Family Dinner Table: University of Texas-El Paso Preview
FB: Can Western Kentucky recover from the loss in Boston and dominate 0-5 UTEP?
It’s now time for the meat of the schedule. It’s time for Conference USA to sort itself out like men, on the battlefield, in the trenches. WKU stands at 1-0, but has seven more games to go before they can claim a seat in the ride to the championship.
WKU opens up its seven CUSA games in a row to wrap up the season with the UTEP Miners, a team that is winless and has looked questionable at best despite preseason expectations of a different caliber. Although UTEP has some obvious ability, an offense that has shot itself in the foot that can’t run the ball has really hampered an otherwise fairly capable team.
WKU returns home to the friendly confines of Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium and does battle with a team desperate for a win to jumpstart its season.
The Miners should not be taken lightly, and if the Toppers are a team of destiny, they should not be complacent against opponents of any presumed caliber.
This past weekend should teach us all to never assume.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account. Every once in a while, those bricks clank against the backboard and find their way into the bucket. Most often, it probably looks like you in your backyard shooting it off of the gutters of your house, Jackie Moon.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
Before and after each game, Matt and David will put their own spins on their thoughts on the matchup. In a preview article, they’ll talk about what they see, whatever that may be, whether it’s about the food at the stadium, fan experience, roster depth, or big picture football thoughts. One will go and then the other. In a postgame article, they will react with whatever vitriol or euphoria they feel at the time.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
Papa McCay
David’s Initial Thoughts
If you look at the numbers, which I will, this game should be a blow out at home on Prime Time Thursday night. I see a score like 42-10, so I will call that here. Now let’s look at some numbers and players.
UTEP come into the matchup 0-5 after losing on Thursday night to Sam Houston 41-21. WKU comes into the contest 3-2 after dropping a close game 21-20 to Boston College over a week ago. Both teams should be well rested and ready to battle under the lights for the 7pm kickoff.
Statistically El Paso is OK defensively, scoring a defensive TD, sacking opponent quarterbacks 12 times, forced seven fumbles recovering 4, and snatched one interception. But UTEP gives up 32.6 points and 435.6 yards per game and opponents have scored 20 TDs. The Miner offense has not been able to score many points this season. The team averages only 15.8 points, 234.4 yards passing, and 86.6 yards rushing per game. Nine turnovers and 39 penalties have hampered their efforts so far. UTEP has seven passing and two rushing TDs for a total of ten (one defensive). They have added three of six field goals. All of this combines for a season total of 79 points. Their turnover ration is -5. Plenty to raise some eyebrows.
Skyler Locklear #9 is a 5’11” 195 pound quarterback from Clayton, North Carolina. Skyler leads the Miners with 710 yards passing and three TDs, but has four interceptions and been sacked nine times. Javon Jackson #4 is the leading rusher with 59 carries for 233 yards. There are four receivers with at least 15 catches. Kenny Odom #6 lead the team with 359 receiving yards and three TDs on 18 receptions. Kam Thomas #5 lead UTEP with 31 receptions for 315 yards and one TD.
Final Thoughts About WKU
WKU now averages 25.2 points and 382.2 yards per game. Western has committed only 25 penalties for 249 yards. Unfortunately, several of these penalties were against Boston College at key moments, allowing them to keep drives alive at the end of the game. On defense for the season, Western gives up 25.2 points and 396.8 yards per game. Since the Alabama game, the numbers are reduced to 15.75 points and 346 yards per game. WKU is now even on turnover ratio.
Since taking over the starting quarterback position full-time after TJ Finley’s injury, Caden Veltcamp #10 has played well in spots, completing 70.4% of his passes for 883 yards and eight TDs, plus rushing for 42 yards and three additional TDs. Caden has thrown four interceptions and fumbled a few times. Caden needs to use good form and throw accurate passes when he is in the game. Veltcamp tends to throw off his back foot on deep passes when rushed. That causes his passes to be short and has led to at least two of the interceptions. This has been pointed out by TV announcers over the past two games. Hopefully, this is something that he and the coaches are working on.
Hopefully WKU’s offensive line will give Veltcamp time to find open receivers. If they do, Western should score 30+ and be able to exploit UTEP’s blitzing defense and get into the 40s. Western’s defense should be able to pressure the Miner quarterbacks, cause turnovers, and get sacks. This has been UTEP’s problem all year, and hopefully will remain true in this game, too. Western should be able to contain UTEP’s score to the low 20s. As I said above, Western should score at least 42 and hold UTEP to 10 or so.
GO TOPS!!!
Young Buck McCay
Big Red Helmets
The major news besides Western trying to get to 2-0 in CUSA is the WKU Equipment Room once again playing chess and not checkers. A truly unique helmet design, WKU will don these beauties in the likeness of WKU’s legendary mascot, Big Red.
How cool are these?!?
Support the Tops
To the fans, I understand it’s fairly late on a Thursday night, but my goodness. WKU is a good football team and they deserve good crowds on national TV. If you can make it, show up! If you believe in supporting local businesses, the local economy, then showing up in person to football games should be what you do. There’s nothing more local and more helpful to Bowling Green than supporting WKU. Support the Tops.
Previewing UTEP
Tyson Helton has said it in his press conferences, and I see it, too: This UTEP team plays hard, plays good defense, and is still getting better despite some losses. They struggle offensively to move the ball on the ground, and they give up significant yardage in the trenches defensively. But they do pass enough to be effective, and they do extremely well against the pass defensively.
The UTEP defense is yet to give up 300 yards passing in one game this season. In fact, they only have one game they gave up more than 228 yards in the air. Also, despite the record, UTEP gives up points in the low 30 points per game. Although those numbers make UTEP a team near the bottom in the country, they are close enough to the middle that they are respectable on that side of the ball.
Keys to Victory
Don’t Lighten Up, Tighten Up!
I remember this was one of the catch phrases under The Houch in the Taggart era. Basically, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.” It’s now time to sharpen up whatever silly issues the Tops have had. Turnovers, lack of aggression philosophically, defensive mishaps, special teams gaffs, offensive inconsistency, whatever. Throw it in the trash, sharpen, and lock in. If the Tops play on a mission, hungry, and together, they’re the best team in Conference USA this season.
1 Ball, 2 Ball, 3 Ball
Former WKU Quarterback Coach Bob Cole used to talk to his QBs about how to throw a ball in certain situations. Caden Veltkamp is still learning how to be an elite college quarterback. One thing he needs to work at is the decisions he makes and how he throws the football. To explain the 1, 2, 3 thing, a 1 ball is a bullet. Throw these into a tight window at medium distance. Don’t throw a bullet to the running back three yards away. A 2 ball is a medium ball with some air under it. This would be a ball that needs some zip but maybe needs to get over a defender. Maybe it’s a cross-field ball that can’t just float over there and not expect a defender to track it and pick it off. But it’s also not a bullet that’s impossible to catch when your guy needs to run under the ball. A 3 ball is an air ball that your guy can run under. Think fade ball. Of course you don’t throw a bullet in that situation.
Anyway, Caden’s a young guy. Watch for him to mature this game. Does he throw nice balls that help his receivers? Does he make poor decisions? Does he try to gunsling it? Does he throw it late over the middle? Watch for some maturity from the QB in this one. The Tops need a good performance through the air.
Keep UTEP Under 25 Points
UTEP has struggled to score this season. 79 points in five games is pretty rough. No question that they struggle. I think WKU does really well as long as they don’t allow UTEP to be successful. We have seen good signs from this defense, but it’s really hard to hold someone under 20 points every game. We think it’s likely Western’s offense can score some. Does WKU’s offense hand over a pick six or two? Does special teams hand back several points? Finally, in combination with those two, can WKU’s defense keep UTEP from being productive on the scoreboard? Under 25 should do it.
Turnover Party
UTEP turns the ball over. WKU’s defense prides itself on turnovers. It’s time to eat. If the Topper defense can force turnovers, that’s just another nail in the coffin for UTEP. If UTEP can play clean, that gives them a chance to take advantage of WKU’s difficulty getting off the field without forcing said turnovers. WKU’s third down defense continues to be one of the worst in the country. WKU still gave up about 50 percent on third down against Boston College despite only surrendering 285 total yards. Imagine if the Toppers could be good on all four downs. The defense would be a dominant force. Regardless of the third down defense, if WKU can make UTEP uncomfortable, the Miners tend to make multiple mistakes per game.
Sack Race
WKU has gotten consistent pressure on the quarterback, and so has UTEP. UTEP’s offensive line has given up 14 sacks already, and WKU struggled last week, giving up nearly as many sacks as they had all season in one game. It remains to be seen if that was an aberration, or if the Tops have regressed up front. Both teams are capable of wreaking havoc up front. WKU needs to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, partly because it should ultimately be an advantage for them, but also, WKU starting QB Caden Veltkamp is still a young QB figuring out how to navigate a pocket. On the strip fumble play late in the game, Caden was seemingly unaware of the pressure coming to his blindside. Protecting him and not allowing UTEP to get near him will be crucial. A turnover like that could be damning in a close game.
Prediction
I won’t waste your time pretending like I think this should be anything but a blowout. Yes, UTEP could genuinely make this a close game. But WKU has no business losing to UTEP. They should be the better team, and they should be more motivated as the team still competing for a CUSA Championship.
UTEP could pull something off if they can protect the football, get some pressure on WKU, and force some mistakes. If they could slow down the WKU air attack, they might be able to hang around and see about pulling something off late to stun the Toppers.
But WKU is better offensively, defensively, and on special teams. UTEP is coached well, but the talent level and depth is not the same. WKU can answer the bell at every position on the field, while UTEP has obvious weaknesses compared to the Tops.
Give me WKU 48-UTEP 14.
Conclusion: Time to Make a Statement, Tops
Both of us feel about the same on this one. WKU should win, and hopefully it’s by a significant margin. The betting lines show something like 20 points or so, and that’s exactly the kind of game this should feel like. This may not be a 45-0 beatdown, but WKU should win it in like a 31-10 kind of affair.
The McCay’s feel like the Tops should take care of business, and there’s no really no serious reason to be scared.
Hopefully, WKU gets its moment in the spotlight on a Thursday night game, takes care of business, and moves on to next week in good shape ready to battle Sam Houston next Wednesday.
If you can’t make it to The Houch Thursday at 7 PM CST, check the game out live on ESPNU.
It’s now the meat of Conference USA season in football, basketball news is springing up, Volleyball and Soccer are deep in CUSA play and prepping for the postseason, and the Topper calendar is in full swing. Don’t you want to be connected with the only WKU outlet that provides real, unbiased perspective with live tweeting, breaking news, a podcast, and full-length articles? No one else does exactly what we do, and it’s all for FREE! There’s no charge for the one stop shop that is The Towel Rack!
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GO TOPS!!!!