CUSA Football: State of Conference USA on October 2nd

College football is officially one month into the 2019–20 season. Teams are not completely solidified as busts or successes, but we also…

College football is officially one month into the 2019–20 season. Teams are not completely solidified as busts or successes, but we also now have a really good idea of where most seem to be headed.

Things will be different in November and December, but for now, let’s take a look at where Conference USA’s 14 teams stand.

Two are already completely out, and two have already proven to be at worst contenders.

Let’s dig in.

The East Division

At this point, everyone that doesn’t have two losses is (in theory) a contender. However, we pretty much can group certain teams as legitimate threats to win, legitimate threats to compete but not win, teams that in theory have a chance but probably don’t or won’t, and teams that are already out of it or teams we know just don’t have the capability.

The East Contenders

Marshall (2–2, 0–0 C-USA) has yet to face a conference opponent but has made plenty of (for the most part good) noise this season. However, losing at home to Cincinnati 52–14 and starting the game down 45–0 is a stunning turn of events. Cincinnati is 3–1, but was blown out by Ohio State 42–0 and played other no names. Before this game, Marshall looked like a legit favorite to win the East for sure. I still think they are, but was this a sign of taking a step backward? Time will tell. Marshall plays four teams from the East Division in October, including current division leader, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee, the defending East champion. Get through those and they’ll be the clear favorite.

Florida Atlantic (3–2, 1–0 C-USA) takes their bye week this week after handling Charlotte 45–27, but the Owls will then play the rest of the East Division and then face UTSA and Southern Miss to finish the season. Conference play is tough, but FAU will certainly be battle-tested from here on out. The only two somewhat foregone conclusions should be Old Dominion and UTSA, but those are on the road. FAU seems to be pretty good, but they will have to overcome a difficult remaining schedule.

Western Kentucky (2–2, 2–0 C-USA) is officially the absolute early-season surprise of C-USA. The Hilltoppers start the season losing to Central Arkansas, but then they follow it up with a bizarre turnaround, beating FIU on the road. If that is not impressive enough, after losing to Louisville by 17, WKU turns around and beats UAB in Bowling Green. What in the world? WKU was picked fifth in their division, and frankly, that felt about right. With two huge wins under its belt, doesn’t the road get easier from here if you can beat the defending champ? There is no other place to put WKU than as a contender.

Until they lose, they are in the driver’s seat with the least amount of work to do moving forward. Another very interesting piece to WKU’s schedule is the layout. While most teams in C-USA don’t get much of a break from conference play, WKU does not play more than three conference games in a row all season. For example, now they have a game at ODU (slight favorite), Army at home, and Charlotte (likely a solid favorite) at home. What a great opportunity for WKU to get to at least 4–0 before facing Marshall! Perhaps that odd schedule will help break up the monotony and be a nice recipe for freshness all year. WKU has no game remaining on its schedule that seems like an impossible feat.

The East Pretenders

Middle Tennessee (1–3, 0–0 C-USA) is still in the conversation. Don’t get me wrong, but replacing Brent Stockstill is going to be difficult. Also, Middle has struggled to stop anybody so far this season. They give up over 500 yards per game, have only forced four turnovers, and have given up no less than 26 points in every game. This last game, the Blue Raiders were held to just three points. Ultimately, I don’t see Middle competing, mainly because they have obvious weaknesses and their opening schedule is brutal. This is a “show me” type of situation for me. If Middle can get through Marshall, FAU, and North Texas at 2–1 or better, we’ll officially welcome them back to the top group. No problem.

Old Dominion (1–3, 0–0 C-USA) is perhaps the most impressive 1–3 team in the country. They are yet to actually win an important game, and that three point-shaving of a win against Norfolk State sure isn’t impressive. However, Old Dominion has been in every game on the season, despite playing Virginia Tech, Virginia, and ECU. That may be the toughest schedule of anyone in Conference USA so far besides Middle Tennessee. WKU comes to Norfolk Saturday, followed by Marshall, UAB, and FAU, so the truth shall be known quickly. If you catch my drift here, this picture is going to come into focus really quick for everyone.

Already in Desperation Mode in the East

Charlotte (2–3, 0–1 C-USA) is much improved under new head coach Will Healy. That being said, their defense is still pretty awful. However, the offense seems to be formidable, so perhaps Charlotte could outscore a team like FIU or WKU in the middle of October. Teams like that could struggle to score enough against formidable offenses. Charlotte is already in the hole due to a loss at home to FAU, so now they must win at least six of seven games. I struggle seeing them winning more than three at best. Mark my words, though: Buy Charlotte stock right now. They’re on the move upward without a doubt.

FIU (1–3, 0–2 C-USA) is absolutely the most disappointing member of Conference USA thus far. After getting blown out by Tulane (a good but not great AAC team), FIU parlayed that struggle with a stunning loss at home to WKU. They utterly dominated despite a close game, FIU turned around and beat New Hampshire by 13 and lost at La Tech by double digits. There’s no shame in losing to what are apparently two of C-USA’s best this year, but the bottom line for the Panthers is they have to win every game and hope they can find a way to six wins. If they want any hope at an East Division crown, they need to win every game remaining in conference and get some help.

The West Division

With UAB losing to WKU and La Tech starting off 2–0, the West seems to be even more of a jumbled mess than the East. We have an idea about the East, but no one really knows what could happen in the West. No team seems to be superior and few seem inept. There are completely different styles in the West, as well. Those style differences could mean games come completely down to the match-up and having nothing to with the actual quality of football. The West is much more of a guess than the East seems to be.

The West Contenders

North Texas (2–3, 1–0 C-USA) has not completely shown its cards yet. However, quarterback Mason Fine is just like his name suggests: Hardworking and a heck of a player. He’s a pro-level talent, and he alone is going to allow UNT to score some points. UNT has played two good AAC teams (vs. Houston and at SMU) and a Pac-12 school (at Cal), along with beating Abilene Christian by 20 and UTSA 45–3 two weeks ago. UTSA is not supposed to be a complete slouch, but the Road Runners are 1–3 on the early season. Nonetheless, that win was pretty impressive. However, there is not enough there to know that we know that UNT should be the favorite or not. Facing Southern Miss and Middle should resolve the unknown quantity fairly quickly.

Lousiana Tech (4–1, 2–0 C-USA) was picked third and seems to be living up to expectation, according to their early record. However, the only opponent of significance was Texas, who blew them out. In conference, La Tech has a fairly convincing victory against FIU, but an overtime squeaker against Rice sure leaves room for doubt. Also concerning, with nearly half of their season in the books, La Tech allows well over 400 yards per game defensively.

Southern Miss (3–2, 1–0 C-USA) has been fairly impressive in the early season. A team known for its excellent defense, USM has also shown it can score a little bit, as well. USM has been respectable against Power Five opponents, took care of business against inferior foes, and won an impressive shootout against Troy. USM seems able to win in multiple ways, along with just being a pretty good all-around squad. Watch for USM. They certainly have a tough schedule, facing WKU and FAU from the East, but they should play a factor in the race for the West.

The West Pretenders

UAB (3–1, 0–1 C-USA) is certainly not out of it with one loss, but knowing WKU inside and out, the current version of the Hilltoppers is a flawed squad, although they are much improved. UAB was unable to take advantage of an early-season opportunity, and now they sit in virtual desperation mode for the rest of the season. However, they do have a pattycake type of schedule for the next three weeks, drawing Rice, UTSA, and Old Dominion. That is about as nice of a draw as one could hope for in conference play. UAB should get through those three unscathed, but the problem is if they don’t, their hopes for a repeat appearance in the C-USA Championship pretty much go up in flames.

UTSA (1–3, 0–1 C-USA) is probably not going to compete for a championship this year, but if they could find a way to beat UAB, the schedule opens up nicely for an opportunity to beat some bottom feeders. It’s not that UTSA has the firepower, but seeing Rice and ODU to finish out October could mean a false hope of contention for the Road Runners. With these two facing off in a week and a half, one will pretty much be eliminated from contention.

Desperation Mode

UTEP (1–3, 0–1 C-USA) is slowly getting there. It must be difficult to recruit to El Paso, Texas, plus once you get into such a hole for a length of time in most of your major sports, everyone knows your programs are fighting an uphill battle. UTEP will probably win two or three games this year, which is better than the 0–12 output they had a few years ago. However, don’t count on much production from the Miners this season. If UTSA doesn’t completely knock them out of contention, FIU, La Tech, and/or North Texas should knock them out of the race with emphasis.

Rice (0–5, 0–1 C-USA) has been battered and bruised to start the season. They played a brutal schedule to this point and honestly showed up well against La Tech in the first conference game. However, losing that first game is usually pretty damning. The schedulers didn’t do them any favors, pitting them against MTSU and Marshall from the East Division. Rice may have realistic prayer for about three wins, but that would include upsetting a pretty good team (pick one of five remaining) and UTSA, along with beating UTEP at the end of the year. This looks like a completely disastrous year for Rice already. It could get even worse if they don’t find a way to score an upset or two very quickly. Three wins is a miracle season at this point.

Overall State of Conference USA: Opaque

The Conference USA Soup is stirring, and it’s still a complete mystery as to whether it’s going to turn out as we suspect. There’s no telling what happens the rest of the season. The teams with zeroes in the loss column have not played each other, which sort of changes this week. Four conference games are played this week, and only one has a spread higher than a touchdown (UAB vs. Rice). Two more teams in the East will have losses, and two more teams in the West will have two losses, pretty much eliminating those teams from contention.

Still, after it all, we won’t know much about FAU, North Texas, or Southern Miss. All are certainly hot favorites, and all are idle this week. And what about the games in the East? If Marshall loses to Middle, doesn’t that create more confusion? Regardless of the ODU/WKU result, will anyone be able to definitively say if either is any good? In the West, if UAB wins, they’re a mystery, and if UTSA wins, they could go on a run for several games.

To summarize, any of the 14 teams could theoretically win Conference USA. We can place teams like Charlotte, Rice, UTEP, and La Tech somewhere with pretty solid confidence. However, the other 10 teams (and La Tech, who has proven their quality) could realistically compete at this point. I would challenge anyone to pick the West and East winner right now. I would take the field with any combination without hesitation.