Lady Tops: Lady Toppers Fall 45-41 to Lady Techsters due to a poor fourth quarter.

After leading by nine at the third quarter break, The Lady Toppers struggled, only scoring 2 points in the final 10 minutes.

Mar 02, 2024

The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers (15-14, 6-8 CUSA) have lost four in a row during the most crucial stretch of its Conference USA season. Due to current tiebreakers, WKU finds themselves tied for fourth place with Louisiana Tech (12-17, 6-8 CUSA), and UTEP (11-16, 6-8 CUSA). With only 2 games to go in the regular season, Western Kentucky needs a win to solidify a decent, well-deserved seed (given the body of work) heading into conference tournament. The Lady Toppers are massively struggling to score points without sophomore guard Acacia Hayes, and frankly it looks bleak without her presence.

Acacia Hayes Could Possibly Suit up In Huntsville

According to Coach Collins and other sources, Acacia Hayes’ rehabilitation has gone better than expected. There is a chance that she may return to play during the upcoming CUSA Tournament which opens March 12th in Huntsville, Alabama. As of publication, WKU can finish no worse than a 7 seed, meaning they will not play until at least March 13th. Understating the obvious, Acacia has been a key player all season. Her return would definitely be a boost to the team and fan base. Acacia still leads the team in scoring (15.1 ppg). Hopefully, she will be able to elevate the team to their full capability for the rest of the season, whether it is from the bench or in the game.

WKU is 2-3 since Acacia went down with her injury against MTSU. Honestly, that’s not a horrifying record, and signs of a WKU skid were evident before Acacia went down, most notably with a horrifying overtime loss to Sam Houston, who had not won a Division I game in exactly two months when WKU played them. However, the WKU offense is the obvious loser in all of this. At least WKU could score with Acacia around, dropping in 81 against Sam Houston, for example. Since her injury, WKU is yet to score 70 points in a game, while with Acacia, the Tops scored at least 70 in 9 of 22 games. Having Acacia in any capacity would massively boost the Lady Tops if she were to come back at all before the end of the season.

The CUSA Race Dynamics

With the win over WKU Lady toppers last Saturday, MTSU (23-4) (13-0 CUSA) wrapped up the regular season CUSA title and the number one see in the upcoming CUSA Tournament. Florida International (18-9) and Liberty (14-14) are tied in second at 9-4 in CUSA play. It is now a 3 way tie for fourth at 6-8 between WKU (15-14), Louisiana Tech (12-17), and UTEP (11-16). Jacksonville State and New Mexico State follow tied for seventh at 5-9. Sam Houston (7-18) (2-11 CUSA) will probably stay in ninth place needing to win all three remaining games to even hope for an 8 seed.

There are races within races within CUSA. There will be some shuffling especially in the last 6 positions in these last 2 or 3 games of the regular season. For WKU, the Tops will avoid the 8-9 matchup since Jacksonville State and NMSU play each other, guaranteeing WKU cannot fall below both teams, even if they lose. The rest is up to chance, but every one of the five teams around WKU have a tough schedule. Unfortunately, so do the Lady Tops, who get the aforementioned second and third place teams in the conference (thankfully at home), FIU and Liberty. If WKU can beat one of the two teams they face these next two Saturdays, they’ll be in great shape to get a four or five seed. However, if everything goes wrong, WKU could fall as low as seventh, but because of sheer odds, the Tops would likely land in the six spot if they lose the next two games.

What Went Right at La Tech

Steals - The Lady Toppers snagged 12 steals and were +6 against the Lady Techsters during the game. This is 2 above WKU’s average and one of the keys to keeping them in the game until the end.
Turnovers - Western Kentucky turned Louisiana Tech over 20 times in this game. La Tech averages only 15.8, which may seem high to a casual women’s basketball fan (women’s basketball generally has more turnovers per game. This was a key to WKU’s early success. La Tech’s coach, Brooke Stoehr, was visibly frustrated for most of the game.
Points in Paint - WKU scored 22 points in the paint and were +8 (22-14) against the Lady Techsters. For such a low scoring game, this is a significant amount of paint points. This is a good sign defensively, and WKU needs to continue to increase this in coming games.
Defensive Shooting Percentage: Holding La Tech to 33.3% overall and 16.7% from 3 is amazing, considering LaTech averages 41. The Lady Tops should be proud of themselves. That La Tech is down from their average of 41.3% and 31.9% respectively, so give the Lady Topper defense some credit for holding two straight opponents about as low as they possibly could on the scoreboard.
Anna Larr Roberson contained - This key was also achieved. Anna scored 12 points (avg 12.5), 6 Rebounds (avg 5.2), 1 steal (avg 0.8), 5 turnovers (avg 1.7), so she was around her season average. She was not the issue or the reason for the loss for the Lady Tops
Offensive Rebounds - Grabbing 17 rebounds after missed shots is a nice stat and was +5 over LaTech. This is well above WKU’s normal 10.7 Offensive rebounding average per game.

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What Went Wrong

Points off Turnovers Margin - The Lady Toppers were able to score 16 points off 20 turnovers, which is fine enough, but La Tech scored 13 points off of 14 WKU turnovers. Unfortunately, that is only a margin of +3 when a team taking advantage of 20 turnovers should have scored more than 20 off of said turnovers. In hindsight, a few more points in transition would have given the Lady Tops the exact amount of juice they needed to finish the ball game. Defense and scoring off of turnovers is part of this Lady Topper team’s identity. For them to be successful, this margin must be higher, especially when you are struggling to score in the half court.
Fast Break Points Margin - Fast break points is another key statistic that WKU must be ahead in to be be successful in games. In this game, the number was five. That low of a number baffles me. With 20 total turnovers and 12 steals, somehow WKU only scored five points in transition? To compound this, La Tech scored six fast break points, outscoring WKU in this split by one point.
Turnovers - Normally, 14 turnovers (1.2 below their average) would not be a problem, but the Lady Toppers committed several of these in the fourth quarter, leading to fouls and easier baskets. Also, in a game like this, possessions are precious, and throwing up a hideous brick would be better than turning the ball over and give the team a chance to grab an offensive board.
Fouls - In this game, WKU committed 21 fouls. La Tech got in the bonus early in the fourth quarter and was shooting 2 free throws on every WKU foul. Nearly half of the Lady Techster points in the fourth quarter were free throws (8 of 17 points scored), while WKU shot zero free throw attempts in the fourth quarter.
Shooting - The Lady Toppers shot 26.2% from the field for the game and only 21.4% from behind the three point line, well below their season averages of 38.8% and 29.4%. You just can’t win shooting like that.
Fourth quarter - The Lady Toppers led the Lady Techsters 39 - 30 starting the 4th quarter until La Tech’s Amaya Brannon made a layup at the 6:27 mark. WKU would not score until 3:53 left in the quarter making the score 41-38. Amaya Brannon ran down the court and made a layup 41-40. Then both teams went cold again and no points were scored again until 0:13 seconds left when Jianna Morris made two free throws on a questionable foul call on Caitlin Staley with three seconds left on the shot clock. Under and slightly behind the goal, Caitlin stopped her from gaining the baseline, bumped into her, and in a situation whistles often get swallowed, Staley gets called for a marginal hip check behind the basket. Two fouls and three free throws later tallied the final score 41-45 in favor the Lady Techsters.
Here are some concerning statistics that led to a lead loss by WKU and a 15-2 run by La Tech: Since the 1:58 mark of the third quarter, WKU missed ten of eleven layups, four threes, four other jumpers, going 1-of-19 shooting. Add committing eight fouls and five turnovers, plus zero free throws taken, and that is one way to lose a nine point lead with the other team shooting less than 33% in a comeback effort.

Next Time Out

The Western Kentucky Lady Hilltoppers (15-14, 6-8 CUSA) try to halt a four-game losing streak on Saturday, March 2, 2024 at E. A. Diddle Arena when they host the Florida International Lady Panthers (18-9, 9-4 CUSA), who have also lost their last two games. Both teams are battling for seeding at the CUSA Tournament. FIU needs to keep pace with Liberty, and WKU needs to avoid an epic meltdown and get some kind of confidence heading in to postseason play. It should be an exciting matchup.

For anyone who is not able to make it to Diddle Arena, the game will be on ESPN+ at 1:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!