WKU Basketball: Keys To Victory Against FAU and FIU

Western Kentucky Men’s Basketball is on a roll. Although they have had moments of terrible basketball, they have won five in a row and…

Western Kentucky Men’s Basketball is on a roll. Although they have had moments of terrible basketball, they have won five in a row and seven of eight in conference play.

Heading to south Florida for the rest of the week will be a great test to the fortitude of the Tops. Those two gyms are difficult to play in, partly because generally no one shows up.

But unlike most years, both teams are showing potential as contenders. FAU seems to be more of a middling team, but they pose and incredibly balanced attack. FIU has some really efficient players with insane length. Perhaps FIU will pose the biggest match-up threat to WKU, but both of these opponents loom dangerous.

If WKU cannot get their slow starts fixed, surely one of these games against decent to good opponents will bite them.

So what are the Keys to Victory Thursday and Saturday?

Keys to Beat FAU

Deal with the Home Mojo

FAU is 10–2 at home, while 2–7 away. Unfortunately for WKU, the Tops get the Owls in their home nest. FAU averages less than 1100 fans per game, so clearly it must be the thundering atmosphere that propels the Owls forward. In all seriousness, for whatever reason, the Owls are almost literally five times better at home than on the road. That tends to be the case to some degree. How does WKU deal with the hometown rolls, calls, and atmosphere? If Western can shake that off, you have to like their chances.

Take Care of the Basketball

FAU forces about 15 turnovers per game on its opponents, a slightly above average number. More importantly, FAU takes care of the ball, only turning it over about 15 times per game. FAU’s top four scorers each steal roughly once a game, so watch for the Owls to get those “live ball turnovers” Rick Stansbury dreads. Conversely, WKU has been great of late at not turning the ball over. They have had several games near single digits in turnovers. Can WKU withstand the attacking nature of FAU?

Withstand the Balance

FAU wins with different people on different nights. The Owls’ top ten players see 15 minutes or more in action when healthy and available. Another two have played in at least 15 games, so FAU really does share the wealth when it comes to minutes. Only two guys (Cornelius Taylor and Jailyn Ingram) average in double figures, but six players have at least 100 points on the season.

Pick Up the Pace

FAU scores barely into the 70s per game. Western Kentucky drives the pace into the upper 70s, and its opponents score above 70. Stylistically, somebody has to play their game to some degree. FAU is not incapable of scoring. However, when they allow 70 points, they are 5–6. When holding opponents under 70, they are 7–3. Surely, WKU will know this and try to drive the pace.

Keep Your Momentum and Don’t Let Them Create Any

WKU is red hot. They are producing comeback victories, winning with margin, and have lost once this entire month. FAU has lost four of five and its only win was at home in overtime against arguably the worst team in the league, MTSU. WKU needs to come in focused and hit FAU in the mouth. A team struggling will usually quickly get discouraged if you set the tone early. Give them confidence and they’ll be starving to finish you.

Box Out

FAU wins the battle on the boards by nearly three per game. WKU loses the boards by 1.5 per game. This is a bad recipe for a team like FAU to come in and dominate the Tops in a certain area. WKU often gets dominated here without Charles Bassey. This FAU team gang rebounds, with no one cleaning the boards with dominance (no more than 4.5 rpg). That means Western needs to be fundamentally sound and take advantage of positioning. They may not win the battle of the boards, but they may hang close. That’s all they need to beat FAU. Don’t get dominated on the boards.

Prediction

I like this match-up for the Tops. First of all, this FAU team likes a little slower pace. They also do not shoot well, and they give up 44 percent shooting per night. WKU is a great shooting team and can explode on a porous defense. Without a player that scores more than 12.5 points per game, can FAU match it when a couple of WKU weapons get hot? FAU needs an ugly game, and generally Western doesn’t provide one. They generally make their shots, make their free throws, and keep their opponents from making threes and taking free throws. I’ve got WKU in control most of the game. They may start slow, but they’ll win by 12. 79–67 WKU.

Keys to Victory Against FIU

Double Team Osa Osa Like He’s Joey Bosa

Osasumwen Osaghae is a beast. This guy shoots 68 percent from the floor, averages 13, grabs eight boards, blocks more than four balls a game, and even hits 74 percent from the line. With all of that production, he still is yet to foul out of a game. This is the best player in C-USA you’ve never heard of. This guy is a monster and scares the crap out of me. What does WKU not do well against? Size. This guy is dominant. If he was even more aggressive, he’d probably be all the more dangerous.

Make Devon Andrews a Volume Shooter

This guy averages a point more than any Topper, so he is quite a good scorer. He does only shoot 43 percent from the field and only 33 percent from three. He draws nearly as many fouls as WKU’s Hollingsworth (101 to 89 free throws), so that gives you an idea of what a good all-around player this guy is. If WKU can make him shoot jump shots, that is a win for the Tops. Shooting only 43 percent from the field tells you he has some bad shooting games. Let him shoot. I’m ok with that. If he drives to the hole, lays it in and gets fouled, that’s a disaster.

Somebody has to Rebound

How do I put this? Both teams suck at rebounding. Osasumwen Osaghae is great, but other than that, FIU does not rebound well. He and Andrews are nearly half of their rebounds. If WKU could take advantage of a soft team on the boards, this could be a path to victory on the road. If I’m Rick Stansbury, this is something I can actually do well that I never do. I would crash the boards and try to suffocate their opportunities.

Who is the Better Fast Paced Team?

FIU likes to play fast, too. They actually score more per game and give up the same scoring margin as the Tops. They steal the ball nearly twice as much as WKU, but the Tops take much better care of the ball. FIU likes chaos, and WKU’s pressure is much more controlled. Both teams shoot at least 46 percent from the floor. FIU holds its opponents around 40 percent, while Western gives up over 43. One huge difference between FIU and WKU is WKU’s ability to…

Draw Fouls

Western draws nearly twice as many fouls as its opponents entice them. On top of that impressive figure, WKU makes nearly 80 percent from the foul line. What does that say to me? On Hollingsworth! On Savage! On Anderson! On Carson Williams! Draw fouls and go to the line at will. Make this game ugly and make it your style of fast instead of letting FIU run-and-gun, create live ball turnovers, and wreak havoc in a different way. WKU needs to exsanguinate FIU with little punches and little advantages. This is an interesting match-up for WKU.

Prediction

I think this is where WKU finally stumbles for the second time in conference play. This does not feel like a good match-up. FIU has an awesome big man that is incredibly efficient. FIU plays the same style and pace as WKU but forces more turnovers and plays better half court defense. WKU might be able to win the battle of the boards, which would be huge for the Tops, but they also need to draw tons of fouls and have some bounces go their way, or I think FIU wins this game at home. I’ve got FIU 76-WKU 71.