WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. UAB

What WKU needs to do extinguish the Blazers.

The Tops are back in the win column, and as we prepare for a big battle against UAB, it’s nice to know WKU has shaken off two losses in a row to do what it needed to do against MTSU.

After a 3-1 start, Western Kentucky was starting to look like one of the real surprise teams of college football. However, with two losses against quality opponents, WKU dropped quickly from the elite of the G5 and stone cold conference favorite to among the second-favorites amidst the UAB’s and North Texas’s of the world.

Funnily enough, WKU plays both of those teams the next two weeks. Both seem quite good, and with UAB coming to town, WKU better sharpen up some things they have been struggling with and pull off their first quality win of the season.

Think about it. WKU’s wins have been against Austin Peay, Hawaii, FIU and Middle Tennessee. Although Middle had a moment in the sun beating a ranked ACC opponent, the Blue Raiders are already 0-3 in C-USA and completely out of the conference race. WKU’s three losses? A Big Ten team that will likely have two B1G wins by week’s end, a Sun Belt team that is now leading its division, and of course UTSA, Conference USA’s clear favorite to host and repeat as champion.

So whether you look at the standings or even look at this game as a “prove it” type of game, there’s a lot out there for WKU to get done this week. Beating UAB would be a big feather in the cap for solidifying conference standing, as well as giving WKU head coach Tyson Helton his first signature kind of “attaboy” win since Marshall last season.

Before that, you have to go back to the days of Ty Storey.

Helton has developed a concerning trend of (whether it’s on him or not) losing close games. Fortunately, they’re all usually against good opponents. However, he could use a nice nail-biter victory, and it would seem predictable that this game should be very close. Perhaps this will be the one to “right” any increasing list of “wrongs” outsiders may feel towards towards Tyson Helton.

So what does WKU need to do get it done in front of DJ Diesel and a hopefully rowdy, excited crowd on national TV Friday night?

The Keys to Victory

Prepare for a Slog

I’m not sure if it’s going to be low scoring, but it certainly could be. The over/under for the game is 58.5, which is really low for any Western game. But that means at a 1.5 margin, Vegas believe this game is played in the upper 20s. That is the complete and utter low end of performance for WKU (27 points) in the past two seasons. But UAB’s defense; people, they’re for real. They give up 17 points per game, don’t turn the ball over on offense, and run the ball with a star running back, and can pass the ball just competently enough to keep the offense balanced and keep running lanes open.

The point is this game could easily be a defensive tug of war, more like a traditional NFL game. You know how NFL games work: Two quality teams battle to get 300 yards of offense and the punters, kickers, and special teams in general sometimes can make the biggest difference. WKU has had a propensity this year to be somewhat undisciplined (penalties) and also a little less physical (i.e. Troy) than its opponent. Against Troy, it really felt like Troy wanted it more. I would hate to leave The Houch feeling like UAB won because “we just didn’t show up” mentally. Get ready for a real war. Everybody could be sore after this one. I hope the training room freezer doesn’t run out of ice, so to speak.

Hope to Have a Running Game, but Use It Regardless

Kye Robichaux is either back (“should be fine by the end of the week,” Helton said earlier this week) and hampered or in a very possible scenario, he’s out and Davion Ervin-Poindexter, Jakairi Moses, and LT Sanders (or whoever else) are going to have to produce something.

This is their “put up or shut up” game.

Robichaux has separated as the clear RB1, but this is a chance for each of them to play their role and show up and show out. Now, even if they’re struggling or UAB is just shutting them down because they’re very good, the Tops still need to run the ball. UAB gives up 143 yards per game on the ground, but only gives up 176 through the air. What does that mean? Maybe it means the D-Line is a possible opportunity to exploit, but it also means UAB absolutely has an ability to and focuses on keeping the air out of the ball defensively. They will allow some movement on the ground if an offense can run the ball. But through the air, God Bless on moving the ball.

Score When You Can and Don’t Be Afraid to Run Your Offense

Regardless of what UAB is doing, Tops, you have a really good offense that scores 40 points per game. If you do what you do, they lose. I understand UAB is very good, but ultimately, it’s about execution.

One thing WKU has done this year that they didn’t always do last year, the Tops start out throwing short and even establishing the run. That’s something a Middle Tennessee player literally said WKU was going to do. What did Western do? They did exactly what MTSU anticipated and Middle shut them down for a quarter.

It’s time to realize you are extremely predictable early. That’s not the WKU offense, either. The Jeff Brohm/Tyson Helton/Bailey Zappe offense is impossible to stop because no one knows what you’re going to do next. Make their heads spin. If WKU can get over 30, you have to feel very good about the chances.

Ultimately, take your opportunities, because it’s very unlikely UAB gives you much more than ten possessions offensively. Also, UAB’s defense has allowed no more than four red zone appearances all year. Can you buck that trend? Can you at least get four and capitalize? Can you score from outside the red zone via long field or long touchdown? That would be huge for the offense.

Turnovers

Duh. But both of these teams are near the top of the country (top 25) in turnover margin, so it really needs to be mentioned. Therefore, if there is a clear winning in turnovers, and also points off turnovers, that is a huge coup for whoever wins that battle. UAB has only allowed an amazing 14 points off of turnovers all year. If WKU could get a pick-six, how huge is that? Even driving down afterwards and getting points, or getting double digit points would be incredible. Even if there isn’t a “turnover”, per se, WKU often goes for it on fourth down. How does that work out? Where does it leave the opponent and do they take advantage of it? Watch for the obvious turnovers, like interceptions and fumbles. Where do they occur and how many points are erased off of the board because of it? Also, though, watch for turnovers on downs. WKU is generally not good offensively on third and fourth down. UAB generally is.

Bear Down

Helton declared the number one goal defensively is to stop the run. “They can beat you on the ground on its own,” he said this week.

This defensive approach is generally the WKU way. Since I was on The Hill, any defensive coach you ask, “What is the plan this week?” would be answered by, “Stop the run.” And that’s the way it probably should be.

UAB’s DeWayne McBride is leading the entire country in rushing at over 155 yards per game. That’s more than any of the WKU greats ever did, to put that in perspective. This guy is a freaking load. Then he has a backup that gets 60+ per game, and a QB that gets positive yardage himself. All told, UAB averages nearly 250 yards per game on the ground, and QB Dylan Hopkins is still good enough through the air.

An interesting tidbit: McBride has a stone cold ZERO receptions on the year. That could reveal an interesting way to play him defensively. Literally load up on him as a runner, and if the play is a definite pass, ignore him. What is he possibly going to do to you if they haven’t even thrown it at him all year? Now his counterpart catches the ball for 13 yards per game, so as a backup RB, that’s a respectable threat.

Bottom line, whatever your strategy is, load up and stop the run. Against a good running back, my guess is the Tops go with a “Bear” front, meaning five guys up front with at least three down linemen, if not four or even five. According to Tyson Summers, the Blazers like to run outside, so what better way to combat the outside run than put five guys spread out across the front of the formation? I think that makes sense to me and would be a reasonable response that WKU has gone to in the past against quality rushing attacks.

Prediction

The Tops are in for a real battle on Friday.

If you’re coming in to The Houch thinking WKU blows the opponent out if they play well, think again. It could happen, but I don’t see that happening. I think UAB is a fascinating matchup for WKU. This UAB team can run the ball like almost no one else in the country. WKU can stop the run. UAB is incredible stopping the pass. WKU passes with more volume than almost anyone in the country, and averages top 10 or better in every passing category. WKU’s defensive line is really good most games. UAB’s offensive line is helping its running back lead the country in average yards per game and only giving up a sack or two per game in the air. WKU’s defense is not great against the pass, and UAB’s passing offense is shockingly low for a balanced, non-triple option modern era college football team. Both teams have a suspect kicker, although WKU’s Brayden Narveson has been much better of late.

That is a lot of general matchups with weakness versus strength. So who blows up who where? That is the question for me.

Here’s what I think happens: I think both teams have a good back end defensively. I think both teams are deep defensively in general. I think offensively, UAB has way more of an ability on the ground, and WKU has way more general ability through the air.

Up front is where the biggest difference is.

Now, caution: I felt this way against Troy and we all saw what happened there.

However, I think WKU’s D-line is a strength on strength matchup against UAB’s offensive line. If WKU can disrupt up front and make the running game difficult for UAB, I think that is a huge indicator of the outcome. If they are completely neutralized, UAB wins most of the time. WKU’s offensive line is generally great, but again against Troy, they were completely neutralized and gave up five sacks. UAB’s front is good, and they are deep, but no one player poses a massive threat. No one has more than 2.5 sacks on the year, and no one has more than 3.5 tackles-for-loss.

So what tells me in general is there isn’t a superstar defensive lineman that is dominating, and it tells me that maybe WKU could have time to sit back and pick apart this very good UAB secondary. Perhaps the Tops could also run the ball, even if Kye Robichaux is not 100 percent. Use Austin Reed on the QB draw and “Reed Option”. I haven’t mentioned this, but it’s certainly an ongoing concern that could pay massive dividends in this particular matchup, but use the tight ends, please! Using them on short and intermediate routes, especially early, could be a huge break in tendency and force UAB to rethink how they approach the rest of the game. The tight ends ultimately opened things up against Middle, who was actually doing a good job against WKU for a quarter. Things opened up and WKU settled in, but there’s a blueprint for keeping WKU slow early.

Does the WKU staff realize that every game, they don’t come out throwing the ball down the field?

Maybe Austin Reed feels like he needs a few quick throws to ease into the game. That’s cool, but not once has WKU come out first play and done much other than run it or throw a screen. What if WKU came out and threw a bomb first play? That would be a complete shocker to anyone who has watched WKU film this year. Even last year, it was the same tendency, although there was more propensity to go deep last season. I predict UAB will be loaded up near the line of scrimmage for the first five plays. Why not take a shot early? They will be forced to respect you deep early. If you throw an interception, you know what? Good job. You’ll have them thinking you’re pulling out all the stops all game with that one pass. They might win that battle, but they might overthink the war.

Regardless, I think WKU’s ability up front and UAB’s inability (or lack of desire to throw) through the air is going to ultimately mean WKU’s offense is too much. It’s really difficult to see WKU’s offense actually getting shut down. UAB could slow the Tops down and make life difficult, but can UAB score enough to keep up with WKU if this becomes a non-slugfest? If it does become a defensive battle, I still believe WKU can hang in there, and eventually the offense will bust a few plays and get a few scores. Obviously if this game is played in the teens, UAB has a much better shot. However, I think if it gets into the 20s and certainly 30s, WKU has the edge.

First to 30, baby!

I do think this will be a weird one, with a lot of field goals and strange scores that you wonder how they got there.

So I’m gonna say WKU is able to move the ball, makes some chunk plays, but does have to settle for several field goals. I do think the offense gets off the schneid and moves the ball. Let’s say WKU scores seven times, but they kick four field goals. UAB has trouble getting the ball into the red zone due to relying on the run, but once they get there, they’ll finish it off most of the time. They get a two point conversion on one of their three touchdowns and kick a field goal.

Let’s go WKU 33-UAB 25 in a weird, very physical battle.