WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against the Mean Green

How does WKU win the 2022 homecoming game against North Texas?

Isn’t it safe to say both North Texas and Western Kentucky have exceeded expectations so far this season?

Western Kentucky would probably have been framed by most as a conference dark horse, or at best a secondary contender to the like of UAB and UTSA. FAU was strongly considered fairly even with WKU, and that has proven to be most likely false one the end of the season. With Bailey Zappe (and other historically great players on all sides of the ball) leaving, it just stood to reason Western would come back to Earth a little bit.

Behind the four programs already mentioned in the preseason rankings sat North Texas, a humble fifth place. Actually, fifth would really be an improvement for North Texas and was not necessarily an insult. North Texas has been in the doldrums for years, not really competing at the overall conference level maybe once every five years or so when a senior quarterback meshed with a good supporting cast.

This season, they are firmly in the conversation with a few games left to play.

Now, I do think they have overachieved, and that should mean credit goes to Seth Littrell and the Mean Green coaching staff. Given the fact that the Mean Green give up a good amount of points and a good amount of yardage through the air and on the ground and the fact that the “Eagle” offense is quite prolific, it kind of rings as a similar makeup to WKU last season.

WKU had a great offense, a poor defense with a few strengths, and good special teams. North Texas may not be on the same level as the Bailey Zappe-led Toppers, but UNT is plenty capable on offense, and unlike WKU, North Texas can really run the football. The question is, “Can they stop anyone defensively?”

WKU’s 2022 version is much more well-rounded, and of late, not as explosive offensively. The defense has carried the Tops in a few games despite overall discipline issues, special teams concerns, and inefficiency offensively.

Both teams have issues coming in, so how does WKU get its act together enough to take a stranglehold on second place in C-USA over a very competent UNT squad?

Keys to Victory

Time to Explode

Honestly, WKU’s offense has been bogged down by good defense for a month. Even UTSA got in on the act with its far and away best defensive performance of the season. With the massive exception of FIU (who by the way now has two wins in C-USA play and is much improved), WKU’s offense hasn’t scored 30 points in any other game in October. If WKU’s offense could just get back to normal, it would be very difficult to see the Tops deeply struggle against a North Texas team that should be able to be slowed by this excellent WKU defense.

Protect the Edge Offensively

There are plenty of reasons for this point, but one would be North Texas has a really good D-Line that could singlehandedly wreck a few Topper drives. If that happens, the Tops would be in a dog fight. That’s what UNT did against UTSA. However, I firmly believe if UNT can’t get pressure, WKU picks the green-clad opponent apart and wins easily. But UNT’s one major strength defensively is getting pressure in the backfield.

In addition to protecting the edge for Austin Reed, what about whatever mixture of running backs WKU puts out there today? If WKU can continue its most recent revelation with two guys producing 80 or more yards, things are looking up! If Western could bust a few runs off tackle at will, that would be very disheartening.

Get the Tight Ends Five Catches

I know it’s the Air Raid, but the tight ends catch the ball, too. You have three excellent ones that are proven commodities. Use them! That’s all I ask. Show me five catches for tight ends, and I’ll show you a WKU offense that seemed to take advantage of most of its opportunities.

L.T. “Smith” Sanders Needs the Ball

L.T. Sanders, true freshman running back for WKU, has had two opportunities this season to show staff (and certainly fans) that he is a for real talent that could be the next great WKU running back. Kye Robichaux is almost certainly not 100%. Davion Ervin-Poindexter had a nice game against UAB. But L.T. Sanders in some ways singlehandedly broke UAB’s will defensively. In a game no one could move the ball consistently, LT Sanders averaged 75% of a first down every time he touched the ball. It’s time to trust the freshman some more. If Kye can’t go, start him. If Kye can, he’s second off the bench and should get ten or more touches. Let the kid play!

Cut Out the Stupid Stuff

It’s business time. This is in my opinion the most important game of the year. Bowl eligibility, conference championship positioning, (virtually) eliminating another contender, Homecoming, etc. Things need to jell. Well, WKU has had trouble showing its true potential this year because of just kind of screwing up stupid things: Special Teams gaffs, turnovers, and penalties. WKU is outside of the top 100 in penalties. That’s doodoo, bruh. WKU turns the ball over a little much for an elite team. Special Teams has been a strength two weeks in a row, and wouldn’t you know it? Western has won two games in a row! It’s time to reign it all in, stop the personal fouls and offensive PIs, the false starts and the offsides. If you get called because you’re playing hard, that’s one thing. If it’s because you have no self-control, that’s another thing entirely.

Prediction

I think this game is cut and dried. If WKU shows up offensively, night night North Tejas. If the Tops struggle on either side of the ball, I could see a closer battle.

When looking for an upset bid, a team needs something they can hang that their hat on as an advantage and press that advantage. UNT’s main attributes are the defensive line making explosive plays and running the ball offensively.

So if you’re WKU, your offensive line has been incredible. Your run defense has been very good and at times elite. So do what you do and you should be in good shape. Stop the run; protect the quarterback. That’s Football 101. I think UNT has too many things they need to do to overcome WKU’s relative excellence (or lack of inferiority, more like) in all areas.

UNT needs to force turnovers. They don’t normally do that. UNT needs to stop the pass. They don’t normally do that. They need to stop WKU on third down and force field goals in the red zone. They don’t normally do that, either. All of the the telltale signs that you might look for in an upset are not tendencies of the Mean Green.

I’m not saying they can’t win, because they almost beat UTSA last week. What really happened statistically last week? UTSA dominated everything but the scoreboard.

So although UNT had a chance, the only way they had a chance was fighting and clawing and they still lost. That’s the kind of game they need to create again. I believe WKU will be prettier statistically, but can UNT junk it up enough to scrape out a W? We’ll see.

As I’ve hinted at, I’ve got WKU winning big. No disrespect to UNT, but look at the stats and film for yourself. I’ve got Western Kentucky 45-North Texas 24.