team is in it at the moment.
State of Conference USA Football: East Division
Established Contenders
Western Kentucky (3–2, 3–0 C-USA) is now officially in the driver’s seat. Does anybody really believe WKU is going to win the C-USA East? I’m not sure. I think at the Towel Rack as a whole, we’re starting to get there that WKU could legitimately contend but not everyone is there yet. This 3–0 start is truly out of nowhere, so we’re (and probably everyone is) still trying to figure out if this is legit. I have my doubts, mainly because of WKU’s offense. However, WKU’s defense has given up 10 points per game in Conference and 20 overall. That includes two defensive touchdowns, so really WKU gives up about 17 per game and right at 300 yards per game. That certainly could and should win a championship with a decent to good offense.
If WKU’s offense was a little better, I believe this would be your for real undisputed #1 contender. WKU gets Army at home this week, so it’s basically a freebie opportunity to garner another win for bowl eligibility and intimidate the rest of C-USA. If WKU loses, no big deal because Army is favored and probably should be. Doing a little bit of math, with almost everyone still needing to play each other, WKU probably needs to finish 7–1 to win the East. Very few scenarios would play out the WKU could not reach that mark and not make the conference USA championship.
Florida Atlantic (3–2, 1–0 C-USA) has done nothing so far to make them look like anything but a pretty good football team. Getting blown out but producing against ranked opponents? Not bad. Winning easily against Group of Five also-rans? Meh. They haven’t really done anything to blow me away, but they show tendencies to be able to produce against anyone. In their lone Conference USA game so far, the Owls handled Charlotte quite easily. Quarterback Chris Robison seems to have elevated his game. FAU gets Middle Tennessee this week in a battle that will set the hierarchy for true possible representatives from the East.
For FAU to make the Conference USA championship, like WKU, they also probably need to get to 7-1. However, unlike WKU, they still have to face all of the contenders in the East and face UTSA and Southern Miss from the West. They have a lot of work to do and do not get a break from conference play from here on out, but they are certainly probably in the best position to win it besides WKU. If they beat Middle and beat WKU, they could lose one of their other games and would make it at 7–1. Certainly from a combination of talent and a margin for error standpoint, they should probably be the favorite over WKU. The only reason they’re below is simply math. The chances any team wins six of seven is always going to be less than a team that needs to win four of five.
Middle Tennessee (2–3, 1–0 C-USA) is proving to still be competitive without graduated senior citizen Brent Stockstill. Quarterback Asher O'Hara has been solid and their defense was a turnover machine against a now reeling Marshall. They’re still a slight mystery with three P5 blowouts mixed in with their victories. It’s possible Middle could fade into oblivion over the next few weeks. However, one of the two teams in the preseason that was predicted to dethrone them has already lost to them (Marshall). With 100 Miles of Hate coming as the last game of the season, Middle just needs to win Saturday against FAU and win 5-of-6 and then beat WKU. That formula would work out for them quite well and (virtually) guarantee a spot in the East. FAU is probably the biggest obstacle for that equation, though.
Outside Looking In
Marshall (2–3, 0–1 C-USA) seemed to be the sexy favorite until last week when they lost to Middle Tennessee. Now Marshall is in complete desperation mode. Quarterback Isiah Green has been atrocious and the dam seems to have broken defensively. Marshall needs Middle to lose Probably twice and also needs to win basically every game from here on out. Lose in the first one and it’s just really devastating and it really just nearly crippled your hopes for a championship. Losing at the beginning suggests weakness, but not always. If Marshall gets its act together, they seemed the best team for the first four weeks of the season.
Charlotte (2–3, 0–1) seems to be next in line, but that could change with a clash at FIU this week. Charlotte then gets WKU the week after. Charlotte has already lost to FAU, so for them to do anything this year, they need to win out and get help. Here’s the bottom line for Charlotte: They need a better defense. Their offense is near championship level. However, they can’t stop the opposing team from loading onto their bus before the game. Because of their offense, I do see them as a serious match-up problem for FIU and WKU in the coming weeks and even Middle and Marshall later on. I could see Charlotte wreaking havoc on the race, simply because they could outscore an anemic opponent.
FIU (2–3, 0–2 C-USA) is still a decent football team despite its record. It’s unfortunate for the Golden Panthers that they have already lost two games in conference. They faced what is apparently the two front runners in the two divisions, so it’s really unknown how good they actually are within Conference USA. Regardless, the two losses are incredibly damning for their championship hopes, especially considering WKU likely needs to lose three of its next five for FIU to finish ahead of them.
If they can stay healthy, they should be a threat to everyone they play from here on out. Quarterback James Morgan has recovered from early-season injuries and the team has played better as of late. If they stay competitive and win several more games, they should still be vying for bowl games and other possibilities. They are not mathematically eliminated, but they are virtually to that point. If they want any chance at all, they cannot misstep. They still have Marshall, Middle, and FAU. That is not a friendly road to bowl eligibility.
Old Dominion (1–4, 0–1 C-USA) may possibly have the best defense in the conference, especially considering they have absolutely zero help from their offense. Old Dominion is dangerous because of their defense, especially because their defense forces a significant amount of turnovers, in addition to just not allowing opponents to move the football. If Bobby Wilder can keep his team interested, I believe this team is good for at least a couple of wins in conference. The problem is they’re already 1–4 and will be favored in maybe one or two games the rest of the way if at all. With breaking them down last week for the WKU game, I believe this team has an opportunity to improve next year. However this year, Wilder is trying to keep his job and it’s a matter o of how the team plays for him moving forward.
East Division Summary
The East division is really more cut and dry because a few teams have played some games in conference. The way it is played out so far, it really seems like one loss in conference will get it done in the East. That may not be completely true, because there are still three capable teams left undefeated. However, this feels like any of the four teams could win it. Really, five could (FIU), but one is already out. It is not clear which of six teams will actually get there at this point, but seven wins seem to be the formula for a championship appearance.
There is no true dominant force. FAU is the only team currently that seems capable of going undefeated. But even they have some serious question marks. This should lead to a fascinating finish to the season because all of the preseason favorites with the exception of FIU are still in with a chance. In addition, WKU has come out of nowhere to act like the favorite of all of them. However, WKU cannot produce much more than 400 yards of offense. WKU has issues at backup running back, receiver, and quarterback. Defensively, WKU could use another productive linebacker. Yet there they sit in the best spot six weeks into the season.
State of Conference USA Football: West Division
Established Contenders
Louisiana Tech (4–1, 2–0 C-USA) sits at the top of the West Division at 2–0. However, unlike WKU in the East, Tech has beaten two teams that will not win Conference USA this year (FIU), and one was in overtime (Rice). We really don’t know where they stand, but every indication seems to be that they should definitely be in the top three in the West. Quarterback J’Mar Smith is now a senior and has been solid but not spectacular & Tech’s defense has been very average allowing 412 yards per game. They get fellow west contender Southern Miss next week, so that will certainly shuffle the pecking order once again.
Probable Contenders
North Texas (2–3, 1–0 C-USA) is really the favorite here, but they do face Southern Miss Saturday. That is an absolute must-win game. If they get past that, they will certainly move into a more clear position. North Texas has a great quarterback (Mason Fine) and overall a really good offense. The defense may not be elite, but it is still good enough. The Mean Green is still a little bit of mystery after struggling outside of the conference like most of the league. North Texas, just like the rest of the West still has to face all the quality teams in its remaining conference schedule. UNT gets Middle right after USM. The West is a craps shoot with four really good teams. No one should feel comfortable even losing one game in the East at this point. Plenty of teams on this side have enough firepower to win eight games in a row.
Southern Miss (3–2, 1–0 C-USA) is right there with everyone else. Their offense has taken off with quarterback Jack Abraham producing at an all-conference level. The Golden Eagles take on North Texas this week in a battle for positioning for the rest of the year. If Southern Miss can win its next two against the Mean Green and Louisiana Tech, it certainly establishes them as top-tier and possibly the very top favorite. North Texas is the team to beat, so beating them is a big deal. La Tech is atop the conference at the moment and will be heading into that game after a bye. Southern Miss also has a solid defense. Their combination of offense and defense put them towards the favorites to actually win the conference at this point.
UAB (4–1, 1–1 C-USA) seems to have taken a step back from last year‘s greatness (losing 36 seniors will do that). However, they’re 4–1 overall, so it’s not like they’re a terrible team. Losing to Western really makes it pretty essential that they win the rest of their conference games. If they do, they will win the West. UAB was toe-to-toe with Rice before pulling away late in the weather-delayed game. This team feels fragile, but if they pull it back together and win the rest of their games, they would win the west. The options are pretty simple for UAB. Win all of them or don’t win the championship this year. They’ve got the talent and defense to accomplish it but it remains to be seen if this year's team will get there. They’ve got an easy schedule (UTSA, ODU, bye) before closing November against an SEC team (Tennessee) and all of the CUSA West contenders so we may not know about the Blazers for a while.
Outside Looking In
Next in line is probably UTSA (2–3, 1–1 C-USA). The Road Runners already have one blowout loss to North Texas. One loss is not a death sentence, but it really puts them behind the eight ball. Also, losing by 42 suggests a serious lack of ability to compete consistently with the best. After handling UTEP in a low scoring affair by ten, they face UAB in what is basically an elimination game for the conference championship race. Obviously, if UTSA could beat the defending champion, that would put them in the conversation again. Head coach Frank Wilson is firmly on the hot seat and if the Road Runners don’t make a bowl he’ll probably be gone after the season.
Rice (0–6, 0–2 C-USA) may not win more than a couple of games this year, but they are not a God awful, consider axing the program type of bad. They just had a brutal schedule (Army, Wake Forest, Texas & Baylor) that basically gave them zero margin for error and immediately needed to win games in conference. They are already out of the race, but each of their games has been extremely close (besides Texas). If Rice was on my schedule, I would not assume a win at all. Don’t be shocked if they upset one of the contenders during a random week this year.
Finally, UTEP (1–4, 0–2 C-USA) comes in as the very bottom member of Conference USA. It’s a very familiar spot for the Miners, and it really seems like their ceiling may be two or three wins. However, doing that would be an improvement from the last couple of years. UTEP is CUSA isolated school out on their island in El Paso and it doesn’t seem like Football is going to take a leap anytime soon. UTEP’s lone win was against Houston Baptist by two points. The Miners are yet to come within ten points since. It will be interesting to see if they’ll show growth as the season trudges along under second-year coach Dana Dimel.
West Division Summary
Just like last week’s version of the State of Conference USA, the West is much more up for grabs. It’s not clear if someone is going to dominate and win all the games or if one or two losses could get it done this year. My gut says the top four teams in the West are too good to not beat each other up. I would say one or both divisions could end up with a 6–2 representative. Like I said earlier, four teams seem to be head and shoulder above the other three. UTSA seems to be the Charlotte of the West, being that they could upset some people but won’t win the division. UTEP and Rice are cellar dwellers.
Overall State of Conference USA: Translucent
Mathematically Alive: Everyone
True Contenders: WKU, FAU, MTSU, Marshall, La Tech, USM, North Texas, and UAB
Virtually Eliminated: FIU, UTEP, and Rice
On the Ropes: UAB, Charlotte, ODU, Marshall, and UTSA
Teams In It That Won’t Be: Charlotte, ODU, and UTSA
Last week, I said the conference was opaque. Basically you had a visual, but you have no idea what you’re really looking at. This week, at least the hierarchy is set. We have actual data on everyone. However, it’s so early that basically anyone could still hope for success. Just like last week, there are still a ton of mathematical contenders. However, with conference play finally kicking into full gear, within two weeks, we should be down to about five possibilities.
We think we are down to eight remotely possible contenders, and two of those are on the ropes. Two more will be in the loss column after this week, and three more teams will be added to the list of three virtually eliminated from contention.
As we mentioned, WKU has the easiest road going forward, only needing to win four of five games. However, WKU probably has the weakest offense of the contenders. After beating Marshall, perhaps MTSU has the next most simple path to returning to the C-USA Championship. After that, the road is difficult at the moment, but as teams tick off wins, life gets easier and cut and dry for the top contenders. Losers get shuffled backwards, hoping to get lucky after blowing their opportunity.