Monday Musings: Houston, The Tops Could Be A Problem
The Hilltoppers rallied from a 2-10 start in Conference USA play to secure the No. 4 seed in the C-USA baseball tournament. Can they make some noise in Houston?
Tournament time is here and the Hilltoppers are looking to do something they haven’t done since 2009 - make the NCAA baseball tournament.
Housekeeping
Before we get into the nitty gritty today, a brief announcement that honestly doesn’t deserve it’s own dedicated post.
But, we’re back! Kind of. You may have noticed things have been - we’ll say “sporadic” - when it comes to our publishing schedule for half a year now, if not longer. That is due to a bevy of reasons, of which we won’t bore you with. The important thing is, we are ramping up to try to bring you as regularly scheduled programing as possible.
That said, we are also scaling back what “regularly scheduled programing” entails. While in a perfect world, we’d publish every day, break every story, recap every game, etc., life isn’t cooperating on that front at the moment. So, we’re going to try a little experiment.
Every Monday and Thursday, you’ll find a new story here and, if you’re an email subscriber, in your inbox. Some days, they’ll be big, beefy breakdowns or rundowns - like you’ll find today from Matt. Other days, they’ll be some random thoughts accumulated from throughout the week.
If this is a direction you enjoy, let us know. If you want to see more frequent posts, let us know that too. If there’s a type of coverage you’re hoping to see from us but we aren’t providing it to your desires, please tell us that as well. We aim to please.
Okay, with that out of the way, welcome to the inaugural edition of, what we’re calling, Monday Musings.
Big Red’s Reads
News to use regarding WKU, Conference USA and the collegiate athletic landscape as a whole.
Malachi Corley is no longer one of the nation’s best-kept secrets. He was included in ESPN’s Top 10 wide receivers heading into the 2023 season as one of two G5 wideouts (along with UTSA’s Zakhari Franklin) and the only pass catcher from Kentucky.
DraftKings has unveiled their over/under win totals for C-USA this year, and the Hilltoppers come in at 8.5. I’m not a betting expert, but I would smash the over.
It’s never too early to talk about bowl season! Brett McMurphy’s first post-spring bowl projections are out, and he has the Tops heading back to the Lone Star State to take on another G5 powerhouse (who might not stay G5 very long).
Can Bailey Zappe surpass Mac Jones as QB1 in New England this season? The fine folks at Pats Pulpit don’t think so.
New WKU head basketball coach Steve Lutz has made another addition to his coaching staff, bringing in a familiar face as the program’s Director of Operations/Scouting.
Lutz has also garnered a pair of commitments this week: Male’s Jack Edelen and former Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islander Jalen Jackson. We’ll have more on the state of recruiting under Lutz later this week.
Speaking of WKU basketball, the program’s two biggest losses in the transfer portal in Davyion McKnight (Top 70) and Jamarion Sharp (Top 140) made 247Sports’ list of Top 150 portal player rankings.
Former Lady Tops head coach Michelle Clark-Heard has a new gig, landing an off-court role with Mississippi State as the program’s Assistant A.D.
Former Lady Topper legend Crystal Kelly has been named Acting Head Coach at Towson after the program’s head coach, Laura Harper, was placed on administrative leave. There’s a bit of ambiguity as to the why in this, with the Baltimore Sun reporting that it is a “personnel matter,” and the university refusing to comment further.
In what I believe is the first 2023/24 athletic year schedule to be released of the non-revenue sports, the WKU volleyball schedule is out. Exhibition at Kentucky (what is becoming a really fun tradition), six total tournament teams from last year and the C-USA tournament going to Liberty.
The baseball season has come to a close, with the Tops - who were picked to finish 10th (aka last) in the preseason coaches poll - drawing the No. 4 seed in this week’s C-USA Tournament in Houston. They’ll face FAU, who WKU swept last month at Nick Denes Field.
Speaking of the C-USA tournament, take it away Matt.
Houston Hoedown
Conference USA has a reputation for being one of the top conferences in all of college baseball. This season, even with the departures of programs like Southern Miss and Old Dominion, there wasn’t a tremendous drop-off, with two teams ranked or receiving votes all season: A Dallas Baptist team that could potentially host a regional, and a UTSA team in the conversation for an at-large bid, though their form down the stretch has made that conversation a bit more difficult.
The Patriots and Roadrunners were clearly the class of the league this year. And while programs like Charlotte, La Tech and FAU had down years compared to what we’ve seen in the past, it was still a competitive season, with five teams battling for the Nos. 3-7 seeds and three fighting for the C-USA baseball tournament’s eighth and final seed.
Coming into the final weekend, each of the middle five seeds were completely undecided with truly any of the five teams capable of landing in each position.
Western Kentucky started the final weekend of the season in third place, but had an uphill battle to stay in the top half of the seeding. Playing DBU, WKU stole the first game of the series and lost the final two. However, with the cushion they had created over the other teams by winning five straight series, WKU was able to salvage the No. 4 seed on a tiebreaker with fifth-seeded FAU.
Charlotte, in a stroke of pure luck, had a game canceled at UTSA that was likely to be a loss. That allowed Charlotte to garner the No. 3 seed by half a game, only playing 29 games while the rest of the league (besides UTSA) had to play 30. It is what it is, but Charlotte would have lost to WKU in a tiebreaker if there was a tie. Credit to Charlotte, the 49ers earned their seed by sweeping MTSU, who finished in 7th position.
La Tech, picked to win the league in the preseason poll, finished in a disappointing sixth place.
Setting the Stage
This tournament is wide open. As we discussed, five teams finished within a couple of games of each other. DBU is clearly the favorite and while they didn’t lose a conference series, they did lose to both WKU and MTSU in the closing month, so in a one-game, head-to-head bout, they can be taken down. Add in a little recency and Topper bias inserted here, they seemed vulnerable defensively against WKU.
Second-seeded UTSA would be your second favorite but enter the tournament a bit cold, having lost four of their last six and nearly lost a fifth game, but pulled out an extra-inning miracle against La Tech over the weekend. Having said that, they are 6-2 over their side of the bracket, so they had little issue with the teams that stand in their way of a regional birth. They also don’t deal with DBU, nor do they deal with the home team while not having to go more than a few hours from home. Perhaps given the land mines DBU must deal with, could UTSA be more likely than DBU to make it to the championship?
Charlotte is a team that started out as the third horse in a three-team race, but WKU swept them and it really sent Charlotte into a tailspin in the mid-to-late part of the conference season. However, Charlotte has seemingly righted itself and is back playing decent baseball, ending the regular season with five straight wins, including a win at then-ninth-ranked South Carolina.
WKU is arguably C-USA’s hottest team, winning five consecutive series before losing two games this weekend in . WKU was picked tenth in the league, so the fact that they finished fourth is absolutely astounding, especially considering their horrendous 2-10 start in C-USA play.
Prior to this past weekend, the Hilltoppers hadn’t lost consecutive games since April 16 & 18, when they fell to UAB in the series finale (a series the Tops won the first two games of) and then lost to Evansville in midweek play. WKU hasn’t lost three or more straight games since their eight-game losing streak that ran from March 28 until April 8.
FAU’s main factor to their success would undoubtedly be Nolan Schanuel, an absolutely ridiculous MLB prospect. The man hits .460 with a .623 on-base percentage. He leads the team in those categories, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, OPS, etc. He’s also a great defender, playing every game and only committing three errors for a .992 fielding percentage. If FAU makes a run, it’s almost certainly because of him.
Sixth-seed La Tech was the preseason favorite and last year’s tournament champions, so this team has the talent on paper and experience to get it done. Never discount a talented team.
Seventh seed Middle Tennessee largely made it into the field by riding on the back of a 5-1 record against WKU. Without those wins, Middle would have struggled to finish ahead of Rice. However, Middle has some players, and they ultimately finished around .500 in C-USA. If they hold true to that tendency, they will play a part in eliminating someone before likely bowing out.
And then there’s Rice, the host. However, Rice barely made the tournament field. Will they pull together some kind of magic? Or will they fold easily? A proud program, never doubt the “chip and a chair” mentality. This program knows what it’s doing, and they’re in it and have an equal footing to a championship. Sure, they play DBU first game, but it’s a double-elimination setup. Watch out for Rice to upset someone. At home, it’s really hard to see any team getting swept out of its own tournament.
WKU’s Keys to Victory
Be Hungry
The key to any great postseason run is to just want it more than anybody else. This program is starving for postseason success. WKU has only made two previous the C-USA Tournaments, with only one win to show for it.
Listen to Coach Rardin and Staff
These guys know what they’re doing. Look at WKU’s turnaround this year! WKU has outstripped any performance since before John Pawlowski. The only barrier the Tops did not bust straight through in year one is garnering a higher seed, which I would say it’s pretty darn impressive to accomplish that high of a seed when you were picked to finish last.
Regardless of what decisions are made, just let the man do his work. Now is not the time to quibble. Let him pull the strings, and if he’s asking you to sacrifice with bases loaded and two outs in a tie game…well, in that case, ignore him because that’s stupid. But otherwise, just trust the man and let his experience show you the way. Marc Rardin has won national championships at the college level. Have you? Let’s let him work.
Greatness Shows in The Limelight
When the lights come on, the legends distinguish themselves. As the underdog in a tough side of the bracket, it’s going to take something extraordinary to see a pissed-off team with a .500 hitter, a ranked opponent looking to host an NCAA regional, and a home team each lose two games before little ole WKU. However, all it takes is sweeping a series. If you lose one, you have to do more work. But win three in a row and you’re in the championship game for all the marbles. Then it’s just one baseball game for glory.
Something Extraordinary Has to Happen
You are NOT the favorite. That means some kind of upheaval has to happen. You’re either going to beat the odds and win everything in the ninth (or later innings) in every game, or you’re going to be so good that no one touches you, or you’re going to need a couple of pitchers to absolutely shut down a great offense, or a hitter is going to have to hit .600. You get the idea. Something amazing has to happen, or it’s hard to see an underdog get it done and outlast some very good teams.
Watch the “LOB” Stat
No matter what opportunities are handed to you, take advantage. When the odds are in your favor to score, score. When you get a two out walk, make them pay. When they make an error that keeps the inning alive, make some hay. Whoever leaves the most on base usually regrets it when it comes to baseball. A team could get 10 hits and not see a run cross, but another team could see five base runners and win 5-4. It’s super crucial for WKU to strand runners defensively while converting opportunities offensively.
WKU’s Path to Victory
I think the path to victory almost certainly goes through the winner’s bracket as long as possible. WKU worked extremely hard to give themselves a decent draw in the C-USA Tournament, and although I think this is in the tougher side of the bracket, I think WKU has two beatable opponents in their pod: FAU and Rice.
WKU plays FAU first. Regardless of their revenge factor and a .623 on-base percentage guy with power that plays great defense, FAU is still a pretty average college baseball team overall statistically. The Tops need to find a way to out-hoot the Owls in the first game, and then depending on what has happened, WKU could either draw a really bad Rice who upset DBU at their home park, or a DBU team who WKU has confidence against.
If WKU loses the first game, it’s a game of survival. You have no cushion. You can’t throw in the towel and burn one pitcher and get through five innings with no consequences, for example. If you get into a situation and you know you’ve got an extra game in your pocket, when your pitcher gives up a five-run lead in a game of desperation, you have to yank him and burn all of your best matches. If it’s a game you can afford to lose, you can make him trot out there and give up 15 runs and get through a few innings and come back later and win the next one.
There’s less pressure in the winner’s bracket, and it’s so much more exciting. If the Tops could win the first two games, things shape up extremely nicely. WKU would either avoid DBU all-together or at most only have to win two of three against them. If Rice somehow upset DBU in the first game, WKU suddenly becomes the odds-on favorite, or at least co-favorite, with DBU at that point.
In a four team pod double elimination-style tournament, the team that wins its first two goes to the “knockout round” with two chances to beat whoever survives of the other three teams. One team will not win a game. Another will win a game but lose two. Another will win two in the loser’s bracket and need two more to make it to the championship.
Here’s the bottom line: Once you lose a game, you can’t lose another. Once you get to the championship game, it’s one game to rule them all.
If WKU can just find its way to the championship game, you have to like your chances. WKU has proven an ability to win series, and the Tops are some of the best at in-game strategy, small ball, and putting pressure on opponents. That fares well in a one game battle.
You have to like WKU’s chances. The Tops, along with Dallas Baptist, are probably the hottest team in Conference USA right now. WKU has beaten everybody in their path the last month and a half. Before that, WKU was competitive, but really struggled in the early part of the conference slate.
The Tops have pieces, and do not have a major flaw. If WKU can rein in the errors and get some decent pitching performances, it’s then just up to the Topper offense to go out and make some plays.
All games will be on ESPN+ starting with WKU’s first game vs. FAU at 7:30 p.m. CT Wednesday night. The championship game will air Sunday, May 28 at 1 p.m. on CBS Sports Network.