Grading the Tops vs. UTSA
We know it was a close three point loss. How did WKU do with the Keys, individually, and as a coaching staff against the Roadrunners?
Now Western Kentucky is firmly on the backfoot with a rivalry game coming up on the road this Saturday and a near-elimination game tilt against a co-favorite in UAB the week after for Homecoming. Then WKU gets the current co-leader and preseason dark horse of Conference USA, North Texas. That’s a brutal run for a team with two close losses in a row. WKU could slide off the rails here and end up 3-6 by the end of October, or they could rebound like they probably should and be 6-3 sitting pretty as the second dog to UTSA in the conference heading into November.
For now, we live in the past and think about what could have been. Isn’t that the way to be? Backup QB Darius Ocean’s probably thinking 30 years from now, “If Coach could’ve just put me in the fourth quarter against UTSA…”
Anyway, WKU came up short in yet another incredible battle with UTSA. WKU was down ten twice but cut the lead twice to three to settle on the final margin at 31-28.
A much lower scoring game than the previous two meetings, UTSA’s seemingly dead-in-the-water defense arose from the tomb of Lazarus and held a really good offense to 28 points, looking frankly like the defense that was supposed to be the better defense (they weren’t supposed to be better).
With all of that being said, how did WKU grade out? What happened?
Grading the Keys to Victory
Spy the Quarterback and Force the RBs to Win It: C
In some ways, A+. In other ways, flat out F. So we’ll average it out. First of all, WKU flirted with pressure early and realized Frank Harris was going to burn them. So good for them for realizing it. However, Frank Harris had 61 yards rushing, higher than his season average despite Western dropping eight people off including a spy or two to combat UTSA’s incredible receivers and dangerous mobile QB.
In hindsight, that didn’t frickin work, so maybe if the Tops get a chance at UTSA in the C-USA Championship, especially if the UTSA RBs are healthy, you have a capable defensive line and linebacking corps. Maybe instead of being so mega conservative that you don’t get much pressure, what if instead you focus on the run or play a more standard version of your defense? Instead of overcompensating and focusing on the passing game and Frank Harris, shut down the running lanes and deal with Frank Harris squirting out a little more and deal with some big pass plays. Sure, you held them down, but you had very few opportunities for big plays because you didn’t force Harris to make too many rushed decisions.
Also, from a pure grading perspective, since they went with this strategy, you then still hope to contain the running backs. They were not contained and combined for over 150. And you still didn’t stop Frank Harris.
Win Against the Law Firm: B-
Honestly, these guys didn’t beat you. Cephus, Franklin, and Clark were held way below their averages by this WKU secondary. Cephus physically won the game at the end on one of the gutsiest one-on-one battles you’ll see between a corner and receiver, but WKU held its own against these guys. Keep in mind, they were averaging over 300 per game and they barely mustered 200 yards and had two touchdowns. However, one of those touchdowns was a fumble recovery by Cephus, so that was really a gift of a touchdown. If you saw three guys averaging a total of 300 yards per game and WKU held them to 205 and a touchdown, isn’t that a win? I would think so.
Be Able to Run the Ball: C
First of all, I understand Robichaux has separated himself as the starter for now. When he gets opportunity, he is doing well with the ball. However, please explain to me how it’s a good idea to only run the running back position 13 times. Also, why would no other RB hardly get snaps? Yes, Ervin-Poindexter got some snaps. Jakairi Moses saw the field, but the other two previous mainstay rotation guys didn’t get a single ball thrown to them, nor did they get a rushing attempt. This is senseless football to me. You’re putting all of the statistical pressure on two guys (Reed) to get it done, neither of which average close to 100 rush yards per game. Robichaux was used in the passing game as he should have been all season. They (Robichaux and Austin Reed) overachieved overall in the running and receiving game and still didn’t produce enough to be a serious game changing threat in the backfield.
I’m not asking for 15 rushes by other running backs, but giving them a chance makes the defense consider them when they come in. Also, if you’re only rushing one running back, shouldn’t he carry the ball more than 13 times? He should probably tote it at least 20, if not 25. If they other RBs are not touching the ball or seeing the field, the defense knows to focus on Robichaux only and only in certain situations that make sense for him to touch the ball. It’s tipping your hand if you absolutely put them in only on third down pass protection, for example. Run them a few times each per game and watch the defense guess more because you’re not showing your cards. And Robichaux will not have all of the pressure on his shoulders. Also, sometimes the backup comes in and produces and you can give them a little more load that game and not hurt the team.
Put Harris on His Back (Without a penalty, please): F
Not only did WKU not sack the QB, they messed with him enough to touch the stat line with a QBH one time. Now, part of that was strategy. They completely backed off after he lit the Tops up on the first drive. He sliced through them like soft butter. However, you still have to pressure the QB. We know he can screw up if he’s pressured. Middle had a chance late in the game the week before because they forced him to throw three interceptions on three straight drives. He was only pressured a few times because WKU sent sometimes as few as two and rarely sent more than four people. I don’t have a problem with an adjustment. However, Harris also ran for 61 yards, so I sincerely take issue with giving him more than his average and still being conservative from a pass rush standpoint.
Try to Score 70: F
First of all, I guess they read this and felt desperation to actually get to that number. Sorry, guys. Guess I should have clarified and made sure you knew I didn’t mean you needed to onside kick down three with momentum? Getting into the grade, honestly, I understand UTSA played out of their mind, I understand they had some people coming back healthy, like Rashad Wisdom, the Preseseason Defensive Player of the Year for C-USA. Like an All-Conference level lineman on a team desperate for line play. Sure. But the Roadrunners were giving up 34 points per game, folks. They had given up at least 24 points and allowed under 30 one time. They were allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game while minimizing the pass comparatively at under 300 yards allowed per game. First of all, Western didn’t even score 30 points. If they had produced that minimum bar of 30, perhaps UTSA doesn’t win. WKU’s defense was absolutely good enough to win the game. But WKU’s offense was not productive on non-scoring drives. There wasn’t even much of a chance to score besides the 28 points the Tops did indeed score.
WKU had a drive that started from the 10 yard line. They drove the ball 48 yards and turned it over on downs. On WKU’s five other non-scoring drives, the Tops gained no more than 29 yards on six plays. In fact, putting together those six drives, none of them had more than seven plays in the drive. On WKU’s scoring drives, Western had to spend at least eight plays to get in the end zone. What does all of that mean? What it means is UTSA did a good job making Western work. They were either effective and got the Tops off of the field before they could threaten the scoreboard, or once WKU got in range, they had to work to get in the end zone. Credit UTSA, but WKU was just plain not physically capable of scoring in the 40s or 50s this game. There were only ten drives total. You can’t even look at certain drives and feel like WKU could have had much more than it did. The Tops had several turnovers on downs, but even those were outside of realistic field goal range and needed another 20 yards to be a comfortable try. Only one was in current field goal range and Narveson would have needed the kick of his career to make it.
Position Grades
Offense Overall: C-
The offense had nice overall passing numbers, kept it clean, and had the Tops in the game enough to win. However, where have all the opportunities gone the last couple of weeks? WKU is 100% in the red zone the last two games and hasn’t scored 30 points in either game. WKU is not getting to the red zone often enough, although they are moving the ball. Part of it in this game was field position. The Tops started several drives fairly deep in their own territory. That’s not helpful when trying to go down and score on every drive. But WKU didn’t really threaten the scoreboard besides the four touchdown drives they did score on. They had a chance at a miracle field goal, but it would’ve had to be the kick of Brayden Narveson’s career. Other than that, the chances were sparse.
I hesitate to say this normally, but I think it goes back to offensive coaching. If the running backs were used more, if the tight ends received more than a couple of targets, if the Tops would just generate some more sustainable drives, these pretty numbers could be accompanied with pretty touchdowns.
Quarterback: A-
I’m not sure you could ask much more of Austin Reed himself. The man rushed for nearly half of the team’s rushing yards while passing for nearly 400 yards, not getting sacked, and not throwing an interception. Would I have liked to see more touchdowns? Sure. You throw that many yards, hopefully you’re putting up four or five total touchdowns. He did have a rushing touchdown, so honestly, please tell me what he did wrong. I’m not sure you can complain too much about his production. I don’t remember as many crazy foolish decisions this game, and I am inclined to say, “He did everything he could to help WKU beat UTSA.” The only ding is just not winning the close game. Ultimately, one of the main barometers for the QB is to win the game, especially if it’s close. But besides only producing three touchdowns with nearly 400 yards, I’m giving him less than an A+ mainly just out of principal more than anything.
Running Back: C
Kye Robichaux himself did a good job. Frankly, as a position, having a total of nearly 100 yards and a touchdown is not a complete disaster. However, it’s not elite, it’s slightly below average, and here’s what baffles me completely: How did no other running back touch the ball the entire game? Where is DEP? Where is Jakairi? Did LT Sanders not earn some respect after coming in and producing only the second 75 yard rushing game on the season in mop up minutes? Somebody else needs to be used. It’s borderline coaching malpractice to literally only rush two people in a 60 minute football game. Jet sweep? Backup RB handoff? Screen pass to a backup on a third down? None of those were attempted.
Wide Receiver: B+
I certainly don’t think the receivers are to blame for anything. I don’t recall any drops or anything just dreadfully awful from them. They took what they got, two guys had over 100, and there was balance within the group and the group produced two touchdowns. You wish the Tops would have found a way on the three turnovers on downs to get it to one of your better players, but overall, what is there to gripe at with the receiving corps?
Tight End: F+
Dalvin Smith was thrown to and made a reception but didn’t gain yardage, and Josh Simon had a catch for ten yards. There is rumor that he may still be battling some kind of lingering effect or spinoff from his injury last year. Whatever the case, where was Joey Beljan? Why isn’t Dalvin Smith being used? You have horses that can run with experience, even if Joshua Simon isn’t at his best (unconfirmed hearsay but noteworthy and plausible). Why aren’t you using them when teams are clogging up the middle and forcing you to pass outside the numbers? Tight ends, running backs, and quarterback runs can loosen up a puckered up defense. You finally ran the quarterback enough and probably more than you needed to, but you sacrificed the tight ends and running backs in exchange for finally running your mobile QB?
Offensive Line: A
I mean, zero sacks and two TFL? Nearly 500 yards of offense? 4.5 yards per rush? These are all slightly above average to very good numbers. Am I missing something? It feels like the offense was individually good enough but just didn’t click in place as a cohesive unit. Western scored four touchdowns, but other than that, there was very little else the Tops did on the night. WKU needs its consistency back offensively. The issue was certainly was not on the offensive line against UTSA.
Defense Overall: B
The defense put the Tops in position to have a chance. They didn’t allow UTSA to just post up outside and drop in the ball to the open receiver. The Tops fought, and even though they gave up yardage, they held an amazing UTSA offense to 31 points. And that’s arguably handing seven points to them in some ways with a short field on a two play touchdown drive. Give the defense credit for the most part. As you’ll see, the defensive line was suspect, but the rest of the defense was pretty good.
Defensive Line: C-
I’m not sure this was the defensive line’s best performance. In a huge bright spot, first time starter Lorenzo Hernandez had a nice game, recording five tackles from the defensive tackle spot. If you want to say half of JaQues Evans’ tackles count for the D-Line, sure. He had five or six, then (11 total). And Juwuan Jones did his part with four tackles and a QBH. However, what about explosive plays? A PBU from Brodric Martin and 1.5 TFL total along with the Jones QBH? Part of the lack of that was being mega conservative with the pass rush, sometimes only sending two or three guys on the rush. Bottom line, the Tops allowed Frank Harris to have time to throw, didn’t force a sack, and didn’t do much in terms of pressure. They also gave up over 200 yards rushing. That generally is a D-Line issue. Also, considering there were no rushes longer than 14 yards, that means the running game was not busted because of big plays, suggesting linebackers were filling up gaps and DBs were contributing as the final line of defense. It was because the D-Line was not being explosive enough (regardless of strategy) to knock back the UTSA offensive line and make some plays that UTSA was able to steadily gouge WKU on the ground.
Linebacker: A-
I think WKU’s linebackers are excellent. Derrick Smith is a revelation and somebody I didn’t anticipate as a key member of this group. JaQues Evans is as good as DeAngelo Malone. Will Ignont is very effective. Several other guys are solid. Here’s what I look at from the linebackers: Explosive plays. Essentially, did the opponent get through the clean-up crew (linebackers) to the third level and make huge plays, especially in the running game? Absolutely not. Although UTSA did gain a ton of yardage, they had to work for it. It really suggests a solid defense that knows what it’s doing, but it also suggests the linebackers are really good and it was up to the rest of the defense to perform better. If the linebackers weren’t good, they wouldn’t show up in the stat sheet. They were plenty present in this one.
Defensive Back: B+
I know y’all are probably wondering what I’m smoking, but please go look at UTSA’s top three receivers, who literally average(d) 98+ yards per game each. Now look at what WKU did to them! No one even got to 100, and they barely totaled 200, not even getting to 2/3 of their normal production. That is a really good freaking job. Remember last year? Let’s compare last year to this year, shall we? Remember not allowing less than 49 against UTSA? Remember Zakhari Franklin in your sleep for several months after each game? Remember them just throwing it up to their receivers and them grabbing them carelessly like a toddler gathers dandelions from your yard? Yeah. They did a good job. No plays longer than 31 yards all freaking game. That’s a heck of a job.
Special Teams: D
I don’t give a crap about any of the rest of it. That onside kick was horrendous. Ok, I’ll back off. Ellard was great, the return game was good, and Narveson did his job making his extra points. Once again, though, Special Teams bites WKU right in the hindquarters, this time by a mistake that I hope doesn’t haunt the success of this season. I hope the coaches realize they shouldn’t do that again, although Tyson said he would live with his decisions. That was up there with the Mike Sanford 4th-and-1 from the 15 against Maine. I think it’s a notch below, because that ridiculous decision was so multi-layered that I could go on for hours about it. But this one wasn’t much better. You’ve got momentum and you’ve got an offense that you are handling fairly well considering your most recent outings against them, you have nearly an entire quarter to make up three points, your offense is clicking into gear, and you onside kick? If it works, you look brilliant and hoorah, but instead, not only do they score, but they literally score in two plays. At least they scored quickly? Come on. That was a disaster.
Coaching: D-
I mean, there was a lot of things that I could take issue with. TWO timeouts wasted, (almost literally) using only one running back, not involving tight ends, not finding ways to consistently move the ball, calling off the defensive pressure basically the whole game, and then that God-forsaken onside kick. Good lord.
Tyson Helton’s job is not in trouble, but putting strings of multiple games together like this will start the conversation if it happens much more this season. Or, for example, if Helton can’t win a close game. He is 0-7 in the last seven games decided by one possession or less. That undercurrent of frustration will bubble over to contempt if the Tops lose to Middle and head to a couple of battles with really good teams at home basically out of the conference race three games in. That will especially be the case if more silliness happens at the hands of the coaching staff.
Head Coaching: F
Sorry, Tyson. I love you, and I appreciate everything you’re doing here. But let’s keep it real. Not only did you have the onside kick, you had a weird offensive game plan, a kind of weird, overreactive defensive game plan, and you wasted two timeouts. The onside kick absolutely probably cost you the game. Wasting timeouts very possibly could have. I’m not remotely in panic mode on any level, but the Tyson Helton era finally has a few “Oh dear God” coaching moments. There weren’t many before the Troy game and there weren’t any that almost everyone agrees on. With the onside kick, there now is.
Offensive Coaching: D
This has rarely happened in the Tyson Helton era, but I am trying to understand where these coaches are coming from not specifically going after tight ends in the red zone or just trying to get them involved somehow. You have three good ones with different strengths! Then the running back situation…folks, I understand Robichaux is clearly the best back for WKU in terms of developed talent, but you cannot argue under any circumstances on any level of football that it is healthy to literally not use more than one running back. It’s one thing if the backups suck. Jakairi Moses averages six yards per carry. Davion Ervin-Poindexter is below average on the yardage, but he’s got the most rushing touchdowns on the team.
I’m a Titans fan, right? King Henry doesn’t get every carry. Even when his supporting cast sucks. Adrian Peterson. Emmitt Smith. Barry Sanders. Bobby Rainey. Whoever you want to name, there always has to be a second guy. Very, very rarely can you run one guy all game and look back and say, “That was as good as our running game could have been.” It’s too much statistical pressure! Robichaux had a heck of a game, getting nearly 100 yards. The rushing offense wasn’t nearly present enough to keep UTSA honest. They knew it was probably a short pass or a conventional run. When it wasn’t, WKU was generally successful. Imagine if you sprinkled in more running how much more the defense would be thinking about.
Defensive Coaching: B-
Tyson Summers continues to impress me. I don’t care about the yardage. I mean, I care, but what is the bigger picture? How about holding UTSA to 31? That’s a nice job. Now, my issue that keeps the defensive coaching from being rated higher is the ultra-conservativeness on the pass rush. This was almost an overreaction to the mobile QB. The Tops refused to send anybody at Frank Harris. He still had 61 yards rushing. However, overall, you kept Harris from 300 yards passing and the defense was plenty good enough to set the Tops up to win the game. Still good, sound, reasonable coaching, but I think the Tops should have stuck to themselves a little bit and brought some pressure.
Overall: C+
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that UTSA is an excellent football that played out of its ever-loving mind. I cannot believe how lucky they got in terms of looking like a great defense against a really good Topper offensive unit. That was not the team anyone had seen all year. And not only the defense steps up, but everybody gets healthy all of a sudden and the running game becomes a 200 yard+ backfield? Once again, UTSA gets demon-possessed, changes identities, and walks onto the field against the Tops and beats WKU in an unexpected way.
That being said, I think the individual players were great for the Tops. Besides the defensive line and the tight ends, I think every unit on the field did its job and contributed significantly. I frankly think the coaches didn’t do their best job, and I think that onside kick will hopefully stand forever as the single most outstanding “WTF?” moment of the Tyson Helton era.
This loss was a combination of some bad luck, some bad timing, and some bad management.
Moving forward, here’s what I’m looking for:
Special Teams to not screw up-Every game, WKU has done something that was not great on special teams. Just be solid in this area, boys and we’ll move on and quit harping on it.
Clean up the penalties-This last game was mainly false starts. Some games it’s been holdings and blocks in the back. Against Troy, it was personal fouls. But the Tops have just been atrocious not screwing themselves multiple times a game.
Go back to a stable of running backs-Robichaux is RB1. I agree. Does RB2 get a shot? RB3? RB4?
Involve the tight ends-You have at least two, if not three or four that are capable of producing something from this group. Having a tight end allows you to win lower scoring ball games, and it allows your offense to be more efficient on the scoreboard. Tight ends may not show up as the difference makers, but their roles in both phases of the offense really matter.
Get back to pressure football-It’s been several games since it felt like WKU’s D-Line dominated the game. Where is the chaos? It’s been even longer since WKU forced multiple turnovers. Both of these trends need to turn around quickly or the greatest advantage to WKU’s early season defense goes by the wayside.
Get back to prolific scoring-No one’s asking for 73, but there’s no reason WKU can’t put up 30 on most teams, and if the Tops really click, they should regularly climb in to the 40s and even 50s. WKU has screwed up significantly to average 27.5 points in its last two games offensively. WKU needed a field goal in each game to get to 30, anyway. The Tops are in a bit of a funk, but it wouldn’t take much to get back on track.