Lady Tops: CUSA Tournament First Round Preview- Western Kentucky vs Liberty, Round 3
Will The Flames stay hot or will The Lady Toppers snuff out their fire?
Rubber Match, Sugar Game, Best out of Three, Tiebreaker, Sudden Death, Win or Go Home
Call it what you want to but these two team who split their conference games this season will clash on the court in Rocket Town in just a few hours. WKU was down big to Liberty, but came back and stole one in Lynchburg. With WKU just returning Acacia Hayes for six minutes against Liberty in her very first game back, WKU was up big on Liberty, only to have Liberty shoot 70 percent for the second half and take home seven point victory.
Given the big picture and the Hayes injury quotient, who is to say how this one will go? If WKU is at full strength and Liberty comes back down to Earth offensively, who is to say the favorite? This one is a big one. Really, it’s the only one that really matters. Who pulls it off?
Overview
Liberty University Flames (16-15 11-5 CUSA) come into this game after a blazing fourth quarter in Bowling Green just a few afternoons ago and red hot, winning 10 of their last 12 games. Western Kentucky Lady Toppers (15-16 6-10 CUSA) come in losers of their last six games. Each of these losses can be traced back to a four minute period in each fourth quarter, where WKU could not score and the other teams could not miss. Unfortunately, “feast or famine” had kind of been the WKU way of life this season. WKU has had 30 point quarters, but then also had games where they didn’t get well into the 30s until the fourth quarter.
What will be different this time? It is tournament time, baby! Anything can happen. Other than conference record, these teams are evenly matched. When each team lost on their home courts, it can be traced back to four minutes of trouble late in the game. More than likely, something like that will happen again. Who can be the most solid, and can WKU hold its own down low in order to allow its productive guards to overcome the Liberty front line?
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: - Acacia Hayes - 14.5 points per game
RPG: Odeth Betancourt - 4.7 rebounds per game
APG: Alexis Mead - 4.1 assists per game
SPG: Alexis Mead- 2.0 steals per game
BPG: Caitlin Staley - 1.4 blocks per game
Liberty Stat Leaders
PPG: Bella Smuda - 15.0 points per game
RPG: Bella Smuda - 9.7 rebounds per game
APG: Jordan Hodges - 4.5 assists per game
SPG: Asia Boone - 1.2 steals per game
BPG: Bella Smuda - 2.3 blocks per game
WKU Team Stats
64.5 PPG
39.2 % FG
29.7% 3PT
33.1 RPG
12.6 APG
10.9 SPG
15.0 TO
Liberty Team Stats
65.8 PPG
42.4% FG
33.1% 3PT
39.5 RPG
14.3 APG
5.0 SPG
16.3 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
To repeat, Western Kentucky must contain Bella Smuda and Emma Hess. Bella is 6’6” Junior Center and Emma is a 5’11” Junior Guard. WKU must contain these two in some fashion and not let anyone else score more than their average. In the last match up a few days ago Emma led all scorers with 22 points, Bella with 21 and nine rebounds, Jordan Hodges 19 points and eight assists, and Asia Boone with nine points. All above their averages for the season.
The Lady Toppers need to win the paint battle. While there has been improvement, WKU is still missing too many layups, especially in the fourth quarter. Points in paint was dominated by Liberty has dominated both games 32-22 in the first meeting and 38-30 in the second matchup.
WKU needs to take better jump shots. Too many are off balance or the player is not squared to the basket. Shooters need to be confident in their abilities, but know what they do poorly and perhaps not have two of your worst shooters cranking nearly the most threes on the team. WKU needs to shoot 33% or better.
It is tournament time. WKU needs to do what they do best, fix some weak spots, and not have long scoring lapses. Do not slow down. Sticky defense leads to steals and easier buckets.
The Lady Toppers’ identity is annoying, hard nosed defense that creates the most live ball turnovers (10.9 steals per game) of any team in CUSA. So, Western Kentucky must find a way to force their style of play, their identity, on the other team the whole game.
The next question will be, “Will Acacia Hayes play much?” She played only six minutes a few days ago after being out for the last 12 games. Was that enough for her to be ready to play more on Wednesday afternoon? No matter what, the team needs to be spurned on by her presence and score in the 70s. Barring a 25+ point outbreak by one or two players, the scoring needs to be balanced and everyone must be ready to play as there is less margin for error, and the Tops are playing another quality opponent. The Lady Tops must play good basketball to win going forward. They can’t throw out a C+ effort and expect to beat anyone. However, having Acacia Hayes (if ready to go) allows WKU room to not have to be perfect. However, against Liberty, the Tops must play well. Liberty is too good and too big to mess around with.
Liberty’s Keys to Victory
Liberty has been a solid team in the CUSA regular season. They started a little slow in non-conference and even a little bit into conference play, but ultimately achieved their regular season goal. Now they just need to play like they have most of the games this season and find ways to win. They proved on Saturday against Western when they had to shoot 87% in the fourth quarter to beat the Lady Toppers. Now, what happens when they aren’t piping hot? Can they stop WKU’s guards?
All of that to say…Liberty has proven itself to be the better offensive team. It is their job to execute and not fall prey to WKU’s ability to generate clusters of easy baskets off live ball turnovers. If WKU got lucky the first time at full strength, can they do it again when their season is on the line? Will Liberty impose its size and will on the Lady Toppers making it a long night for the Lady Tops.
Bonus Key from the Editor: WKU’s guards must overcome Liberty’s post players
Bella Smuda is a monster. Emma Hess is very good. Liberty has other size. WKU’s frontcourt tends to disappear. Freshman center Caitlin Staley rarely scores more than a bucket or two. Experienced center Odeth Betancourt has played well for WKU at times this year, but has only scored in double figures three times despite playing about 20 minutes per game on average. Karris Allen is one of the few other “true” forwards, and she has not found double figures since November, when she did it three times.
So ultimately, it’s either the Tops needs to surprise with some post scoring or more likely, WKU guard/wings like Alexis Mead, Destiny Salary, Teresa Faustino, Josie Gilvin, and Acacia Hayes all need to contribute something. If all five of those girls really make a positive impact on the game, watch out for a WKU upset. If very few of them do anything of note, where does WKU get enough to overcome Liberty’s size?
Conclusion
Hilltopper fans need to get to Huntsville and cheer them on, or if that is not possible, the game will be on ESPN+ at 2:00 pm CT, Wednesday March 13. If you can’t make it Wednesday, if they beat Liberty, can you come down Friday? Can you join us Thursday when the guys starting playing? The point is, get down to Huntsville when you can!
This game will come down to WKU making more shots and scoring more points than they have in the past few weeks. Western fell just short a few days ago to the Flames late in the game. Western must try to keep Liberty around their average points (65) in this game. Anything well into the 70s and Liberty has way more of a chance. If we can see the WKU defense keep Liberty from easy, wide open buckets, the Tops will have a great chance to surprise Liberty.
This is a tough matchup for WKU. But I’m going to call my shot a little bit: I see The Lady Toppers putting out Liberty’s Flame in this one 72-70 in another gut wrenching battle. The return of Acacia Hayes is too much of a momentum shift towards WKU. Even without Acacia playing well, WKU has hung right with Liberty in both games. Imagine if Acacia and company play well. It will then be on Liberty to keep up with the Tops.
There’s almost no way WKU just comes in destroys a really good team. However, this is a live one, and just because Liberty has the pretty seed and all the momentum while WKU has very little themselves does not mean that WKU is a one-and-done.
Tune in Wednesday and let’s see what happens.
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