WKU Football: Matt's Stats - What is WKU's Way to Win Big in 2022?
Matt breaks down last season's stats and the most likely statistical trends going forward.
It’s seriously almost here, folks. A couple of days from now and it’s freakin Topper Time!
I can’t wait. Can you?
Well, while you wait (because you must), let’s chew on where the Tops were last year and where they’re likely to head statistically this year just based on roster turnover and makeup. And also, where is the greatest mystery and who needs to step up big time?
There are some positions we know will be darn good: Linebacker seems incredibly strong. Tight end should be Taggart-era good and deep barring injury. Kicker and kickoff specialist positions are up for grabs but absolutely in great hands with an interesting battle between Brayden Narveson and Cory Munson. Wide Receiver is the most stable position group on the team, we assume just because of a huge stable of proven talent, although in theory, the Tops do lose 3,000+ yards from last season.
Despite losing Jerreth Sterns’ nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards, perhaps the receiver room is the most dynamic and deep position. To quell most concerns, the only talk about the receivers in camp has been about how good and productive they all are going to be.
Then there are some positions we think will digress no matter what. Quarterback is the most obvious. Ain’t nobody setting another NCAA record like Bailey Zappe. But Jarret Doege returned the most passing yards and Austin Reed has seemingly beat him out enough to cause him to transfer. That’s a nice sign. With Austin Reed now the clear starter, he put up Zappe-like numbers at a lower level; like Zappe did. Now the question turns to whether WKU has depth at QB in case he gets banged up.
Other positions likely to see a decline are: Punter. Safety. Defensive End. Offensive Line. Those are all likely to digress because of historically great players leaving.
Then there are the mystery groups on the team, like running back, secondary and defensive tackle.
So let’s break it down in several different ways and just look at some most likely scenarios and see where the stats and expectations lead us.
Obvious Observations First
The offense isn’t scoring 44 points per game again
The most blaring statistic about the Tops from last year is obvious to everyone. Bailey Zappe was a once-in-a-lifetime statistical producer. Even Brandon Doughty, who blew our minds with 5,000+ yards one season, still was 20% less productive than Bailey Zappe with four solid years of production’s opportunity to do so. Zappe was also incredibly efficient, throwing nearly six touchdowns for every one interception while completing nearly 70% of his passes.
Very rarely has any of that happened in WKU history, and obviously we know the yards and TDs set the mark for every quarterback in the NCAA to chase going forward. So the offensive production will unquestionably go down from here. But how much and what replaces that loss? Defense? Running Game? Another great QB?
How Do You Replace DeAngelo Malone?
Malone was an incredible producer every year on The Hill, but this last season was something special. He really played a hybrid linebacker role, roaming from sideline to sideline and chasing guys from behind, while also pinning his ears back and amassing a bunch of tackles-for-loss and sacks. That combination of volume production and pass rushing skill has not been seen on The Hill in a long, long time, if ever. And he did that every year except his first!
Quanterus Smith was a pure pass rusher, but he was not versatile. He somewhat developed an ability to be ok with the run, but he was a pure pass rusher and they had to scheme to protect him in certain situations. Period. Fans would get upset because he wouldn’t play every down. Because he couldn’t. He never had more than 47 tackles in one season. Malone had more than Q in every category except single-season sacks, and his tackle production was more than twice Q Smith’s most years.
But here’s the interesting thing: Despite a third-round edge rusher leaving a Group of 5 school, there are plenty of possibilities that could in theory step up and replace Mr. Malone. Remember, WKU’s 2021 pass rush was by committee and tons of players contributed. However, no one else on the team had more than 3.5 sacks, and one of the main “other” defensive end contributors, Michael Pitts, has graduated. Jeremy Darvin is also gone and coaching high school football, so that’s another old man stalwart the Tops must replace.
Juwuan Jones is back, but how much does he have left in the tank and does he have that superstar super senior season ready to fire off for 2022? Or is three or four sacks and 35 tackles his ceiling? It’s almost impossible that the team sack total rises much above 30 (which, by the way, would still be a productive defensive front), but the loss of Malone also just begs the question, “Who’s going to be there to clean up the mess this season?” Your two leading tacklers (Antwon Kincade and Malone) are gone.
John Haggerty Was a Generational Talent
John Haggerty was just something to behold. In my time at WKU football I saw and fielded Jeremy Moore, Jake Collins, and Hendrix Brakefield’s punts (along with others), and this guy, Haggerty, was just a freak of a punter. Hendrix was long like Haggerty but just didn’t have the technique and experience and certainly had no rugby punt. Jeremy was a little shorter but was just really solid and his punts were beautiful spirals with hang time. Jake was solid, talented, and versatile and accurate enough to start as a transfer to a Power 5, but he still didn’t have the same explosion off of the foot.
Haggerty was just absolutely incredible. Before he trailed off to end the season, the man was averaging over 50 yards per punt. He only had one touchback all season! Literally 3% of the time, his punts were coming back out to the 20, and one-third of the time, that ball was stopping inside the 20. And it was a spiral unless he said so. He combined all of the Topper greats into one punter. Unreal. So Tom Ellard (we assume) is just not going to be that dynamic. He just won’t be. And frankly, from what I saw at the Spring Game, I think we’re losing about eight yards per punt on a team that almost certainly will punt more often than the Tops did in 2021.
I think this is a sneaky area of concern for the Tops. Western will absolutely punt more and will need to rely on field position more than before, but they will not have a punter that will put them in the most ideal position every punt. And this is not a knock on Ellard. Let’s say Ellard drops five yards per punt off of Haggerty’s average. That still would’ve been an All-Conference caliber punter at about 44 yards per punt. Think of how much easier it is for a team to start at the 35-yard line versus starting at the 18. It’s a huge difference. Or to make it more to the loss in average, how does the 17 sound versus starting at the 25-yard line? This could be huge and it’s really concerning to me.
Think of it this way: One statistically concrete reason Bailey Zappe didn’t get 6,000 yards passing last season was because John Haggerty ate up a bunch of his yards. Think about that one.
Highlighting the Down Trends
We already talked about defensive end, punter, and QB. What about the offensive line? WKU’s offensive line was historically good per offensive snap. Sure, they gave up 17 sacks, a number most associated with a really good college offensive line. But that number in itself is not absolutely top-shelf elite. Less than a sack and a half per game will win you a lot of games, though. More notable is how few they gave up despite passing at historic levels. WKU passed so much, WKU’s O-Line registered as a historically effective quintet to the tune that the combined pass grade numbers as a college unit hadn’t been seen in several years, especially at the G5 level.
WKU loses three starters, but returns two really good ones that Western could plug bodies in around and have a serviceable line. Gunner Britton has been a stud since arriving in Bowling Green, and Rusty Staats is the best returning center in the country and arguably was one of the best last year. Sophomore Quantavious Leslie is another name the Tops really love. Those three are the glue for the entire team. There are definitely going to be some battles for the other spots, but plenty of guys have enough experience to be pretty to really good. However, how much of a dip do they take just by not being the best Group of 5 offensive line in a decade?
The other obvious digression to me is going to be the fact the Tops lost tackle leader and do-it-all safety Antwon Kincade. Kincade was not an interception artist, only picking it off four times in four years, but he did literally everything else. Time and again, he was cleaning up messes left by unproductive linebackers and also manning the back end of the defense, sometimes seemingly without help. Sometimes 100 tackles from a safety is not a good thing, but he almost functioned as a linebacker at times, making plays within ten yards of the line of scrimmage more often than not.
With the departure of Kincade and the transfer of Beanie Bishop to Minnesota, that’s two very good All-Conference caliber starters with experience that must be replaced in the secondary.
Which Positions Groups Definitely Get Better?
Tight End
Duh. First of all, no offense to Joey Beljan, who seriously found a way to contribute significantly despite a limited skillset in the receiving game, but Joshua Simon is possibly the most talented tight end to ever come to Western Kentucky. That includes Jack Doyle, who did it by being a genius at reading defensive holes. Tyler Higbee is a heck of an athlete, but I think Simon edges him in pure athleticism and versatility. We can debate. But then you add in River Helms and whoever else from the tight end room that may add some bonus on special teams and specialty situations and this is a group that goes from abysmal to its deepest in years. Now with Simon and Beljan both being experienced and legitimate touchdown threats, they could play these different talents off of each other and wreak havoc deep in opponents’ territory. Or they could provide wonderful safety valves in difficult situations. And that’s not to mention that these guys are good blockers, too.
The Defense (Overall)
I know this seems odd given the loss of really good players that are now fighting for jobs in the league, but there are a few factors that almost definitely lead to a better defense. First of all, the defense was hideously atrocious the first half of the season and literally could not have been worse than what they were. Giving up 38.4 points per game (including an OVC FCS team) the first five games of the year with a 1-4 record, the defense settled in last season and dropped their average in the final nine games down to 24.3 ppg with an 8-1 record, ultimately averaging 29.36 points given up per game and finishing 9-5 overall. Ultimately against the scoreboard, WKU’s scoring defense was 92nd, while the boys in red were 109th in yards allowed per game.
Part of that was Maurice Crum being a brand new defense coordinator. He has now moved on to Ole Miss, but he admittedly struggled to start the year. He finally settled in and did a good job, but imagine if an experienced coordinator was at the helm and didn’t have a huge learning curve? Oh wait, that’s what WKU has this year with 20-year coaching veteran Tyson Summers. With multiple seasons at big-time jobs as the coordinator, he may not be Brent Venables, but he’s also not going to be a rookie trying to figure it out on the fly, either. And this is not a shot at Mo Crum. He’s a superstar coach waiting to bud. But he’s also not developed and inexperienced and was a bit of a risk from the jump last season.
Also, to bolster the argument that the defense should be better, what about going from having non-existent, injured linebackers to having a full cast of characters with Power 5 talent, depth, and experience? The linebackers can legitimately go at least six deep without a huge drop-off, and several of them can also rush the passer prolifically. With different body types, they each bring a little something to round off the talents in that room. Last season, key players were injured and young guys were asked to be elite. That’s a tough ask.
I believe the Tops will have to improve defensively just by how bad they were statistically last season, especially early. And I think the Tops return enough and plug all of the holes they left open from last season via the transfer portal. I believe strongly that the defense should be the backbone of the team and not the frustrating low ceiling to success.
The key will be the defensive line. If Juwuan Jones, Brodric Martin and company can be who we think they can be, the Tops could really be a force in all three phases barring unforeseen circumstances.
Who Could Surprise Us?
Running Backs
Although WKU lost Noah Whittington to Oregon and returns way less than 1,000 rushing yards from last season, WKU had some huge wins for the RBs going forward. Jakairi Moses, who at first announced the desire to transfer, has decided to stay for his 19th season, providing a consistent 150-350 yards per season despite significant injury history. His potential has always been quite high if he could stay healthy. Kye Robichaux is deservedly on scholarship and back healthy and provides a fascinating versatile threat. Javy Bunton (Bowling Green High freshman) and Alabama three-star L.T. Sanders seem to provide young depth, while Davion Ervin-Poindexter provides a legit Power 5 transfer that started three games for his former team (Indiana) that WKU just so happens to play on the road September 17.
Watch out for the running backs to be difference makers, especially considering that the standard was quite low last season and any significant running game would be a welcome improvement. Also, throw in the fact that whoever runs the offense will be able to run and these guys may have a nice opportunity to get some open running lanes they didn’t have with Bailey Zappe.
Quarterbacks
Don’t forget that Jarret Doege and Austin Reed are both guys “that we can win with”, according to WKU head coach Tyson Helton before Doege’s transfer to Troy. Both had significant production history in college, and both resemble former WKU standout QBs in many ways stylistically and statistically.
Reed’s ascension up the Tops’ depth chart is more than enough reason to believe he can get the job done this season: Committing in March, Doege committed in January. Reed had very little time to prepare to learn the WKU offense (Doege was a January commit and had all of the spring semester). Reed looked just as good as Doege in the spring, and when he had time to fathom what was going on at WKU and at the Division I level by continuing his work in the summer, he likely made more progress than Doege would have in the same time frame simply because of potential. By Reed winning the job, it tells me he must be pretty darn good.
Helton gave everybody a chance, and Mr. Reed came out on top. Imagine a producer to the level of Zappe at the college level coming in with two years to sharpen his skills at WKU. Calm down, but what am I saying? Raise your expectations, given this news. At the very least, QB should not be a reason to lower WKU’s ceiling, unless Reed gets injured. Then WKU will be putting out an inexperienced young quarterback and would likely be in a world of hurt.
Defensive Line
Although there are some “for real” losses on the line, there is still tons of adequate production coming back, and tons of options could fill the shoes of the departed. Juwuan Jones could finally have a huge year like WKU fans have begged for. Brodric Martin was Defensive MVP in the Spring and is a huge, destructive man reeking of potential. Several young guys made explosive plays on the edge last season. I believe this group could be pretty good, but the whole key is someone stepping up and being “the man”. Without “the man”, this group could struggle.
Keys to Each Position Group
Quarterback: Top 25 Passer
WKU needs its quarterback to be prolific in this style of offense. The guy doesn’t have to be Zappe, but the closer he is to All-Conference, the higher the ceiling is for this team. I think a great benchmark for success is a top 25 passer. He doesn’t have to be otherworldly, but let’s see a guy that’s viewed as one of the best Group of 5 quarterbacks, one of the best in the conference. That’s completely possible and acceptable from Reed in his first of two eligible years on The Hill. Without a great passer, the offense plummets, the already beleaguered running game has to pick up the slack, and the defense has even more pressure to perform. A record-setting QB is a total bonus for the Tops this season, but that kind of production is not necessary.
Running Back: Top 100 Rushing Attack
I think asking for any more than that is pushing it. The Tops were 121st last season. A big step forward would be adding about 20 more yards per game and getting into the top 100. Getting up to 150 yards per game from the low 100s would be even better and I think possible if everyone can stay healthy, especially with a more mobile quarterback. In modern college football, once you start getting into the 120s in yards per game, you have a somewhat effective running game. You have limited options if you can’t run the ball, and perhaps the biggest indication of a bad running game is getting slaughtered in time of possession. WKU rarely ever won or came close to even in the Time of Possession battle. Some of that was by choice, running a lightning pace level of offense. The other part was not being able to run the ball and stalling out drives when they tried. Get decent on the ground and the options to win games in different ways opens. It would be nice to not have to rely on the quarterback to throw safe screen passes and instead ram the ball down the opponent’s throat for the fourth quarter.
Wide Receiver: Four Legit Threats averaging more than 200 total yards per game
My immediate thought is, “Have two threats for 100 yards every game and two other threats for 50.” If the Tops can have four good receivers that produce yardage every game, the offense should be fine. And by naming those numbers, I’m not saying anyone needs to average 100 or that four guys must be over 50 each. But I’m saying they need to be on that level most games to really be effective. Mitchell Tinsley and Jerreth Sterns were incredible producers. The Tops don’t have to duplicate that to win. They just need to have some dogs that can produce. And if they produce like those other guys, wonderful.
Tight End: 500 total yards and Reliable in All Phases
Even if you very generously count Dalvin Smith as somewhat of a tight end/red zone specialty guy, the tight end position didn’t produce 300 yards last season. On any team, the tight end position should have one guy that can at least get 300 yards in a season. Really, a good tight end should get a few catches and 25+ yards per game by himself. Josh Simon has done at least 370 when he’s been healthy. Last season, he was probably going for a monster year, starting out with 73 yards and two touchdowns in the first game before blowing out his leg midgame. Instead of said monster impact, he’s coming off of injury and still had a brace on in the spring, so curtail your expectations a little. If Simon could get 300 and Beljan either equal his touchdowns from last year or get another couple hundred yards (or River Helms or whoever else contribute to match whatever is lost elsewhere), this would be an actual tight end group that shows up and makes a difference. The tight end position was so statistically absent last year that they were a complete liability. Tight end is one of the most important positions in football, because they are supposed to be versatile. They should block, catch, have some speed, and be able to help on special teams. They should be do-it-all guys. If they can’t do anything, how crippling is it to an offense that spreads the field? With a good tight end in air raid offense, you could shred defenses up the seam. Tight end is the other indicator of the Topper ceiling in terms of winning. Notice how difficult it was for WKU to actually win close games without a productive, consistent set of tight ends.
Offensive Line: Less than 25 sacks
Last season, 25 sacks given up would have been a top 50 offensive line. There’s nothing wrong if these guys come back to Earth a little bit. It would be great if they’re elite and just don’t allow anyone in the backfield. But that’s tough to ask of three new starters. So let’s just say any game they give up two sacks or less is a really good performance. And frankly, that’s really good for anybody.
Defensive Line: More than 25 sacks
Western had 36 sacks last season as a team. That’s a heck of an anomaly given no one had more than nine individually (Malone). Most of the time, that’s happening when one guy has well into double digits by himself. But WKU was really good at scheming pressure as well as turning some horses loose that could get home on their own every once in a while. If the Tops could pull off 25 sacks or more, that’s a defensive line that’s doing something to the opponent.
Linebackers: Produce, Produce, Produce
I was all over the linebackers last year, not because they were awful, but because they weren’t all over the field producing stats. Do SOMETHING. I don’t care what they’re good at, but they need to be cleaning up with tackles, getting in the backfield, batting and deflecting passes, providing great coverage, forcing turnovers, or something else impactful. They are the middle of the defense. If they’re not in the middle of the statistics producing prolifically, your defense is out of balance. All of the opportunities should filter to the linebackers. The defensive line sets the gaps and the linebackers fill the holes. The safeties are exactly that: Keeping the team safe from huge plays, meaning linebackers should prevent long runs by tackling anything left over by the line on most plays. Cornerbacks should be able to do their jobs and shut down the receivers and not worry deeply about the running game.
All of that hinges on the LBs being a good, productive group. I think this LB group is good enough and deep enough to produce 20 tackles per game between special teams and defensive stops. Like I said, I don’t care how they produce. It doesn’t always need to be a tackling clinic. Once Mo Crum figured out how to get his LB’s involved, the defense took off. And notice when Will Ignont and some others were injured or banged up near the end of the season, the defense went back to being more average.
Secondary: Third Down Conversions Under 40%
Western had a tough time getting off of the field defensively in 2021. That issue was present in every game, although as we talked about above, they got much better six games in. If Western’s secondary could help put the Tops in a good enough position on third down, that would allow other options instead of having to account for everything on 3rd-and-short. Is that all on the secondary? No, but third downs are usually going to be picked up through the air in modern college football. Can the Tops bear down enough to just get off the field a little more often? That’s up to a decent secondary.
Punting: 42 yards per punt and Don’t Screw the Team
I’m honestly a little skeptical if we can do this one. Can Ellard average 42? That’s a decent college punter. But from what I saw during the Spring, I’m skeptical that he’s going to be consistent and accurate enough, which he admits he needs to work on when asked. The main thing with punting is to not shank one for six yards inside your own red zone, for example. Getting punts blocked. Dropping a snap. Those kinds of things are way more important than six or seven yards per punt less on your average. A defense can survive a short punt. It’s tough to not give up points when the opponent starts in scoring territory. Keep it clean and you can be really good for your team. I think of Alex Rinella in 2018. Not a very talented punter at all, but he rarely screwed up and was not as much of a liability as he should have been at 37 yards per punt. Hopefully Ellard is not 37 yards per game bad, but I’m really hoping the punter isn’t somebody we yell at in frustration this season. The good news is the guy is literally 28 years old and has played professionally, so he’s hopefully going to have a good head on his shoulders and be pretty sure of himself. Maturity is immeasurable.
Kicker: Whoever He is, Kick 85%+
Narveson missed a few key kicks last year, and part of that was being asked to kick some long ones. But whether it’s getting closer and kicking easier ones, or nailing some long balls, hopefully the kicker (Narveson or Munson) is really good and borderline All-Conference at worst. With a team that is likely to rely more on field position and more normal scoring, field goals will matter much more this season.
Kickoff Specialist: More of the Same
I don’t know if we appreciate how incredible Cory Munson was last year on kickoff. He almost always kicked it into the end zone, even in severe wind. If he didn’t, it was a sky ball that the return rarely made it out past the 25. He did have three go out of bounds, so that’s something that hopefully doesn’t get much worse than that. But for the most part, Munson was an absolute machine. I presume he wins the job, but whoever does it, hopefully they’re a machine, too. Especially with less margin offensively, not handing opposing offenses the ball outside of the 30 is crucial when you are more susceptible to field position issues.
Overall Analysis
Without question, there are a few things that will probably prove true no matter what: The offense will score less and the defense will allow less. I think that’s for a variety of reasons, and they’re not all bad. However, what it does is it takes your margin for error way down. Now WKU cannot afford to give up huge plays on defense. The offense needs to convert when it’s close. The coaches need to make good decisions that produce good results. Don’t miss field goals.
Last year, WKU could play awful defense, get down by 21, and come back in the second half once the opposing offense stalled a few times and win by 25 against a pretty good team. Now, Western will almost certainly not be as explosive.
But there is plenty of room for improvement in some areas. Like I mentioned, running back and tight end were liabilities last season. Those two spots stand to improve in all likelihood and tight end could go from worst to first. The linebacking corps could go from non-existent to a top 25 unit in all of college football. Those are huge swings that could help overcome huge losses. Football is way more about not sucking than being incredible at a few spots. The football teams that win big have little weakness and work together well.
Think about it: In basketball, five players start and get most of the minutes, and maybe 7-10 total impact the outcome per team. In football, at least 33 people are impacting the game, and usually it’s more like 50 or so that actually see the field. In football, having a quarterback that can throw for 500 yards but not having a good right guard, for example, can allow a front seven to target the weakling and have a field day getting after the QB. But an offense with no weakness in football with less star power is much more difficult to penetrate.
The biggest keys are at quarterback, defensive line, overall defensive discipline, and interestingly enough, the punting game. For different reasons to each point, these stand out as the biggest areas of concern. Perhaps we could add in receivers to this group of import, but I don’t think the receivers will be an issue in terms of availability and ability. It’s really down to someone getting them the ball. Can the QB be good enough to win? Can the defensive front cause problems, or will it be like what happened early last year when the Tops couldn’t get pressure without blitzing? Can the defense come up with a few stars that stand out as statistical studs? Or can they do it by committee? Somebody has to be a big producer, or it means there’s no one mopping up all the mistakes. Field position is crucial, and punting could be a liability if the Tops don’t have a reliable leg 13 yards behind the long snapper.