Family Dinner Table: Setting the Table for Toledo
FB: Toledo (3-0) has been impressive thus far this season. A game WKU fans probably circled as a possible win now looks like a borderline ranked opponent. Can WKU muster enough at Smith Stadium?
Western Kentucky enters one of the most dead even “barn burner” type of matchups at The Houch in recent memory. Certainly in the non-conference slate, when is the last time WKU was expected to be dead even with its opponent? When was the last time the Tops played a non-power school and the game was expected to be within a field goal?
WKU was actually an underdog (+7.5) vs. BGSU 2014, but both teams were not expected to be conference championship contenders. Not a lot of G5 vs. G5 non-conference home games have been considered this close before kickoff. WKU vs. Troy in 2022 (WKU -5.5) was the last spread within a touchdown. Ball State in 2017 had WKU as a five point favorite. If you want to count UK in 2013 as a home game for WKU, that line 4.5.
The WKU vs. Toledo line (WKU +2.5) is the closest pregame line for a non-conference game in the history of LT Smith Stadium.
This feels like two legitimate Group of Five teams that could possibly (if everything went perfectly) represent the Group of Five in the new 12 team playoff. WKU needs some serious help on that last part about the CFP, but the point is this is a good matchup, and Northern Illinois and WKU could be the biggest threats to Toledo’s plans to go undefeated this season.
David and Matt will break it down more, but on paper, this is a historically good non-conference matchup and I think everyone hopes for a really good back-and-forth battle.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
Before and after each game, Matt and David will put their own spins on their thoughts on the matchup. In a preview article, they’ll talk about what they see, whatever that may be, whether it’s about the food at the stadium, fan experience, roster depth, or big picture football thoughts. One will go and then the other. In a postgame article, they will react with whatever vitriol or euphoria they feel at the time.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
“I brought you into this world, and I’ll take you out!” -David McCay
WKU comes off a fantastic game at MTSU where the offense moved the ball up and down the field almost at will. Western rushed for 150 yards and passed for over 450 while scoring seven TDs. Meanwhile, WKU’s defense held MTSU to 21 points, but gave up over 500 yards. If MTSU gets their defense settled, no one will want to face them. Hopefully, there will not be a 100 Miles of Hate Part Two until the Men’s and Women’s basketball seasons start if you catch my drift.
Toledo Information and Players to Watch
The Toledo Rockets come into this game undefeated with a win at an SEC school. With three wins including a Power Four win, they are in the initial discussions for making the 12 team playoff. Toledo comes in averaging 42.7 points per game and only giving up 16.7 points per game. Their offense has amassed 1158 yards, 16 TDs, three FGs, only one turnover (fumble), and given up two sacks in three games. The defense of Toledo is equally impressive, giving up only 328 yards per game, forcing six turnovers, and getting 11 sacks.
David’s Prediction
Toledo’s opponents have two wins combined (2-7) and are not expected to improve. WKU’s first three opponents have five combined wins and are projected to finish with better records than Toledo’s first three opponents. Does that mean much yet? No. But at least that is something to look at, as once again the statistics for both teams look even. Western has more yardage, but less scoring. Toledo has more scoring and sound defensive numbers, but against presumably inferior teams. To me, the game looks to be a real “Tums tosser”. We’re talking winning or losing on the last drive close.
Betting opened on Monday with WKU favored by .5, so Vegas initially thought it would be a tossup. That has moved to Toledo by 2.5 and the over/under has moved up to 62.5 points.
I do think Western will get this done and also I think this will be a high scoring barn burner. Toledo 41 - WKU 45
“You forced me into this world; I’ll force you out!” -Matt McCay
WKU comes off of an incredible offensive performance against arch rival MTSU, trouncing the Blue Raiders by four touchdowns. Not to be outdone and far more impressive, Toledo demolished Mississippi State 41-17 on the road, leading by as much as 28 themselves.
Interestingly, Toledo has the single most impressive win by far, but WKU has two solid performances for two different reasons. Against EKU, WKU blanked the Colonels 31-0 and held EKU’s passing game to 76 yards. Against MTSU, WKU conceivably could have scored 60 points. Meanwhile, Toledo’s other two wins were pretty pedestrian, beating the very average FCS Duquesne 49-10 and UMASS (who is terrible) 38-23. What clearly stands out is Toledo is just really solid. They’re not magnificently prolific in terms of offensive yardage (well less than 400 total yards per game), but they are yet to score less than 38 points in any of their three games. Defensively, they’re forcing two turnovers per game and have only turned it over a total of one time offensively.
This is a Really Difficult Game to Predict
As I write, I’m still processing how I really think this game might go. There are so many variables to this matchup. As we said above, this is the closest non-conference spread in the modern history of Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
A quick list of my conflicting thoughts:
Caden Veltkamp’s first collegiate start: Obviously Veltkamp has been impressive, but he’s never known he was going to be the guy all week leading up to the game. How does he handle it? He hasn’t started a game since high school in December of 2021.
WKU’s defense is inconsistent: There’s 63 points against Alabama, eight TFL against EKU and a shutout, three sacks against MTSU, more than 500 total yards in two of three games, and hold opponents under 100 yards for both passing (EKU) and rushing (MTSU) statistics.
Toledo is receiving votes in the polls, so they’re presumed to be a well-respected football team nationally.
Statistically, Toledo is not that impressive offensively, but they score at least 38 points every time they strap up. Conversely, WKU’s defense has been good in the red zone. Can WKU give Toledo trouble and keep them out of the end zone? Could that be the difference maker?
Caden Veltkamp helped WKU explode for over 600 yards of offense last week, including the Tops adding a very respectable/Air Raid level good 150 yards on the ground. Toledo’s defense seems to be really good, and they only average giving up a respectable 351 yards and 16.7 points per game.
WKU’s offensive line seems to be as good as could possibly have been expected, and Toledo’s front has come up with 11 sacks in three games.
Despite the excellent results, Toledo is still giving up 246 yards through the air (103rd NCAA). We all know WKU’s passing offense is elite, currently sitting at 18th in the nation. Could this be the deciding factor?
Toledo’s punting has thus far been terrible (39.3 avg), and the Rockets’ field goal kicking has been average, missing a makeable mid-range field goal and a much longer attempt against Duquesne in the opener. WKU’s special teams unit seems to be better in these areas thus far. If it’s close, watch the special teams battle.
Toledo seems to have the advantage thus far defensively. WKU’s defense has not forced significant turnovers, held teams’ yardage down (besides against FCS EKU), or kept teams from scoring some points (with the exception of EKU). Western’s defense has been very good in the red zone, allowing only nine trips and stopping nearly half of those drives (4) from scoring any points.
Toledo’s defense keeps teams off of the scoreboard (16.7 ppg), forces turnovers (6), and keeps the overall yardage down (351 ypg) and the rushing yardage (104.7 ypg, 37th NCAA) down.
To highlight the final point in the bullet point above, Toledo seems to be able to stop the run, seems to be bigger overall in the trenches especially. We think WKU is probably more athletic. It’s a classic north vs. south type of matchup. Who wins? I have no idea…
Good on Good
In football-ese, we generally call a lot of the matchups in this game “Good on Good”, meaning a lot of matchups pit really good players from both sides against each other.
To name a few of these matchups:
WKU O-Line vs. Toledo D-Line
WKU red zone defense vs. Toledo scoring offense
WKU scoring offense vs. Toledo scoring defense
Toledo’s kick and punt returners vs WKU’s specialists
Toledo’s DBs (top three leading tacklers) vs WKU’s WR’s
WKU front six vs. Toledo RBs
Toledo WRs Junior Vandeross III (75 ypg) and Jerjuan Newton (61 ypg) vs. WKU CBs Anthony Johnson, Jr., Nazir Ward, and nickel/safety Upton Stout
Who’s Got the Edge?
QB: Even (Veltkamp unproven, Tucker Gleason 2nd Team All-Mac in 2023)
WR: WKU slightly
RB: Toledo slightly
TE: Toledo
OL: Even
DL: Toledo slightly
LB: Even
DB: Toledo slightly
Special Teams Overall: Even
Kicking: WKU slightly
Punting: WKU
Kickoff: Even
Kick Return: Toledo
Punt Return: Toledo
Keys to Victory
“Win the Crowd and You’ll Win Your Freedom!”
I think a huge factor could be whether the WKU crowd shows up and whether they are active or just sit on their hands and observe. Hopefully, people will grasp the significance that this game means for Western Kentucky football, its positioning nationally, recognition as a legitimate G5 program, overall momentum, you name it. Hopefully the players give the fans something exciting to cheer about, and hopefully the fans bring energy to the home environment and make life difficult for Toledo. In a nip-and-tuck game, sometimes momentum and emotion can make enough of a difference to swing the outcome.
“I Have Long Feared that My Sins Would Return to Visit Me”
This game could possibly come down to a couple of big moments. It could come down to a single moment. It could be separated because of a pick-6 or a big stop on fourth-and-goal. In a game that should be a total coin flip, sometimes the way you win in these situations is do a good job and let the other team screw it up for themselves. Don’t look back at this game and regret something really stupid, whether it’s a careless fumble, a horrible QB decision, a busted play, a missed tackle, a desperation heave under pressure, or whatever else it might be. Play great football and let’s see where this thing falls.
“Show Me the Money!”
Defensively, we always called third down “money down” because getting a stop pays off. Also, you’re almost always in a nickel or dime package, but anyway…the Tops need to show up big on third and fourth down. Toledo has done a really good job on both sides of the ball on these downs. WKU has been good offensively, but the defense has allowed opposing offenses to convert a combined 20-of-43 times on third and fourth down. For the overall quality of this season, that number cannot continue, but if Toledo can convert over half of its third and fourth downs, you can probably write it down that the Rockets win. If WKU can get some stops, that forces Toledo be really efficient on their other downs, and they are not so much an explosive offense. They are more methodical. If you force the Rockets into uncomfortable situations on first and second down, you will probably be more successful on the later downs.
“Gatoradeeeeeee. Water sucks! It really really sucks!”
Legendary Mud Dog defensive lineman Bobby Boucher was so angry, and he was a sack master. WKU’s defensive front has been surprisingly decent this year. I know they had Hosea Wheeler on a watch list, and Terrion Thompson is also a good player that has already been producing some numbers. But the defensive front still has not been prolific and producing consistently. They’ve caused disruption, but haven’t consistently hit the QB, sacked him, forced fumbles, and forced QBs into horrible throws, and that’s part of why the defensive turnover numbers haven’t been there thus far. WKU needs a defensive front (and an offensive front as well) that is going to play angry and be productive. They need to be under control (Terrion Thompson was getting chippy against EKU for example), but they need to blow up the backfield against Toledo.
If WKU’s defensive line is as good as Toledo’s or better, that’s probably good enough to win the game, in my opinion.
“I know you (Rockets) don’t think this is over with. Let’s Kick it Old School”
I really, really think this game could come down to something minute. There are some interesting dynamics in the kicking game. Toledo’s punting has been suspect thus far. They have used two different punters, and they combine to average under 40 yards per punt. Both teams also combine on the season for 4-of-7 from field goal.
In addition, I think my biggest special teams concern from a WKU perspective is Toledo’s return game. In two games, both the punt return average (20.14) and the kick return average (38.5) are 15 yards above average. Given a 98 yard return for touchdown, one would think that’s where the yards came from. On returned kicks, Toledo has returned it for no less than 27 yards. On punts, even taking away a 41 yard punt return as well as a 22 yard punt return, Toledo’s two guys that have registered a return still would average over ten yards per return without two field flipping returns. Given the conservative nature most teams take to kick and punt returns during modern college football, it’s really rare to have a team that returns it at all, but to have a team that does really well with it is a huge weapon.
WKU must find a way to minimize Toledo’s advantage in this area. WKU should in theory have the superior athletes on special teams, but Toledo obviously has a good formula on both special teams return units.
Matt’s Prediction
I am so back-and-forth on this subject. For the purposes of consistency in our other article as well as being different than our other writers, along with genuinely think Toledo might just be a little better than WKU, I’m picking the Rockets.
That being said, I honestly have debated the entire writing up these articles whether I should just change how I feel, because I definitely see some potential issues if WKU’s defense can be effective. Toledo’s offense has not been exceptional yet, other than capitalizing on opportunities. Other than that, they’re not incredibly explosive, they’re not moving the ball up and the down the field, and they’re not a juggernaut.
So if WKU can score a bunch of points and force Toledo into a track meet, I think that’s actually really good for WKU. I think if it’s lower scoring, that’s trouble for WKU. Toledo is the more methodical team. Toledo is built for a defensive struggle. WKU is built to score a bunch of points and force turnovers on defense, and thus far, they haven’t been able to do that.
I think WKU is going to blossom once it’s time for Conference USA play, but I sincerely don’t think the Tops have the upper hand this early in the season. Toledo has a 2nd Team All-Mac quarterback, and he has not really shown his full potential yet, either. He’s got more room to get better, and he may well take the next step this week.
This is an absolutely coin flip for me, and I’ve gone back and forth. But I’ll stick to my original prediction that I put into our predictions article early this week.
Give me Toledo 31-Western Kentucky 29. Ugh
Conclusion
Father and son finally disagree. David thinks WKU will run up the score, and Toledo will hang but not be able to produce enough offense. Matt thinks this may be a little bit lower scoring game.
Regardless, the consensus is this game could be really close, and it’s just a battle of wills. If WKU wins, this is one of the biggest wins in the Tyson Helton era. WKU has not had very many marquee wins besides in bowl games in recent memory, so this would be a heck of a feather in the cap for Tyson Helton.
It would solidify that WKU is a pretty good team and put WKU at 3-1 for the first time since 2022. The last time WKU started 3-1 before 2022 was in the magical 2015 season when WKU won its first of two Conference USA Championships in a row.
3-1 starts the conversation towards what this team can really do. Boston College next week will all of a sudden seem more approachable. WKU would probably start being considered for the top 25 at some point soon. Conference USA would seem all the more winnable.
2-2 puts WKU starting down the barrel of a losing record heading into conference play. It’s not a disaster, but it dampens expectations and it probably furthers the narrative that Tyson Helton is more average than above average. Fair or not, this game could be really deflating to the fan base if WKU loses.
Perhaps that’s a bit dramatic and there won’t be an overreaction, but have you met the WKU fan base? Have you ever observed Twitter and Facebook when things don’t go the right way?
This is a big one, although at the end of they day, it probably actually ends up meaning nothing!
But it’s still fascinating, and it should be an absolute gem of a football game.
Topper fans, it’s time to get fired up and get ready to blast the Rockets.
PACK. THE. HOUCH.
It’s football time on The Hill, and the Tops have finally shown us they might be able to play some good ball this season. Make sure you start your new subscription with The Towel Rack and follow all of our articles!
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