Family Dinner Table: Toppers headed to Texas to play Sam Houston State in What Could be a Thriller
FB: Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State both sit at 2-0 in CUSA. Winner moves a game ahead of the other in the standings. Loser will fall behind and need help to make the championship.
Western Kentucky heads to Sam Houston ready for a war.
If Conference USA said it could plan its national spotlight games any better, they would be selling you a bill of goods. Few would have predicted both Sam Houston and WKU would go into this matchup undefeated in conference play with a winning record. However, they do, and it sets up for good TV.
Two contrasting styles of play, WKU airs it out and throws the ball all over the yard with a young, excited quarterback that has some ability to run as he needs to. Sam Houston runs an RPO type of offense where the QB is the star of the show, leading the team in passing and rushing.
Both defenses can stop the run and the pass, both defenses keep opponents under 400 yards per game, and both do well in the red zone. Both can force turnovers and pressure the quarterback.
Despite contrasting styles, the two football teams ultimately are well-rounded and creative.
Let’s see what the McCay’s think about this one, but gear up for what could be an instant classic.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account. Every once in a while, those bricks clank against the backboard and find their way into the bucket. Most often, it probably looks like you in your backyard shooting it off of the gutters of your house, Jackie Moon.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
Before and after each game, Matt and David will put their own spins on their thoughts on the matchup. In a preview article, they’ll talk about what they see, whatever that may be, whether it’s about the food at the stadium, fan experience, roster depth, or big picture football thoughts. One will go and then the other. In a postgame article, they will react with whatever vitriol or euphoria they feel at the time.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
Papa McCay
David’s Thoughts on Sam Houston State
Looking at film and statistics, I believe Sam Houston, WKU, Jacksonville State, and Liberty are the top four teams now and probably will be at the end of the season. The four will play each other this year, so Conference USA play is about to get very interesting. This week WKU’s (4-2 overall, 2-0 CUSA) passing offense plays Sam Houston’s (5-1 overall, 2-0 CUSA) rushing offense. The Bearkats will run twice as much as they pass. This year so far they have 286 rush attempts for 1373 yards and 150 pass attempts for 1034 yards.
Sam Houston averages 31.8 points per game and opponents average 23.8 points per contest. SHSU has scored 23 TDs and kicked eight field goals this season. Their punter averages 38.9 yards per punt. Sam Houston defense gives up 338 yards per game and has gotten ten sacks and 12 turnovers this season. The offense has thrown five interceptions and lost three fumbles, giving a turnover margin of +4.
Hunter Watson #10 6’3” 210 lb starting quarterback is 78 of 132 (59.1%) for 859 yards, seven TDs, five INTs, and has been sacked 14 times this season. Hunter also leads the rushing stats with 84 rushes for 370 yards and another 4 TDs. WKU must spy this guy because the offense goes through him.
Jay Ducker #9 and DJ McKinney #21 are the leading running backs. Jay has 66 rushes for 348 yards and five TDs. DJ has 57 rushes for 348 yards and two TDs.
SHSU has four receivers with 12 or more catches. Qua’ Vez Humphreys #7 is the most explosive with 12 catches for 281 yards and 4 TDs. Ife Adeyi #2, Simeon Evans #3, and Noah Smith #6 are the other three receiving leaders.
Caleb Weaver #3 a defensive back is the leader with 38 tackles and three INTs.
Christian Pavon #49 is the place kicker who is 23/23 on extra points and 8/10 on field goals.
Sam Houston is a very good team who values points, plays hard, and is physical.
Thoughts About WKU
WKU now averages 28.2 points, 120 yards rushing and 278.8 yards passing per game. Western’s defense gives up 23.8 points per game, 161.7 rushing yards and 224 passing yards per game. These numbers continue to improve as the season progresses.
TJ Finley was in a boot on Thursday, so Caden Veltcamp #10 is expected to start again this game. Caden is now 94/135 (69.6%) for 1147 yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, and has been sacked eight times. Veltcamp has 44 rushes for 71 yards and four TDs.
Elijah Young #3 is the feature back with 79 rushes for 278 yards and two TDs.
Kisean Johnson #0 and Easton Messer #8 are the leading receivers. Kisean has 34 catches for 474 yards and four TDs. Easton has 26 catches for 342 yards and two TDs. 13 others have caught balls this season.
Lucas Carniero #17 has made all 21 of his extra points and 7-of-8 field goals with a long now of 54 (tied for 2nd highest in WKU history).
Cole Maynard #18 averages 47.1 yards per punt which is ninth in NCAA football this season.
Western’s defense now has 12 sacks, 5 INTs, and 4 forced fumbles.
Now, its on to Huntsville, Texas on Wednesday against the Sam Houston State University Bearkats. This game initially looks like a coin toss game opens with WKU as 2.5 point underdogs. This game looks close on paper and Vegas thinks so too. I believe Western wins a close one 31-28.
GO TOPS!!!
Young Buck McCay
UTEP was basically just a stepping stone. WKU did about what we hoped for, but they left plenty of tangible things to work on. Frankly, that’s perfect from a football team management position. If you can win by 27 against a conference opponent and feel like you need to get to work, that’s a sign of good things.
But WKU must immediately stop with the obvious mistakes. When Average Joe points at the play and says “not good”, you have room for easy improvement. Kick returns for touchdowns, 76 yard pass plays, and interceptions in the red zone cannot happen against Sam Houston, or WKU will probably lose. Certainly all of them cannot happen in a close game.
Previewing SHSU
For those that think Sam Houston is a pushover, think again. They are a nationally legitimate football team that could upset the likes of a Boston College or Toledo.
On paper, these teams are different but equal. Sam Houston probably plays more consistent defense on both sides of the ball, but WKU’s defense has massively improved from 63-0 against Alabama.
WKU’s offense airs it out and never wins time of possession, and SHSU runs the ball and has the ball six more minutes per game than its opponent, only passing when they have to.
Perhaps a separation point could be special teams. WKU has generally very good special teams, although the kick return for touchdown casts down on kickoff coverage. Both field goal kickers are accurate with 50+ yard range. In the punting and kickoff game, though, WKU has a significant advantage. SHSU averages 38+ per punt, and WKU averages 47+. Imagine nine full yards per punt. Say there are 11 punts. That’s about a century’s worth of free yards for WKU.
On kickoff, Sam Houston kicks it out of bounds often (once per game) and only has eight touchbacks, allowing 22 yards per return. If I’m WKU, I’m returning most kicks and I’m challenging Sam Houston’s specialists to be great.
TJ Finley in a Boot
Dad said it, and I’ll say it in case people are wondering. WKU Starting QB TJ Finley looks way more able to put weight on his injured foot, but given that he’s still tangibly in a boot up above his calf below the knee, he is surely still several weeks away from even being able to play.
Is Michael Mathison Back?
WKU’s Michael Mathison was out all last season and was even injured with nagging injuries the first couple of weeks of the year. He’s now healthy, and he had three touchdowns against UTEP. He still hasn’t produced a ton of yardage, but three touchdowns (two receiving, one rushing) in one game show his versatility and his top end ability to be a difference maker.
We would like to say Mathison is fully ready to be the fourth really good wide receiver on WKU’s roster. That remains to be seen, but all signs points to significant improvement and a return to being the explosive player that helped Malachi Corley and Austin Reed become Hilltopper legends. Keep an eye on Mathison in the back half of the season. He could add a dimension to WKU’s offense that hasn’t been seen since he did himself in 2022.
Keys to Victory
Win the Battle of Wills
One of the biggest differences between WKU and SHSU is how they move the ball. Sam Houston burns clock and only passes when they have to. That style typically only works when you take a lead. If you’re playing from behind, conventional wisdom says you can’t run the ball 65 percent of the time when you’re down more than a score. WKU like to run the Air Raid offense, passing the ball short, medium, and long. Pass to set up the run. This style also has its weaknesses. Many Air Raid teams can have wild swings in momentum when the opponent figures out how to slow down the pass or stifles the run. If you can’t run, you can’t run out the clock on your opponent.
Who wins this war within the war? Who has to break from their preferred style of play in order to win this one? Somebody is going to, and then it comes down to how effective that decision was to change things up.
Decisively Win Special Teams
This is a risk emphasizing this so much, because I’ve done this before and Special Teams was absolutely no factor. However, even if that happens, it’s still a factor that favors one team over the other! I think less special teams would favor Sam Houston, as they are the weaker unit. WKU has the better special teams players for the most part. There’s no obvious advantage for Sam Houston at any of the specialist spots. WKU holds a nine yard advantage in punting, and has zero kicks out of bounds in six games. Sam Houston averages kicking it out of bounds once per game and averages three less yards per kickoff than WKU. These yards add up, especially if both teams keep each other at bay for less than 700 yards from scrimmage combined. Watch for WKU to dominate special teams, and if they don’t, it could seriously hinder WKU in a very tight battle.
Bear Down
WKU’s defensive front has been increasingly effective as the season continues on. With a fairly healthy two sacks per game, Western can get pressure in the backfield. On top of solid pressure, the Tops have done really well containing opposing quarterbacks. All of that is really crucial against a Sam Houston team that crucially uses its quarterback for every single offensive snap. On 80 percent of their plays, he is either throwing or making a decision in the running game. Wouldn’t it make sense to put stress on him and see if he performs to perfection? He has made mistakes on the ground and through the air. If I’m Tyson Summers, it’s all about the quarterback. Stop him and you stop the Bearkat offense. Furthermore, I would allow him to pass all he wants. Load up on the run, blitz often, and deal with it if they beat you on some big plays. Don’t be surprised if you see a “Bear” front with five down linemen to stop the run.
Stifle the Run at All Costs
Sam Houston is yet to pass for more than 229 yards in one game. To me, if they get that number or even higher, I’m not that worried about it. Frankly, if they do that, they’re playing your game and not theirs. If it’s me, I’m plugging the middle with girth and I’m putting speed on the edge and at linebacker and we’re manning up and shutting you down. Go ahead and run. We’ll bring you down. And if you want to win with your quarterback who doesn’t throw 60 percent on the year, please, by all means, go ahead and go for it.
Qua’vez Humphries Held to Two Explosive Plays or Less
SHSU’s leading receiver only has 12 catches on the year. Yes, I said twelve. However, for every catch, he gains 23.42 yards. Every third time he catches the ball, he scores. He’s dangerous, and letting him completely shred you on play action for 65 yard touchdowns would allow Sam Houston to possibly find that edge they need. He may bust one. He may get another big one. But don’t let him bust more than two, and it’s hard to see Sam Houston coming up with enough if WKU can be effective in slowing down the run, focusing on the quarterback, and keeping SHSU’s lone serious threat for a big play to minimal explosives.
Prediction
This has the making of a whale of a game, a chess match, an instant classic, one for the ages, a real humdinger. Vegas likes Sam Houston by three, with the line opening at 2.5. Clearly Vegas isn’t sure, either. That’s where I’m at with this. I think WKU is plenty capable and probably more talented, but SHSU is really, really good. Anyone thinking their 5-1 record is a fluke doesn’t know college football.
This is really even. Both quarterbacks can play. Both make mistakes. Both backfields can run with a stable of contributors. Both receiving corps have big bodies along with players that can beat you one-on-one. Both teams have good players in the trenches. Both teams can tackle and minimize the big plays. Both teams have players in the secondary that can be solid as well as be spectacular.
Both teams have good kickers, and both teams, despite my emphasis on SHSU’s punting and kickoffs, have good special teams play.
But there’s something about this WKU team that I can’t put my finger on that makes them special. There’s that “it” about this team that takes them to the next level of good. There’s really no significant weakness in any of the phases of the game at any position.
So I cautiously and thoughtfully choose to pick WKU in this one. I am by no means confident, and I by no means dismiss the advantage of the comfortability of playing at home for Sam Houston. However, I just think this WKU team is going to make it happen this year. And you know what? They may lose this game. This is a small margin between these two teams. Either team wins at least four of ten times they play.
I think the difference is two things:
WKU’s special teams really could make the difference if all else is equal.
WKU’s offensive ceiling is higher.
If the game plays out evenly, nine yards per punt, three on kickoff, and an out-of-bounds or two to set up WKU at the 35, it could swing in WKU’s way with invisible yardage.
WKU’s offense has the higher ceiling to score. If this becomes a shootout, who do you like? Definitely WKU. If this is a low-scoring affair, who is always in the game, even if they’re down two touchdowns? WKU. If it’s even, if WKU doesn’t wear down from Sam Houston’s bludgeoning style up front, I like WKU slightly in that type of game, too.
Tops win in some kind of weird score line with a bunch of field goals (or something else weird like a 2 point conversion or a safety) and the Tops seal it with a turnover in the final two minutes.
Eat ‘em up, Tops.
Western Kentucky 29-Sam Houston State 26.
Conclusion: Living on the Edge
The title above could mean many things. WKU’s defensive ends and hybrid linebackers need to set the edge for the defense. WKU Football is on the edge of announcing itself as the most proven contender in CUSA thus far this season.
But I specifically refer to the razor’s edge that this game will be one and lost on. It could be a blowout, I guess, but most likely, this game comes down to a mistake. It comes down to who can stop somebody at the goal line, or who can stop somebody on third and fourth down. It comes down to a big return, or a pick six.
Whatever happens, we’re here for it, Tops.
Any real Western fan should be absolutely glued to ESPN2 at 6 PM on Wednesday night.
Get ready, Tops and Kats. It should be a good one.
It’s now the meat of Conference USA season in football, basketball news is springing up, Volleyball and Soccer are deep in CUSA play and prepping for the postseason, and the Topper fall calendar is in full swing. Don’t you want to be connected with the only WKU outlet that provides real, unbiased perspective with live tweeting, breaking news, a podcast, and full-length articles? No one else does exactly what we do, and it’s all for FREE! There’s no charge for the one stop shop that is The Towel Rack!
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GO TOPS!!!!