Lady Tops: Preview of Liberty University vs Western Kentucky
Liberty will be traveling to Bowling Green after a home battle against Middle Tennessee. Western has struggled over the last 10 games and desperately needs a win.
Overview
On Saturday, March 9, the Western Kentucky Lady Toppers are back home hosting the red hot Liberty University Lady Flames. Liberty University (15-15, 10-5 CUSA) are winners of five of six and nine out of eleven. Furthermore, the only losses are to first place Middle Tennessee twice. They currently sit in third place behind the Florida International Panthers and need to win Saturday and get help to move ahead of them. Western Kentucky (15-15, 6-9 CUSA) is coming off of a fifth straight loss, losers of eight of their previous ten after starting 4-1 in CUSA play. In its last game against FIU, WKU again played well until the end of the third quarter. Then poor shooting and turnovers cost the Lady Toppers a 16 point lead, losing 71-68. With this loss, WKU sits in fifth, tied with Jacksonville State and UTEP. The Lady Toppers desperately need a win to stay in fifth or sixth, possibly falling to eighth place in a worst case scenario.
What The Game Means
For Liberty, a win over WKU and they split the series with the Lady Toppers and maintain their second place hopes in the CUSA regular season standings. Liberty can be no worse than third in the final regular season standings, but second place means they play on Wednesday for a chance to play again on Friday with a day’s rest, likely getting an FIU team (or whoever the six seed ends up being) that would not have had rest the day before. An important day of rest as incentive for winning regular season games.
For WKU, a win keeps them out of day one of tournament play. A loss and WKU could fall down the CUSA standings, depending on the rest of the games this week. WKU should not be the eight or nine seed, but it is theoretically possible for the Tops to drop as low as seventh and even eighth in a less-than-one-percent-chance scenario. Another thing that could possibly be on the line for WKU is their coach’s job. Not that we’re on a witch hunt here, but at some point, Greg Collins’ tenure has to be called into question. He has had several moments where he clearly overachieved (like last year), but he has had far more moments of “what the heck is going on?”
Looking Back
The game in Lynchburg, Virginia, on January 6 saw the Lady Flames jump out to a first quarter lead, 23-15. They extended their lead to 41-28 at halftime. When the Lady Toppers came out from halftime, their defense came out playing hard. WKU only allowed Liberty eight points off of 3-7 shooting and forced nine turnovers during the third period. Plus Western held Liberty scoreless for the last 5:51 of the period and an additional almost 2 minutes into the fourth period. Western took their first lead of the game on their initial possession of the final stanza on a Karris Allen jumper, 50-49. The rest of the quarter was back and forth with the Lady Toppers holding off the Lady Flames in the final seconds, 68-66. At this point, WKU fans were energized, because the Lady Toppers were NOT favored in this game. They certainly pulled a rabbit out of the hat, and it set up WKU’s stellar 4-1 start. WKU was led by Alexis Mead (20), who led all scorers, and Acacia Hayes (19). Liberty had four players in double figures, led by Bella Smuda and Jordan Hodges with 14.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: - Acacia Hayes - 15.1 points per game
RPG: Odeth Betancourt - 4.6 rebounds per game
APG: Alexis Mead - 4.0 assists per game
SPG: Alexis Mead- 2.0 steals per game
BPG: Caitlin Staley - 1.4 blocks per game
Liberty Stat Leaders
PPG: Bella Smuda - 14.8 points per game
RPG: Bella Smuda - 9.8 rebounds per game
APG: Jordan Hodges - 4.4 assists per game
SPG: Asia Boone - 1.3 steals per game
BPG: Bella Smuda - 2.3 blocks per game
WKU Team Stats
64.1 PPG
39.0 % FG
29.4% 3PT
33.5 RPG
12.4 APG
10.9 SPG
15.4 TO
Liberty Team Stats
65.2 PPG
41.8% FG
32.8% 3PT
39.6 RPG
14.1 APG
5.2 SPG
16.2 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
Western Kentucky is going to need to contain Bella Smuda and Emma Hess. Bella is 6’6” Junior Center and Emma is a 5’11” Junior Guard. These two lead the team in scoring, shooting percentage, and several other statistics. WKU must contain these two in some fashion and not let anyone else score more than their average. The Tops, specifically Odeth Betancourt, did a great job on Smuda last game and really made her life difficult.
To repeat from last time, the Lady Toppers need to win the paint battle. This has improved over the last few games, but is still missing too many layups. Improve there and you win a few more games. Points in paint was dominated by Liberty in the first meeting (32-22). Just by that number alone, WKU clearly got at least a little lucky to find the W.
WKU needs to take better jump shots. Too many are off balance or the player is not squared to the basket. Shooters need to be confident in their abilities, but know what they do poorly and perhaps not have two of your worst shooters cranking nearly the most threes on the team.
WKU needs to shake off most of their last ten games and in this next game focus on the current moment. Put together good moments and create good quarter(s). Do that for the rest of the season. Obviously in many of the losses, large stretches of bad shooting, turnovers, or bad defense have caused these losses. These lapses need to be moments not minutes.
The Lady Toppers identity is annoying, hard nosed defense that creates the most live ball turnovers (10.9 steals per game) of any team in CUSA. So, Western Kentucky must find a way to force their style of play, their identity, on the other team. WKU is most successful when their turnover differential is plus eight (+8) and points off turnovers is plus five (+5). It is obvious when looking at the numbers: Limit your mistakes and exploit your opponent’s errors.
The biggest question once again will be, “From whom will WKU get scoring in the absence of Acacia Hayes?” More specifically, who can penetrate without help? Destiny Salary and Alexis Mead are the two most likely candidates, but both have struggled to penetrate in Hayes’ absence thus far. Teresa Faustino was this player in the last game. The scoring needs to be balanced and everyone must be ready to play as there is less margin for error, and the Tops are playing another quality opponent. The Lady Tops must play good basketball to win going forward. They can’t throw out a C+ effort and expect to beat anyone.
Liberty University
In the absence of Acacia Hayes, Liberty needs to shut down Destiny Salary and Alexis Mead. This will be a key until Acacia returns to the floor. During WKU’s last 10 games, teams playing against WKU pack the middle, close the driving lanes, put a big guard on Alexis, guard best three point shooters, and grab missed shots. This has been the game plan by opponents since Acacia’s injury.
Liberty has been a solid team in the CUSA regular season. Their goal is to go get themselves that two seed if at all possible. It is within their grasp, with a FIU loss. They just have to take care of their business. They must win their final two games, and then we will see who gets the two depending on which of the five teams in the middle end up ranking higher and deciding the tiebreaker. Too much remains to be seen regarding tiebreakers (FIU and Liberty split, so it goes down the standings).
All of that to say…Liberty is the better offensive team, especially given current roster makeup. It is their job to execute and not fall prey to WKU’s home court advantage. We already know WKU got lucky the first time, and that was at full strength. If Liberty can impose its size and get the bigger bodies on the Lady Topper roster frustrated, it could be a long night for the Lady Tops.
Conclusion
This game will come down to WKU making more shots and scoring more points than they have in the past few weeks. Western fell just short against FIU defensively late in the game. Western must try to keep Liberty below 60 points in this game.
This is a tough matchup for WKU, even at home. I see WKU falling 63 - 61 in another heartbreaker. But I hope I’m wrong.
For anyone that is not able to make it to Diddle Arena in Bowling Green on Saturday, the game will be on ESPN+ at 2:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. Also, for Lady Topper live tweeting, follow RedOut, as RedOut will have live tweets if and when the men play at the same time. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!