Lady Toppers Drop Season Finale and Lose Sixth in a Row, Burned Out By The Lady Flames 84-77
With a blazing 54 point second half, Liberty overcomes an eleven point third quarter deficit to defeat Western by seven.
Here is all that needs to be said about this game: WKU held an 11 point lead with 6:01 left in the third quarter 49-38. From there, Liberty scored 46 points while holding Western to 28. Ultimately, that’s kind of the end of it. But then again, there is more to this story. If you’re just looking at game trends, it was just like the FIU meltdown. However, it felt much different.
Both WKU and Liberty were picked to be closely matched in the preseason rankings. Both teams were expected to win on their home courts. Most people anticipated excitement around the final game of the regular season where two teams would battle out a second close game and challenge each other to finish second behind MTSU.
But as in most predictions only part of the preseason narrative proves true. Both games were highly contested. Both teams were competing for CUSA Tournament standings, just not for second place. WKU was trying to finish in the middle and avoid disaster while Liberty was trying to finish as high as second.
In the first matchup, WKU came back from a 15 point deficit, took a lead in the fourth quarter, and held off Liberty 68-66 to win at Liberty Arena. In the Final game of the regular season, it was nearly the opposite. Liberty, down 11, flew past Western in the fourth quarter, taking a nine point lead and holding on to win by seven at Diddle Arena. As the ESPN+ announcers said, Liberty really took this one as opposed to WKU just melting. Liberty wore out the Lady Tops.
The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers finish the regular season at 15-16 and 6-10 in CUSA. They now have lost six in a row and nine of the last eleven. Instead of near the top, WKU finds themselves in seventh place heading into the CUSA Tournament.
The Liberty University Flames finish the regular season at 16-15 and 11-5 in CUSA. Finishing as winners of nine of their last eleven games headed into conference tournament action. Only Middle Tennessee has a better record over the last eleven games.
Breaking Down This Game
Even with the unexpected return of Acacia Hayes from a devastating knee injury and WKU scoring 77 points, Western could not overcome Liberty’s blazing hot second half shooting. In the third quarter, Liberty shot 9/14 and in the fourth shot 11/13. Liberty only committed six turnovers in the second half versus eleven in the first 20 minutes. That’s just video game stuff.
Unfortunately, this will go down as yet another come-from-ahead loss for the Lady Toppers. Without question, this was the best offensive game since the overtime loss to Sam Houston, and against a much better opponent. The Lady Toppers found ways to grab and hold onto leads after the first three quarters, but came out cold in the fourth and did not score for the first four minutes. During this time, Liberty went on a 9-0 run and took the lead and never looked back.
Liberty was led by Kaliah Henderson’s 23 points and Olivia Trice’s 18 points.
WKU was led by Teresa Faustino’s 18 points, Alexis Mead's 17 points, and Josie Gilvin’s 11 points.
What Went Right against Liberty
Steals - The Lady Toppers snagged 11 steals and were +10 against the Lady Flames. WKU averages double digit steals and did it against a team that likes to play with a medium pace and pound it inside.
Turnovers - Western Kentucky turned Liberty over 17 times in this game. The Flames average 16. WKU only gave the ball to Liberty a fantastic FOUR times in this game, a season low. Wow!!!
Points in Paint - Once again, WKU scored 30 points in the paint but were -6 (36-30) against the Lady Flames. This is a good sign offensively for WKU. Western needs this type of production for the rest of the season.
Three point Shooting Percentage: WKU shot 35% (7-20) while averaging only 29.7% for the season. Again, the offense came back for WKU in this one. Unfortunately, the tough-as-nails defense left.
Points Off Turnovers and Margin- WKU scored 22 points off 17 turnovers. Liberty only scored four points off four WKU turnovers. That is a margin of +18. That’ll do every time. Anytime it’s significantly more points off turnovers than the turnover number, that’s a fairly good conversion rate on those opportunities.
There’s no question WKU looked like its old self against Liberty early. They were aggressive and creating problems before The Flames could settle into its offense and running out for easy buckets. This is now two games in a row that WKU has played extremely well against a good team and controlled the game for nearly three quarters. If WKU can just string four quarters together without wearing out, they would be in business.
Balanced Scoring - Western had four players in double figures (Destiny Salary and Josie Gilvin with 15 each, Teresa Faustino 14 and Alexis Mead with 12 ). Karris Allen added nine points and Odeth Betancourt added eight.
Acacia Hayes played 6 minutes after doctors released her to play earlier this week for the first time since a (clearly minor) knee injury vs. MTSU in early February.
If you look at just these things, you might think that WKU won going away. These are important things for the Lady Toppers to be proud of going into CUSA Tournament this week. After looking absolutely lost offensively against bad teams, WKU pulled out its B to B+ level offense against two very good teams this week. The Lady Tops played like a team that could make a run this week, despite the losses.
What Went Wrong
Keys before the game: “Control Smuda and Hess and not allow others to have big game.” This did not happen as Emma Hess led all scorers with 22, Bella Smuda with 21, Jordan Hodges with 19, and Asia Boone added 9 and Jordan Bailey 7.
Opponent shooting - For the game, Liberty shot 60.4% plus 41.7% from the three point line. That was just part of the story. In the third quarter, The Flames really warmed up shooting 9 of 14 (65 %), 3 of 6 (50%) from three, and 3-of-3 from the free throw line. To make the water hotter for WKU, in the fourth quarter Bella Smuda (4/4) and her Flames teammates set the court on fire, shooting 11 of 13 (84.6%) from the floor, including 1 of 1 (100%) from three and 7 of 8 (87.5) from the free throw line. Ouch!
Fastbreak point margin - 11 to 5 fast break points is not enough. This stat needs to be around a +8 at absolute minimum, especially given turnover margin in this one. Five fast break points allowed defensively is perfectly acceptable, but turning over Liberty 17 times should have resulted in a few more fast break points. Given WKU’s lack of elite quickness, getting out ahead of the opponent for an easy layup is key for extra offense.
Rebounding margin - This has been a negative almost all season as this Lady Topper team does not rebound well. But at -18 (38-20, 30-13 on the defensive glass), WKU was dominated on the boards, starving themselves of possessions, ultimately contributing to the collapse. LU’s offense only had 13 times they were not allowed to finish a possession because of WKU cleaning the glass. You just can’t expect to win when you only finish off 13 possessions cleanly.
Second half - The Lady Toppers led the Lady Flames 15-12 after the first period. WKU extended the lead to 37-30 at the end of the half. Teresa Faustino made a layup to start the third quarter scoring. Liberty scored the next eight cutting the Lady Topper lead to one at 39-38. Showing some heart, the Lady Toppers scored the next ten extending the lead to 11 (49-38) at the six minute mark in the third quarter. The score was 61-54 WKU at the end of the third quarter. All of that work evaporated quickly when another four minute drought saw the WKU lead evaporate and Liberty took a four point lead before Odeth Betancourt made two free throws. That would be as close as WKU got in the end as Liberty outscored WKU 17-14 to create the final margin of seven 84-77.
Missing players in the second half - Josie Gilvin did not play in the second half until 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Acacia Hayes only played six minutes in her first action back in over a month. Shouldn’t she get her “game legs” under her if she’s back? Once again, Greg Collins’ questionable substitution patterns confounded WKU fans. More than one group of people were openly asking, “Where’s Josie?” Big negative here. In a game WKU played well, the same “what the heck are we doing?” questions keep coming up.
Acacia Hayes Should Suit up In Huntsville
Acacia Hayes’ rehabilitation has gone better than expected. This was proven as she got approval from doctors to play and saw limited time (6 minutes) in action against Liberty. She looked rusty, missing badly and making a couple of silly mistakes. Regardless, when Acacia entered the game on Saturday, she received a raucous standing ovation from the Hilltopper fans, a nice moment. She energized her teammates while she was in the game, although she missed her only shot. Acacia did get a steal which led to a Western fast break basket.
Understating the obvious, Acacia has been a key player all season. Her return will definitely be a boost to the team and fan base. Acacia still leads the team in scoring (14.5 ppg). Hopefully, she will be able to perform at a level that elevates the team to their full capability during conference play starting Wednesday.
Without question, an Acacia Hayes at 100% gives WKU a chance to beat anyone in Conference USA, including MTSU.
The CUSA Race Dynamics
The current CUSA standings show MTSU (26-4 16-0 CUSA) will is the number one seed. A heavy favorite coming into the season, Middle Tennessee has not disappointed their fans with their stellar play. In the upcoming CUSA Tournament, if MTSU doesn’t ultimately cut down nets March 16, it will be the most shocking conference tournament loss since perhaps before most of the team in CUSA joined the league.
Women’s Tournament play will start on Tuesday evening with (8) UTEP (11-18 6-10 CUSA) and (9) Sam Houston (7-21 2-14 CUSA). The winner of this game will face (1) MTSU in the early game on Wednesday, March 13. With the win on Saturday, (2) Liberty (16-15 11-5 CUSA) earned the second seed to rematch with (7) WKU (15-15 6-10 CUSA) in Wednesday’s afternoon game.
Play continues on Thursday morning with (4) Louisiana Tech (13-18 7-9 CUSA) and (5) Jacksonville State (12-16 7-9 CUSA). The afternoon game will see (3) Florida International (20-10 11-5 CUSA) face (6) New Mexico State (12-17 6-10 CUSA). The winner of FIU and NMSU gets the winner of WKU and Liberty in the semifinals.
Semifinals will start on Friday at 5:30pm and 8:00pm. If WKU is still alive, they will face the winner of FIU/NMSU at 8 PM on ESPN+. The championship game will be on Saturday at 4:30pm on CBS Sports Network.
The CUSA regular season races are over. There are a few surprises in the final standings, and some teams moved several spots on the final day of action. It is time for the final sprint to the finish, and who knows what happens next? Anything can happen in this tournament, except maybe MTSU losing. Then again, MTSU (and other massive favorites in the past) must play well, avoid a letdown, and take everyone’s best shot on the chin and keep going. That’s a lot of pressure.
All of that being said, WKU can win if they return to their play earlier in the season. They didn’t get the best seed, but frankly they have about as reasonable of a road as they could possibly ask for.
Next Time Out
The Western Kentucky Lady Hilltoppers (15-16, 6-10 CUSA) try to halt a six-game losing streak on Wednesday, March 13, 2024 at Propst Arena in Huntsville, Alabama. They will play the Liberty University Lady Flames (16-15, 10-4 CUSA) at 2pm.
If WKU loses before the conference championship game, it will be just WKU’s fourth losing season (and the second of the Greg Collins era) since 1981-82. In his sixth year as a direct heir from Michelle Clark-Heard’s six year one time SBC-winning and three time CUSA winning coaching staff, Greg Collins is seeking his first CUSA regular or postseason title and only his second championship appearance.
For anyone who is not able to make it to Huntsville, the game will be on ESPN+ at 2:00 pm CT. We will be there live tweeting and reacting to just about every second of CUSA Tournament action! You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!