Lady Tops: Preview for Western Kentucky vs Florida International
Both teams are trying to stop losing streaks with WKU at four games and FIU dropping two games in a row. This should be a heated battle as both teams try to get back right in the CUSA rankings.
Overview
On Saturday, March 2, the Western Kentucky Lady Toppers are back home hosting the Florida International Lady Panthers. Florida International (18-9, 9-4 CUSA) has lost three out of the last five games including two straight. They currently sit tied for second place with the Liberty University Flames. Western Kentucky (15-14, 6-8 CUSA) is coming off of a fourth straight loss, losers of seven of their previous nine after starting 4-1 in CUSA play. In its last game against Louisiana Tech, WKU played well until the end of the third quarter. Then poor shooting and turnovers cost the Lady Toppers a nine point lead, losing 45-41. With this loss, WKU sits in fourth, tied with La Tech and UTEP.
What The Game Means
For FIU, a win over WKU and they earn a sweep over the Lady Toppers and maintain their second place in the CUSA regular season standings. FIU can be no worse than third in the final regular season standings, but second place means they play on Wednesday for a chance to play again on Friday with a day’s rest. An important day of rest as incentive for winning regular season games. For WKU, a win keeps them in fourth place. A loss and WKU could fall down the CUSA standings, depending on the rest of the games today. WKU can not be the eight or nine seed, but it is theoretically possible for the Tops to drop as low as seventh.
Looking Back
The game in Miami on January 28 was a back and forth battle through the first half. The Lady Toppers jumped out to a first quarter lead, 13-11. FIU outscored WKU by 4 in the second to take a 24-22 lead at halftime. At 8:40 in the third quarter, the Lady Toppers tied the game at 27 when Alexis Mead made a layup. From that point on, FIU would build a ten point lead and maintain that until the final score of 70-60, giving WKU its second CUSA loss and starting its massive skid through all of February. WKU was led by Destiny Salary, who led all scorers, with 18 points and Alexis Mead added 12. FIU had four players in double figures, led by Tanajah Hayes with 15.
Luckily WKU has only fallen from second to fourth place since then, mainly because three times have dominated since this point: MTSU, FIU, and Liberty. Sickness, suspensions, and injuries have hampered WKU efforts since the end of January, but ultimately it’s a real mystery why WKU has been this bad for an entire month and a half at this point.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: - Acacia Hayes - 15.1 points per game
RPG: Odeth Betancourt - 4.6 rebounds per game
APG: Alexis Mead - 3.9 assists per game
SPG: Alexis Mead- 2.0 steals per game
FIU Stat Leaders
PPG: Mya Kone - 11.5 points per game
RPG: Mya Kone - 8.1 rebounds per game
APG: Tanajah Hayes - 3.8 assists per game
SPG: Tanajah Hayes - 2.1 steals per game
WKU Team Stats
64.0 PPG
38.8 % FG
29.4% 3PT
33.5 RPG
12.4 APG
10.8 SPG
15.2 TO
FIU Team Stats
69.2 PPG
41.1% FG
31.5% 3PT
39.9 RPG
12.3 APG
8.6 SPG
18.3 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
Western Kentucky is going to need to contain Mya Kone. Kone is a 6’2” sophomore forward from Pompano Beach, Florida, who transferred from James Madison. Mya leads the Lady Panthers in scoring and rebounding. She has been a very consistent player in conference. She can cause trouble inside with her rebounding ability, but will go outside and shoot the occasional 3 pointer, too. Her weaknesses are turnovers and fouls, averaging nearly 5 turnovers and almost 4 fouls per conference game.
WKU MUST box her out and frustrate her without giving up too many fouls of their own. Get the ball inside and make her defend cleanly. Keep her on the bench and make other players score and rebound.
WKU did a good job of containing Kone in January to 11 points, six rebounds, three turnovers and three fouls. WKU must contain her in Bowling Green.
To repeat from last time, the Lady Toppers need to win the paint battle. While WKU had many opportunities inside and did lead paint scoring and offensive rebounding categories against La Tech, WKU missed too many layups, put backs, and short jumpers. Looking at tape, it shows poor footwork and court awareness at times. Many shots were short. Proper use of the backboard in these situations should increase shooting percentage or offensive rebounding. WKU shoots free throws very well as a team, so they need to be aggressive in the paint and draw more fouls, especially in the 4th quarter (zero free throws attempted in the fourth quarter at La Tech).
Western must also contain the Lady Panthers’ three point shooting, especially Tanajah Hayes and Angena Belloso as they shoot around 40%. FIU has six players that average greater than 30 percent from behind the three point line, a really nice number in women’s basketball.
WKU needs to shake off their last four games and focus on one game at a time for the rest of the season. Western Kentucky must find a way to put together four quarters. In many of their losses, large stretches of bad shooting and turnovers have cost them close games, as was evident in the last 11 minutes against La Tech. The Lady Tops played well defensively against the Blue Raiders on Saturday, as well, but offense kept them from even sniffing a victory.
The Lady Toppers identity is annoying, hard nosed defense that creates the most live ball turnovers (10.8 steals per game) of any team in CUSA. But between turnovers and poor shot selection, WKU does not always generate enough easy or fast break baskets. This is another ongoing key statistic.
The biggest question once again will be from whom will WKU get scoring in the absence of Acacia Hayes. More specifically, who can penetrate without help? Destiny Salary and Alexis Mead are the two most likely candidates, but both have struggled to penetrate in Hayes’ absence thus far. The scoring needs to be balanced and everyone must be ready to play as there is less margin for error, and the Tops are playing a quality opponent. The Lady Tops must play good basketball to win going forward. They can’t throw out a C+ effort and expect to beat anyone.
FIU
In the absence of Acacia Hayes, Florida International is going to have to shut down Destiny Salary and Alexis Mead. This will be a key until Acacia returns to the floor. Teams playing against WKU will pack the middle, close the driving lanes, guard best three point shooters, and grab missed shots.
Offensively, FIU is one of the most balanced teams that Western has faced this year. Three players average more than 10 points and six players average between six and just under ten. FIU needs to just play their game and keep Western from scoring easy baskets.
FIU is also just the better team, even with WKU at full strength. FIU needs to taste blood in the water and go get themselves that two seed if at all possible. It is within their grasp, and they just have to take care of their business. They must win their final two games, and then we will see who gets the two depending on which of the five teams in the middle end up ranking higher and deciding the tiebreaker. FIU may have the upper hand if they beat WKU. Too much remains to be seen regarding tiebreakers (FIU and Liberty split, so it goes down the standings and WKU is the highest placed team with a difference in record vs Liberty (1-0) and FIU (0-1).
All of that to say…FIU is the better offensive team, especially given current roster makeup. It is their job to execute and not fall prey to WKU’s home court advantage.
Conclusion
This game will come down to WKU making more shots and scoring more points than they have in the past few weeks. They will need to shut down FIU defensively and keep them under 60 points to have a real shot at an upset.
This is a tough matchup for WKU, even at home. I see WKU falling 63 - 59. But I hope I’m wrong.
For anyone that is not able to make it to Diddle Arena in Bowling Green today, the game will be on ESPN+ at 1:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. Also, for Lady Topper live tweeting, follow RedOut, as RedOut will have live tweets if and when the men play at the same time. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!