Lady Tops: How the Lady Toppers can Win in March Despite Losing Their Leading Scorer
A breakdown of what the ladies need to do in the absence of Acacia Hayes.
Acacia Hayes, sophomore guard for the WKU Lady Toppers, had high hopes coming into the 2023-2024 season. Named to the C-USA All-Freshmen Team, C-USA Freshman of the Week twice, the first WKU freshman to lead the team in scoring since Lady Topper legend Crystal Kelly in 2004-05, Acacia’s 371 points were the sixth most scored by a WKU freshman in program history.
In 2024, Acacia leads the team in Scoring averaging 15.1 points per game and free throw percentage (84.6%). An all-around threat, she is one of only six players on this year’s team to average greater than 30% from the three point line and is one of WKU’s better perimeter defenders.
Out of 22 games played, Acacia scored 16 points or more in 13 games. She tallied 20 points or more in five games with a high of 29 points against #16 Kansas State in November. Then on Saturday February 3, 2024, during the game at dreaded rival MTSU, Acacia went down with what seems to be a season ending knee injury. We believe it could be something like a torn meniscus, possibly partially torn ligament in the knee, or something else with a 2-4 month recovery time frame, although nothing other than “out indefinitely with a knee injury”. Translation: Let’s just assume she’s out for the year and if she by some miracle comes back, that’s a wonderful problem to figure out.
What has happened since the injury?
Immediately following the injury, the Lady Toppers won 2 games at home, dropping La Tech 64-56 (after being down 19) and Jax State 54-45. They found a way to win games against teams lower in the Conference USA standings, which when evaluating tiebreaker scenarios for seeding could prove very important.
However, since squeaking by two teams the Lady Tops should beat, they dropped three in a row to put the Tops in fourth place with no more room for error.
WKU’s offense has significantly less pace since Acacia’s injury, and Destiny Salary has not nearly been the same player. Is that correlated or is it related to other circumstance? We don’t know. But the Lady Toppers are much different, more slow than when Acacia Hayes is in the lineup.
With this outlook, WKU has a tough game at La Tech, who gave them trouble last time, and then play FIU, a team they lost fairly routinely to (L by 10 @ FIU) and a team they needed a miracle against in Liberty (W by 2 @ Liberty) early in the conference season.
Wins:
Key factors in win against La Tech
Turnovers - WKU committed nine fewer than La Tech. (12-21)
Points off Turnovers - WKU scored six more points off those turnovers. (20-14)
Fast Break Points - WKU scored 13 more fast break points than LaTech. (20-7)
Steals - WKU snagged 18, while LaTech only had seven.
Rebounding - WKU out rebounded LaTech 33-32 (extremely rare for WKU to win a rebounding battle this season).
Points in Paint - WKU 30 - LaTech 20
Key factors in win against Jax State
Turnovers - WKU committed 11 fewer turnovers than Jax State. (12-23)
Points off Turnovers - WKU scored 10 more points off those turnovers than JaxState. (16-6)
Steals - WKU had nine more steals than JaxState. (13-4)
Points in Paint - WKU 22 - Jax State 14.
3 Losses (UTEP, NMSU, MTSU)
Key factors in last 3 Losses (Statistics combined)
Points in Paint - WKU was outscored 58 - 59 by these 3 opponents.
Rebounds - WKU was Outrebounded by 10.
Fast Break Points - Lady Toppers were outscored by nine
Steals Margin - Opponents had more total steals
Turnover Margin - WKU committed more turnovers than their opponents.
3 pt shooting - WKU averaged 28.7% from the three point line.
Shooting - WKU averaged 37% shooting during the losses to UTEP, NMSU, and MTSU.
Conclusions:
What can WKU do to win games without Acacia Hayes? One thing Coach Greg Collins has said repeatedly is this team has heart and grit. In that respect, this team has never been in question. This felt like a special team chemistry well into January and then it mysteriously became more questionable out of nowhere.
In his weekly presser Monday, Coach Collins gave an update on Acacia. He said that she is healing, that her multiple forms of rehab were working, and she was feeling better. He was proud of Acacia for being actively engaged on the bench during games. Translation: She’s almost definitely not coming back.
When asked about road struggles, Coach Collins said, “We have not played well enough on the road to win games.” Collins said that whether they were playing with a lead or from behind. They just have not been consistent enough.
Coach Collins continued, “The team needs more consistency on offense and defense. Our defense has been pretty good for most of the games. But we have lapses, and teams seem to take advantage of those lapses right now. Our offense has been the most inconsistent. We must find a way to score more points. We need better, more confident post passing. He said, “We want to play inside out. But for whatever reason, the ball is not entering the post enough. That is something we will continue to work on.”
Key Points to Future Winning
Looking at the statistics, here are a few keys to the Lady Toppers’ future success:
Be positive but not arrogant, not down nor over-confident.
Be aggressive, but not careless.
Rebound better: Box out and outwork your opponent for the ball. Follow players shooting layups to get an easy put back. Something has to change. WKU has the size, but massively struggles on the boards.
Take better shots. This includes shooting form, ball arc and rotation, and confidence. Sometimes, the Lady Tops get open looks and just aren’t set. Against MTSU, the Tops looked skittish offensively. WKU shoots the second most three pointers in CUSA, but shoots one of the lower percentages in all of CUSA from behind the three point arc. Clearly something must change there, and it almost certainly needs to come from Collins and staff encouraging WKU’s players to take a little more time and be a little more aggressive attempting to enter the lane.
Steal and turnover margin must be better. It is part of the Greg Collins/Michelle Clark-Heard identity. When that suffers, the team suffers. WKU’s best teams in recent memory have stifled the opponent by just not allowing them to have enough possessions.
Increase points off turnover margin. When you turn a team over, you must make them pay. There is nothing wrong with driving to the rim and scoring an easy basket or drawing a foul.
Draw more fouls. Commit fewer. This has been another issue this season. The Tops need to be strategic about if and when they foul.
Remember fundamentals: Sometimes, the Lady Toppers have massive swings in momentum. They are well-coached in many ways fundamentally, but sometimes they forget their principles and allow massive swings in momentum.
Communicate and encourage each other: We have seen tangible infighting within the Lady Toppers this season, something you rarely are able to 100% verify. However, it has happened, and whatever mess that happens behind the scenes needs to be cleaned up and fixed when the time comes to put up or shut up.
Feed off the WKU crowd. Know that fans are at the games supporting their team and school. Although the Lady Topper crowds haven’t been that impressive, they have been active and have gotten pretty loud at times, helping spur the Tops on a little bit. Use the crowd, whether it’s a small contingent at La Tech, two home crowds to finish the season, or the contingent that will be Huntsville cheering the Lady Tops on hoping for an improbable run to a championship.
Final Conclusion
This Lady Toppers team has the potential and abilities to finish up the season by winning games that Vegas (if they’re betting) and computer experts think are impossible, just by improving a few things. There are plenty of areas for improvement that can be fixed with some careful tweaking. In reality, the Lady Toppers need to win one of the last three to ensure that they stay out of the seven or eight position, or they could have an extremely short staying in Huntsville.
In the upcoming CUSA Tournament, seeds eight and nine will play on the first day and are the only teams required to win four games to win a championship. The winner will take on the number one seed the following morning. The seven seed would play the two seed in the semifinals on this same day. After being in the top three in the CUSA standings for much of the season, the Lady Toppers currently sit in fourth. And now with the next four teams sitting one game behind, there is little margin for error for the Lady Toppers’ last three regular season games.
The Toppers are on the road Wednesday February 28th to face La Tech, who sit sixth in the CUSA standings. LaTech will be seeking revenge on their home court, especially after holding a 19 point lead and losing to WKU by eight. They’ll be hoping to pull even with the Lady Toppers and tie the season at one game apiece.
The Lady Toppers will close out the regular season with back to back home games against current second place FIU Saturday, March 2nd at 1pm, and current third place Liberty Saturday, March 9th at 2pm.
Fans, Alumni, and Students of WKU need to support our teams during this last 3 game push. It is time to fill Diddle Arena and “Stand UP and Cheer for Dear Old Western.”
CUSA Basketball Tournament begins Tuesday, March 12th and the champions will be crowned on Saturday March 16th. Check out CUSA Basketball Tournament for more information and stay tuned to the Towel Rack the RedOut Podcast for comprehensive conference tournament coverage!