Family Dinner Table: 100 Miles of Hate Preview
FB: 100 Miles of Hate is on the horizon. WKU looks the favorite, but MTSU has new hope in new HC Derek Mason.
Last week, Western Kentucky got back on track against EKU, blanking the former OVC rival Colonels 31-0 and evening up the overall record at 1-1. WKU now heads into its first taste of the new Conference USA slate (Kennesaw State added, FIU not on WKU’s 2024 schedule), as well as a newly revitalized MTSU team that is starting to be picked over WKU and JSU in some of the CUSA Power Rankings.
Apparently the Blue Raiders were just soo impressive against Ole Miss in their 52-3 stomping, along with a 32-25 nailbiter against an FCS team not even considered as one of the top 43 (according to the FCS rankings) of the other Division I football subdivision. But sure, let’s crown Middle (of all teams) the second favorite in Conference USA. Because 15 second Google search.
We digress…
Western Kentucky looks to start off CUSA play in strong fashion, while MTSU hopes to look the part of a real contender. MTSU has presumably improved, bringing in some high level offensive transfers and keeping key pieces (quarterback for example) that should make MTSU a much more effective offensive unit. Can Derek Mason, a defensive minded coach known for having really strong defensive units and anemic offenses, allow his offense to flourish and get his defensive guys to rise to his expectation level? That remains to be seen, but a huge barometer is the Hilltoppers, who presumably have one of the better rosters in all of the Group of Five.
The season is young, so we don’t know how good either team is yet. However, the season starts afresh for both now that CUSA play is here. Most likely, both could win the rest of their games and still not be the G5 qualifier to the College Football Playoff, so Conference USA play and making a bowl game is the goal. Surely both will come out looking to get started right in Conference USA in a big rivalry game against perhaps both schools’ biggest current rival.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
Before and after each game, Matt and David will put their own spins on their thoughts on the matchup. In a preview article, they’ll talk about what they see, whatever that may be, whether it’s about the food at the stadium, fan experience, roster depth, or big picture football thoughts. One will go and then the other. In a postgame article, they will react with whatever vitriol or euphoria they feel at the time.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
“I brought you into this world, and I’ll take you out!” -David McCay
100 Miles of Hate, A Brief Football History
From one old rival to another we go. I love that Western is doing this in football and basketball this year, playing old rivals. Some may disagree, but since we no longer play in the old days, most young fans do not know much if anything about Western Kentucky University. Many more don’t know about the other schools WKU plays. Even less know about the history between the schools or why the game brings some interest outside of the football game itself.
But MTSU has a special place in the bottom of my stomach. When I hear we are playing them, I get both excited and nauseated at the same time. It does not matter what sport: These matchups are full of drama, excitement, and a few pranks. With this rivalry, we never know what will happen, no matter how good or bad the teams are. Either team can win any given season. In 73 games played, Western leads this series 37-35-1. So if you want a true tossup (your cookies) rivalry, The 100 Miles of Hate is the one.
100 Miles of Hate started in football in 1914. There are some gaps in time for war, conference changes, and division transition. Otherwise this matchup would have seen 100 games, too. Western has won the last five meetings and eight of the last nine. The longest WKU win streak is seven between 1928 and 1934. MTSU’s longest streak is five two separate times (1955-1959 and 1981-1985). But if you look at the numbers, these games are almost always close, as in a touchdown or less difference, with few exceptions.
Statistical Leaders for MTSU
Nicholas Vattiato #11 is a 6’1” 205 pound junior quarterback for the Blue Raiders. Nick has completed 41 of his 68 passes to more than 10 receivers for 419 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He has been sacked three times and has a quarterback rating of 111. So far in two games, Vattiato is a game managing pocket passer. (He had a few hundred yards rushing two years ago, though.) WKU must not let him get going.
Middle Tennessee has three running backs with ten or more carries, Jaiden Credle #22, Frank Peasant #3, and Terri Wilkins #4. Credle leads the team 50 yards on 18 carries with one TD. With 49 yards on ten carries, Peasant leads the team with 4.9 yard per carry and two TDs. Wilkins is a third option with 11 carries for 37 yards. There is no need to allow any one of these running backs to have a big game. Rushing is something the Blue Raiders want to exploit. However, MTSU lost running backs Frank Peasant and Jekail Middlebrook to injuries at Ole Miss. Neither are listed on this week's depth chart vs. the Hilltoppers. WKU needs to defend the run in this game better than they have the last two weeks.
Holden Willis #83 (TE) leads the MTSU with eight receptions for 125 yards. Myles Butler #5 (WR) has seven receptions for 72 yards and one TD. There are several other players with four or five receptions, so Vattiato spreads the ball around. WKU must defend the pass well and not allow MTSU receivers extra yardage, especially on quarterback scramble plays.
Editor’s note: Keep in mind that these offensive numbers may not be that impressive with only two games in and a three point effort against #5 Ole Miss.
Zeke Rankin #7 is the MTSU Senior place kicker. He is 3/3 on extra points and 2/2 on field goals with a long of 33. The two punters that have played average under 40 yards per punt with a long of 49. With so few punts and kicks it is hard to tell their abilities, but I do not want this game to come down to a last second short field goal (or WKU hoping for a short punt to start a two minute drill to win the game).
Middle Tennessee have scored 35 points this season in two games. They have made 38 first downs with 25 through the air. They have given up two interceptions and one fumble. MTSU’s head coach Derek Mason is known for defense. His defense this year has intercepted one pass and forced one fumble, but no recoveries. Combined, they have given up 996 yards and 76 points against Tennessee Tech and Ole Miss. Not stellar numbers, but again, the season is young. May WKU hit that average on Saturday.
Statistical Leaders for WKU
TJ Finley #2 had a great bounce back game against EKU on Saturday. TJ was 27 of 38 passing for 351 yards and a TD, adding 13 yards gained on the ground. This needs to happen again this Saturday as MTSU has proven so far to be susceptible to the pass, giving up over 300 yards per game thus far this season.
Elijah Young #3 played well against EKU after a rough week one. Averaging 4.0 yards per carry, Elijah rushed for 52 yards on 13 carries and two TDs. LT Sanders (#7) added a TD and 28 yards. The Toppers offense ran for 116 yards on the day.
Kisean Johnson #0 led WKU receiving with six catches for an explosive 119 yards. Dalvin Smith #17 came alive in the fourth quarter with four receptions for 34 yards and scored the lone receiving TD on a beautiful pass from a scrambling TJ Finley. Seven other receivers caught passes for the remaining 198 yards. The receiving corps looked much improved in week two.
The red zone performance was better this week. WKU scored five of the seven times in the scoring area, four TDs and one field goal. They should have scored on all seven, but coaches decided to not kick twice and those attempts on fourth down both failed. Take all the points you can get against MTSU in whatever way they come.
Western must play sound physical defense on Saturday against an improving MTSU offense. WKU was hard hitting and had little mercy on the EKU offense, keeping EKU from scoring (EKU made it to within a yard on their opening drive in the second half). Saturday’s game must have the same effort and physicality against bigger and better athletes. Another shut out would be nice, but not expected. Containment is the key for the rest of the season. Limiting the big plays and making clean tackles will equip WKU well.
What Must WKU do to Win?
As I mentioned, WKU must play good sound physical defense and get some turnovers.
The offense must find ways to move the ball, score 30+, and not give away the ball, especially if there is wind and rain (Tropical Depression Francine is currently in Mississippi heading north).
WKU must win at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Unless I miss my guess, special teams will play a big role in this game.
Coaches need to open up the playbook and find ways to get receivers open.
Coaches need to be able to adjust things quickly during the game. With the new technology that is available for coaches and players in the booth and sideline, there are no excuses about not fixing problems during the game.
Coaches need to be more conservative in the red zone if the wind is not a huge factor. Let the kicker get you points, instead of turning the ball over.
David Prediction
Vegas thinks this one is essentially a tossup (-7.5 for WKU with over under at 54.5). Most experts are now saying that MTSU will cover and take the under. I hope Western gets this done 34-24. And just to make Matt mad, the first one to 30 will win this game, especially true as the weather changes to wind and rain. Yards, through the air especially, may be hard to come by if it gets nasty at Middle. Oh, wait a minute, it is Murfreesboro, so it’s always nasty.
“You forced me into this world; I’ll force you out!” -Matt McCay
Dad is right about the “first thing to 30” thing. Like he’ll never really commit to a score and be like, “Whoever wins does XYZ,” or “First to 30 wins,” or “We’re gonna have to play well to win.” Commit, dude!
Memories at Middle
While MTSU may be a rival to some, the MUTS, as we so unaffectionately call them, are absolutely my number one most hated school that WKU has ever played.
From their adult section sitting right behind our bench and asking our trainer girls if they had slept with the players, to groups of 12-year-olds flipping us off, to getting stuff thrown at us at basketball games, personal experience tells me to absolutely despise the Blue Raiders. One thing as you mature is you learn that every fan base and every corner of the country has its share of good and bad people, and ultimately, we shouldn’t disrespect the people. Honestly it’s a lesson you learn as you grow and mature. I used to feel hatred to teams in high school and brought that to our opponents in college. I hope we can all learn that difference, but nonetheless, the institution that is MTSU is nauseating, as Dad so eloquently said above.
I would propose that MTSU is more like the bottom of my colon, but we can roll with the stomach to be less graphic, I guess.
Also, to the Karens, “100 Miles of Hate” might be an offensive term, but so is calling players “trash”. You have no problem doing that the moment you don’t get what you want. Why do we have to be so sensitive?!? It’s an incredible name for a rivalry. Are we supposed to rename it because it’s too aggressive? Welcome to football. Welcome to sports. It’s called passion. We say passionate things when we’re excited. Sometimes we hurt other people’s feelings. It helps you grow. Let’s grow together and don’t be soft as a baby’s bottom. NAY (like Lightning the friendly unicorn donkey), dare I say soft as MTSU.
MTSU Should Get Better Under Derek Mason
Even if it’s just affecting feelings and fan and locker room belief, Derek Mason is saying and doing the right things. He has brought in some good pieces offensively, kept a good quarterback, and is a very solid defensive mind. Wherever he goes, his defenses end up good. Perhaps his offenses have been questionable, but honestly at Vanderbilt, it’s extremely hard to win, and he may have not been a great cultural fit there.
Mason is talking about Middle as if it should be better and that their fan base, administration, and overall athletic department (specifically the football team) should demand and expect more of themselves. That’s exactly how a coach should talk. It’s inspiring, and I hate it.
That alone should help inspire confidence and get people ready to do things for him (fans, staff, and players), even if it doesn’t tangibly move the needle.
Mason is also a classic “big fish in a little pond”. He has Power Five (Four) experience as a head coach. How many CUSA coaches have that kind of resume? How many Group of Five position coaches have Power Four experience at their current roles? Very few. Even if Derek Mason is not destined for a blue chip job, much like Rich Rodriguez at Jacksonville State, he brings a higher level of expectation and a “been there done that” quotient to the formula.
WKU Head Coach Tyson Helton, as good of a job he has done, has hardly been at a power school, although his alma mater (Houston) is now part of a power conference. There’s something to be said for established coaches having to restart their careers. They usually have at least an initial amount of success. Derek Mason is an incredible hire by MTSU, even if he doesn’t pan out.
MTSU may not be ready this early in the season to click in as a CUSA contender, but by the end of the year, they may be playing some of the best football in the conference.
It’s Time for WKU to Lock In
We saw the defense at a pretty high level against EKU, but the effort against the run left something to be desired (190 yard rushing). They did completely shut down the passing game (76 yards), however. Then again, EKU left plenty of passing yardage out on the field in the first half with inaccurate passing.
Offensively, WKU has still not remotely shown its best. Even if the overall offensive quality is about as good as it can be (which I don’t believe at all), WKU’s red zone offense has been a major topic of conversation since the Alabama game. Thus far, WKU is only converting on 32 percent of its third downs, 2-of-5 on fourth down, and is only 5-of-9 in the red zone.
That’s plenty of potential just in executing in crucial moments, and those issues were not just because the Tops played Alabama and all numbers are skewed. No, actually. Against EKU, WKU was 4-of-15 on third down. Western was actually better on third down against Alabama, believe it or not.
Special teams wise, the Tops are only 1-of-2 from field goal, do not have any significant returns, and either have not trusted the kicker or have neglected to use the kicker on multiple occasions. No matter how the cake is sliced, WKU fans still have a nice platter of pieces to feel pretty sweet about (assuming the Tops meet their potential in 2024-25). Much like a nice piece of cake, though, if it sits and doesn’t get used, it runs stale. It’s time for WKU have the cake and eat it, too.
Matt’s Keys to Victory
TJ Finley Needs to be Tangibly Better than Nicholas Vattiato
Again, I hate to emphasize the quarterback position, because it’s such a “fan” go to. Of course the QB position is important! But in this case, TJ Finley has one of the best arms in the country in terms of top end ability. He can zip the ball into any window. Now, he may not throw it accurately and he may not make the best decisions, but if he’s on and he’s accurate and his receivers are ready to catch his bullets, good luck to whatever defense tries to stop him.
MTSU starting QB Nicholas Vattiato is a very good player that has a lot of really good qualities. With nearly 5,000 career passing yards, 220 yards per game passing, and a 66 percent career completion percentage, Vattiato is a legitimate Conference USA quarterback. But if he and TJ Finley are about even in terms of production and effectiveness, watch out for MTSU to pull the slight upset. Finley should be the better QB.
Click the Offense Into Place
Expanding on the offense, at times, WKU’s offense under Tyson Helton has been so good that if WKU just scores, it doesn’t even matter what the defense does. The offense has not shown us that, but if the WKU offense of the fourth quarter against EKU shows up, WKU will win Conference USA. However, if the WKU offense that showed up against Alabama shows up, this one could be rough. MTSU has not shown any kind of impressive offense, either against Tennessee Tech (less offensive yards than Tech) or against Ole Miss (52-3 loss with 1.1 yards per rush). If WKU can hang 30, you have to feel pretty good. Dropping in 40 or more almost certainly seals the deal for the Tops.
Sack! Sack! Sack! Sack the Quarterback!
The oldest cheerleader cheer in the book (that so often in high school got chosen while the offense was on the field) really applies for the Tops. WKU has gotten good pressure and good disruption in the first two weeks of the season. However, they have only gotten home on two sacks in two games. That pace cannot continue, or the defense will not be able to be elite over the course of the season with so few big plays. Sacks are drive busters as long as the sack goes for three or more yards loss. Obviously a one yard sack is not as big of a deal as a ten yard loss. But in general, sacking the QB is a massive play and a big momentum killer for an offense. This unit has potential for a monster year up front, but they need to start cashing in on all of that pressure.
Win the Red Zone
Something has to give here. Both teams have been bad in the red zone on both sides of the ball. Although WKU has two stops in the red zone, they have given up 28 points on six red zone trips. MTSU has given up nearly all of their points defensively inside the red zone. Offensively, MTSU only has 27 red zone points, while WKU has 31. Through two games, that should be significantly higher for both, especially given the fact that both teams haven’t had many explosive plays to combat the red zone issue.
Somebody is going to come out ahead in the red zone, and it could decide the game. I think if WKU is even or behind in the red zone game, this could be a rough night. If the Tops can demolish MTSU in the red zone, you have to feel good about your chances.
Take the Points if They’re There
This is partially a point about coaching decisions, and partially a point about the Tops just needing to do a better job in big moments. Tyson Helton’s decisions have cost WKU at least a few points, if not a couple of touchdowns’ worth of questionable decisions. They have not affected the outcome of the game and have not brought him significant heat, but watch out for missing points from going for it on fourth down, going for a premature two point conversion, or odd play calling on third and fourth down.
In addition, watch for big moments. Does WKU get to the one yard line, get a holding penalty and a personal foul and miss a long field goal instead of score a touchdown? Does WKU struggle on third and short? Conversely, does WKU pull off a few victories against the likely outcome? Can the Tops overcome a 3rd-and-12 and go down and score? This stands to be a close one, so don’t get too cocky and make bad football plays and decisions. Play the correct percentage play, and let’s see how reasonable thinking puts WKU in the best position to win.
Matt Prediction
Western is a decent favorite, and the ESPN Football Power Index is certainly skewed by WKU’s 63-0 massacring at the hands of Alabama. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the fact that WKU is only a 51 percent favorite according to that metric. Even on the road, Western should be the favorite to win. However, this may be the most vulnerable WKU has been in quite some time against MTSU.
MTSU hasn’t played its best, has a quarterback that can play that is hungry coming off of injury, and has a very high ceiling considering a completely new offensive and defensive scheme. If MTSU can play well, it’s going to force WKU to match that quality, and WKU still has a lot of questions, especially offensively. Can TJ Finley be a stable quarterback that produces on an elite level consistently? So far he’s got one passing touchdown and two interceptions in two games. The WKU passing attack is only averaging 227 yards per game. WKU’s running game is suspect as well, although some nice things happened against EKU late.
I think the rub comes in the running game. MTSU has had trouble stopping the run, and they have had serious trouble running the ball in either of their games. WKU’s front six/seven is much improved, and they could feast on an already susceptible MTSU ground game. There’s your difference, as long as trends continue as they have.
I like WKU’s overall talent level, and I like their continuity. Eight games into the season, I don’t know if I would like WKU’s chances as much. MTSU is almost certainly going to take a few more games to get their offense figured out. When they do, watch out.
I like what Derek Mason is doing, but I like the stability of the Tyson Helton regime at WKU. The Tops may have trouble, but I still see WKU winning a vast majority of the ways this game could possibly go.
I think WKU should win this one, and I think the Tops fix a lot of the things they should fix and beat MTSU going away. I could be delusional, but I like WKU’s potential if the offense clicks and the defense is pretty good. I don’t think Middle hangs around if Western plays pretty well.
Give me Western Kentucky 38-Middle Tennessee 21.
Agree to Agree
Just remember, when you’re dealing with family, ya love em even if they drive you crazy. In this case, Matt and David seem to be on the same page. Their time will come for sure.
The McCay’s like WKU to handle MTSU. David thinks it will be closer, and Matt hopes it won’t be.
MTSU poses a legitimate threat to WKU’s streak of winning five in a row and eight of the last nine meetings. An MTSU win would certainly establish that the Derek Mason era is going to be a serious one for the Blue Raiders.
Vegas likes WKU to win a game with a score in the low 30s. We’ll see how it all shakes out, but watch out for this game to be an absolute classic. Every few years, both teams play really well and put on a show. We’re due for a good one.
Get ready to pile on the hate! Tops and Blue Raiders. Saturday at MTSU at 6 PM on ESPN+. Be there. And get ready to BEAT MIDDLE!
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