Keys to Victory vs. UAB

Despite an early upset by Rice over Marshall and a scare from Rice against UAB, ultimately the top half of the C-USA Tournament Bracket has…

Despite an early upset by Rice over Marshall and a scare from Rice against UAB, ultimately the top half of the C-USA Tournament Bracket has played out exactly as expected. Western Kentucky draws the second seed from the West Division, UAB.

An interesting coaching matchup, Rick Stansbury (Mississippi State) and Andy Kennedy (Ole Miss) played each other multiple times a year when their careers crossed paths in the SEC. Rick Stansbury stands at 8–4 in the matchup between the two experienced coaches. However, Stansbury has also had the more elite teams in most matchups, as well. This season, both teams are about equal.

Andy Kennedy has completely revived his alma mater in one season. UAB had been in the doldrums for years, really not doing anything of significance since 2015 when they won as a lower seed and followed up in 2016 with a regular season championship. UAB was a seven seed last season and here they are, flirting with a division championship and making a run to (at least) the conference semifinals.

UAB is clearly a well-coached, disciplined team, just looking at the stats. Every stat that suggests effort and discipline stands in favor of UAB. Defensive shooting percentage inside and outside, offensive rebounding, and turnover margin all stand out. Translation: Andy Kennedy knows what he’s doing and he’s got some pretty good talent and experience that cares.

Before we get into keys for the Tops heading into UAB, let’s look at what WKU did against UTSA and my previous keys. To know where you’re going, you must know from whence you came, right?

Keys to Victory From UTSA:

1. Hollingsworth and Bassey need to be comparable statistically to Wallace and Jackson. Wallace and Jackson totaled 35 points, while Hollingsworth and Bassey put in 33. Wallace was incredible, dumping in 30 points, but needed 24 shots to do it. Jackson was 2–12 from the field with five points. He did drop in six assists and five rebounds. However, Bassey was everywhere and Hollingsworth contributed in the second half to keep UTSA from really getting back in the game. The Tops arguably won this battle outright.

2. Contain three point shooting. 9-for-28. UTSA cranked it plenty of times, but hit less than a third of their shots. WKU’s defense was excellent and actually did a really good job. Maybe three of the 28 shots were truly wide open. You have to take that if you’re Rick Stansbury.

3. Limit turnovers. Considering WKU generally averages over 15, only committing 12 is a win, and three came late in the game once it was decided and the bench was in. For this team, 12 is something you’d take every time.

4. Keep UTSA under 70. WKU did exactly that, allowing 67 and holding the Roadrunners to 25 at the half. UTSA got into some rhythm in the second half, shooting 50 percent but less than 40 for the game overall.

5. Win the mental battle. There’s no question the Toppers came out ready to go, playing hard, diving on the floor, and playing lockdown defense. The only complaint here is exactly what I was afraid of: Wasting energy leading to potential injuries and possible attrition later in the tournament. Because WKU didn’t maintain its 23 point lead, starters had to come back and play significant minutes late in the second half. After the game should’ve been completely out of reach, Josh Anderson gets tackled and probably will have some soreness, and Bassey tweaks his back. Winning a tournament is partly staying healthy and conserving energy. I don’t think the Tops really killed themselves in the second half, but close games force energy to be spent. Hopefully that doesn’t take from their chances.

And the honorable mentions from yesterday: Dominate the paint (30–22), Josh Anderson or Carson Williams need to score well into double digits (Carson 15 points, nine rebounds; Anderson a defensive beast), Tay Hollingsworth doesn’t have more turnovers than Jhivvan Jackson (tied).

Prediction: WKU 81-UTSA 69

Actual: WKU 80-UTSA 67

Keys for the Tops to Beat UAB

1. Injuries and recovery. Without question, an 11:00 game after a late afternoon game competing for a championship creates variables. Which team recovers from the bangs and bruises of conference tournament play? UAB was in a much closer battle, actually down four with eight minutes to play but ultimately winning by 13. WKU may not have been in the most vicious of battles, but injuries will certainly play a factor. Carson Williams bumped a shoulder early but seemed to shake it off. Anderson took some blows. Obviously the main concern is Bassey. Can he go? Can he be effective? Can he be his best?

2. The guards need to play well. Dayvion McKnight can be susceptible to turnovers, but he can also be electric. Kenny Cooper has been somewhat disappointing this season, but he also brings experience and stability. He got much better in a bench role. Jordan Rawls fills in a sixth man hybrid role in multiple guard positions but can light it up in quick explosions. Tayvion needs to be great. He has had some legendary games at times, especially in games WKU would not have won otherwise. This game might be that game the Tops need to get to its third straight championship appearance. These four guards are huge in this game, because first of all, UAB is aggressive and will try to disrupt the flow. Guards need to be able to break the pressure and handle and distribute the ball. Also, UAB has depth, length, and variety at the guard positions. The vast majority of production comes from The Blazers’ backcourt players.

3. Win the free throw battle. If UAB made more of its free throws, the Blazers would be a mirror of WKU in this category: Making more than its opponent attempts. UAB shoots less than 70 percent, so if they happen to shoot over 80, in a close game, that’s several hidden points in their favor. Likewise, if WKU can’t get to the line, or the Tops, who normally shoot 79 percent as a team, all of a sudden shoot poorly, this could spell disaster. If one teams dominates in the number of makes, attempts and fouls, that could be an indicator of the outcome.

4. Battle of the grown men. UAB has a legit frontcourt with a true seven footer with skills. Trey Jamison is capable, averaging seven points, seven rebounds, and two blocks. UAB also starts 6'7" Kassim Nicholson and 6'8" backup Rongie Gordon sees most of the rest of the minutes for the UAB frontcourt. What this spells is trouble for Carson Williams. Carson generally struggles with longer, taller, thicker opponents. UTSA was a perfect matchup for him because Germany was the only size the Roadrunners had. UAB has length at most positions and certainly edges WKU in the size department with the exception of Josh Anderson. He is the one player for WKU that might be a tough matchup for UAB besides the obvious Hollingsworth and Bassey. If healthy, Bassey must be strong and dominant, especially in this matchup. If Carson is great again, I think WKU wins easily. But I expect him to struggle. Someone else must step in there.

5. Handle the pressure. UAB forces 16 turnovers a game. WKU commits 15 a game. UAB generally pressures all game, switching up defenses, while only committing a shade over ten a game themselves. That’s a really nice formula for success. We’ve talked about it. WKU’s Achilles heel is really its turnover woes. Could this be the game that bites the Tops?

Prediction

I’m really antsy about this one, and frankly, UAB was the one team I had my eye on since looking at their stats around January. There was something about the way they were winning that caught my eye. And I hadn’t put my finger on it until seeing their final statistics and a few minutes of gameplay as of last night: UAB is not flashy, but they don’t waste opportunities. When they get leads, they generally keep them. When it’s time to finish a team off, they finish a team off. That’s what makes them dangerous.

I’m going to stick to my guns and say WKU wins this game, but I am tempted to just be honest and say maybe UAB will pull this out. I’m completely on the fence on this game, because I see a team in WKU that, when at full strength should win this game most nights. However, the Tops may have legit injury issues to deal with. Before the tournament, I saw this particular game as the most difficult. Now with plenty of health questions, it’s even more shaky.

But I still go back to a few things: WKU is truly loaded, even without Bassey. Also, they’ve been there and done that. WKU has a lineup full of experienced players, be it those that experienced at least one of the championship appearances in 2018 and 2019, or the several transfers from other schools that went to the NCAA Tournament a few years ago. If I’m them, I break it down and survive. You can win one game in a row no matter what. Worry about three games in a row Saturday night.

With my fingers crossed, I say WKU pulls this thing out on pure guts. This game is an instant classic. Whether it’s a comeback, a meltdown and then holding on at the last second, or a true 20 ties and 20 lead changes type of game, I’ve got WKU 65– Louisiana Tech 64.