Lady Tops Roundtable: What Is Your Prediction for the Lady Toppers in Huntsville?

The Lady Topper have stumbled, losing six in a row and nine of 11. However, Acacia Hayes is back, and the Lady Toppers have looked much different against two good opponents to end the season.

The Western Kentucky Lady Toppers frankly looked like a team of destiny early this season. They seemed destined to at least make a WNIT and really be a top 100 type of team, competing straight up with Middle Tennessee and Liberty for a CUSA title.

That evaporated quickly. For reasons unexplainable, the Lady Toppers went from 4-1 in Conference USA and 13-7 overall to 15-16 and 6-10. It’s been an absolute meltdown. There’s no other way to describe it.

And for those that say, “Oh it was just injury.” WKU’s skid started when they lost to FIU, Sam Houston (!!!!), and MTSU in late January and early February. Then Acacia Hayes got injured later in the Middle game. It’s not like she got injured and then WKU just fell apart the moment she went down. No. WKU was melting down and then on top of whatever internal funk was going on, Acacia goes down, and the Tops just continued to spiral. They would actually win two games immediately after Acacia went down, pulling off a miracle against La Tech at home and winning a sludgefest against Jacksonville State.

But WKU’s offense was never the same after that. Well, until the last eight days of the season. Against FIU, the good offense returned, but the excellent hard-nosed defense of the past month of play disappeared along with it. All told, WKU goes cold and melts down a 16 point third quarter lead. Bloody devastating. Then Liberty does the same thing, but it was way more of a “Liberty playing great” than WKU playing poorly.

The biggest news people need to realize is a) Acacia Hayes is back and b) This Lady Topper team is good enough to make a run and has the draw to do it. This Lady Topper team probably finishes with 20 wins if Acacia Hayes stays healthy. They would probably be a top four seed instead of a seven, and they may have taken one of the last three they played between Middle, FIU, and Liberty.

The biggest question is, “Who is going to show up?” Is it going to be the zombie squad that showed up at Sam Houston and lost to a team that hadn’t won in two months after having a huge lead and being given overtime to regroup and still losing? Or will it be the team that beat the brakes off Miami (OH) on the road, beat Vermont, and gave an NCAA at-large Vandy a really hard time in Memorial, the team that looked like it had an inside post presence that could score (Odeth Betancourt), two big time scorers (Acacia Hayes and Destiny Salary) and two do-it-all guards with experience (Teresa Faustino and Alexis Mead) to pull the team together that shows up? Again, who the heck shows up and on what nights?

This could go great, WKU could get a win, and they could be off to the races. Or they could come in playing like baby deer, timid as a newborn, and get ran over by a really good Liberty team. It’s up to them and it’s up to the staff to whip them into a frenzy and have them believing, because they can do it. Will they, though?

Predictions

Matt McCay-Tops Shock Liberty, Fall to FIU in Semis

I really want to just homer it out and predict the Tops make it to the championship, draw Sam Houston, and slap them around for a championship. That would be incredible, but you know what? I just don’t see it. Earlier in the year, when I was solidifying plans to come to tournament, I thought we had two possible tournament winners. I wasn’t feeling like either team was the number one favorite, but they were both there.

Now I’m debating about whether it’s a legitimate thought to predict a single WKU win because of the return of Acacia Hayes and how well they’ve been playing lately. I’ll tell you this: The Lady Toppers played much better ball in Diddle Arena the last two games than I was expecting, and against two really good opponents that ended up neck-and-neck for second and third place. It’s frustrating. This was the year that really felt like maybe some things had clicked. And then it just became the year that everything just didn’t. It was one thing when it was COVID and two of the best players were stuck in another country and the Tops didn’t really have any great players with experience. This year, WKU is experienced, has a few players doing very good historical things, and has ability at every position. But the overall record is now 15-16, and that just makes my stomach churn. This could have been the year and it just evaporated like a sheepish dirge through a cemetery.

I’ve got WKU beating Liberty in a pretty big upset, while I’ve got FIU being the team that bounces back from recent trouble and finds a way to win against WKU for the third time. Mark my words, though: If WKU loses, it will probably be questionably managed. This year has been a year where the Lady Toppers just haven’t seemed to get it right in multiple areas. One of them has been togetherness and another has been coaching consistency. There’s not much more of a maddening than having the game in your hands and throwing it away, especially when several players who could make a difference in a matchup or players who had a good first half just mysteriously don’t even play until late in the second half, or not at all. It’s time to see Greg Collins pull it all together and win a championship, and that is a huge ask at this point for myriad reasons.

Casey Richards-Tough to Say WKU Wins A Game, But It’s Possible

I am a lot more knowledgeable about the men’s team, but I have seen a lot of the Lady Toppers games and I have a decent idea about what may happen in Huntsville. I, like many others, thought that this could be the year for the Lady Toppers. I was able to watch the Conference USA championship game last year in Frisco and it really was an awesome experience. It was my first conference championship game that I remember being at and it really had me excited for this year. I even got to sit next to coach Collin’s wife and kids!

The Lady Toppers started off strong this year and really seemed like a solid team heading into conference play. Coach Collins really knows ball and when you watch his team play, they do a lot of good things on the court. This year obviously hasn’t gone the way everyone hoped it would and the Lady Toppers really started falling apart towards the middle and end of conference play. At the beginning of the season, we looked horrible in the first half, but then somehow came back every single game. Nowadays, it’s the other way around. We have a great first three quarters and then completely fall apart in the fourth. I’m not sure of the reasoning behind this but there’s got to be a way for us to close out games.

As for Huntsville, I think that the first game against Liberty will be tough, but I think that the Lady Toppers can pull it off. WKU beat Liberty at Liberty and should’ve won the second game in Bowling Green but ultimately fell apart in the fourth. However, if you can beat them once, you can beat them again! After that, you go against either New Mexico State or FIU. Both of those teams are 2-0 over the Lady Toppers this year. I hate to say it, but I think that the farthest this team goes is the second round. It’s a bad matchup either way in the second round and it will be extremely difficult to pull it off. I really hope that I’m wrong, but it doesn’t look like this will be our year.

David McCay-Tops Can Beat Anyone But Middle, Make Finals and We’ll See From There

This one is tough. If MTSU doesn’t win, I will be extremely shocked. I’m sure that is not only our consensus, but just about everyone’s. What do the Lady Toppers need to do to win a game or two or three? We have seen some great moments this year, but we also have seen some awful sections of games. Western must play up to their potential, win the turnover margin, win the points off turnovers by eight, win fast break points, make 90% of their layups, score 30 in the paint, balanced scoring or one person score 30 (obviously), make five threes without shooting 15, score 75+, and be confident. If most of this happens, they can win a few games. I’ve got WKU 72 - Liberty 70 in a nail biter. Coming off that win and having some confidence, I see the Lady Toppers beating the Aggies or Panthers by 3 in a slug fest 65-62. I don’t want to play MTSU. I’m hoping someone tears them a new one or at least makes them realize they are mortals.

Bret Combest-Lady Tops Redeem Weak End to Season, Make Finals

I’ve got the Lady Toppers surprising a few people this year. Although they’ve fallen on some hard times in recent games, I think WKU makes a run to the finals. Give me Tops over Liberty, Tops over UTEP, and the Tops fall in the finals to Middle.

Jacob Gary-Tops Get Bounced Easily by Liberty

Before I even start talking about the results of the entire tournament for the Lady Toppers, I have to zoom in and look at their first game. Their opponent is Liberty. both teams have a sort of “mirrored record” at 16-15 (Liberty) and 15-16 (Tops). But sadly, the similarities stop there for me. In their last 12 games, Liberty is 10-2 with their only two losses coming to current favorite to win the conference tourny - MTSU. They are hot at the right time of the year, peaking in March is a recipe for success. Now I’m not saying they’ll dethrone MTSU or anything. But let’s look at the other side of the matchup…

Lady Tops are doing the opposite of peaking at the right time. In fact, I’d go as far to say they are at their lowest point of the season. They’ve lost six straight games to end the season, including one or two blown leads in games they should have been able to put away. That just isn’t what you like to see when filling out a tournament bracket. Usually, I’d put some points on the board for the Tops in this matchup and say something like “well they just lost to Liberty, and it is hard to beat a team twice in a row, back-to-back” but I’ll just be honest and say it… I don’t have much faith in the Lady Tops here.

Which leads me to the results of the entire tournament for the Lady Toppers. I expect a first round bounce and their six game losing streak to end the season at seven. I just don’t see our coach being able to make a gameplan to shut down Emma Hess for Liberty, who averages 22 points a game. I think the season ends early and the talks of moving on from Greg Collins to begin as early as the season ends.

Alex Sherfield-Lady Tops Scrape Past Liberty, Fall to FIU in Semis

If there was a chance for any form of postseason redemption for the Lady Tops, a trip to Huntsville just may work out in their favor. Now given how they’ve managed to get a 7th seed in the C-USA Tournament after a very eventful season, a grudge match with Liberty plays out to be the classic trope of it being the “end all, be all”.

However, it is challenging to beat the same team twice in a week, on a neutral court nonetheless. With the series split between both the Lady Tops & Lady Flames, the ladies are looking to make this trip a bit sweeter with an upset victory. The rest of the tournament does not look promising for WKU’s chances if they take care of business on Wednesday. Middle Tennessee is the projected favorite to win the tournament, but FIU looks very promising to clash with them in the title game. To sum it up, I’ll throw the ladies a “W” over Liberty, but I don’t see much good after that.