Keys to Victory vs. UTSA and UTEP

What does WKU need to do sweep this week in a desperate time for Western Basketball?

Honestly, who saw this coming? I don’t think anyone saw this degree of depravity, nor did they really see this degree of difficulty in conference play. Conference USA is a force right now, with a ranked team and ten teams (if you even include Western) who could legitimately make a run at a C-USA title.

Each team has something to offer, including UTSA, the cellar dweller. Even they are not a guaranteed win on any given night, although at 1-11 in conference with only seven total wins all season, they better be for a team and program like Western Kentucky.

Western Kentucky (11-11 overall, 3-8 C-USA) is officially in disaster mode. A team that was supposed to flirt with the Top 25, potentially not only make the tournament but build an at-large type of resume and make a run in the NCAA Tournament, this team is on the cusp of a historically dreadful season. This is certainly a historically bad start, with very few teams historically doing worse in any category or measurement to this point in the season. Most programs would be ok with 11-11, but not Western Kentucky. Very, very rarely does Western not have a winning record, and against such a soft non-conference schedule, to be sitting at .500 and barely ranked inside the top 200 in the country, it’s desperation time. Nine games remain. It’s time to turn on the jets or I think we all fear the Tops may just completely turn off the engine.

What’s frustrating is not only that this is happening, but Rick Stansbury and really everybody in the “inner circle” of WKU Athletics got many of us to buy completely in and truly believe this was a team of destiny, that if any year is going to be the year, it’s this year with this roster. Everyone was talking about how good this team should be. Even the Stansbury detractors were open to the possbility of a decent season.

Now all of that has turned to a bunch of turds in a punch bowl and Rick Stansbury and his staff are working on a dastardly exit out of Bowling Green. The deal is not sealed, though. All can in theory be salvaged. Things must turn around quickly, though, or they coaching staff is not going to survive until March, let alone continue Stansbury’s tenure in to the second calendar quarter of 2023.

Despite it all, Western is sitting with an opportunity in its lap once again. Despite a turd of a season, Western is 3.5 games out of third place in the conference, meaning everybody is beating up on everybody. Western has a chance to beat a (let’s face it) trash UTSA team. Then UTEP comes to town, a team that travels a time zone every time it plays a conference game and a team that has to travel 1359 (Apple Map) miles just to get to Diddle Arena. In addition, they’ll be working on short rest after all of that travel. Also, on the court, UTEP is a game and a half ahead of Western and should likely be sitting a half game ahead of Western at tipoff Saturday. It’s a big game assuming Western has beaten UTSA Thursday. It could be monumental to Stansbury if the Tops lost, I suppose. No matter what, this is a potential turning point for WKU.

If Western wins its two games, the Tops will almost certainly climb two spots in the standings, and they will absolutely sit two games closer in the standings than they would if they screw it up this weekend.

We know Western NEEDS both of these. Imagine the ramifications if Western loses both! My goodness. Stansbury could be fired immediately, although I doubt that’s the most likely response if that were to happen.

But Western would be right back in the thick of it in Conference USA. Keep in mind, the top five teams in C-USA get byes this season, so if Western can make up just three games in the standings in nine more remaining conference games, the Tops could somehow end up as one of the favorites to win Conference USA once again.

So what does Western need to do to sweep this week?

Keys to Victory

Play Harder Than the Opponent

It seems so simple, but this team struggles to engage for a full 40 minutes. There is a “sleepwalking” mode to this team, and it’s like no one realizes it until we’re five minutes into it and the score has swung by 10-20 points in the opposite direction. Western continually loses the battle on the boards despite being THE tallest team per minute in the entire country. With 6’11” Fallou Diagne potentially playing a bigger role, this will become an even bigger concern if the trend continues. This team also rarely gets or goes after the loose ball. Diddle might be discouraged, but Diddle will also have your back if you play your basketballs off. Fight!

Play Team Ball

Another weakness of this team is not necessarily “selfishness”, but this team definitely does not generally jell well together and make sense offensively. Far too often, it’s iso ball with Dayvion or Akot or Lander or Allen or Rawls. Very, very rarely does this team look like a smooth offensive unit. Look like you know what you’re doing, and for Todd’s sake PLAY FOR EACH OTHER! Have each other’s back. And delete Tinder!

Speaking of which…

Delete All Apps That Don’t Involve Being Successful at Basketball

Tinder. SnapChat. Twitter DMs. Insta. Hell, delete LinkedIn if you have to if you’re in to hot professional girls (or apparently mediocre looking Florida women). Delete that there Spacebook. Whatever you gotta do so that you’re not national freaking news Sunday morning, Topper Nation would appreciate it if you would kindly execute this one request. What an embarassment. In all seriousness, just avoid all these stupid distractions. Whatever it is. Not just the obvious catfish scandal, when the opposing team’s girls solicited you on dating apps. But also, focus on trying to win a damn game, because right now, boys, Y’ain’t gettin that done lately, either. Be all in.

Live up to Your Comment About Using Fallou Diagne

It only took two months to figure it out, but apparently Fallou Diagne is a unique combination of offensive ability and height. Who knew? Fallou Diagne played at least eight minutes in each game until the game against Wright State, and was very effective, averaging over six points per game and a couple of rebounds. In every game from Louisville to present, he has not played more than six minutes and his averages have cut in half. There was clearly a switch at that point, and Fallou lost favor, as so many players have inexplicably in the Stansbury era. Turning over a new leaf, Stansbury has now “refound” his trust in Fallou and realizes he can’t win without playing one of the most unique young skillsets in his tenure. Has Rick Stansbury realized the errors in his ways over the years?

Now is the greatest test: Will this actually happen? Will it be applied in a way that makes strategical sense? Will Jamarion be negatively affected? These are all questions, but there is zero question the top nine guys (it was ten with Luke Frampton) all deserve to play, and they all should average 10+ minutes per game. There’s no reason for it at this point. You have literally nothing to fight for until March besides seeding. Rest their bodies but tune up their minds for a run in March. Conduct everything as if you are trying to win every game, but make a seismic shift in the substitution pattern and save their legs.

Make Strategical Sense in the Coaching Box

Whatever individual decisions are made in terms of defense played, matchups highlighted, statistics targeted, and timeouts taken, just please make sense. For example, Western plays FAU twice. Zone didn’t work, but man didn’t, either. FAU has a distinct speed advantage on you, and they are also incredibly efficient and explosive offensively. So what does Western do? Mainly play straight-up man-to-man and live with it. In my opinion, you are clearly not the better team. Admit it. You’re not winning straight up on most teams right now. So junk it up already! Your offense is crap. Your three point defense is mega crap. So match your defensive strategy with your offense and your overall strategy might make actual sense. Make the game miserable for teams to make a decision by taking away what they like to do. OR encourage them to beat you with things they don’t! Change up your defenses like they change up Powerade bottles during timeouts and let’s watch the opponent squirm every possession.

Against UTSA, I would highlight the three leading scorers, because if you stop them, you stop UTSA. Make it a priority to stop those guys and force UTSA to come up with other point producers. Draw fouls on Jacob Germany and get him out of there. Feed Jamarion. Feed Fallou. Feed Jairus. Draw fouls. Take it straight to the cup. Against UTEP, pack the paint defensively, but also please for the love of God attempt to defend the three. UTEP shoots 27% from three. So keep them there and don’t allow them to shoot 35%! If they are allowed to shoot that percentage, that takes them from scoring 68 points per game to the mid-70s, and therefore on that night, they become a decent shooting team.

But also force them to shoot outside shots. I would probably run a 2-3 zone on them most of the game. Also, be aware they like to junk up the game and force turnovers defensively, so pressing aggressively may not be in your best interest in this game. Then again, if you’re struggling to stop them that night, trying a press or trap with the right person at the top (Tyrone Marshall or Jairus Hamilton would be my suggestion and NOT Emmanuel Akot) might be a good sparak. And hey, maybe try to play that card BEFORE you’re down 13 with three minutes left! Sprinkle it in during the first half. I really don’t care the specifics. Just make sense so that we can say, “Oh ok that’s what he’s doing!” and not WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING?!? Like not fouling down 7 with a full shot clock with a minute remaining. Like not calling the last timeout with a minute left when you’re up two possessions. Like scoring in overtime. These are things we want to see. It’s your audition for another year, coach. Create yourself some margin, bro. Show us you know what you’re doing. And if you lose some games, so be it. Few would be losing their minds wanting the coach fired if the coach showed brilliance night in and night out.

Prediction

I’ll be honest. This team without Luke Frampton is even less engaged, or at least that’s what we’ve seen so far. They’re even less potent offensively. They will probably not draw a charge the rest of the season. Luke Frampton felt like the disposable player from last year, but now that he stepped his game up and became the Luke Frampton we all hoped he would be, his loss is felt immeasurably by this team.

So what it means is if Western is going to make any kind of run here, let alone win several games, this team is going to have to come together. They’re going to have to unite. And they’re going to have to fight. If they don’t do that, they could easily get swept this week. They could easily lose every game going forward if they quit. And some people genuinely think they have. I don’t see “quit” from this team quite yet. I see “quit”e a lot of lack of focus. But losing a bunch in a row can zap the belief out of anybody. The Tops must snap out of it immediately, or the slope grows ever steeper.

UTSA is an atrocious team (emphasis on team) and in the cellar by two games for a reason, but they are not talentless individually. Western matches well with them (athletically, size, skill, depth), but Western also had them completely cornered and nearly let them back in the game in San Antonio. Sneezing at UTSA would be a complete and utter mistake. Western better focus on beating them, because UTEP will be a much tougher task. You better win this win or brooms could be out by 5:00 Saturday evening.

UTEP is a team that sorely misses Souley Boum. For those that don’t know, he was arguably the best player in C-USA last year, and he’s now one of the key pieces on a ranked Xavier team. UTEP is decent without him. Imagine how much of a contender they would be if they had their main offensive weapon instead of shooting 27% from three as a team. He would have made them a good offensive team, and their defense would probably be better, too. Imagine how much tougher C-USA would be if UTEP was an elite team, as well! It’s mind-boggling.

Western hasn’t hardly played UTEP in recent years because of divisions last year and COVID issues in previous years, so we don’t know what bullet we dodged by not having to deal with one of the best players in America on very average teams. In fact, Western has played UTEP exactly once in the past four seasons (including this season). Western beat UTEP 67-62 in 2019-20 right before COVID shut down the world in the Spring of 2020. It’s almost like UTEP is a non-conference opponent in some ways. They are utterly unfamiliar to Western fans and players. They’re from a different area of the country. Few on the roster have ever played UTEP. Guess what? They’re pretty good and certainly have been better in conference play than Western Kentucky. Despite Western being a likely decent favorite, I wouldn’t consider Western a true favorite to win this game at all. They’re going to have to play well to win.

In terms of predicting what may happen, I’m honestly torn and have no idea what’s going to happen this weekend. I’ll tell you this: If Western loses to UTSA, you can expect pitchforks to start to be attempted to be snuck in to Diddle Arena. Paper bags may be worn. If Western gets swept at home, Rick Stansbury could potentially be fired postgame. That’s not official news. It’s just math. And it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion. But…that would be six losses in a row including the bottom five teams in the conference and a ranked team. The ranked team is understandable and Western played well that game. Losing to all of the rest, though? If Western doesn’t get one of these two in Diddle, who are they beating the rest of the year? The schedule gets worse from here…

That being said, I sincerely don’t think Western loses both. My honest opinion is WKU will handle UTSA tonight at 7 PM in Diddle Arena. Will it be close? I don’t know. But this is the perfect opponent to play on a four game losing streak. Snap out of it, boys. Then UTEP, I honestly think they’re a good matchup for Western, so let’s give the Tops a real shot at sweeping this week. However, I have a hard time buying that Western physically can win two games in a row in Conference USA. They’re too inconsistent and the league is too good. Also, if we don’t include the two Division II wins, Diddle Arena has only been a few percentage points better than the Tops playing on the road, so I don’t think there should be too many bonus points for playing at home.

I hope they read this and get pissed. Please do. Stay pissed, though. And that’s the problem. Western has incredible focus for stretches of games, looking like a team of destiny. The next breath, they’ll meltdown a double digit lead within the same amount of time they exploded only minutes earlier. This team is yet to stay focused for 40 minutes all season with the exception of, let’s generously say three games: Kentucky State, UAB, and the most recent loss to FAU. They were fully engaged during those three, and I think everyone could agree on that. Other than that, there have been massive lapses in every other game.

So I hate to predict a loss on a weekend that should easily be a sweep in every other season in the history of Western Kentucky, but I’ve got Western beating UTSA and losing to UTEP.

Please, fellas. We love y’all. Honest to God, we want to get a ring this year. It is FREAKING possible. I don’t care what a bunch of nitwits might say on Twitter. Ignore my frustration seeping through this article. Ultimately, we all want you want: Glory for the Tops. Let’s go get it. Prove me wrong. Save coach’s job. Sweep this Texas tilt, and let’s get this ship back on track and win in March.

If Western does win these two, they almost certainly will pass someone in the standings, potentially passing or tying any of four teams within their grasp this weekend. UTSA would also be firmly in last place.

I’ll say this, Topper fans. I know you’re frustrated. I’m frustrated. Stansbury needs to win immediately. He needs to take the Tops to the tournament this year. Period. But if you’re in Diddle Arena, support this team. If they start winning, invest your emotions back in to the Tops and give them a chance to ride the wave. This season is not dead if the Tops get together and become what they could be.

Do you bleed red or not?

Come on, fellas. Just win. We’ve got you.