NMSU Predictions and Roundtable: Can You Trust Tyson Helton to Navigate the Tops to a Championship?

Roundtable: WKU goes to New Mexico State, a team that beat WKU last year that plays good football at home. Can the Tops overcome the moment and the altitude to get a tough road win?

Courtesy: Steve Roberts, WKU Athletics

Western Kentucky Football is, let’s say approaching third base and there’s a ball in the gap.

Can the Tops get safely home?

Western Kentucky (6-2, 4-0 CUSA) has put itself in prime position to win Conference USA in 2024. After 8 long years, could it be time for WKU to make it back to CUSA glory?

Standing in their way this week is New Mexico State (2-6, 1-4 CUSA). Although the record is ugly, NMSU is yet to get blown out at home. They have taken most of their beatings on the road, and their two wins have come at home with close losses to Liberty and New Mexico in Las Cruces.

This is a serious opponent, and the Tops must figure out how to handle the altitude. Although it’s not like they’re playing atop a huge mountain in the snow, they will be playing at several thousand feet of elevation.

Setting the Table

There are some variables here that make this game extremely dangerous, so our big question this week is how the Tops navigate these four difficult games going forward.

WKU is at NMSU, at home against La Tech, travels to Liberty, and comes home to take on currently CUSA undefeated Jacksonville State.

We like to hear from multiple perspectives, so our questions this week are this:

1. Do you trust WKU Head Coach Tyson Helton to navigate the Tops to a championship in 2024?

2. What is your score prediction for NMSU and why?

NMSU Predictions

Matt McCay (8-1, 7-1 FB)

In the big picture, Tyson Helton has done a great job at WKU in his six years here. WKU is going to be in a bowl game for its sixth year in a row under his leadership. He is a wonderful CEO, a wonderful coordinator of recruiting, and his teams find a way to pretty guarantee they will not absolutely suck. There’s a high floor because the organization is run by a stable human being with a brain who cares.

However, everyone has a weakness. I think Tyson Helton’s in-game decision making is questionable at times. We could go way in death, but Tyson has made enough flubs to make you nervous when WKU is in a close game. He’s still figuring out how to handle two minute timeouts. He’s still burning timeouts on things like avoiding special teams penalties. He’s still got his team wasting time at the end of halves and games. He calls a fake dive jet sweet on a 4th-and-1 in the red zone up 17. More broadly, he goes for it on 4th down too much. I especially take issue with going for it on 4th down and costing yourself points. Or handing the other team the ball at midfield when you’re not desperate and they are.

To answer the question, no, I honestly don’t completely trust him to make the best decision in crunch time. He is a wonderful person and is doing a great job, but his weakness is getting a little crazy in big moments. He calls it “playing to win”. I call it an unnecessary can of worms. Sometimes I just ask, “Why?” Purposeful aggression is perfectly acceptable if that’s your style. But if it’s not strategic and not consistent and risks more than you gain, that’s reckless aggression.

NMSU is a team that plays well at home. Statistically, they are indescribably better at home. Some of that is playing tough teams on the road (JSU, SHSU, Fresno State) vs playing some softer teams at home (SEMO, UNM, La Tech). But they did also nearly upset Liberty before the aura of last year’s greatness had worn off by the middle of the season this year.

I respect them. However, this is just like the last three weeks. From where does the offense cometh enough to beat the Tops? WKU will almost certainly score in the 20s, and really is pretty much a shoe-in for the low 30s against a porous defense. Can NMSU score in the 20s? Can they remotely scratch the 30s if WKU plays well offensively? I just don’t see it.

This feels like more of an offensive explosion for WKU than their effort against Kennesaw. Give me WKU 44-NMSU 17.

Alex Sherfield (8-1, 8-0 FB)

On paper, this seems like an easy game but with how WKU has played on the road this season, I still want to feel like I can expect a complete game at their own control. The Aggies don’t look convincing in both their offensive & defensive output, being among one of the worst teams on this both sides of the ball.

Either way, this should be in WKU’s favor from start to finish. I’m looking for Easton Messer to have a great day as well. Give me WKU 40, NMSU 18.

Jake Gary (8-1, 8-0 FB)

I think Helton can get us there. Our players are playing well so far and we’ve put away teams we should be beating. Our only two losses are to Alabama and Boston College who has been solid this year under Bill O’Brien. He (Helton) has a few more big games to end out the year, and that’ll tell us exactly who this team is. Jax State and Liberty will reveal all. But I do trust Helton to deliver.

(For this game) it is hard to see NMSU giving the Tops a run for their money in this game. NMSU didn't put up much of a fight last game vs. FIU and the Tops are on a roll, even when they seemed to be toying around vs. Kennesaw State. I expect Veltkamp to be the big difference in this game, betting on him to score a rushing touchdown, and two passing touchdowns. Tops take this one and continue their unbeaten march in CUSA.

WKU 34-NMSU 10

Devin Stewart (7-0, 7-0 FB)

WKU 35-NMSU 14

When asked for comment, Devin said, “Matt’s a b****”

Editor’s note: To quote “A League of Their Own”, when Dotty Henson is mad at her sister and the teammate asks, “Has anyone seen my new red hat?”, Dotty goes, “OHHHH PISS ON YOUR HAT!” and her teammate goes, “Well, that seemed uncalled for.” This is that moment, Devin.

Then after ten seconds of guilt, Devin “graciously” added “Nah just ‘Tops take care of business and outperform the NMSU Aggies.’”

Editor’s note: You see, Devin is having a hard time right now. Stress at work, I suppose. #BlessHisHeart

David McCay (7-2, 7-1 FB)

I believe that WKU will get to the championship game this year. I believe they can win the championship this year. The only school that I see in the way is Jacksonville State. In reference to Helton specifically, the only other bump in the road may be over aggressive fourth down call misses versus taking a field goal. In terms of whether I think Tyson Helton actually costs WKU in a close game, I would say no. I fully expect WKU to find a way to win a championship at year’s end.

New Mexico State is a very interesting team. If this game was in Bowling Green, it would be a wide margin blow out if the coaches would allow it to be. But in Las Cruces, the Aggies are a different team. Away from their home, NMSt loses by 31 points or so. At home, they give up 31 points per game and score 30 with a record of 2-2. Therefore, I will predict a game on the numbers and say WKU wins 31-28. Western will not cover the inflated spread. Of course, now Western will totally blow them away, as they should, and my prediction will be correct except for the score. GO TOPS!!!

Bret Combest (5-0, 4-0 FB)

Fletcher Keel (1-0, 1-0 FB)

---

It’s now the meat of Conference USA season in football, basketball is finally here, Volleyball is deep in CUSA play and prepping for the postseason, and the Topper fall calendar is in full swing. And good luck finding an outlet that provides comprehensive Lady Topper coverage.

Don’t you want to be connected with the only WKU outlet that provides real, unbiased perspective with live tweeting, breaking news, a podcast, and full-length articles? No one else does exactly what we do, and it’s all for FREE! There’s no charge for the one stop shop that is The Towel Rack!

Towel Rack is completely free and will always be free if you don’t want to give a dime. There truly is zero obligation, and there will be no guilt trip if you never contribute.

However, for those that are able or willing, if you’d like to support the Towel Rack’s efforts (like traveling with teams, credentials, podcast expenses, state/federal business licensing, administration costs, etc.)…click the button below!

Your donation is valued and appreciated. We strive to be Johnny Hilltopper’s number one resource for real information. Thanks for all that you’ve done over the years, Hilltopper fans!

GO TOPS!!!!