Lady Tops: Keys to Winning the Conference USA Title Game in a 100 Miles of Hate Clash

WKU is the clear underdog, but the Tops looked the better team Friday night. Who takes home the hardware?

Western Kentucky women’s basketball is on the precipice of being a complete year ahead of schedule. Frankly, with MTSU being a ranked opponent and the Tops being picked sixth in the preseason polls, you could easily argue winning the conference tournament championship should have been two years out for WKU.

But here we are, and WKU has one more monumental task to go. WKU has not sniffed the Conference USA title game since winning it in 2018 with Michelle Clark-Heard (and Greg Collins as second in command).

The Conference USA two seed, who but one seeded and heavily favored Middle Tennessee should stand in the way of glory? It’s beautiful, really.

Each other’s nemesis since Y2K or so, MTSU and WKU have battled for supremacy in both the Sun Belt and Conference USA for years. For the most part, either Western or MTSU or both have been involved in deciding who takes the crown.

MTSU Head Coach Rick Insell has had 13 title game appearances in slightly less than two decades at Middle with eight conference tournament wins. But Western has won five conference titles since Rick’s career began at MTSU in the mid-2000s, as well. Middle has been great and WKU has been very good lately.

And of course anyone who knows a little about WKU Women’s Basketball knows WKU was one of the best programs in the first couple of decades of Women’s College Basketball, making three Final Fours, including a National Championship appearance in the early 1990s.

This season, MTSU has been flirting with the Top 25 despite a mysterious two losses in a row in the middle of conference play. Without those two losses, MTSU would have gone undefeated in C-USA play and would probably be ranked inside the top 20 and a lock for the NCAA Tournament regardless of this outcome. Unfortunately for them, those two losses have put them on the NCAA Tournament bubble according to ESPN’s Women’s Bracketology. Charlie Creme has MTSU slotted as a 10 seed despite a record with four losses and wins against several quality teams in and out of conference.

WKU started out with a 3-6 non-conference record, playing a decent but not incredibly difficult schedule. But once conference play started, WKU turned on the jets, surprising everyone and establishing themselves as the second best team in Conference USA.

Middle has played two tough games to get to the title game, playing their toughest possible path. WKU drew two teams that upset their better opponent. Despite the upset by UAB over UNT in the first round game, the Tops still had a battle, going down to the final seconds, winning 71-67. Then WKU drew UTSA, who upset Rice, pulling away in the second half and buying some rest by playing a couple of players that don’t always get a ton of minutes. Most notably was #25 Jordan Smith, who hasn’t played since late February at UAB. She came in and nailed two 3’s to put the game away for the Lady Tops.

So WKU has had the most ideal path that was realistically possible. Other than obviously facing the toughest test in the entire conference, WKU has had a dream scenario play out to get here. MTSU has had to play against a tougher road, playing a few of their players the entire game at least once in their two games. What energy can each of these teams bring, and how do tired legs affect either team?

Without question, on even footing, MTSU probably wins 80% of the time, at least. However, WKU has the slight upperhand in terms of atrition. Perhaps we can expect a more even matchup than normal this afternoon? We’ll see. But regardless of the factors that may or may not affect the actual game or outcome, what can the Tops do to get it done against a stone cold favorite in MTSU?

Keys to Victory

Know Who You Are and Ride the Wave

WKU had some moments in the game last night that were shockingly good. WKU generally does shoot extremely well if they play up to their potential, but they were clicking on all cylinders as thye rode the “wave” of emotion as they realized they were taking over and probably about to make a championship appearance. Middle is very, very good. But with the way the Tops played Friday, they could absolutely pull the upset. Be confident and just know that you’re Toppers, it’s championship time, and that means it’s go time. We win championships.

Find Some Kind of Way to Slow Middle Down

WKU has been utterly unsuccessful keeping MTSU under 80. MTSU averages 73. Keep them at their average or below and you’ve got a real shot. The good news is MTSU has not really held you down significantly, either. WKU has had some of its best offensive games against MTSU this season, scoring 75 and 81 points, well above their average 70 point game. If WKU can just get in Middle’s way and take care of the basketball, that will go a long way. If Middle can do whatever they want, that’s almost certain doom for the Tops.

Play Well

Today is not the day to shoot under 35%, like WKU has done on multiple occasions. Western’s offense has improved massively since Karris Allen has emerged as a legitimate rotation player the last couple of weeks. But Western will not survive a battle against Middle if they just can’t make a bucket.

Handle the Free Throw Battle

First of all, don’t hand MTSU opportunities to shoot free throws. They shoot 78% as a team, an incredible number. They also earn more free throws than their opponent. If WKU wants to gain some kind of statistical advantage somewhere, they’re going to have to do something extraordinary. If WKU could win the free throw battle, that would be remarkable. Simply holding their own would be good enough. Avoiding an awful free throw shooting performance is essential. WKU shot 35% at home against UTEP, 43% against Charlotte, and heck, 53% against MTSU at Middle. Two other times, the Tops shot 55% or less from free throw. That just can’t happen if you want to beat a good team.

Hang in There

That’s just some general advice, but also hang in there and battle for rebounds. The possession doesn’t start—or the offensive possession doesn’t continue—without securing the rebound. WKU is excellent on the offensive boards, but hideous on the defensive glass. On top of rebounding, WKU gives up a high percentage from the floor. The Toppers’ pressure defense is their saving grace, forcing turnovers and creating chaos and limiting possessions. In all areas, if WKU can just hang in there and fight, it’s going to give the Tops a chance. WKU has the ability to win against Middle. They have had large leads in both of the previous games. But Middle has always awoken and used their experience to win the day. Hanging in there would show maturity and poise, and it gives you a chance against a superior opponent.

Prediction

We know this is an uphill battle. WKU is going to have to play some excellent basketball. MTSU dominates its opponents by over 17 points per game. They only have 11 games that they have played inside ten points. However, in those games, they are 7-4, including all of their losses. That’s a sign of (hate to admit it) good coaching and the ability to finish a basketball game. However, it stands to reason that if you’re the underdog and you don’t keep it close, you have no chance to win.

We’ll see if WKU keeps scoreboard pressure on the Blue Raiders. I do think WKU has added some weapons since last playing MTSU in early February. The main weapon is Karris Allen. In four of her last six games, she has had at least seven points. She only had two other outputs like that all season, and she wasn’t even asked to play in every game by Greg Collins early in the season. Now she’s playing like one of the top five or six players on the team. It’s a huge swing for a young freshman. Can it continue another game? Could she be the X factor against Middle?

WKU also really needs to see somebody (or multiples) from the group of Jaylin Foster, Macey Blevins, Josie Gilvin, Alexis Mead, Aaliyah Pitts, and Hope Sivori step up and make some plays against Middle. Each of those have shown signs of promises, but each of those have had recent slumps that kept them from being considered completely reliable assets. Sivori is a big time shot maker, but had not scored in her two previous games and scored three the game before that. Yet she still averages 8 points per game. Alexis Mead and Jaylin Foster average about eight per game, but they have been inconsistent. Foster has been good in the C-USA Tournament, but before that, she was having a rough patch.

WKU needs to come together and play a great game. So will they?

Ya know what? I have felt all season that WKU could take down Middle if they played up to their potential. They have taken significant leads in both games. They have the potential, but consistency has been the issue. Last night was the sign for me that WKU is hungry and ready to go win this championship. They will need a little assistance from Middle, but I believe Middle is not playing its absolute best, and WKU is coming together. The bench reaction and the performance overall last night just shows how together this team is. Good luck breaking up that sisterhood!

So with that being said, I’m going to go out on a limb. Plus, you can be DARN sure I’m not picking Middle to win a championship if I can help it.

I’ve got Western Kentucky 68-Middle Tennessee 67. Buzzer beater from Hope Sivori. Mark it down.

Tune in this afternoon at 4:30.

GO TOPS! BEAT MIDDLE!