Keys to Victory at MTSU

What WKU needs to do to get it done and tilt 100 Miles of Hate to Big Red for the first time since the 1980s.

Western Kentucky Football has perhaps backpedaled a little bit. Stagnated. Gotten in a funk, maybe. You decide the analogy. But the season is still young, the Tops are still in complete and utter control of their destiny in terms of the conference race, and WKU has a really good football team if they can get out of their own way.

After a 3-1 start that electrified the fan base, WKU (3-3, 1-1 C-USA) has faced two good opponents and lost to each of them by a possession. It’s been slightly deflating. In both games, WKU had its opportunities, but its offense was given limited possessions while being forced to march the full length of the field. Ultimately, the Tops fell to two really good teams.

WKU’s opponent, the MTSU Blue Raiders (3-3, 0-2 C-USA), have a very similar story. After making national news by beating Miami (FL), MTSU sat at 3-1 and looked like they would all of a sudden contend for a C-USA title. Perhaps they should replace UAB or North Texas or UTSA as one of the true contenders. At the time, WKU was one of the few C-USA teams not under fire and was actually rising into contention talks themselves. Well, the past two weeks, Middle faced UTSA and UAB in consecutive weeks and got trounced by at least 15 in each contest. The UTSA score line looked close, but the Blue Raiders were down big in that one before Frank Harris gave the Blue Raiders three interceptions in four passes.

So the question is, can either team show up and play well? If they don’t, who wins and what needs to be done to survive?

If WKU is firing on all cylinders, I think we all believe the Tops would be the better, more talented, and more well-rounded team on paper. I believe MTSU would probably agree if they were being honest. But with their recent struggles, let’s assume the Tops are not playing their best and they need to win a few keys to victory. If it’s a blowout, these keys don’t matter as much. But if it’s a close game, these could very well decide the outcome.

Keys to Victory

Stop Screwing Up

No one is asking for perfection but for the sake of all things holy (like hating your bitter rival), can we just get through a game and feel like we didn’t do something stupid? Tyson Helton’s staples have generally been a few things: Good special teams, clean football, and pretty good decision making. In 2022, special teams is yet to have a perfect or even really good game. Western is yet to have under 50 yards in penalties in a single game, is yet to have a single game without a false start, and is yet to have a game where certain penalties didn’t really make life difficult. I don’t ever really remember questioning Tyson Helton so much as I have this year. He’s been put in some tough spots, but his onside kick choice down three with momentum was ballsy at best. I think I get it after hearing him explain it, but I think the reasoning was incorrect, the feel of the game was not conducive to that decision, and he had a preconceived notion that he “knew” they were going to need to steal a possession against UTSA. Your defense has been excellent all night! Why not rely on the defense in crunch time and keep scoring on offense?

Do it for the Goode Guys

OT Mark Goode is out and possibly out for the season. That’s not officially official that we have heard, but it’s pretty much known and assumed. WKU’s offensive line has been stellar, but Mark Goode has kept it pretty clean on the outside all season. He was a huge part of a really good O-Line. WKU has only allowed eight sacks in six games, five of which came against Troy. Throw out the Troy game and WKU would lead the nation in sacks surrendered in the nation. Western’s offensive line is currently on pace to average less sacks per game than last year’s historically great offensive line. Here’s the problem on the other side of the ball: Middle is good up front, forcing lots of sacks by multiple people. They also scheme up great ways to create confusion. Rick Stockstill may receive the butt of some jokes and some ire in Murfreesboro, but he know what he’s doing. Having new, less experienced linemen with less chemistry than the original group may prove difficult. Watch the trenches. Middle has some players down there.

Get Back to Chaotic Defensive Football

WKU’s defense swarmed everywhere the first few games. It seemed almost every down, the Tops were in the backfield causing a quarterback to take another look before making a decision, then pummeling him (legally). Lately, WKU hasn’t been forcing turnovers or sacking the quarterback (without a penalty). They’re doing a good job keeping offenses from explosive plays and not scoring a ton, but the Tops really need pressure and turnovers to win with their style of play. The Tysons (Summers and Helton) both talked about their lack of opportunity at UTSA. The Tops only had ten drives, which was why Helton felt the pressure to go for an onside kick.

Running Back By Committee: Just Do It

Can I be more clear? Kye Robichaux has earned the starting job, but since being designated as such, Davion Ervin-Poindexter has been used less and less. Jakairi Moses hasn’t touched the ball in a couple of games. This is just not sound football. Kye Robichaux may be capable of running for 150, but how often will he actually do that? It’s much more likely that a few guys could get there combined instead of asking for one back to do something like that. It’s just sensible football and it was your best football when you were using them in combination. Hey may turn in to Antonio Andrews or Bobby Rainey within the next year or two, but for now, he’s not developed enough to be the one feature back with no legitimate backup.

Bring the Hate and Realize It’s Getting Late

There’s nothing like a good ole rivalry to get the blood flowing. If WKU isn’t motivated after two straight losses and basically needing this one to get back on track, I’m not sure what more of a wakeup call they need. WKU was really awake for UTSA, but they seemed kind of asleep against Troy. I wouldn’t dare say a certain team just doesn’t have “it”, but this team has been the most frustrating I can remember in recent memory. They absolutely screw up things that can be fixed. But they also continue making the same mistakes. Penalties. Untimely turnovers. Special Teams. WKU should be 6-0, y’all. Like they really should be. Not could be. They should be. It’s time to wake up, get upset and focused, and let’s pile drive through the rest of this schedule and go win a ring. If you don’t get up for Middle, get out.

Prediction

I know I’ve spent this whole time really breaking it down and being serious about this game. Don’t get me wrong, here. Middle is plenty dangerous. This could easily be a one score game. This could easily go to OT. History says take the under on the -8 for WKU, because this game is well more than 50% likely to be a final score eight points and under.

However, it’s Middle. Marshall was a cute rivalry and all and they made your blood boil, but Marshall to me was so much about a nice respect level. You play them, you drink your moonshine out the back of the tailgate on the way out and talk to them and they wish you luck on your drive home, wish ‘em luck on finding some more coal this week, and roll on back to Bowling Green.

When I think of Middle, I think of hate. I think of the grown 50 year old man having his 12-year-old baseball team flip WKU fans off at the basketball game in 2009. I think of middle-aged men making sex jokes about our trainers and our quarterbacks. I remember getting stuff thrown at us on the sidelines. I remember the attempted move to the MAC and them literally just blocking it just because.

You know what else I remember? A lot of winning. A lot of Middle not winning. I look at Rick Stockstill’s record and laugh. 107-104, really? He’s been there 17 years and he’s getting contract extensions left and right and he’s a .500 coach? Oh Middle…that is SO you. His contract is legendarily generous, and whoever wrote it should be fired.

So that being said, yeah it could be close. Yeah this final score ain’t happening. I could care less.

I’m calling my shot, you toothless Tennesseans.

Western Kentucky 74, Middle Tennessee 0.

Even FIU can hold a candle to you. Go kiss your sister and make it all better.