WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory This Week

What does WKU need to do get to .500 in C-USA play by the end of the week??

Western Kentucky is officially in a slump. There’s no question at this point. Four straight games with an eight point lead or more and all of them were lost, only one of which you actually had a chance at the end? Yeah that’s brutal.

However, hope springs eternal. I will say this, though: Western better take some miracle juice Thursday morning, because North Texas is coming to town. Not only are they a definitively better team than WKU right now, they are also definitively better coached.

What does Western have massively in its favor? Size and talent.

Saturday, WKU hops on the plane and goes to UTSA, a team that frankly should end up being WKU’s first conference win if they don’t already have it by beating North Texas.

But it’s a road game in a high school gym with presumably not much atmosphere, so how do you handle that situation, along with the lingering thought that you should probably beat the team that you should probably be deeply respecting considering your current situation.

So what does WKU need to do get it done Thursday and Saturday?

Keys vs. UNT

Just hold some kind of candle to Grant McCasland

What makes UNT great? Coaching. What makes WKU not great? Coaching. WKU has all the talent in the world and hasn’t put it together in seven years. UNT has Grant McCasland, who is in my opinion one of the young superstars of college basketball. His style may not be thrilling, but his teams absolutely will not allow 70 points against anyone, and they will not beat themselves. If you’re going to beat North Texas, you have to earn it, and it’s usually by playing as hard as they do and hitting a few tough shots and hoping they go ice cold at some point. Otherwise, you’re not beating them.

Use Your Size and Athleticism to Your Advantage

I’m not saying UNT is inferior, but on paper, WKU should kill them. UNT has some nice pieces and players that can play, especially defensively. But Western far and away has the longer, more athletic team and therefore should wipe the floor with North Texas. Will they? I will be ten kinds of gobsmacked if Western Kentucky slaughters North Texas. I will be pleasantly surprised if WKU actually wins. Regardless of how good UNT is, however this manifests, WKU should dominate physically. Whether it’s just being able to shoot over defenders, drawing fouls, dominating the paint, or whatever else, let’s see WKU own UNT in this department and they will have a chance.

Fundamentals

When you’re trying to beat a well-coached team, you better do everything easy correctly. Box out. Effort. Defensive balance. Keep them in front of you. Communicate. Be engaged mentally and physically. Outmatch their intensity. These are all things you can control. Control all of that and let’s see where the chips fall.

Patience

North Texas is excruciating to play against in every way. Paint dries quicker than this team transitions from offense to defense. Statues have been carved in less time than this team runs an offensive set. So what? Lock in and concentrate. Don’t assume anything. Focus and take care of the task at hand. And for Pete’s sake, don’t fall into the trap of shooting tough perimeter shots. Find a way into the paint, draw some fouls, and you might have a chance to get into the 60s or God forbid, the 70s and have a really good chance.

Score 60

Speaking of scoring in the 60s, if WKU can score into the 60s, they’ll probably win. UNT hasn’t allowed more than 71 points in years, people. So when I say shoot for 60, that’s like scoring 80 on most defenses. It’s really hard to get to that number. Here’s the crazy thing: Western is capable of being that team that scores 70 on North Texas, but they’re also capable of getting blown out. Play well. Score. Penetrate. Pass. Be patient but aggressive.

Keys vs. UTSA

Burn the Boats

It’s a road game. Yeah it might be tough. You’re probably going to be on a five game losing streak. Just break the streak already. If you’re not and you actually beat UNT, good job. Don’t have a letdown. Get it done. Period. No excuses against UTSA. Losing is not an option. Burn the boats.

Blitzkrieg Deutschland

Jacob Germany is a good player for UTSA. He’s been one of their key players for a few years now. He’s a big man that had a big game against WKU last season. I think if the Tops can slow him down, it sure is tough to see UTSA doing enough to beat WKU.

Avoid Death by 1,000 Pin Pricks

UTSA doesn’t score a ton, but they do have a lot of balance on their team. Four guys average double figures, but none of them average more than 12 points per game. So instead of focusing on one person, frankly, I think this should be more of a team focus. What conceptually can we do to slow them down as a team? That would be more of my focus than individual matchups. Of course you still study and know who you’re dealing with, which way they drive, etc. But ultimately, I think this comes down to slowing down UTSA’s offense and dealing with their defense enough to win the game.

Pound It

UTSA is not a great defensive team, giving up 74 points per game. However, they defend the three well, allowing a shade over 31%. That’s well above average defense on the perimeter. I would attack the Roadrunners incessantly. Over and over, ram your players in the paint and have the refs call fouls. You should be fairly dominant over them physically, and especially athletically. Germany is a nice athlete, but he’s no match for WKU’s overall athleticism. Use your speed and size to get to the free throw line and win this game in a way that would make Rick Stansbury cry with pure joy.

Deal With the Atmosphere

No more than 1,500 people will be there, and with UTSA being at best 1-3 in C-USA at this point, they’re not going to draw 1,000 people. This arena is also a lot like a high school gym, with a rectangle shape, a small amount of space behind the basket and a brick wall, and stands up the side of the court on both sides. It’s weird playing in college-level arenas and then having to play in AAC level gyms. It might seem silly, but it’s weird playing in front of no crowd and playing in a weirdly shaped arena. Why do conference tournaments usually show a lower shooting percentage? Weird venues is the main reason. Don’t underestimate this factor.

Prediction

I think I would be ridiculous to predict a Western victory over North Texas. What frustrates me is Western is definitively more equipped to beat North Texas than North Texas is to beat Western Kentucky. Yet guess what? North Texas is almost certainly winning this one. We’ll see, but I’m not holding my breath. We’ll go UNT 60-WKU 51. I predict it’s not even a close affair.

Against UTSA, I have a hard time seeing the Roadrunners do anything to WKU. They might, especially at home, but WKU better take care of business or Rick Stansbury’s seat will be impossible to sit in from the heat that will bubble forth from WKU faithful. I think regardless of the UNT result, beating UTSA is more important for the sanity of the fan base. Everyone knows UNT is going to be tough. Bonus points for winning, but 90% of people will expect to lose this game. A loss to UTSA, though, will cancel any result against North Texas out and there will be pitchforks out in earnest. I’ve got WKU beating UTSA 76-66.

I firmly believe WKU is winning at least one game this week. You have to, right? Everything has gone wrong of late. Surely something will go right, and hopefully, my first prediciton will be wrong, the second one will come true, and we’ll all breathe a sigh of relief and feel like maybe this team has a chance of not being a colossal disappointment. Losing either game virtually solidifies that WKU will not contend for a C-USA title, though. At 1-3 or especially 0-4, WKU would be in such a hole that the damage could be irreparable regardless of future results.