Lady Topper Notebook: Tops Blitz UTEP Early and Survive; Struggling UTSA Comes to Diddle Saturday

The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers are officially rolling again. Sure, a few bumps, bruises, and cuts occur, but if anyone in C-USA Women’s…

The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers are officially rolling again. Sure, a few bumps, bruises, and cuts occur, but if anyone in C-USA Women’s Basketball is rolling right now (besides Rice and Old Dominion), it’s got to be WKU.

The Lady Toppers have now won seven in a row, the last six of which were all by at least nine points and four were on the road. Sure, all but two were against teams with losing records. However, winning seven in a row and doing it convincingly is so impressive.

This past week, WKU took on Louisiana Tech (12–11, 4–8 C-USA) and Southern Miss (12–11, 4–8 C-USA). Despite hideous conference records, both of those teams, especially at home, are tough squads. They propose match-up issues and are well-coached. WKU controlled both match-ups fairly well, beat La Tech 84–75 while blowing out USM 81–65.

Conference USA Women’s Basketball is unofficially the 13th strongest conference (according to RealTimeRPI) this season, so for a mid-major type of conference, C-USA has a gauntlet of really good teams. No one in the conference gets to run through without playing nearly half of its games against top 100 teams. Most mid-major conferences have maybe three or four (and this is very generous) teams in the top 100, but C-USA (depending on the week) has had at least five the entire year. Two (#30 WKU and #28 ODU) sit inside the top 30 in the country.

Last Night

Yesterday, WKU took on a sneaky good Texas-El Paso squad. Despite barely having a winning record (13–10, 6–6 C-USA), UTEP has suffered six of its ten losses by less than ten points, many of them against quality opponents. All season, UTEP’s great margin of loss is 16, so the Miners have basically won, been in or at least around in every single game this season.

WKU (17–6, 9–3 C-USA) has won seven in a row and is really firing on at least most cylinders. Thursday, Western raided the Miners in the first quarter, busting open a 15 point lead by the end of the quarter. Throughout most of the first half, WKU was expanding on its lead, flirting with the possibility of holding UTEP under 40 or 50 points.

However, UTEP was able to wiggle its way back into the game, showing some grit and cutting WKU’s lead (as large as 27) down to 16 by the break. UTEP would continue to ride its momentum heading into halftime by eventually cutting WKU’s lead down to five as late as 2:45 left in the fourth quarter. WKU would turn the burners on and outscore the Miners 12–4 over the last 2:45 of the game.

WKU’s starting lineup accounted for all but six points, several rebounds, and no assists. This is the absolute trend for WKU’s bench. They produce very little besides rebounding. But without Raneem Elgedawy’s 14 rebounds, the bench would only be outrebounded by the rest of the starting lineup by three. The bench is given an opportunity to contribute, and they generally show up by cleaning the boards and allowing the stars to produce.

Whitney Creech (six points, three assists, three turnovers, two steals) was the only Topper starter to not score 16 or 17 points. Meral Abdelgawad, Dee Givens, Elgedawy, and Alexis Brewer all performed well enough to carry the Lady Tops.

Michelle Pruitt of UTEP was clearly the one reason UTEP remotely stayed in the game, making 8-of-8 shots (all two-pointers) and plopping in 17 points off of the bench in only 23 minutes. Otherwise, the Miners would have had very little hope in this game.

Where they Stand

No, I’m not high. It’s actually frickin’ possible for C-USA Women’s Basketball to be a three bid league this year. Honestly, I believe five teams could make a case for at-large consideration at the moment. WKU sits in third place in C-USA with (as the kids say) hella tiebreakers. Basically, the Tops really have to get lucky to move up (need to gain three games on either Rice or ODU to take first or second) and really have to blow it to move downward (up a full game on MTSU, UAB and have defeated both). WKU has a couple of huge opportunities at MTSU on February 29 and at home against Charlotte March 5.

At-Large Bid is Totally Realistic

WKU is currently projected as an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. WKU currently slots in at an 11 seed, but if WKU could continue on the run it has been on through the end of the regular season, I think it would be fairly safe to say the Tops might be a lock for the tournament.

Now, that is a tall task, but probably necessary to feel comfortable in March. Losing to a bad team would put three bad losses on the resume. However, winning out and heading into the C-USA Tournament with only three losses in conference and six overall would probably place WKU in the top 25 in the RPI (maybe upper teens), add a couple more quality wins with several top 50/100 wins in and out of conference already on the resume, wins against other bubble teams, and a minimum of a three seed in a league that could easily put three teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Looking Ahead…

The Lady Tops draw UTSA’s women at home Saturday at 2 PM in Diddle Arena. At 6–17 overall and tied for last in the conference, UTSA should be a cakewalk. However, the Lady Tops have had trouble with UTSA before, losing to them a couple of times in the past in San Antonio. Despite the Road Runners never being front-runners, they tend to give WKU headaches.

UTSA gets blown out in most categories but holds it's own stealing the ball and getting blocks defensively. Other than that, as one would expect a 6–17 basketball team to be, they get blown out by 14 points on average, rarely win on the road, and do not shoot well.

The Road Runners do play a junky style of basketball, meaning they will foul, get foul, and disrupt the basketball as often as they can. They do force their opponents to turn the ball over 15 times a game and do slow the game down. In an average contest, they and their opponents will combine for 36 free throws a game.

It’s hard to see a way for WKU to lose this one, but UTSA does have size and length, which could certainly create issues for WKU’s small to average-sized front court. Raneem Elgedawy stands at 6'4", but everyone else that plays is around six feet tall.

WKU generally outrebounds its opponents and forces turnovers. UTSA turns the ball over frequently, does not rebound well, and does not shoot well. However, they do hold opponents to a respectable shooting percentage, so UTSA can play a little bit of defense at times.

This doesn’t feel like a great match-up for UTSA. WKU is red hot and hasn’t lost since mid-January. UTSA hasn’t won since early January. WKU forces turnovers and the Road Runners commit tons of them. WKU rebounds, while UTSA struggles to clean the boards.

This should be a sleepwalk for WKU, but just like Western struggled against a four-win FIU squad at home a few weeks ago, the Tops should not walk in Saturday simply expecting a fairly talented basketball team to just lay down and surrender.

Hopefully, Greg Collins doesn’t start his pre-game speech with references to sleepwalking and the Tops should be fine and sitting pretty with three weeks left in the regular season.