Lady Tops: Keys to Victory at Kansas

Western Kentucky draws a really tough matchup at bubble team, Kansas

The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers have earned a bid into the WNIT Tournament, earning Conference USA’s two seed and pretty much guaranteeing an appearance in some kind of postseason tournament for their efforts. Well, due to MTSU winning the conference tournament title, the Lady Tops have landed in the field of 64 of the WNIT, and they draw the Kansas Jayhawks on the road.

Western Kentucky (19-13, 2nd C-USA) started off roughly this season at a 3-6 clip (including an 18 point road loss at potential second round matchup Missouri) in their non-conference portion of the schedule. Despite perhaps not having the numbers to back it up, WKU had a tough non-conference schedule, especially for a young team. WKU did not have very many home games to start the year, and they didn’t really have a “gimme” game that they could definitely know they would win.

They also had to travel, going to Cornell in Ithaca, New York, and California Baptist (who knew they had Baptists?). Even Ball State is not an easy road trip, and it’s certainly a quality road opponent at the end of the day who ended up being yet another WNIT entrant on the Lady Tops’s schedule.

So for those that don’t know—which is probably almost everybody that doesn’t deeply follow Big 12 women’s basketball—Kansas (19-11, 9-9 Big 12) was a bubble team assumed to be in the field by many who happened to fall below the cut line come Selection Sunday. Perhaps betrayed by the archaic RPI, if there was an official NET ranking for women’s basketball, Kansas would have finished approximately 20 spots higher than their 58 in the RPI.

Regardless, they are certainly one of the favorites to win the WNIT, and they get an undersized WKU at home in Lawrence, Kansas.

To say this is David vs. Goliath would not be hyperbole. In terms of historic prowess, WKU actually firmly takes the cake. But in today’s college basketball sense, Kansas is possibly the worst physical matchup of anyone WKU has played all year. WKU has one player over 6’ tall (Odeth Betancourt), and that one person averaged 7 minutes per game and did not play in all of WKU’s games. WKU will trot out four players around 6’ tall and a 5’5” player to start. Kansas will presumably start 5’7”, 5’8”, 5’11”, 5’11”, and 6’6”. Any subs will make them taller. All of the starters average near double figures.

The 6’6” player (#1 Taiyanna Jackson) averages 15 points, 13 rebounds, three blocks, and 1.5 steals per game. Not only is she huge, but she’s active and athletic. That matchup alone probably means WKU will not be able to do anything inside the paint on either end.

So yeah, let’s be honest:

WKU will need something extraordinary to beat Kansas, but anything is possible.

What can WKU do to give themselves a chance to win in Lawrence on Friday?

Keys to Victory at Kansas

Have Fun and Compete

You have absolutely nothing to lose, and you should proud of what you have accomplished. So cut loose, get after it, and have some fun. This is a terrible matchup, but so what? Walk in there like you’re better than them, convince yourself you are, and go play like a champion and see where the cards fall. Enjoy one of the meccas of basketball!

Crank It

That’s a huge part of what you do. You’ve set program records for attempts and makes. Don’t stop now. Don’t take idiotic shots, but hey if you like it, take it and we’ll let you know if we hated it after. But also, don’t fall in complete love with the three, because you still need to have some balance and find a way to get inside.

Bludgeon the Behemoth

Taiyanna Jackson is a huge threat. The only way to mess with someone bigger than you is get them off of their game. Try to bother her. Get her annoyed or get her thinking about something other than basketball. She can finish with either hand, so be mindful she’s probably going up with the hand closest to the baseline. And she shoots 55-60% from FT, so if you’re not essential to the team, slap her if you don’t like the situation and let’s see how it works out at the line. Sometimes she’s just going to out-position you and get an easy bucket. Just minimize it and let’s try to get to their bench at all, because the quality goes way down after she takes a breather.

Force 20 or More Turnovers

Fortunately, this is an absolute strength for WKU under Greg Collins. After looking into this matchup a little bit, I am calming down some. WKU can win, but they’re going to need some things to go right in a big way to overcome the size in the post. One way to do that is to force bigger players, especially bigger players who turn the ball over pretty often, to run and be forced to make good decisions over good defense. Fortunately for WKU, Kansas turns the ball over nearly 16 times per game. That’s actually an open door that could render some opportunity for WKU. If Western could force 20 or more, that would be a huge opportunity to create some extra possessions.

Guard the Guards

The other concern I have for WKU defensively is matching up athletically with the two guards for Kansas. I think Western may be able to handle some things at the 3 and 4 position. WKU has a lot of depth and a lot of versatility at these positions. However, two of Kansas’ five starters are tough to figure out exactly how WKU can guard them and keep them at bay. Wyvette Mayberry and Zakiyah Franklin are 5’7” and 5’8”. Acacia Hayes is 5’8”, but she has a very slight frame. Alexis Mead is 5’5” (maybe smaller). Hope Sivori is 5’5”. Teresa Faustino is 5’9” and a good defender. She brings a bigger body than any of the other options, but she is not as explosive offensively. So how does WKU handle this conundrum? Zakiyah Franklin shoots a high percentage from three but doesn’t take more than a couple attempts per game. She’s more of a driver. Mayberry shoots more outside, but is not as lethal. They’re both extremely dangerous and provide good enough size that WKU will be at a disadvantage somewhere because of these to. And speaking of size, if either of these girls are subbed at all, the subs only get bigger.

Prediction

Honestly, I’ve talked myself off of the ledge in terms of, “How the heck could we even possibly win?” However, I’m still Greg Collins saw this matchup, looks at a couple details, and goes, “Well, crap.” But as you break it down, there are some positives and some things that could be exploited here.

Kansas is huge. I get that. That will probably determine the outcome of the game. However, if WKU is going to win, they need to make some inroads somewhere else. A great way to do that would be shooting decently offensively. If WKU could shoot 45% from the floor, a tall task, they definitely could pull an upset. Keep in mind women’s basketball is played at a lower percentage shooting than men’s basketball. If the Tops shoot 40% or under, I see a really difficult path to victory. I think the way WKU gets there is by shooting well outside and making responsible decisions.

Another way is if the 2-4 position can produce and do some damage. That is where WKU has some advantage and versatility, or at least on any given day, WKU is comparable size, skill, and agility wise.

A major strength for WKU is depth. Kansas is not remotely deep. They hardly play any players besides their starters. Their starters have each played 800+ minutes. Everyone else has played no more than 494 minutes. Heck, one of the girls that did get minutes off the bench was injured in January, so even more of the minutes were taken by starters after she went down. That is a huge disparity from starters to the bench. Can WKU wear the Jayhawks down over time? That could be an interesting possibility late in the game. Can WKU hang around enough to pounce when Kansas gets tired?

Also, watch out for turnovers. If WKU can force 25 or more turnovers (not impossible), they would really be creating a huge amount of extra possessions to make up for the inevitable issues on the defensive glass and the block on both ends.

I would love to pick my Lady Toppers. Trust me. I love me some Lady Toppers, and I think they deserve just as much attention as the men. Yet we clamor to go see .500 basketball and barely twitch a nose at quality women’s basketball inside Diddle Arena every year. I wonder if people realize or care that the women’s team has been the best team in Diddle Arena the past decade. There may have been two or three years that the men’s team was a little bit better than the women. Otherwise, the Lady Toppers have been the ones bringing home the hardware, while the men have been leaving skidmarks in their underwear.

I digress.

The Lady Toppers deserve your attention. Tune in to the Big 12 network. Tune in to ESPN+. This could be a good game, and winning would be a huge accomplishment against a top 60 (58) Power Five team.

That being said, I just don’t see this going the way of the Lady Toppers. Unfortunately, size has killed WKU this season. Even when they’re playing well, running into size, especially size with skill, that just spells “really bad matchup” for WKU. Kansas may not be the deepest, and certainly beyond their starters, they’re probably not the best team WKU has faced this season. But the matchup is just really bad, and their top five are excellent.

I’m going to have to go with Kansas in this one. Their offense is good enough and so is their defense. WKU is going to hopefully give them a tough time, but on the road, I see this one likely to end as a loss by double digits.

Ugh. I hate to be a bummer.

But I’ll take Kansas 69-Western Kentucky 57.