Lady Toppers: What WKU Must Do to Break Through to the Big Dance
If the Lady Toppers can find a way to win it all in Frisco, it would be the first time since 2018 under Michelle Clark-Heard
The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers are heading to Frisco and looking for their most success in five seasons.
WKU Head Coach Greg Collins (and some of the staff) were a part of the program. Ivy Woodcock (Brown) actually played on that team before finding her way into the coaching ranks. Collins was Michelle Clark-Heard’s “yang” to her “yin”.
As a duo, Greg Collins and Michelle Clark-Heard were unstoppable. As I was reminded this week, during their reign as 1A and 1B with the Lady Tops, they never missed a postseason. Even after inheriting what was at the time a program-worst 9-20 record, MCH and Collins immediately saw success and didn’t back off of it while they were together.
If you want full comments on the Greg Collins era and a summary of what happened heading into the Conference USA Tournament, check out my other article, Lady Tops Claim 2nd Seed. Suffice it to say that Greg Collins has not seen the same level of success since taking over as the head coach. But here we are, Topper fans. After an inauspicious start to the season, the Lady Tops have ultimately landed the two seed and should be considered the second or third favorite to win Conference USA.
If we’re providing an unbiased ranking, it would be:
Middle Tennessee
Rice
WKU
UTEP
La Tech
Everybody else
I think it would be fair to say Rice is a slight favorite over WKU, given Rice handled WKU quite easily late in the season. However, the Lady Tops did beat Rice in Houston early in the season, so those two should feel like a very even matchup if they were to face each other in the semifinals.
The main thing WKU accomplished was avoiding MTSU, who is currently ranked in the polls. They’re the clear favorite, but now WKU can run all of the way to the finals before having to worry about the Blue Raiders, if they even make the finals.
So with the background laid, it’s a huge opportunity. What does WKU need to do to get to the finals and hopefully beat whoever they face?
Keys to Winning Conference USA
Hold Your Own Down Low
Without question, the Achilles heel of WKU Basketball since Crystal Kelly left The Hill in the 2000s has been size. It’s especially troubling this season. Karris Allen’s presence is helping. Josey Gilvin provides some size at her position. Other than that, WKU is either short or petite at every other position, and really every position on the court does not have a consistent size advantage depending on who comes into the game. When Western loses, somebody is dominating them inside, whether it is penetration or a 6’3+” girl is posting up deep, catching, and laying it up. Western can also suffer from interior passing. If WKU can just not be horrendous down low, they should be fine elsewhere.
Make Shots
It’s simple, and it feels like a Rick Stansbury quote, but Western is dead last in Conference USA shooting the basketball. They do create tons of opportunity with offensive rebounds, and they force turnovers with their press. That’s where they make up for their generally anemic shooting offense. However, this team has a ton of potential, and if they could just shoot low 40s in percentage every game, they would be much more formidable. WKU has had several games where they were just snakebitten and could not score enough despite an opponent shooting 20 less shots than they did.
Turnover Margin
WKU is 1-6 when they tie or outright lose the turnover margin. When they win it by any margin, they are 16-6. Several of the games that were close in turnover margin tended to be more poor performances. Why does it matter so much? Western is so deficient with their shooting, size, and defensive rebounding that they MUST win the turnover battle handily in order to have enough possessions to outscore the opponent. There are two ways the Tops can try to combat this issue: One is to ramp up the pressure, but another way they could protect themselves is slow down just a bit offensively, take care of the ball, and make sure they get a decent shot and chase after every rebound.
Macey Blevins and Karris Allen
These two ladies are in my opinion two of the most impactful Lady Toppers. They move the needle. Karris has really come on lately. I’ll be honest: I didn’t even know who she was until February, but I quickly looked her up and got to get an idea of who she is as a basketball player. Karris is long and tall and can shoot from anywhere. She reminds me of Ivy Brown in terms of her skillset, but she has more of a muscular frame than Ivy did. She’s probably a little more quick than Ivy, although Ivy was way more polished fundamentally down low.
Macey is a player who has massively underachieved this season. She has also shown some life late in the season, and I think if she can just shoot decently and contribute in other areas on the floor, she provides some size with versatility that WKU desperately needs. Although listed at 5’10”, she plays a couple of inches taller. She can shoot over most defenders and has a really pretty release on her shot. I picked these two, because I think they have the most potential to impact the Lady Tops in Frisco.
Play Well
That seems silly, but as one of the favorites, sometimes doing what you do is the greatest oppotunity to give yourself a real shot to win. If WKU comes out against North Texas or UTSA and gets down by 10 or 15, obviously that’s going back to old habits from early in the season. If WKU shoots under 35%, the Tops are a .500 team. When they shoot better than that, they are 12-7. Again, just play well, Tops. They’re more than capable. They have been in it or won against every team in Conference USA. Just play well. Against Middle, hopefully they play some decent defense if they play them in the championship. Fortunately for WKU, North Texas lost to UAB, who narrowly defeated UNT, providing the Tops with an opportunity to play a 10 seed to get to the conference semifinals. But in order to get to the semis, WKU must, once again, play well. Against Rice or UTSA, they must play well.
Prediction
Fortunately for WKU, everything has gone right to this point. There’s no way Lady Topper fans or even staff could’ve realistically expected a 2 seed at any point in the year until probably early February. Then the Tops still has to execute to earn it.
They did that, and now the gift of an upset has given them what should be an easy win in the semifinals. They better not treat it that way, but it ultimately should be.
Rice also draws difficulty with a UTSA team that squeaked by bottom seed FAU. UTSA should give Rice a hard time. UTSA lost by 2 on the road and handled Rice by double digits in San Antonio. Perhaps UTSA is the perfect setup to take the Owls down, or at least to give them a tough game.
Regardless of who WKU faces in the quarters, semis, and hopefully finals, WKU should have a chance. They certainly should be slightly favored over Rice and a solid favorite over UTSA and should be overwhelming favorites over UAB.
First of all, the 2 seed alone is a great step in the right direction. But WKU definitely needs at least a semifinals appearance to consider this season a step forward. Losing in the quarters will immediately put Coach Collins back in the line of fire. So it’s semis or bust for him in terms of fan happiness.
If WKU could make it to the finals, though…
Man it would put this program in a wonderful position heading into next year regardless of what happened in the finals.
If WKU could win the Conference USA Championship…
Wow. That would completely validate the Greg Collins era, and it would likely come at the hands of Middle Tennessee.
That would be incredible. Can and will it happen? Jeez. That’s a tough call. There are so many factors.
I think you have to predict WKU beats UAB. Losing to them would be a disaster. So it’s down to whether I think WKU wins the semifinal. First, if it’s UTSA, bet big on WKU. If it’s Rice, be optimistic but cautious. WKU will probably be a very slight favorite in that case. But I say flip a coin. Truly 50/50.
But here’s what I predict. I like this team. I like their direction. I like that they have a plan and an identity. I also like their potential. If they would just shoot the ball well, they would be an elite team.
I say they beat UAB. I say UTSA squeaks past Rice. WKU beats UTSA. I ultimately believe MTSU makes it to the final. They’re ranked. They play clean, fundamental basketball, and they have multiple players that can go off on a particular night. They’re basically an older, bigger WKU assuming Collins can keep his core together for next season and help them improve their shooting.
My prediction is WKU makes it to the finals against MTSU. I think Western is going to hold its own, and heck, they might win, but I think logic and timing really probably means Middle will win. I hate to say that, because trust me, I would love to see those Little Pony ladies gallop straight back to Smurfreesboro. And I would love to watch Rick Insell and his son cry into each other’s arms in despair.
They deserve it.
That being said, MTSU is an offensively powerful team. Unless Western can find a way to stop them (87 ppg given up vs Middle in two games; 68.8 season average), it’s going to be awfully hard to outscore an opponent pushing the 90s in production. That would be an incredible game to watch, but I wouldn’t like WKU’s chances considering Western has a serious issue with shooting.
It’s just a bad matchup for the Tops. I think WKU is good enough to compete with Middle, but the matchup tilts way towards the Blue Raiders. I’ll take Middle in the final over Western in a tight one. Please prove me wrong, Tops.
And please, fans, keep in mind that a finals appearance would be huge for this program. That hasn’t happened since 2018. It sucks that a finals appearance is an improvement, but since it is, let’s see a final appearance. If they get to the semis and hold their own and lose to Rice, that’s fairly acceptable, too. That would match Collins’ best performance. However, a finals appearance or championship would be way ahead of schedule.
WKU should be in the championship fighting for a bid next year. The idea that it’s likely to happen this year is phenomenal, and Collins should be commended for his efforts this season with a roster that needs an above average offensive and defensive post presence.
Be excited for the Lady Tops. They are favorites to make a conference final in a year they were picked sixth! Check out Towel Rack on Twitter for updates on men’s and women’s basketball during Conference USA Tournament!
GO TOPS!