How WKU Basketball Can Make a Run in the C-USA Tournament

We all know it's an uphill battle, but what does WKU need to do put itself in position to sniff a conference championship title?

There are two kinds of people reading this article. Well, maybe three, I guess. One is the person genuinely trying to figure out how WKU could actually make a run in C-USA. The next person is going to think this is a complete waste of time, because “this team has given up”.

A third person, which is probably me in this scenario if I’m being honest, is the person who knows it’s theoretically possible for WKU to make an impact on the bracket and maybe even win the whole thing, but who is also distinctly aware that this team is wildly inconsistent and probably will lose one of its first two games. No matter who comes forward in the coming matchups against the Tops, they are likely to have beaten WKU at least once on the year, and any team beyond the first round matchup with UTEP is incredibly capable of winning the entire tournament.

The question is, “Can WKU do it?” Can they win four games in four days? WKU is the sixth most likely team to win the Conference USA Tournament according to Vegas. If you bet $100 on WKU, you would win $6500 if they won the C-USA Tournament. Basically, they’re saying WKU has a 1.5% chance or so to win C-USA. By comparison, FAU would earn you $160 on a $100 bet, meaning they’re considered nearly 40% likely to win the championship Saturday in Frisco.

It’s incredibly unlikely for WKU. However…

First of all, let me address the people that think this team has quit. Clearly, this team doesn’t have the best on-court chemistry. To argue against that point is ridiculous. For whatever reason, the talent and size doesn’t match the end-game results. However, I went back and watched all of the North Texas game (67-33 loss at UNT). It was excruciating to watch North Texas bomb from everywhere and watch WKU clank basketball after basketball off of every part of the backboard. It was awful. No question.

That being said, I still don’t see a team that has quit. They played hard, even though they were down a large amount. They played with effort. You try putting out your best down 36! I wouldn’t be diving on the floor, either. But WKU was playing hard enough to be in the game. They certainly weren’t zombies. They just couldn’t make a dad gum shot. Now, some of it was because of choices. Some of it was because Western could not figure out how to penetrate their tough man-to-man defense. North Texas plays arguably the best defense in the entire country, so there’s no shame in having trouble. The shame kind of lies in a historically anemic output.

They had Western dead to rights in terms of trying to get inside. They knew where Western was likely to go and they forced the Tops to do things they don’t like to do, shading defenders at the preferred hand for each WKU player. If an offensive player is not proficient at driving with his other hand, or distributing to a creative passing lane, it’s really difficult to get to the cup when the opponent seems to know everything you’re trying to do.

Despite the inability to penetrate, WKU still had opportunities to score, and they just couldn’t hit shots. A good 15 shots that were missed were good enough looks that they should have gone in close to half of the time. Also, Western was 5-of-14 from the free throw line, so say they just make 10-of-14 and make six more shots, the numbers wouldn’t have been so historically awful.

What I’m getting at is a) Western has not quit and b) that scoring margin was about as worse as it could possibly get. There’s no way Western plays UNT 100 times and scores 33 again.

So for the purposes of the article, let’s take “the team has quit” off of the table. If they’ve quit, they’re done. Duh. And maybe they’re struggling finding motivation in a frustrating year. Fine. But let’s assume they’re fully engaged and believing they can do it. Otherwise, it’s for naught, anyway.

So WKU draws UTEP and then FAU. What do they need to do to beat UTEP? What do they need to be the top seeded Owls? And what do they need to do to get further in the tournament if and when they beat FAU?

Keys to Beating UTEP

Understand the Mental side of the Equation

There are many layers to this, but the most simple layer to the mental game in a conference tournament is what you did to the opponent during the regular season. In this case, WKU swept UTEP. WKU should be confident, but they should also understand that UTEP is going to be vengeful, and that can sometimes fuel a team to exact revenge. It’s really hard to beat a team three times in a row.

But the other side to this is understanding the motivation overall. UTEP will be fired up to have a chance at a championship. It’s a new season. Nerves will be shaking bodies to the core. Adrenaline will flow. How does each team handle the adrenaline, the crash from that rush, a deficit, a large lead, etc.? That’s always step #1. Then we can get into strategical positioning. If a team can’t conquer the battle inside their ears, they’re toast.

Let UTEP be UTEP, but Don’t Let Them Turn into Somebody They are Not

UTEP is hardnosed, forces turnovers, and rebounds. That’s who they are. They do not shoot the ball well. They do not score in the 70s and 80s. So make them uncomfortable. Constrict their ability to shoot. Instead of allowing them to shoot, I would do the opposite. Constrict them so much from being able to shoot and force them to try to throw up shots over Jamarion Sharp. UTEP was allowed to shoot 50% from three in the matchup in El Paso. That’s a good way to invite a team that has no business being in the game to hang around and possibly win.

Play Like You’re the Underdog, but Be Confident Like a Favorite

Underdogs are scrappy. They get after it. Well, WKU has no business not being scrappy and going after everything, considering how many times they have struggled this year. No more standing around watching the other team dive out of bounds. If that ball is loose, go get it. But also, walk into that game knowing you’re going to win. Be confident. You’re the best player on that court. Your opponent doesn’t have a clue who you are. Show them who you are.

As Akot Goes, so Does WKU

If you look at WKU’s trajectory, it has often gone along with how Emmanuel Akot does. In games where Akot had a “bad game” (which has happened very often in conference play) or didn’t play due to injury, WKU is 6-10. In games where Akot was producing efficiently, not turning the ball over, and rebounding respectably, WKU was 12-4. Now that’s just how I broke it down. I looked at the combination of what he was doing, so it’s a bit arbitrary, but as Akot goes, pretty much so does Western.

Why?

Because Akot has the most untapped potential of anyone on this freaking team. You want to see why WKU hasn’t reached its potential? Akot not averaging 15-20 per game is a huge reason why. Akot could easily bust out every few games for something like 20 or 25. He just hasn’t done that this year. He has been more responsible with the ball, improving his assist-to-turnover, and he has improved his free throw shooting by 12%. He’s increased his rebounding slightly. That’s all fine and dandy, but he was an elite shooter last year at Boise State, and this year, he’s very pedestrian, shooting under 32 percent from three. He’s averaging the same amount of points as he ended up with last year, but last year, he had three games with at least 20 points. This season, he has one such game and in all other games has scored no more than 17. Western NEEDS this dude to play his balls off in Frisco. NEEDS him to. If they’re going to make any kind of run, Akot must be great.

Keys to Beating FAU

Handle the Physical Side of the Equation

This second game is much more about the physical. Against UTEP, was there any time that WKU was able to conserve energy? Did the game go into overtime? Did ten guys play instead of 7 or 8? Who played 30 minutes or more? Playing multiple days in a row, somebody is going to feel fatigue, even if it’s just slightly noticeable in Round 2. FAU will be fresh as a daisy, so you’re going to have to match their intensity with your lack of nerves. You’re going to have to gut out some plays in the second half if you’re asked to play significant minutes late vs. FAU. You’ve gotta suck it up and hope you don’t start breaking down physically late in game two.

Post up Akot

Akot didn’t get to play against FAU the first time around. He was massively lost, because FAU doesn’t play anyone besides Goldin over 6’8”. Akot is 6’8” and plays some kind of mixture between 1, 2, and 3 positions. He is very good in the lane, and he could really have an impact on the smallish FAU lineup.

Know That You can Do This

FAU is darn good. I’m not pretending like they’re not. But they’re not invincible, either. Other than Vladislav Goldin, Western is bigger than them. Western has some advantages on FAU. One is being experienced. WKU has players that have been there, that have had postseason success. Emmanuel Akot has been on the biggest stage college basketball has to offer. Western is the more experienced team and program. FAU’s program has zero expectations. They’re on Cloud 9 just because they’re looking like a favorite. That’s a big difference between actually being a champion, or simply having experience as a coach or player in a deep run in the conference or NCAA Tournament.

You’re Western Kentucky. You’re supposed to beat a program like Florida Atlantic every time you get a chance, regardless of your seed or your odds or your success thus far in the season. Take pride in those letters on your chest and represent WKU in the best way you can.

Athleticism vs. Quickness

WKU has some seriously pretty looking athletes. Everyone is either thick or tall or both. FAU has some, I call it “Florida quick” dudes out there. They are extremely quick and aggressive. They’re definitely a “Florida ball” type of team. They may not be the biggest, but they are gifted and they are bold. I believe FAU gave WKU the biggest issue in the quickness department of any team the Toppers faced this season. With Luke Frampton out, defensively, it makes it even tougher for WKU to keep up with FAU. Dontaie Allen is a great player and has been putting forth maximum effort since (in my opinion) late December, but he is not the quick-footed charge-drawing artisan that Luke Frampton was. Luke was a guy that could stay in front of defenders and made life difficult to get into the lane. Opposing offenses needed to know where he was, because he would come out of nowhere, take one on the nose, and force a turnover by taking said blow on the nose and drawing charges. However, Dontaie Allen is a higher end potential scorer, so to make up for the loss of Frampton, let’s see Dontaie Allen be an elite offensive player.

Don’t let Jamarion Get Sucked too Far Out of the Lane

Don’t lose sight of the issue here, Jamar. Vladislav Goldin is a paint presence. He is yet to ATTEMPT a three pointer in his college career. So when his 7’1” butt is out there, don’t get sucked too far out on the pick-and-roll. I understand you have responsibilities, but if FAU wants to make hay making mid-range jumpers with their center (or anyone for that matter), let them do it. Jamarion far too often gets sucked out on pick-and-rolls and and completely leave the back end open. Threaten the ball, but protect the goal. You can do both most of the time, big fella.

How to Win the Conference USA Tournament Championship

Conserve Energy

Scoff if you want. I’m still holding out hope. I think if you think strategically, winning four games in four days is tough. But over time, winning three games in three days is nearly as exhausting and is also not extremely likely. Yet someone is going to accomplish one of those two. One way to have enough physically in the tank on the third and fourth day in a row is spreading out minutes, and spreading out “intensity minutes”. Basically, if the game is close every game, the action is more intense because every bucket matters. However, if you’re up 15 the entire game and win by a decent margin, that’s a much less intense game than a game with 15 lead changes. There’s a lot less emotional capital spent if the game is routine. If WKU could find a way to get a game or two that’s not incredibly intense, that would go a long way.

That doesn’t mean you pull your starters once you’re up 12. What you do is play your bench from the beginning of the tournament. When you do get a sizable lead, expand it. Finish it off instead of having to bring your starters back in. Never allow the other team truly back in it, because if you let them have hope, that can be a dangerous proposition when a cornered opponent is desperate and sees an opening.

Stomp on the Pedal

In the tournament, there will be times where the team will want to all bend over and hurl. They will be at maximum output, and just need a possession to catch their breath. There’s nothing wrong with taking a possession to protect ourselves from overexertion. Within that, though, don’t just stand there and chuck it from 30. Run your offense. Have rhythm. Don’t take 18 seconds to call the play. Western tends to completely shut down the offense with five or so minutes to go. It works sometimes, but man, sometimes it’s just asking for late game headaches. The math doesn’t work to squander every possession with iso ball unless the game is truly out of reach if you burn 25 seconds on each possession moving forward. Then, carry on. Other teams will run their offense and just understand they are trying to run the clock if possible. They’ll take a quality shot at 8 seconds. Would you rather have a quality shot at around 10 seconds or have your iso guy maybe get the shot off and draw backboard?

Each Round is Different Mentally and Physically

I highlighted this some, but I have a theory about conference tournaments. In the first round, everybody is juiced up and fresh. That’s a more even (physically, mentally, emotionally) matchup and upsets aren’t as common, because no one has played a game yet. In the second round, one team has played and one team has not. That can either be a disaster for the lower seed, or it can be a problem for the higher seed because the other team is settled in. But you will see some shockers at this stage in the game. The semifinal round is extremely dangerous, because everyone who makes it is serious. Also, everyone is tired in the semis. It’s also much harder to get going emotionally for a semifinal game. Think about it: Semis are nearly as important as the final, but you will not have remotely the same emotion heading into a semifinal unless you find some kind of way to make it that way. The finals are your Super Bowl. The semis pale in comparison to what the finals means to you emotionally.

I think semis are way more about load and roster management than skill. I think the fresher teams usually win. The tiebreaker is skill, though. If both teams are flat, it’s going to come down to who’s able to pull out something special. In the finals, it goes back to who executes the game plan, who steps up in big moments, and who has the most guts on top of the most motivation. Adrenaline takes over, but how much adrenaline do you actually have in the tank? How much magic is there? The finals are way more about strategy, pushing the right buttons, and who wants it more than who is tired. You can be dead legged in the semis and wake up for the finals. And sometimes in the finals, one team will indeed run out of gas, and it will get ugly. It all depends on the mental fortitude of the two teams exactly how these scenarios play out.

Be More Intense Than Your Opponent

Sometimes it just comes down to who wants it more. Why is North Texas successful despite less talent? They are baptized in intensity from the moment they step onto campus for Grant McCasland. If they’re not committed, they’re not playing. When watching WKU, do you generally get the idea that they are playing their guts out and there is no way anyone could ever say WKU isn’t playing harder than the opponent? That’s impossible to measure, but intensity, unity, and laser focus goes a long way in sports when the teams are competitive with each other. Sometimes that’s the factor that everyone looks back at in hindsight, saying a certain team was a “team of destiny” or there was “something special” about the team.

No Excuses

Despite what all has happened this season, this is Western Kentucky Basketball. We don’t do losing here. I know that’s cliche or whatever, and it’s an odd thing to say considering there are 15 examples to the contrary, but there’s a certain swagger that past Western teams have always had. Other fan bases have called it “arrogant” that Western fans feel this way. Feel that way, then. But that’s how WKU should carry itself. We’re not always going to win every championship. It’s not an unrealistic expectation. But when you’re presented with your circumstance, do you maximize it? WKU is an 8 seed. Will WKU go at least a step further than expected and make the semis? Could WKU be the program that can rise above whatever has happened thus far and snag a championship in the least likely scenario? That would be a legendary feat.

It’s this type of mentality that WKU players should have. Frankly, it’s the type of mentality that every team should have. It gives you this blind confidence that no matter what, if we’re going out, we’re going kicking and screaming. When we were in pep band, we walked in not worried about tuning our instruments, but going in trying to help our team win a championship. It was a mentality. I hope our teams in all sports have that mentality. I think frankly, that has been lost. WKU is a great athletics program. There is a lot of history in just about every sport. This might sound like weird, fanatical craziness, but walking in armed with blind confidence that it’s going to work out because you’re you and you don’t take no for an answer is a great way to walk into a desperate situation.

Think of the Roman army. The knew they were winning. One way or another, whatever happened, they were coming out on top. Think of American troops. We expect to win whenever we fight. We don’t tolerate losing. I think if WKU is going to overcome all of the disadvantages that have come from injuries, coach being sick, losing Luke Frampton, struggling with identity, and an inability to score on a night in and night out basis, they’re going to have to temporarily take a mentality change and be possessed by determined WKU Red demons.

Prediction

I think the prediction is obvious for WKU Basketball. UTEP is a very winnable basketball game Wednesday afternoon. The Miners are 3-10 away from their home arena this season, but they were 11-7 at home. WKU is obviously better at home, but not that much better. I think it’s pretty obvious to pick WKU to win that one. If they don’t…my goodness. I hope Rick Stansbury is exploring his future career options. We all know WKU should beat UTEP.

FAU is a completely different animal. The Owls were also excellent at home, going undefeated. Their three losses came away from from “The Barn” or whatever they call that tiny arena. “The Nest”? Whatever. They don’t have that to fall back on, so it’s much more of an even proposition for everyone in terms of playing at a neutral site. Not that this makes a massive difference, but FAU will probably not travel a ton of fans, and I do believe most fans will cheer against them if they have any kind of rooting interest and the game gets close. So I believe they will probably play in a generally “road game” type of environment most of the tournament.

Now, the questions are, “Does any of that matter?” and “Can WKU pull together enough to upset a really good team?” Also, could WKU catch FAU nervous or off-guard and pull a fast one on them? MTSU had several times under Kermit Davis where they would inexplicably lay an egg as the stone cold favorite. It’s not unprecedented for a 1 seed to lose to an 8 in conference tournaments. Sometimes the 8 seed has had to battle, while the 1 has been cruising since mid-February. Occasionally the 8 seed wins the whole tournament.

In this case, I think FAU is pretty darn focused. They did struggle at La Tech, having to come from behind. However, before that, they blasted Rice by 29, beat UTEP by 26, beat UTSA by 40. And yes, they had two losses in early to mid-February. Interestingly, those two losses were on five days’ rest, something they will be doing when they play WKU or UTEP Thursday.

Sometimes, a top seed will show signs of cracking. I don’t see much of that. For example, UAB and North Texas are playing great, as well. It feels to me like one of these three teams (FAU, UNT, UAB) will win C-USA. Charlotte and MTSU have lost two games in a row but face each other. One of them will climb out of a funk, only likely to play FAU to get to a championship. I’m sure they would be utterly thrilled to see WKU instead of FAU! Rice, FAU, FIU, UTEP, and UTSA are all flawed and not peaking. We know WKU is flawed, as well.

So I predict WKU beats UTEP. I’m not even going to comment how, because I just don’t really care. I hope it’s by a big margin. That would be nice and would set them up better than going to triple overtime or something. But I think the Tops will fall, as they should, to FAU. And my gut says it may not even be close this time. We’ll see. I do hope Western fans tune in. You might as well get on board and cheer on the Tops for the next couple of days. Then when the ship crashes into the shoreline, the plane crashes into the hillside, or however you want to frame it in your mind, then you know what happened and you can judge things for yourself.

And heck, maybe they’ll just prove us all wrong and make a run at the Conference USA Championship.