Family Dinner Table: Tops With a Tough Test at Altitude at NMSU Saturday
FB: Halfway home to a regular season championship, WKU travels to Las Cruces, New Mexico, looking for CUSA win number 5. NMSU plays well at home, and altitude can always mess with a team unaccustomed.
Western Kentucky is heading to third base and it looks like they’ll be waived home. The question for the Tops is there’s a collection of rocks on the base paths that could trip them up called New Mexico State.
Although New Mexico State (2-6, 1-4 CUSA) is not nearly as good as last season, the Aggies play extremely well at home and have good enough fan support to get a boost in their friendly confines at their home facility in Las Cruces.
NMSU has earned its two wins at home and has been in every game at home, including nearly knocking off Liberty early in the year. On the road, they are yet to play within 20 points of anyone. Also, after starting with two games at home, they’ve only had two games at home since the very beginning of the year. Considering they are the most geographically western school in Conference USA, this is just a brutal scheduling coincidence and almost certainly has cost them competitiveness on the road.
So guess what? WKU (6-2, 4-0 CUSA), who truly has one of the toughest CUSA schedules in the entire conference, has another significant test to get through. If the Tops win CUSA or even get into the championship game, they will have to beat four of the tougher teams in the conference, starting with New Mexico State.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account. Every once in a while, those bricks clank against the backboard and find their way into the bucket. Most often, it probably looks like you in your backyard shooting it off of the gutters of your house, Jackie Moon.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
Before and after each game, Matt and David will put their own spins on their thoughts on the matchup. In a preview article, they’ll talk about what they see, whatever that may be, whether it’s about the food at the stadium, fan experience, roster depth, or big picture football thoughts. One will go and then the other. In a postgame article, they will react with whatever vitriol or euphoria they feel at the time.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
Papa McCay
If this game was in the friendly confines of L.T. Smith Stadium, this game would be a blow out, because New Mexico State averages losing on the road by 31. But because it is at New Mexico State at altitude in Las Cruces, New Mexico, it will be much closer. I believe Western will win. But I will not predict 70-14 like I did last week, because I was hoping WKU would score more than Jacksonville State against same opponents. I will not make that same mistake again. Jacksonville State’s offense has been nearly unstoppable in Conference USA play. Western has just been unbeatable.
But this is New Mexico State that WKU is playing, lest I get ahead of myself a few weeks. The Aggies at home average 29.2 points per game, give up 31.2 points per game, and have a 2-2 record. They beat La Tech and SE Missouri and lost to New Mexico and Liberty. All of these games were close. This is a different team at home than when they are away in every statistical way.
New Mexico State Leaders
There are two quarterbacks that see regular action for the Aggies. Parker Awad #15 has completed 40 of 92 passes for 518 yards, four TDs, three interceptions, and has been sacked nine times. Santonio Marucci #18 has completed 33 of 73 passes for 310 yards, two TDs, three interceptions, and has been sacked five times.
Seth McGowan #1 is the leading rusher with 105 carries for 523 yards and two TDs, plus has 11 catches for 89 yards and another TD. Mike Washington #4 has 88 carries for 384 yards and four TDs, plus 5 catches for 89 yards and another TD. 14 players have divided 310 rushes this season for the Aggies. So expect to see rushing from almost anyone on the field at any given time, but mostly running backs and quarterback.
PJ Johnson III #0 has 14 catches for 229 yards and a TD. TJ Pride #17 has 21 receptions for 215 yards and a TD. Kordell David #11 has 15 receptions for 115 yards and zero TDs. 13 players have caught passes this season.
Abraham Montano #89 is the Aggie’s excellent place kicker. Abraham is 12 of 12 on extra points and 12 of 13 on field goals with a long of 57. The only miss was from greater than 50 yards.
Tyler Martinez #35 is the leading tackler with 61. Da’Marcus Crosby #2 adds another 52 tackles. Kale Edwards #9 leads New Mexico State with four sacks. Josiah Cox #0 has grabbed two of the three team interceptions. The Aggies defense has forces two fumbles, but has no recoveries.
Western Kentucky Leaders
Caden Veltkamp #10 is the leading passer for WKU and has been added to the Davey O’Brien list for best NCAA quarterbacks as reported by WKU Athletics on 10/29/24. After taking over the quarterback position against MTSU after TJ Finley’s Injury, Caden in six games has completed 131 of 186 pass attempts for 1,704 yards, 17 TDs, five interceptions, plus rushed for 124 net yards (includes 14 sacks) and five TDs. Since Caden took over, WKU is 5-1.
Sitting behind the offensive benches and watching the interaction between players, coaches, and staff is very interesting. TJ Finley #2 has been present and involved in every game since his injury. Whether it is on the bench going over plays with Caden and coaches, encouraging players, or cheering on plays, TJ is a positive presence on the sideline. It is encouraging to see. Finley was out of his boot last week and could return to active status sometime this month.
Elijah Young #3 continues to lead the Toppers rushing attack with 117 carries for 489 yards and two TDs, plus 26 receptions for 247 yards and a TD. Elijah and his running back mates have improved steadily over the season as the offensive line has been opening bigger holes. Add the fact that 11 players have rushing yards, then throw a few spins, hurdles, stiff arms, and a bulldozer move or two and Western’s rushing is now as exciting to watch as the passing attack.
Kisean Johnson #0 continues to lead the WKU receiving corps with 41 receptions for 557 yards and four TDs. This exciting transfer from Alabama State is big and muscular, standing at 6’1” and 216 pounds. Also, Kisean is approaching career highs in receptions (62) and yardage (793) regardless of level of intercollegiate competition.
Sophomore receiver Easton Messer #8 continues to improve this season and has been added to the Burlsworth Trophy list as reported by WKU Athletics on 11/6/24. This NCAA award is for the best former walk-on athlete of the season. Easton has 30 catches for 426 yards and three TDs, and is also just short of besting his output last season.
Western has 17 players that have caught passes, and yes, that includes TJ Finley catching his own pass. Eight of those 17 players have seven or more receptions, and nine players have caught TDs. So defenses cannot leave anyone uncovered, because given enough time, Caden or TJ will find that open player.
After missing his first attempt at Alabama, Lucas Carneiro #17 has connected on all nine of his subsequent field goal attempts, making him 9 of 10 with a long of 54 yards. Plus, Lucas is 29 of 29 on extra points. Carneiro is a weapon that coaches need to utilize the rest of the season, especially on the road when points and drives are at a premium.
Western’s bend but don’t break, blitzing from anywhere and everywhere, cause me to have a heart attack defense is really good and fun to watch mostly. I have been over critical most of the season as most of the big opponent plays have been on mistimed or mislocated blitzes, but when you average giving up less than 15 points in the last seven games, it is dangerous to be too critical.
The Western defense is led in tackles, interceptions, and fumble recoveries by Devonte’ Matthews #14 with 40 tackles, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries. Twelve players now have 20 or more tackles as this defense is deep at every position and everyone contributes. After two sacks in the closing minutes against Kennesaw State, linebacker Darius Thomas #3 leads the team in sacks with four. If you want to have fun this Saturday watching the Toppers’ defense, try these two things before the play:
Where is the blitz coming from?
What position will Upton Stout #21 be playing? When in the game, Upton plays everywhere.
Conclusion for the Old Man
To take New Mexico State lightly at home would be a terrible mistake. Especially since, WKU has never played well against them. Western needs to add another skin/trophy to the pile and keep the momentum and wins rolling. By skins/trophies, I made a taxidermy reference in previous article. We have beat the Bearkats, MTSU’s “My Little Pony”, and Kennesaw’s Owl and trophies like Colonel’s hat and beard from EKU, a miner’s axe, and whatever you can take off a rocket.
I believe this game will be closer than the 18 points Vegas is predicting. WKU gets this done 31-28 and moves on to next week. GO TOPS!!!
Young Buck McCay
With this weird CUSA midweek scheduling, this has actually bought WKU some time in the middle of the year to get some rest. Multiple weeks now, the Tops have had at least ten days of rest.
If you’ve ever played football, been around a team, or just kind of know football in general, you probably know how valuable extra days are. If you don’t, having extra time to recover mentally and physically is massive.
Well, WKU has gotten that in what otherwise has been and will be a brutal 2024 schedule. Not one game has been easy, but neither has it been for New Mexico State, who has spent four of its last six games on the road, winning one of its two home games and losing all of its road games.
Fortunately for both teams, they come in well rested in this one. NMSU played last Tuesday against FIU, while Western faced a Kennesaw State team recently sparked with momentum.
Distractions
A major key for me is something that we’ll never know the result unless someone says something. However, going out west for a long flight and an equipment truck needing a full 24 hours to travel to Las Cruces (I assume they’ll drive the truck) is a logistical nightmare.
They will have to change the practice schedule Thursday to accommodate the equipment getting there by Friday or just accept that the truck will be coming in on two wheels. That could be a distraction. The flight is every bit of 4.5 hours. That’s a long flight for 100+ huge people. It can really mess with big bodies to be in rarified air that long.
Speaking of rarified air, how about the altitude? How does WKU handle that? Does the team have enough time to acclimate by showing up sometime Friday? Do you have them run some light drills Friday to have their muscles and hearts engaged before warming up Saturday? These are all things I know we would’ve dealt with, and long trips were never easy. I remember going to FIU, Texas State, and Army were all tight timeline related to the equipment truck. One time, we forgot some stuff, and we just had to make due. When you’re that far away, you can’t fix mistakes like forgotten equipment if you’re literally across the country.
This is a factor. How does the team handle it? How are they mentally? How are they physically? How do they acclimate to being 20-30% more worn out per rep, not including the strain of travel?
At the End of the Day, Who Cares How You Win?
You’re the favorite. Find a way. Tops are favored by 18, and they should be. They’re clearly the better team. They clearly have the better offense and defense. Special teams is more even, but still, WKU should clearly wipe the floor. The problem is that NMSU plays really well at home.
A lot of it is probably altitude. But the other part is they’re just really comfortable in Las Cruces. And there’s also something about fans west of the Mississippi. I firmly believe there’s more energy per person than there is in this part of the country. Even if NMSU has 12,000 people show up, they will be more of a factor than if WKU had 20,000 fans.
Also, keep in mind that NMSU has six losses. They will be on absolute alert that another loss means they will not go bowling. Never underestimate the power of a desperate locker room. They will be desperate to keep their hopes alive. Speaking from experience, once you get that seventh loss, reality sets in. Until that crushing day, you always have hope and you’re fully engaged believing you’re going to conquer the world that year. Never underestimate it when a team is on the precipice. They can pull something special out every once in a while.
But guess what? All of that crapola doesn’t really matter. WKU is the better team. Find a way, Tops. No excuses.
QB Thoughts
Caden Veltkamp continues to learn, but he is absolutely a much better QB than he was a few weeks ago. He’s still not producing Zappe/Doughty/White-esque numbers, but so what? No one in the history of college football has been as good as Bailey Zappe statistically. Few have been better than the Topper legends of fairly recent memory.
But Veltkamp is still elite nationally, and when you add in that he can run the ball on 3rd-and-short and get it half the time adds a dimension those guys never had. And it adds a huge wrinkle to the defense to know they can’t allow 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 and not expect to get a dose of a 6’6” behemoth falling forward for at least a yard the very next play. That’s a lot of pressure on a defense, and that’s something any quarterback since Kawaun Jakes left The Hill has not forced a team to do: Defend against a true dual threat.
Veltkamp must show improvement in the coming weeks in his pocket awareness, protecting the football, making good decisions, and continuing to understand the situation. For example, if you’re in the red zone, don’t scramble around running for your life, risk the ball, and lose significant yardage. Understand down and distance. Make good checks.
These are things he is doing better with, but these are also things he tangibly can do better with at the current moment. Take that next step, big fella.
Keys to Victory
Depth Must Show Up
You want to talk about something really important? WKU is going to need whoever steps on the field to contribute. The Tops will almost certainly choose to play more players to avoid exhaustion at altitude. How does that work out? If they choose not to, do the players they play make a significant impact?
Watch for how many players make plays. See if the Tops sprinkle in a third or fourth running back. Let’s see if the Tops rotate defensive players a little more than normal. I’m interesting to see what strategy they employ, but I think wisdom says play more players.
Reload the Reload
Guess what? For the third straight game, WKU plays a team with a quarterback that is better with his legs than his arm. Against Sam Houston, we said to play assignment football and focus in on the quarterback. Against Kennesaw State, we said to play assignment football, but add a little more focus to the RBs, especially the very versatile Qua Ashley. Well, against NMSU, the Aggies have two RBs who average more than four yards per carry and have multiple touchdowns on the year. If you choose to count two more backup RBs that can also claim a 4+ average per carry.
In my opinion, assignment football is the order for this game. Stop the run and dare them to pass. WKU may give up a big play through the air here and there, but stifling the run makes it really difficult for NMSU to get ahead of the sticks, and it eventually forces an opponent to kick a field goal or punt. It’s extremely difficult to punch the ball in once the field gets shorter without a good running threat.
Win Third Down
Sometimes, third down can be an anomaly. Game to game, sometimes you just find success or completely fail once you get to third (and fourth) down. Sometimes a couple of third downs in the course of a game change how you look at how you fared. Third down is crucial in this one. NMSU is not good at stopping third downs nor getting them on offense. A huge coup for them would be for them to suddenly be good on either or both sides of the ball on third down. If it’s close, watch out for those big moments and how each team is faring.
Punting
After a couple of weeks of poor punting, it’s now time to get specific: WKU needs good punting to be an elite football team. With a good defense and an offense that’s not as explosive as it has been in recent years, it’s even more important to have good special teams. For the most part, WKU’s special teams are excellent, but WKU Punter Cole Maynard has been absolutely struggling in his last two games. At one time with an average punt of 47 yards, Maynard’s recent shankaliciousness has dropped his average to 43.
WKU just needs him to stabilize and be productive. Both of the last two opponents directly benefitted from the poor punting. I’m sure coaches Schwettman and LaRussa are both working with him on his drops, his consistency, his head space. I’m sure they’ll have him straight soon. But it’s incredibly important in an offense with less margin than some years to be good in the punting game. Remember when the Tops had John Haggerty? The incredible Australian would boom it for 55-60 at times and almost never miss or come close to getting blocked.
Four Quarters
WKU has had some lulls in the recent games, seeing long periods of time without production. If WKU is going to be elite, especially offensively, the Tops need to get off to a good start and stay hot and humming for four quarters. If they can do that, who can beat them? It’s hard to see anyone but Jacksonville State beating a WKU offense scoring 40. The Gamecocks would be the lone threat if WKU had a four quarters mentality on offense. Wouldn’t it be nice to eliminate the possibility of certain teams beating the Tops? Then it would be down to executing against those couple of teams that still can threaten them when they play well.
Matt’s Prediction
Listen I won’t take too long to get to the point. I think WKU should win this thing. And I don’t really care that NMSU hasn’t lost a game by more than ten at home all year. So what? They haven’t played anybody, either. Their toughest opponent was Liberty, who is (we think) not as good as WKU this season. So why shouldn’t WKU blow out the opponent? If it doesn’t happen, it’s because WKU didn’t execute. It will not be because NMSU forced WKU into a dogfight.
Tops by 90.
Give me WKU 44-NMSU 17.
Conclusion: Tops Must Respect NMSU, Need to Sharpen up for Rest of CUSA Play
Apparently David and Matt disagree on the margin, but we both agree that the Tops absolutely should and need to win this one. Losing this one puts every other game in doubt going forward. Sure, the Tops would still be in control of their destiny dropping this one, but each game increases in difficulty from here. Presumably, NMSU would be lesser than La Tech, who would be lesser than Liberty, who would be lesser than Jacksonville State. Then whoever the Tops play in the CUSA Championship (hopefully at The Houch) would be a step up in intensity from there, assuming the Tops don’t drop two of the last four games.
This is a huge test, and David thinks this one could be fairly tight. Matt agrees, but ultimately thinks the Tops step it up and impress the rest of Conference USA. We’ll see where the chips fall, but there should be no question that this is a foregone conclusion.
It’s now the meat of Conference USA season in football, basketball is finally here, Volleyball is deep in CUSA play and prepping for the postseason, and the Topper fall calendar is in full swing. And good luck finding another outlet that provides comprehensive Lady Topper coverage.
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GO TOPS!!!!