Lady Topper Notebook: Tops Skate By, Use Late Run to Beat Marshall
Western Kentucky Women’s Basketball is fighting for plenty right now. They are somewhat on the ropes, or at least under-the-gun, to keep…
Western Kentucky Women’s Basketball is fighting for plenty right now. They are somewhat on the ropes, or at least under-the-gun, to keep pace with the top of the standings. In addition, they are fighting for positioning for an at-large bid.
The Lady Tops (12–6, 4–3 in C-USA, RPI: 28) took on Marshall (7–11, 2–5 in C-USA) in their lone conference game of the week Saturday. With the women and men of C-USA operating on different systems for conference play, schedules start varying as we get close to the pod system for the men. The women continue a normal schedule, with two games against their travel partner and three other schools.
Western stands sixth, 3.5 games behind first place Rice, which seems to be running away with first place. Old Dominion, who WKU lost to a few weeks ago, is sitting with two games and a tiebreaker on the Tops that won’t go away (ODU and WKU only play once in the regular season). However, WKU is within a game and completely in control of ending in third place by simply winning the games in front of them.
Saturday, WKU came out sluggishly, spotting Marshall a 7–0 lead. The Lady Toppers would shut down Marshall the rest of the quarter, only allowing seven more points and scoring 14 of their own. All told, it was a tie game after one quarter.
A back-and-forth battle featuring nine ties and ten lead changes, this game was in doubt until the final 1:10, when WKU would take an 11 point lead and ultimately finish up nine, 74–65. After WKU began down seven, despite the many lead changes, the Tops dominated, outscoring Marshall 74–58. In a pattern very common for WKU, the Tops wore Marshall down, eventually exploding for an incredible 29 points in the quarter. Although Marshall scored at an 80 point per game clip in the final frame, WKU completely outclassed the Herd.
Western Kentucky found a way to get it done in typical Greg Collins fashion: Similar field goal percentage, but forcing turnovers and out-rebounding the opponent. When WKU forces turnovers and works hard, Greg Collins’ teams generally do fairly well.
It’s a blueprint that works. WKU is generally not massively efficient on the offensive end, although they can usually play and have skill. But generally, WKU asphyxiates the opponent, operating like a boa constrictor in some ways, wearing the opponent down until they can’t breathe. Then before they know it, they’re out of it and the deal is done.
Finally, Dee Givens and Raneem Elgedawy had nice, efficient games together for what seems to be the first time in forever. Dee Givens was the star, shooting 50 percent and dropping in 24 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. She still struggled from three, only making 4-of-13 from deep. Still, she was great. Raneem was incredibly efficient, making her presence felt in the form of 19 points and 13 rebounds on only 11 shots.
Whitney Creech (15 points, seven assists) and Meral Abdelgawad (12 points, six rebounds) were crucial, as well. WKU’s starters combined for all but four points. More worrisome, WKU played five players off of its bench, getting four points on 1-of-12 shooting and 2-of-5 from the free throw line. They did produce nine rebounds (mainly Sandra Skinner’s six), had three steals, a block, and an assist with only one turnover.
Sure, they contributed, but that 8.3 percent shooting from the bench absolutely has to improve. If WKU could have gotten two more of those shots to go down, the Tops win going away. The bench has been a concern all season, especially of late. No one outside of the regular starting lineup (Creech, Porter, Abdelgawad, Givens, Elgedawy) averages more than 16 minutes, only two have played all 18 games, and none of them average more than 3.3 points per game or shoot higher than 43 percent from the floor.
That is a huge liability moving forward, and with a starting lineup with five foul-outs and every starter except one averaging at least two fouls per game, the bench is going to have to do something for WKU to win a championship, or frankly, to even get a bye in the C-USA Tournament.
This Week
The Lady Toppers should be able to feast on lesser competition at home. WKU is undefeated in Diddle Arena while less than .500 away from home. The Tops get the Florida schools, FAU (9–10, 3–5 in C-USA) Thursday and FIU (4–15, 1–7 in C-USA) Saturday.
Let’s get real here: This is the week for a move from the Lady Tops. If they don’t sweep this week, kiss a bye goodbye. To me, that just shows that they don’t have what it takes. Period.
That being said, if they can just take care of business, teams within a game behind WKU and teams above the Tops play each other this week. That may have not come out right. Most everyone is playing a good team this week. Marshall and WKU are the only teams that do not face at least one opponent in the top half of the (current) standings.
Significant C-USA Match-ups This Week
Thursday:
T7 USM vs. 2 ODU
3 UTEP vs. T4 Middle
Saturday:
3 UTEP vs. T4 UAB
T7 USM vs. T7 Charlotte
Other match-ups matter, as well, like a good (but underachieving in conference) La Tech facing ODU and Charlotte. Of course, WKU’s match-ups matter because of opportunity. Rice plays North Texas with a chance to extend or maintain their lead on the rest of the conference.
However, those four match-ups above either will or could completely shake up the standings. If Old Dominion loses one or two games, now the other upper tier teams have a real shot to gain some ground. Regardless of the outcome of UTEP and Middle, if WKU takes care of its business, the Tops will absolutely be in at least fourth place alone with tiebreakers, or standing in third tied with a combination of UTEP, UAB, and Middle. UAB and/or MTSU could sweep at home and find themselves in third with room to breathe.
The loser of Southern Miss and Charlotte will find themselves way out of it, and whoever loses at all between USM, Charlotte, and La Tech will really be hurting. If any of those three get swept, they can almost kiss their hopes for regular season contention goodbye. They can probably kiss a top six seed goodbye, as well. With so much upper class in the league, these middling teams better take care of business when they can, especially given the quality of some of the best teams (six teams in the top 111 in the RPI). If Rice or ODU stumbles, it opens doors for the rest of the conference to pounce.
This week should be interesting all around the conference, but the Lady Toppers have a significant opportunity. Their RPI will likely drop from playing two bad teams, but they would minimize the damage by winning the games in front of them.
More importantly, WKU can launch itself at least two spots, if not as many as four (if ODU loses twice and MTSU, UAB, and UTEP lose at least once), in the C-USA standings. Losing this week puts WKU nearly out of the conversation for a bye. Sweeping means WKU is halfway home and sitting in bye position with tiebreakers or future match-ups on the teams around them.
WKU plays FAU at 6 PM Central in Diddle. They then get FIU at 2 PM on Saturday afternoon.