Lady Topper Hoops: Notebook — MTSU Review & Conference USA Tournament Preview
Lady Tops Dominate Middle, Earn Conference Tournament Bye in Double-Digit Fashion
Lady Tops Dominate Middle, Earn Conference Tournament Bye in Double-Digit Fashion
“Western Kentucky women’s basketball can’t defend.”
“That offensive talent is a waste with a historically bad defense.”
“Whitney Creech has digressed from last year.”
“This team doesn’t have fire or leadership.”
“This season is probably going to go down as the program’s worst in nearly a decade.”
These are all things WKU fans, media members and second rate jughead bloggers (me) have either thought or read this season. It’s been a frustrating season, but frankly, Thursday night made me wonder if I’ve been wrong about this team.
Don’t get me wrong: I still think WKU has now put itself in a more difficult spot than it should be in. After Thursday’s game, WKU sits as a four seed, with one total win against the seeds above them (Rice, UAB, Middle), an overtime road victory against its potential quarterfinal opponent (Marshall), and a loss against each of its potential semifinal opponents (Rice, Southern Miss, North Texas).
In addition to a crap draw, the Lady Toppers have had significant issues defensively (as in nearly historically bad), are not good against the three, are not good on the glass, and when looking at the complete season stats, are not very balanced or deep.
That being said, WKU’s effort against Middle Tennessee Thursday night was eye-opening. I have seen virtually every WKU home game throughout the year, and I have watched or listened to almost every road game. I may have missed five or six total. I have combed through each individual game’s box score.
I know the 2018–19 Lady Toppers, and that performance (and somewhat the other two previous games) was a complete and utter juxtaposition from the rest of this season.
Maybe I buried my lead a little bit here, but in front of an (actually decent) Senior Night crowd of 1823, Western raided arch-rival Middle Tennessee in convincing fashion, 67–56. Despite being a high-quality game (both teams shooting over 40 percent and both 15 or fewer turnovers), WKU was in complete control after the first media timeout.
With 4:52 left in the first quarter, WKU led 10–6. MTSU would not get closer than two points (49–47 with 1:05 left in the third quarter) the rest of the way. Although the two rivals exchanged buckets for the first few minutes, after the first media break, Middle had a total of 2:09 of game time standing within three points of WKU. Translation: Western utterly dominated a very good team.
Alex Johnson, Middle’s lone full-time starter, poured in 17 points, but no other Blue Raider scored more than ten points. WKU held Middle to 41.7 percent from the field, which is frankly an enormous effort for the Lady Tops. WKU was beaten on the boards by three, but anytime this Lady Topper team is close on the glass, Topper fans should rejoice.
Western Kentucky’s starting five was incredible against MTSU. No starter scored less than nine points or shot less than 41 percent from the field. They accounted for 64 of WKU’s 67 points, shooting better than 50 percent as a group. That effort alone could beat anyone in Conference USA.
Overall, it was a remarkable performance, and perhaps more impressive was the sense of urgency the Lady Tops played with. Finally, they looked like a championship basketball team.
C-USA Tournament Outlook
(Sorry, Conference USA. I would use your brackets, but much like your TV coverage, they’re terrible, took very little into consideration, and just don’t look good.)
Western Kentucky heads into this conference tournament feeling good. Rice is amazing, having only lost three games all year, currently ranked in the AP poll. They do have a tough road, with competent opponents all of the ways to the championship round no matter what. However, of Rice’s 16 games (of which they are 16–0), the Owls have played one single-digit game, a game in which they bludgeoned ODU with defense, allowing 42 points in a come-from-behind victory by six in early February. Rice should probably get an at-large bid, regardless of its performance in the tournament.
Clearly below the Owls in a second tier is UAB, the preseason favorite. They’ve won five in a row, including beating Middle, WKU, and Marshall. The Blazers have a decent draw, but facing Charlotte in the quarterfinal could be tricky if that happened to be the case. However, Charlotte has to get through La Tech, who thrashed them by 37 in January. UAB could easily face a 10 seed for the right to get to the semifinals, and Middle has a tough draw to get to that point, as well. Could UAB waltz to the finals on a miracle draw?
Completely even with UAB is Middle Tennessee. Much improved and coached by (hate to say it) a great coach in Rick “Finally Wore a Nice Suit in His Life” Insell, Middle is always dangerous but frankly has a tough draw with a Marshall team that has played awesome basketball the last month and a half.
Then there is WKU, which is playing well and is on even footing with the other higher seeds. Western should probably be included with UAB and Middle in terms of quality, but WKU has been much more inconsistent this season, has more deficiencies, and has by far the tougher road. WKU has to (likely) face Marshall, who is playing good basketball and took the Tops to overtime a few weeks ago. Then WKU gets the winner of Rice, USM, and North Texas (all of which they lost to once at home by no less than nine). Then they likely play Middle and UAB, both of which they lost to on the road convincingly.
In a third tier, Old Dominion immediately has to turn around and face FAU, who just took them to the wire on Thursday, then gets rewarded WKU (who beat them by 15), then Rice, and then the other side of the bracket. ODU has had a great, surprise season, but it may end very quickly because of the draw.
Marshall is an interesting team to watch. First of all, they don’t get WKU or Rice, who beat them with ease. They would face Middle if they beat a UTEP team that should be swept away quickly. The Herd upset the Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro three weeks ago. They would not have to face a team they lost to until the semifinals. That’s a great draw for a dark horse sixth seed in a top-heavy conference tournament. Marshall could certainly be left standing from UAB’s side of the bracket.
Charlotte slots in the seventh spot, and again, a heck of a draw. If Charlotte could get through La Tech, who thrashed them in January, they could easily march to the semis or better. Charlotte is very dangerous and is always talented.
Southern Miss could bust everyone’s hopes in C-USA. Few teams have won more games since February started, and very few teams in the country are coached by legends. Joye Lee-McNelis frankly makes chicken salad out of chicken poop year in and year out. She very rarely has a team with an eight seed, and this is probably the most dangerous eight seed in Conference USA in a long time. Watch for Southern Miss.
Ninth-seeded North Texas is another possible option to take out Rice. Never underestimate the power of proximity, but UNT could sleep in their own beds and have a significant crowd on hand. This may be unrealistic with two teams likely to lose in the first round, but UNT could easily bake up some home cooking and make a run. They’re also big enough and could match-up well against a team like Southern Miss.
Louisiana Tech is another program steeped in tradition that could upset a few people. Not having to face Rice is great for them, and this team mysteriously tanked in conference play. At 6–10 in the conference, La Tech could easily finish with a .500 record overall by making the semis. They’re much better than their seed, as well.
Yeah ok, I’m talking about possible dark horses. UTEP shouldn’t stand a chance against Marshall. They have eight overall wins, for Pete’s sake. However, they’ve won five in the conference, so they’re not a complete doormat. Shocking Marshall would make life easier for Middle, though.
FAU lucked out with an RPI good enough to make the tournament as the 12 seed. However, facing ODU is actually not a bad draw. Unfortunately, they get WKU and then almost certainly Rice, if they’re somehow able to pull off a miracle. Their only conference wins are against teams that didn’t make the conference tournament. Hey, at least they made the tournament, right?
Prediction
First of all, the obvious question…
Can anyone beat Rice? I think it’s possible, but the proof is in the pudding. Any team that goes 16–0 with one single digit win against a conference that yields a second-place team with four losses is a conference that they should win going away. However, their draw is not easy.
In all likelihood, they will face three competent, conference championship, hopeful teams. WKU is certainly capable, especially with their offensive firepower. Southern Miss could shock them by simply being outcoached, but Rice feels like an awful match-up for Southern Miss. UAB and Middle are also very capable squads that could represent Conference USA very well if they were the C-USA Tournament Champion.
UAB to me seems to be the strong favorite on the other side of the bracket, and unless there is some glaring reason to go against the grain, women’s basketball is so much more likely to result in chalk. As boring as that is, and how much I want WKU to face UTEP in the finals, I don’t see how that’s possible. I am extremely tempted to pick WKU to shock the world, but I’m just not buying it quite yet. I think everyone in the conference would love to see it, without question. However, Tops are just too inconsistent.
I do see Marshall and Middle as threats in UAB’s quest to get to the conference championship final, but I see UAB and Rice facing in the championship, with Rice taking UAB down by double digits.
The Towel Rack will be covering the Lady Tops in Frisco this week as they start their quest for their third straight CUSA tournament championship and their fifth NCAA tournament appearance in six years. It all starts on Thursday afternoon at 11:30 CT as the Lady Toppers play the winner of ODU & FAU. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.