CUSA Hoops: State of Conference USA — March 1
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. We’re now looking at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus. This week, we delve further into the different levels of the conference races heading into the final week of the season.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball in 2016–17. The women’s side was 16th. With one week remaining in the regular season, Conference USA stands 15th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
Conference USA Tournament seeding is determined in order as follows:
Conference Win/Loss Record
Head-to-head
Winning percentage against each conference opponent in descending order according to the final standings. For example, if the top two seeds split their games, the conference then looks at both teams’ records against the third seed, then fourth, fifth, etc. until a difference in winning percentage is found.
Today, we look at C-USA seed lines and NCAA Tournament chances.
Men’s Basketball
This week in Conference USA men’s basketball should be extraordinary. In perhaps the most anticipated version of 100 Miles of Hate in its significant history, Middle Tennessee hosts Western Kentucky in a battle that will most likely decide the regular season conference champion. If that alone wasn’t enough, both teams are still clinging to hopes of an at-large bid. A loss by either would likely dash any hope for help outside of winning the Conference USA Tournament. In addition, Old Dominion could play a factor for the second seed if WKU were to stumble twice to end the season. Has any other regular season game been more significant in the history of that rivalry?
Other battles have formed for seeding and byes. Marshall and UTSA are battling for the final spot in the top four, which would guarantee a bye in the first round of the conference tournament for the higher seed and create an obvious advantage.
The tournament field is nearly set. Texas-El Paso is currently placed in the final spot, but current 13th place Rice plays UTEP Thursday night. If Rice were to win out and UTEP to lose their final two, Rice would leapfrog UTEP. Charlotte is the only mathematically eliminated team.
None of the 12 available seeds are locked in, and many of the teams battling for seed lines play each other. This week could go down as one of the best in recent memory.
Title Contenders
MTSU (22–5, 14–1 C-USA, RPI: 24, BPI: 43, SOS: 94, AP/Coaches: 24/24) is still the favorite, but the margin has somewhat slimmed with WKU playing so well. Make no mistake, though: Middle is still the favorite. Until someone knocks them off of their pedestal, they are and will be the favorite. However, MTSU has two tough tests in WKU and Marshall this week. Both have already amassed 20 or more wins and are at or below the top 100 in most ratings systems.
MTSU will be the 1 or 2 seed in the C-USA Tournament. If Middle beats WKU, they secure the one seed. If WKU takes down MTSU, it becomes a question of tiebreakers. If MTSU loses to WKU, MTSU fans should cheer for UTSA to finish ahead of Marshall to earn a tiebreaker. MTSU is currently projected as an 11 seed by most publications. With a win against WKU, Middle could move up a seed line. Middle could receive between a 9 and a 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and is still considered a likely at-large team if they were to stumble in the C-USA Tournament.
WKU (20–7, 12–2 C-USA, RPI: 54, BPI: 56, SOS: 105) has been quite impressive recently. WKU has won five in a row by an average of 17 points, scoring 90 a game. The Hilltoppers most recently dominated an ODU team that had won nine games in a row on the road, the longest road streak in the nation. Before the past few weeks, WKU seemed to be struggling to find its early season magic. However, WKU looks every bit as good as MTSU. Western has hit 55% or more of its shots in its last five games.
WKU can finish anywhere between the 1 and the 3 seed in C-USA. The Toppers must win out to likely finish first, lose out to finish third, or would stay put at second with any other results. WKU is likely out of the at-large picture, but has a glimmer of hope if they can win out until the Conference USA Championship Game. With impressive wins on its resume, WKU would probably slot in between a 10 and 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
3rd Wheel
Old Dominion (21–5, 12–2 C-USA, RPI: 71, BPI: 60, SOS: 207) was utterly dominated in Bowling Green this Saturday. However, ODU is still one of the best teams in the league and is a legitimate contender for the C-USA title. The Monarchs are now out of the race for first with Middle sweeping this week and is holding on for prayers for second. With one more win, WKU would solidify its spot in the top two and slot Old Dominion in third.
Old Dominion is almost certainly C-USA’s three seed barring unforeseen circumstances. Despite its strong overall record, ODU has faced a weak schedule and may only draw a 13 or 14 seed in The Big Dance if it was to win Conference USA in March.
Battle for the Final Bye
Marshall (19–8, 10–4 C-USA, RPI: 118, BPI: 135, SOS: 215) dropped a tough contest against Old Dominion at home and manhandled Charlotte as would be expected. Marshall is dangerous, raining threes from everywhere. Marshall is one of those teams that could beat or lose to anyone in the country.
Ultimately, the Thundering Herd is either finishing fourth or fifth in the conference. With only four byes, Marshall certainly needs to find a way to prove itself as the fourth best team in C-USA. However, UTSA is one game behind, and if Marshall stumbles, UTSA could steal the final bye in C-USA. With games against UAB and Middle, Marshall must be sharp, or it will find itself missing a first-round bye despite looking like a shoe-in halfway through the season. Marshall would probably find itself staring at a 13 to 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
UTSA (12–12, 8–6 C-USA, RPI: 181, BPI: 195, SOS: 220) has continued to impress late in the season. Winners of seven out of eight, the Roadrunners have put themselves in a tight battle with Marshall. However, UTSA’s fantastic freshman Jhivvan Jackson went down Saturday with an apparently serious knee injury. No further word has come out on Jackson officially.
UTSA has come from nowhere to be guaranteed at least the fifth seed with a week to go. As mentioned, UTSA is in a hot battle with Marshall for the final bye. Despite its recent surge, UTSA would be seeded no better than 14 in an NCAA Tournament field. Still a threat to make some noise in C-USA.
Competing for Seeding
UAB (17–11, 8–7 C-USA, RPI: 187, BPI: 115, SOS: 226) is now just the current “best of the rest”. With a mediocre middle of C-USA, UAB could hold its spot at 6th or fall as low as 11th. With UAB’s recent play, the latter seems more likely than the former with Marshall and WKU coming to town this week. What a shocking end to the season for UAB: From contender to disaster. Regardless, if the Blazers found a way to pull themselves together and win C-USA, they would be hard-pressed to garner higher than a 15 seed.
North Texas (14–13, 7–7 C-USA, RPI: 215, BPI: 205, SOS: 219) has suddenly dropped five in a row with a tough UTSA team with hopes for a bye coming into Denton Thursday. Instead of being the dark horse pick for the C-USA Touranment, North Texas should feel lucky to finish with a single digit seed at this point. Due to tiebreakers, North Texas could finish anywhere from 6th to 12th. With their recent skid, UNT would be fortunate to pull off anything besides a 16 seed in the Big Dance at this point.
FIU (11–16, 5–9 C-USA, RPI: 294, BPI: 269, SOS: 283) was 5–3 in the month of February after a horrible rest of the year. The Golden Panthers have frankly shown promise all year but under-performed. Now that FIU is playing decently, I would pay attention to FIU in the C-USA Tournament. They won’t win it, but they could certainly win one more than their seed will say. Standing in the middle of the pack, the Panthers could climb as high as 6th or drop as low as 11th, depending on tiebreaker scenarios. Facing Charlotte and ODU likely means a split for the week. FIU would need a miracle to not be in a play-in game if they happened to win Conference USA.
La Tech (16–12, 7–8 C-USA, RPI: 192, BPI: 139, SOS: 154) has now lost four of five. What a strange result for Louisiana Tech this year. They really looked amazing and have fallen apart since December. Depending on final tiebreakers, La Tech could rise to 6th, or could fall as low as 12th if all things fell the wrong way in the last week for them. With a win, they guarantee no worse than 9th place. La Tech has now played itself out of any kind of resume and would be very lucky to be a 15 seed.
FAU (11–15, 5–9 C-USA, RPI: 267, BPI: 239, SOS: 235) did its part in guaranteeing its spot by beating a decent North Texas Saturday. The Owls lost at home to a desperate Rice team that really put them in a tough spot. Regardless, FAU is now firmly in the field now. FAU is likely to tread water, heading to Norfolk to take on ODU Thursday and at cupcake Charlotte Saturday. In theory, FAU could climb as high as a 7 seed, but could also drop to the final spot in the tournament. FAU would be a 16 seed in all likelihood.
Southern Miss (13–15, 6–9 C-USA, RPI: 236, BPI: 256, SOS: 153) has one remaining game against La Tech Saturday. USM could finish as high as 8th and as low as a 12 spot. USM would likely be a 16 seed, but could squeeze a 15 in some scenarios.
Trying to Make the Field
UTEP (8–18, 3–11 C-USA, RPI: 291, BPI: 249, SOS: 194) has somehow decided to win three of four games and has now put itself in a power position to make the conference’s field of 12. With a win at Rice or North Texas, UTEP would wrap up a spot in the C-USA Tournament. However, if UTEP could win both of its last two games, it could potentially climb as high as the seventh seed on tiebreakers, believe it or not. UTEP would certainly be a play-in game if it happened to win C-USA.
Rice (5–22, 2–12 C-USA, RPI: 328, BPI: 317, SOS: 208) needs to win its last two games and hope UTEP also loses its last game against North Texas. this is a tall ask, but from Rice’s perspective, after a horrible year, at least they have a chance. Rice can only attain the 12 seed with help. Play-in game.
Out
Charlotte (5–20, 1–13 C-USA, RPI: 318, BPI: 325, SOS: 190) did not do what it needed to stay in the race, and with other developments, would have still possibly been mathematically eliminated anyway. Charlotte can only hope to salvage the end of its season by stopping its massive 14 game losing streak at this point.
Overall State of C-USA Men’s Basketball: Hand-Wringing and Opera Singing
I’ll be honest: I am completely excited to see how this week turns out. This isn’t just from a WKU perspective: Conference USA is set up to be riveting from top to bottom. 100 Miles of Hate should be incredible. Marshall could spoil MTSU’s party, or they could spoil their own party by losing their fourth place standing. Will ODU stumble again before the end of the season? How will UTSA handle being without Jhivvan Jackson? Who will be the 6th through 13th place teams? Can Rice win three of four and find its way into the field of 12?
The fat lady is going to sing for Charlotte and one other team. Other teams may see the writing on the wall by the end of the week. But hope will spring eternal in the Conference USA Tournament March 7–10 in Frisco. Honestly, buckle up C-USA. It’s going to be an incredible week! It’s about time for some March Madness.
Women’s Basketball
What a difference a week makes! My goodness. Last week, UAB and WKU were battling for first with UAB in control of its destiny. UAB loses to La Tech by ten at home. Now WKU is completely in the driver’s seat, facing two winnable (albeit) road games to clinch the number one seed.
The rest of the conference races are still alive. Marshall is mathematically eliminated, but every other team is in a battle for a significant seed bump. 3rd through 6th is still in a battle, separated by one total game in the standings. 7th to 11th is separated by 1/2 a game, and 12th and 13th will battle it out for the final seed.
Favorites
WKU (21–6, 12–2 C-USA, RPI: 41, SOS: 107) is now back in the driver’s seat with a week to play. Although WKU hits the road to Southern Miss and UTEP, WKU will be favored to take care of business and win its second consecutive regular season title. The Lady Toppers have been incredibly consistent all season, and with the emergence of Raneem Elgedawy and Dee Givens in addition to superstars Ivy Brown and Tashia Brown, WKU seems unstoppable at this point.
WKU is projected as an 11 seed by ESPN, and with such a weak conference, that seed line is most likely only going to go down if the Toppers stumble. There is not much room for improvement on that seed unless some WKU opponents make some noise in their conference tournaments. The Lady Toppers are considered a bubble team if they were to lose in the tournament, but WKU would likely finish just outside of the NCAA Tournament if they were to lose in the NCAA Tournament.
UAB (22–5, 11–3 C-USA, RPI: 83, SOS: 203) has suddenly lost two of three, so are the Blazers choking or just struggling against pretty good competition? It remains to be seen, but losing to an inferior team this week would be devastating to their confidence. As it stands, UAB would be looking at somewhere between a 12 and 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
3rd Through 6th
Rice (19–7, 9–5 C-USA, RPI: 102, SOS: 298) has really dropped the ball of late, losing three of four. This has now put Rice in a tough position, with two tough home games to end the year to determine whether they will earn 3rd place or finish as low as 6th. With a win against La Tech, Rice would confirm itself as no worse than the 4th seed, which would guarantee a bye in the C-USA Tournament.
Ultimately, Rice is still a pretty good team and would represent C-USA well in the NCAA Tournament. Rice would probably be viewed about the same as UAB. Depending on who makes the tournament from mid-major conferences, Rice could fall to a 15.
La Tech (18–10, 9–6 C-USA, RPI: 140, SOS: 186) has one remaining game, a battle royale against Rice for a conference tournament bye. With a win, the Lady Bulldogs would land a bye in the C-USA Tournament and likely the 3rd seed, presumably avoiding WKU. La Tech would probably come in around a 14 or 15 in an NCAA Tournament field. With such low numbers, maybe they could fall as low as a 16 in some scenarios.
Middle Tennessee (17–11, 9–6 C-USA, RPI: 105, SOS: 139) has one remaining game at home against Old Dominion Saturday. If Middle takes down ODU, they are likely to receive a bye in the C-USA Tournament. This would likely set up a juicy potential semifinal with rival WKU. Assuming Middle did well the rest of the season, they would probably fit in around a 12 to 14 largely due to brand recognition and a decent resume.
Charlotte (12–15, 8–6 C-USA, RPI: 153, SOS: 115) now takes on two teams they should beat at home after getting shellacked by WKU on the road. If they do win their final two, it certainly makes the battle for the 3rd through 6th spots interesting. Charlotte must win both games to contend for a bye. If they do, all four teams could finish at 10–6, leaving a big mess for tiebreakers to decide who deserves a bye in the tournament. Charlotte could slot in from a 14 to a 16 seed.
The Rest
Old Dominion (8–20, 6–8 C-USA, RPI: 278, SOS: 155) may taste reality this week, facing two of the conference’s best in Charlotte and Middle. ODU could slide anywhere from 7th to 12th. Despite a decent conference performance, ODU would almost certainly finish a 16 seed with a current RPI pushing 300.
North Texas (15–11, 6–8 C-USA, RPI: 223, SOS: 295) was playing well of late when they inexplicably lost at home to Marshall. Now UNT faces UAB and Rice to finish the season. Tough. North Texas would be a 16 in the NCAA Tournament if they were to make it. UNT could flirt with a 15 if they were to beat Rice and/or UAB this week.
Southern Miss (14–13, 6–8 C-USA, RPI: 206, SOS: 219) plays a challenging brand of basketball, but it sure seems as if USM doesn’t have the talent this year. USM plays WKU and FIU at home to finish the season. USM could finish anywhere from 7th to 12th in C-USA. They would now be lucky to be anything but a 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament, assuming they get it together enough to do anything in the C-USA Tourney.
FAU (12–13, 6–8 C-USA, RPI: 228, SOS: 243) suddenly awoke, defeating Southern Miss and FIU last week. FAU now plays Marshall and Charlotte. Likely to split, FAU should tread water in the middle of the pack. However, FAU could float from 7th to 12th place depending on results around the league this week. 16 seed.
UTSA (8–19, 6–9 C-USA, RPI: 269, SOS: 179) drank some magical potion or something, because one of the worst teams in the country beat two teams with winning records this week. Now UTSA plays UAB and is guaranteed a spot in the C-USA Tournament. They could even finish as high as 7th in the conference standings. What an amazing week for UTSA. Still a 16 seed.
Grappling for Scraps
UTEP (14–13, 5–9 C-USA, RPI: 198, SOS: 239) is officially desperate. They play FIU for a spot in the tournament. With WKU on the horizon in its final game, UTEP better do its part and beat FIU or they will probably find themselves out of the tournament altogether. UTEP could maybe squeak a 15 seed in the NCAA tournament if they got themselves together and played well enough to win C-USA. However, UTEP needs to worry about making the tournament at this point.
FIU (7–20, 4–10 C-USA, RPI: 310, SOS: 199) faces UTEP for a great chance at making the C-USA Tournament. UTEP faces WKU in its final game, so FIU could conceivably leapfrog the Miners by simply winning this one game.
Out
Marshall (9–19, 3–12 C-USA, RPI: 301, SOS: 246) did win a game this week, but is still mathematically eliminated from contention.
State of C-USA Women’s Basketball: WKU vs. the Field
WKU is now in supreme position to go ahead and take the number one seed. Both UAB and WKU hit the road for their final week, but WKU has the momentum and is really playing extremely well. WKU is yet to win a conference game by less than 10 points. With losses to the second and third seeds and no bad losses on the overall resume, WKU just doesn’t beat itself.
Since UAB and Rice beat WKU, they certainly must be considered contenders for the Conference USA title. In addition, Middle Tennessee, La Tech, and Charlotte are also playing well at the end of the season.
So much is to be decided with several interesting battles, but one thing is for sure: Regardless of the results this week, WKU is the favorite to win Conference USA.