Hilltopper Basketball Notebook: Tops Up and Down, Battling a Lack of Post Depth, Injury, and Sickness Issues
WKU Basketball is sitting at 2-2 in CUSA and has a good overall record. With explosive big man Babacar Faye still out, WKU struggles to open up the top end of their potential night in and night out.
It’s not like WKU isn’t decent without some key players lost due to injury. WKU is 11-6, and has a winning record since Babacar Faye was injured. WKU is 5-3 since his injury, including the game in which he was injured on December 14 against Murray State. They were 6-3 before.
That’s not a huge drop-off, but it’s also still extremely obvious that WKU really will struggle if Faye never returns from injury.
Conference USA Basics
With that being said, they have a chance to repeat as CUSA champions, especially given the fact that Louisiana Tech looks extremely average, and Sam Houston, another favorite, continues to lose, WKU is right there with everyone else. The only team that’s undefeated in CUSA play through four games is New Mexico State, who frankly has looked like the best team in the conference since the turn of the year. Before that, though, they looked very average, going 7-6 in non-conference play.
It’s wide open in Conference USA, but a huge key for WKU is to position itself well. Don’t dig a huge hole in the standings and end up near the middle or the bottom and play good teams in the first and second rounds of the Conference USA Tournament. Don’t get in such a funk that you don’t truly believe you can win in March.
CUSA Notebook
Tops Dig Out of Huge Hole, Thedford Ridiculously Poised for a Freshman, Beat Liberty at Liberty 71-70
Julius Thedford is just a freshman, and he may not win Conference USA Freshman of the Year, but he is definitely a surefire All-Freshman selection and possibly working on the most legendary freshman season in WKU history. He already has several moments where he has stepped in a big offensive mess and banged a three, or drawn a foul, or made free throws late. He already has a handful of moments, and the Liberty game was his finest.
Thedford was great in this one, dropping in 18 points on 15 shots, shooting ten free throws, and grabbing five boards. He wasn’t perfect, but he had several moments late in the Liberty game that were just magnificent. The most incredible was his lone three (part of the greatness was he was 0-for-4 before this). Thedford, given the ball as the shot clock was beginning to wane in a tied game at 67-all, is 30 feet from the basket and steps up and NAILS it. Tops go on from there and survive (after nearly handing Liberty the game at the end), but Thedford goes down in history as an incredible, ballsy freshman that WKU fans are hoping will please-for-the-love-of-God stick around and become one of the Hilltopper greats.
As per usual, Don McHenry also stepped up in the Liberty game, not really doing much and then getting most of his 12 points late in the game, trading closing duties with the incredible freshman. WKU ultimately won despite being down as much as 16 with over 17 minutes remaining and 14 with 9:33 left. Somehow, they did it, and they did it with a 50 point second half performance. Amazingly, Liberty didn’t have a bad second half offensively, but they just absolutely could not stop the Tops’ onslaught offensively.
Tops Blasted at FIU, 85-66
For some reason, WKU can’t beat FIU in Miami. It’s inexplicable, other than maybe blaming the weird environment of an empty FIU arena. Maybe, but it’s just weird. Why is FIU so difficult for WKU year in and year out?
We don’t really know, but FIU played out of their minds, and they blasted the Tops from the opening tip. Once again, WKU got off to an awful start and couldn’t recover. There’s not much to say about this one, other than this performance shows how bad WKU can be without Babacar Faye: They can lose by way of a blowout to a sub-top 250 team.
Ray Harper Gets his Revenge, Beats WKU in a Grinding Game in Diddle, 73-67
Hate on Ray Harper if you want, but he has more championships at WKU than everyone else since 2009 combined. He has his obvious weaknesses, but his team definitely made WKU’s life extremely difficult. Despite not forcing two turnovers in either half, his team beat WKU by bludgeoning the Tops inside and dominating WKU on the boards 50-30. A weird statistical game, WKU committed two turnovers and lost. JSU conversely outrebounded an opponent by nearly double, shot significantly better, fouled about the same amount, and barely won.
Mason Nicholson, Jacksonville State’s center, was an absolute force. 20 points, 12 rebounds, and three blocks later, he bludgeoned the Tops down low time after time. And it wasn’t like WKU just handed him 15 dunks. Several of his baskets were one-on-one post ups, hook shots, and back-to-the-basket moves against smaller defenders.
On the WKU side, Enoch Kalambay was magnificent, dropping in 24 points. Julius Thedford was very good, scoring 17. Other than that, Don McHenry had eight points on 15 shots. Tyrone Marshall was invisible. Braxton Bayless was the lone Topper with a decent shooting night (50 percent), but he only took four shots and scored five points. The Tops got absolutely zero points from the center position.
This game was an odd juxtaposition, but it speaks to how well WKU is coached, and how undermanned they currently are. The Tops had a chance because they took care of the basketball, but they really struggled to be effective in several areas, and after this one, it felt pretty discouraging. Kennesaw State at home Saturday was an absolute must-win at this point.
Tops Dominate Kennesaw State from Start to Finish, Climb Back into the Middle of the Pack
You couldn’t dream up a better response, other than a 35 point win. But we’ll take a double digit win against a pretty good team after a deflating loss. And credit to the fans, by the way. They had every chance to not show up in the snow after a sucky loss to a former coach, and Topper fans showed up and created some kind of an atmosphere.
But the Tops showed up and announced that they will not just lie down and play dead. If the Tops had lost at Diddle, they would be staring down the barrel of a possible 1-6 start. From here, they head to Middle, then go to La Tech, and then head to Sam Houston. Being 2-2 puts WKU in a position to just need one win of the next three, and they’ll be in ok shape with three more home games left than anyone else.
In this one, Kennesaw State showed off some fabulous youth, including its surefire Freshman of the Year Adrian Wooley, who has had two games that he did not score ten points all season. He scored 27 in this one and has scored at least 20 in every CUSA game thus far. My goodness.
But fortunately, because of the scoreboard, his huge night had nothing to do with the outcome. Why? Because the Tops had four guys score 15 or more points, were only outrebounded by one, and held Kennesaw State to 33 percent shooting. A noteworthy thought: The Tops held a 10-20 point lead for nearly the entire game. They never stomped on Kennesaw State’s throat, but they also never allowed Kennesaw to really get back in the game. It was a remarkable show of defiance.
One really nice addition to the lineup was Jack Edelen. He didn’t score, but he ate up 15 really good minutes, produced, and took care of the ball. Jack had been out some due to sickness, but he was back this game, and the difference in the overall feel of the Tops was profound with him in the lineup.
Previewing MTSU
Middle’s Really Good
First of all, Middle will be favored, and it may not be expected to be that close. Maybe the opening spread will be at less than five, but don’t count on it. MTSU is considered 70 percent likely to win this game according to the interns at ESPN (shoutout to my RedOut partner Devin Stewart).
MTSU is 12-5, 3-1 in CUSA, and other than losing at Liberty by ten, they have looked solid lately. They hung within 20 at Tennessee, for example. That’s a quality result. They beat UAB early in the year. Like WKU, they beat Lipscomb. They are a borderline top 100 team, and with a win against WKU, they would definitely climb into the top 100.
The Blue Raiders hold opponents to 27 percent shooting from deep, and they outrebound opponents by five or so per game. They take care of the ball, and they can score. Jestin Porter is back for his 13th season, seemingly, and he’s got a big man that can get a double-double. Several players can lead the team in scoring depending on the flow of the game.
Babacar Faye Doubtful vs. MTSU, Probably Out Another Few Weeks
Babacar Faye went down with a grade 2 MCL sprain against Murray State on December 14. He is yet to return, and this week, Hank Plona told us the most detail we’ve heard since the injury. Baba will not need surgery, but an MCL sprain is significant enough that the injury could take multiple months to recover from.
Ultimately, Babacar is increasingly likely to redshirt and return for next year. Now…that may not happen. He seemingly could be back close to the beginning of February. But could he be in shape enough to lead WKU to a championship? If we knew that, I think Plona would play him if he was willing to go all-in on 2024-25. But at some point, the debate becomes whether you should just hang on for this year and be loaded next year with an extremely healthy and rested Babacar Faye and an absolutely freaking loaded roster once again.
It’s tempting to just redshirt him and be ready to be an at-large contender next year. We’ll see, but anticipate caution with Babacar Faye. And whether they say it or not, does this team have a great chance to win, even if Faye is back? They would obviously have a shot, but can WKU overcome a thin stable of big men? It’s really hard to win without productive size. They still won’t have it with Babacar Faye.
Summarizing WKU
Without Faye, the Tops go extremely small, with Leeroy Odiahi and Blaise Keita sprinkling in some minutes to add in some size at all for the Tops. Players like Enoch Kalambay and Tyrone Marshall, Jr. are extremely important in this version of the Tops, because they do bring some size, but they generally are going up against players bigger and taller than them. How do they handle that?
Don McHenry leads the Tops with nearly 17 points per game, while Julius Thedford follows with over 12, and Khristian Lander, when healthy, drops in over ten per contest. Kalambay and Tyrone Marshall are solid contributors, but neither is consistent. Since Faye’s injury, Kalambay has started several games and has been elite in several of them.
WKU plays at a ridiculous speed, sprinting up the court on both makes and misses. Averaging 78+ per game, they asphyxiate their opponents with constant pace.
WKU’s pace may not scare MTSU, who can score but can also defend and rebound.
Keys to Victory
Weather the Storm
This honestly feels like a tough matchup for the Tops. Sometimes, you just have to be as solid as you can and make good decisions and bide your time and hope you get hot. MTSU seems to answer a lot of the Tops’ major questions:
How do you keep up with WKU? They score nearly as many as WKU per game.
How does WKU find a way to get easy baskets? MTSU rebounds, defends, and can guard the perimeter.
Can Odiahi and Keita contribute enough to counteract the other team’s big men? MTSU has two centers that each average more rebounds and points than Odiahi have combined.
Just weather the storm, play tough, and let’s see if we can wiggle in somewhere and make some hay.
Odiahi, Keita, and Edelen
These would be the three biggest possible matchup liabilities for WKU. Everyone else is probably comparable to MTSU. If WKU’s big men can do a little something against Middle Saturday, we’re cooking with some grease, boys. On the other side of yard stick, the diminutive Jack Edelen may not fare well against the lengthy, athletic Blue Raiders. It is crucial that if Jack plays significant minutes that he is not a liability and finds a way to be productive. He usually gives good minutes, but an awful ten minutes from Jack Edelen could slam the door on an upset attempt in the glass house that Kermit built.
Tennessee Boys
Tyrone Marshall is a Nashville guy, and he heads a little closer to home in this one. Not only do I think he could possibly be a little more motivated playing in his home state against a team that he probably knew about growing up, but he’s also just a huge, massive X factor to this team in general. A preseason All-Conference selection, “Woo” has not lived up to the preseason expectations thus far. But the skill still is there. He’s 6’7”, can drive, and can shoot. This year, he’s gotten stuck in the midrange, shooting 15 foot fades instead of letting the offense flow and taking good set shots from the perimeter, or driving boldly around the edge of the defense and nosing his way to a layup from under the basket.
If he can be himself against Middle, that could really help neutralize the production of the really 2-3-4 guys from Middle.
Julius Thedford, also a kid from Tennessee, is another guy I have my eye on. When I see Middle, I see length and athleticism. Well, Thedford definitely has that, so maybe he can hang with MTSU and give the Blue Raiders a tough time. The thing with Thedford for me is not the shots he makes, but the decisions he makes. If Thedford can make good decisions (and hell yeah buck up and knock one in someone’s face a few times when it’s time), he becomes a seasoned young buck and not a fawn-legged freshman.
Jalen Jackson, Braxton Bayless, and Khristian Lander Need to Combine for 20 Points
I think of WKU’s team as a bunch of specialists. These are three specialist that have blaring weaknesses. Jackson is an incredible defender but doesn’t score much at all. Braxton Bayless can score a little more than Jackson and is a really good defender, but he is not usually very aggressive offensively and tends to be a little more passive despite being really efficient (nearly 50 percent from the field, 50 percent from deep). Lander is so streaky, and he does provide a more solid presence other than sometimes littering the stat sheet with too many misses from inside and outside the arc. I think a good number, whoever of the three it comes from, would be 20 points combined. If Lander gets 20 by himself, great. If Jackson and Bayless combine for 15 and Lander just scores a few, fine. But I’d like to see these three have a good offensive game.
Athleticism vs. Speed
WKU is clearly the speedier team, with a high pace level and a team that scores in the 80s more often than not. Middle can hang with some speed, but they are more geared to play solid, mid-paced basketball and allow their gifts and skills win the day. Jestin Porter is the lone player under 6’3” that gets significant minutes, and he is the star of the team. Everyone else is long and athletic. Porter absolutely plays bigger than 6’1” anyway. I had not clue he was that short.
Western, meanwhile, will run you to death. They will attack the rim ferociously and dare you to get in their way. They have a roster full of players that can find their own shot, draw fouls, and finish in traffic. Very few players on WKU’s team can’t handle the ball and drive to the basket. A testament to how well WKU is coached, the Tops run up and down the court, but they hardly turn the ball over (less than 12 turnovers per game). Can MTSU’s athleticism force WKU into a halfcourt offense? Can the Tops asphyxiate the Blue Raiders’ big bodies and force them into a style that doesn’t suit them?
Prediction
I won’t even give a prediction. I don’t freaking care. It’s time to beat down Middle. I don’t care how it looks. I don’t care how good they are. I don’t care how shorthanded either team is (Middle has a few injuries, too). I could care less.
It’s time to go down to enemy territory and come back with a winning conference record, and do it at the hand of the rival of the past two decades.
Middle sucks.
That is all.
Get a pulse, Topper fans. If you don’t go see the women, go down to Murfreesboro, and let’s send those ponies back home to their dilapidated dumpster dens with their tails between their legs.
GO TOPS! BEAT MIDDLE!
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GO TOPS!!!!