Family Dinner Table: Tops Allow EKU to Hang Around, Roll EKU Late, 31-0
FB: Like Sister Schubert’s or them there thick buttery ones at the Texas Roadhouse, WKU rolled EKU 31-0.
WKU Football fans can rest a little easier. Although the Tops squandered more opportunities (2) inside the red zone early on, the Tops got going in a somewhat sluggish performance on the scoreboard.
17-0 for the majority of the game, WKU added two touchdowns late to lock in the 31-0 final score.
Western did move the ball, amassing 467 yards of total offense, so all in all, a relatively acceptable performance offensively.
However, the main story in this game was the WKU defense. Pitching a shutout, WKU had one scare when EKU inexplicably made it to within inches of a touchdown, chose to kick a chip shot field goal after an 11+ minute drive instead of going for it…and missed.
Western’s defense also held EKU well under 300 yards of total offense (266 total yards). The first shutout since dumping FIU 73-0 in 2022, WKU pitched its first shutout of EKU for the first time in half a century (1973 35-0).
WKU heads to rival MTSU next week.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
Before and after each game, Matt and David will put their own spins on their thoughts on the matchup. In a preview article, they’ll talk about what they see, whatever that may be, whether it’s about the food at the stadium, fan experience, roster depth, or big picture football thoughts. One will go and then the other.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck, this one’s for you.
“I brought you into this world, and I’ll take you out!” -David McCay
Why did I think 70-7?
I will try to validate my estimated but slightly far fetched score prediction I made in previous articles first. This game could have been 70-7 as I predicted, but there were a few things that stopped that from happening.
WKU only had nine possessions. Thus, WKU scoring 70 was impossible.
Western initially struggled in the red zone again this week. One field goal and a turnover on downs in the first two drives assisted in this feeling. But after looking at the play by play, WKU was in the red zone seven of nine possessions and scored four TDs and a field goal with the two turnovers on downs. These two drives could have easily been TDs or at least attempts for Lucas Carneiro #10. Maybe WKU coaches felt pressured to score TDs, instead of scoring field goals on drives. This is a rivalry game and points are points.
EKU had a monster 17 play drive that took 11:46 off the clock to start the second half. It lasted so long that at one point Matt and I looked at each other and said, “Holy Moly! EKU has had the ball the entire quarter!” This limited WKU’s ability to have the ball and score in the second half.
EKU should have scored a TD on this drive, but missed a 17 yard field goal instead.
Western had no explosive touchdown plays on offense or defense this game.
There were only two turnovers in the game (one for each team).
EKU played a very conservative defensive game, blitzing very little, keeping the ball in front of them.
Some of the positives
Western Kentucky’s offense showed improvement. Western amassed 25 first downs, six-of-ten on third down, 467 total yards, four TDs and only one turnover.
TJ Finley #2 was effective and accurate as a passer in this game. Finley completed 27 of 39 attempts (69.2%) for 351 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. This is 13 yards per completion and nine yards per attempt. All are season highs. Of the 12 incompletions, five or six were off target and the rest were drops or well defended.
WKU has a running game, albeit (at least for now) by committee, rushing for 119 yards on 25 carries (4.6 yards per rush). Elijah Young #3 led the Toppers with 52 yards on 12 carries and two TDs. Good things happen when Western runs for more than 100 yards.
WKU wide receivers made big plays (13 of more that 10 yards and six of more than 20 yards). The Tops’ biggest chunk play was a 42 yard pass from TJ Finley to Kisean Johnson #0. Kisean led the Toppers with six receptions for 119 yards.
Western committed only three penalties the entire game for 28 yards.
The DEFENSE was awesome. The line pressure was consistent. Blitzes got home more frequently. They gave up few big plays. WKU gave up only 13 first downs, 76 yards passing, 266 total yards, 27% 3rd down efficiency, and the most important: ZERO points.
Some of the negatives
WKU defense gave up 190 yards rushing, had only one sack, and caused only one turnover.
That is about it. I was a nice game.
David’s Final Thoughts
TJ Finley looked much improved and along with it the WKU offense. The offensive line played well keeping Finley clean most of the game, allowing ZERO sacks and very few hits or hurries. I was impressed with the last two drives for the Hilltoppers and how TJ was able to handle the pressure caused by EKU blitzing. Finley led WKU to two TDs on the last two drives. In the fourth quarter, Dalvin Smith #17 caught six balls for 38 yards and the lone passing TD. TJ’s scramble and throw to Dalvin was very nice to see.
If the fourth quarter is how the WKU offense and defense start playing like, I can not wait to see more.
“You forced me into this world; I’ll force you out!” -Matt McCay
There are plenty of ways to look at things, and I still would caution people in proclaiming knowing anything about how this season will go.
In one way, WKU bounced back, gained a lot of yards, and played wonderful defense, performing better than an SEC defense did against the Colonels in Week One.
In another way, WKU’s red zone offense is officially concerning. Before finishing it off a couple of times at the end of the game, WKU was sitting at nearly double digit trips to the red zone and only 17 points to show for it.
WKU also gave up 190 rushing yards. What if EKU had connected on their wide open receivers in the first half? There were several times the Eastern QB just absolutely threw the ball into another zip code. It could have been way more interesting if he could have gotten his wide open receivers the football. Also, WKU allowed EKU to hang around virtually all game, not sealing the deal until the two late touchdowns. In theory, down 17-0, at any point, EKU could have scored a touchdown and been within three minutes or so of potentially tying the game. That’s dangerous!
Slice it how you want. Heck, Alabama looked pretty average against USF, sitting at 14-13 late. They scored four touchdowns in the final six minutes. Eastern lost to Mississippi State 56-7. Mississippi State was getting blown out at Arizona State before making it interesting late. You can read into all of that if you want. I would caution scoreboard watching. In most seasons, all that matters is pulling it together in Conference USA.
TJ Finley Much Better, Not Perfect
WKU starting QB TJ Finley received some heat from a poor performance against Alabama. Against EKU, he passed for over 350 yards and did not have any turnovers.
He did have several throws early in the game that were inaccurate. He short-armed a surefire touchdown on fourth down. He threw some balls behind the receiver, especially early on. He’s going to spray the ball every once in a while, and he may be one of those guys that has to get warmed up before you see his best stuff.
Overall, Finley was 27-for-39 and had a nice, clean game. Finley made some true “pro” throws, and a few of his misses were really nice balls (the fade to Easton Messer in the corner of the end zone for example). His arm is so strong that he catches his receivers by surprise.
WKU Has a Defense!
WKU showed flashes a couple of times at Alabama, but obviously the 63-0 scoreline really put a damper on things. But this game, obviously WKU improved, blanking EKU. Western has forced turnovers and gotten a sack in both games. Against EKU, the Tops found their way into the EKU backfield, logging eight tackles for loss.
We knew there may be some pieces. LBs and DBs seemed to be fairly deep coming in, but the D-Line has been disruptive thus far. Both Alabama and certainly EKU struggled with the WKU pressure.
WKU’s Defensive Line Good for the First Time in Years
Specifically, the D-Line has been such a bright spot for the Topper defense thus far. Perhaps not massively productive in terms of numbers, the defensive line has been a tangible presence in both games.
WKU has not had a significantly impactful defensive line in years. Western has had some prolific sack guys (DeAngelo Malone, JaQues Evans), but those guys were largely on their own.
Western’s front six or seven can generate pressure consistently.
Tyson Helton’s Decision Making Still Concerning
I understand WKU won by 31, so a lot of times, these types of comments fall on deaf ears. But if we don’t point it out now, it’s hard sometimes to remember all of the things that were questionable that could have warned us of impending issues.
I also understand going for it on fourth down and all of that. Here’s my issue, though. You go for it on 4th-and-3 at the 8 yard line. Ok. It’s 3-0. Is 6-0 vs 3-0 not a big difference? Yes it is. Second of all, you don’t know how the points and margins and all of that shake out later in the game. If WKU gets that first down and gets stalled at the three yard line, do you go for it again? Or do you kick the field goal at that point?
I get the logic, but this is the mentality that caused you to get blown out by Ohio State last year. This is the thought process that got exposed last season when games got tighter. I firmly stand in the camp of taking points unless it’s a long field goal, it’s in no man’s land, or you have a strategic need for getting a touchdown. If you’re down 4+ and the clock is winding down, fine. Obviously go for it. But if you’re not a yard or two away, your percentages of getting the first down are not that great, and the chances you get the first down and proceed to score a touchdown are even less. In other words, the better result is not likely, and the guaranteed points make a big difference early in the game. The opponent you’re playing shouldn’t matter for beans to you. Don’t let the jersey opposite you affect good football strategy.
Speaking of which, late in the third quarter, WKU goes for it on 4th-and-goal from the EKU 2 yard line. I understand putting the game away, and two more inches on the ball and George Hart III likely catches the ball. Now, for me, this is more debatable. You have two yards to paydirt, and there’s nothing to do after you get first down. This is a little more reasonable, but also, it’s 17-0 and it’s late in the third quarter. Personally, I see a lot of benefit in forcing EKU to earn three touchdowns. With two touchdowns and a field goal, there’s an easy out on any possession of your choosing.
Think of the field goal that they just missed. If EKU makes that field goal, they are legitimately within striking distance. If they kick a field goal down 20-0 in the fourth quarter, we all point and laugh at them because that would be the most idiotic, pointless field goal in the history of the Battle of the Bluegrass. It takes away the option for an easy out. In a game that was very defensive, points are premium, and you certainly don’t know for sure if you’re going to score any more points given how much trouble you have had in the red zone.
Again, keep an eye on the decision making. It was very good most of the time early in his career as WKU HC, but last year, the decision making was called way more into question.
Grading the Keys to Victory
WKU Should Control the Line of Scrimmage: B+
WKU definitely controlled the line of scrimmage in this one, and frankly (other than the QB spraying balls on open receivers), that’s why WKU won. Western wore down Eastern, and the floodgates opened a little bit in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, it was a fairly close game. WKU screwed up in the redzone and made questionable decisions, but TJ Finley stood upright all night. Very rarely did he even need to hitch up or slide around to make a play. Defensively, WKU recorded eight tackles for loss, a number that would be top 50 in the country if sustained over a full season.
TJ Finley and/or Caden Veltkamp Need to Look Like Excellent Quarterbacks: B
TJ Finley pretty much put my mind at ease. I would like to see more touchdown production against an FCS opponent. I would like to see red zone execution. I would like to see easy throws made. I would like to see balls not getting sprayed WAY behind receivers and things like that. But that happened a few times. To expect the man to be incredibly accurate is not required. With an arm like his, he just needs to be slightly above average in accuracy to be great, because he’s going to make some throws that are just ridiculous. He made some ridiculous throws Saturday against Eastern, especially after the first few drives. I give him a solid “B”, because he gave enough to take a sigh of relief, but still, some of the touch and awareness pieces are still somewhat in question. What I don’t question is whether he’s capable of being great. I don’t question whether he can. I question whether he actually will be great.
Keep an Eye on the Defensive Line Pressure: B
The Topper D-Line is still not getting home and sacking the quarterback, but EKU also dropped back to pass less than 25 times. They attempted 20 passes, but WKU’s D-Line also strip-sacked and recovered the football, got the aforementioned eight TFL, and only allowed a few chunk plays of over 20 yards. Overall, you have to be pleased, but against an FCS opponent, you want to see more sacks than just one in an entire game.
Control the Feel of the Game: A+
Although this game was within reach for over 50 minutes for EKU, it never really felt like they had a chance. WKU was moving the ball, controlling most things, and with the exception of the EKU drive down to the 1 yard line, WKU pretty much did what they wanted within reason. It never felt in doubt, although it was absolutely in doubt for the vast majority of the game.
WKU just needs to cash in on its opportunities. By my count, WKU is missing a good 35 or so net points off of the scoring margin (offense or defense) in two games. In other words, Western is screwing itself to the tune of over two touchdowns per game so far. And this happened pretty equally in both games. Against Alabama, I counted 24 or so points (conservatively) that easily could have swung in the other direction. Against EKU, I count less, but I still see the EKU chip shot field goal (-3), the two turnovers on downs (+10), and the Easton Messer toe tap that just missed (+7). That’s about two net touchdowns vs an FCS opponent.
Some of these missed opportunities are more egregious than others, and some were just kind of bad luck. But WKU cannot shoot itself in the foot all season and skate by. They aren’t good enough to just play with their food. They must be efficient. If they are efficient, though, with a QB that can throw and (hopefully) be accurate and a defense that can actually get pressure up front and make life difficult in the pass game, my goodness. The Tops could have a great season.
Stop the Run: C-
EKU loves to run the ball, and inserting the backup QB halfway through the game and running read option was a curveball. There’s a little leniency there, and also, clearly, WKU was quite successful stopping the pass and gave up some things in the run game in order to be sure EKU was one dimensional. However it’s done, I don’t really care. WKU forced EKU to beat them on the ground, and they couldn’t. In fact, EKU went nearly all run through the first drive to open the second half and basically bled out the clock on itself. And when they did get down deep, the Tops got the stop they needed against the EKU run game.
A passing grade, but concerning. The pass defense has been pretty good in both games, all things considered. WKU got gashed for run plays against Alabama. The Topper D gave up its big plays on the ground against Eastern. Therefore, I pass them, but not by much.
Matt’s Overall Impression
I think the EKU game created a few more concerns, but I think it also resolved the biggest question marks. Against a comparable to inferior opponent, Western looked like a good football team. They brought balance. They can run and pass. Later in the game, when they needed a good run game, they got it. They finished. They got the shutout (a HUGE feather in the cap). They can pressure the quarterback. They can protect their own quarterback. They have enough quality everywhere.
We also know the Tops need to work on their red zone offense, and we know TJ Finley needs to continue to try to have touch on the football. If he can take a little sauce off the ball at times, his receivers will be able to catch his bullets way more often. WKU needs a better running game, still, but the Tops have two viable running backs and a third made an appearance and got in there a little bit (Jalen Hampton with one rush for three yards).
The biggest barometer by far thus far comes with the MTSU game Saturday.
Conclusion
WKU gets it done. At the end of they day, you paid EKU six figures to lose to you and you had them lose to you and got some quality reps in. EKU is probably a little better than the Hilltopper practice squad, so this was a good thing for WKU, and they (barely) passed the test.
We know some things about Western at this point, but CUSA time is nigh. It is now time to get off to a good start. MTSU coach Derek Mason may have his faults, and he is having to rebuild a roster and undo many of the mediocre expectations of the Rick Stockstill regime at Middle Tennessee. If nothing else, he is bringing enthusiasm and interest back to MTSU.
Just like EKU was a rivalry game, MTSU is a rival. But multiply the intensity by five times. This is a conference game, the two teams are presumably much more evenly matched, and Derek Mason is a coach with Power Five level head coaching experience, whereas EKU’s coach (whether we remember his WKU years fondly or not) does have the same resume.
Also, this is the first conference game. Both teams are 0-0 and the first two weeks mean absolutely nothing. WKU could look the favorite, and MTSU could beat them 100-0 (and I would crawl under a rock and ask God to finish me). The interns at ESPN (as we like to say on RedOut Podcast) like WKU for a 51 percent chance to win, and the betting line sits at 7.5 (a very interesting line for betters). The line feels right, and WKU should probably be a little bit more of an outright favorite, but the overall number is based on metrics and not any kind of eye test.
It’s a toss-up. So get ready for 100 Miles of Hate, let’s keep supporting the Tops, and let’s get down to Murfreesboro and stomp the MUTS.
BEAT MIDDLE!
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