Predicting WKU's Road Trip to Sam Houston
Roundtable: We ask our staff for their predictions, as well as asking them to respond: "Is SHSU really going to be standing as a top CUSA contender in 2024 or do they fade to end the year?"
Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State are primed for an incredible showdown in Huntsville, Texas, Wednesday night. To some degree, WKU was expected to be here, likely sitting at 2-0 in Conference USA with a .500 record or better. They were probably not really expected to be nearly 5-1 after playing two Power Fours and another solid Group of Five program. They could easily be 3-3 and no one would be in panic mode.
Sam Houston is certainly a different story. The Bearkats actually do come in at 5-1 and looking impressive. With a quality win (Texas State) and a respectable loss to UCF as the lone blemish, the Bearkats seem to be as good as they possibly could be at this point.
Both teams will need to show up and play pretty well to win this one. Both teams are very solid in a lot of areas. Sam Houston is more of a rush heavy team, averaging 228 yards on the ground and 400 total. WKU averages way more through the air, only averaging 120 on the ground. Both defenses are solid against the run and the pass. Both teams force turnovers, and both teams have good red zone defense.
We aren’t totally shocked to see Sam Houston playing good football this season, but the shocking part is that they look so great.
So in addition to our normal predictions, we ask our staff to give us their measure of Sam Houston State. Are they for real? Will they truly contend for a CUSA title this season? Or will they fade into the distance as the season goes along?
We ask our staff…
"Is SHSU really going to be standing as a top CUSA contender in 2024 or do they fade to end the year?"
Predictions
Matt McCay (5-1)
This is a nip-and-tuck type of game, so I’m really digging around to see how I think this might go down. On the one hand, Sam Houston is a weird offense that makes you play assignment football. They run some jet sweeps, run read option out of the jet sweep, run a true read-option with a deep fake in the chest on play action and the option, and the quarterback leads the team in rushing. Unlike some quarterbacks that can play like that, he can also pass pretty well, although the passing offense leaves something to be desired (172 ypg). On the other hand, SHSU’s special teams could be a weakness. The field goal kicker is good (8-10, 0 missed PATs), but only eight touchbacks and six kicks out of bounds on 38 tries tells you a lot about the inconsistency on kickoff. The punter is also kicking for less than 40 yards per punt. Could that be the difference?
I think this feels like a decent matchup for WKU. The defense does a good job when they have assignment football type of matchups. They do struggle with running QBs, but I believe they should be able to take away the pass and force Sam Houston to produce all of their points on the ground. I think that will make for a difficult outing, because WKU’s offense has significant potential to score points. The Tops are not as prolific as some of the previous offenses, but a nice bonus that creates a lot of wiggle room is the ability to run. WKU can actually run the ball this year and three or four backs capable of having big games. I think WKU’s ability to run, as well as WKU’s overall defensive ability is really going to help.
Sam Houston is a legitimate contender for the CUSA title, and I actually have them and WKU in a rematch in Bowling Green for the CUSA Championship. I think WKU matches up better than they usually do against a team like this. I think Sam will struggle to put up points against a WKU defense that finds a way to keep its opponents from scoring. I think Sam’s rush defense, which has not allowed more than 119 yards in any of their wins, is an interesting factor. If WKU can get something going on the ground and be able to pass, I think SHSU will struggle to keep up with WKU on the scoreboard.
I say special teams ends up stealing some yardage for WKU, and the Tops win a field position/field goal game in the high 20s. I think it’s going to be a weird one. I’m feeling inspired by the Ole Miss/LSU game, I guess, but give me Western Kentucky 29-Sam Houston 26.
Alex Sherfield (6-0)
The Tops are facing a tough challenge on the road in Huntsville (Texas) on Wednesday. This Sam Houston State ball club is definitely proving themselves week by week as a real contender for the CUSA Championship. They’re also on a four game winning streak and they’ve had this game circled on the calendar since last season, after dropping a potential road upset in their first meeting.
Overall, the Bearkats aren’t slouches in 2024. Hunter Watson is a dual threat at quarterback, who in more ways than one, spells trouble for the Tops defense. The running game is also a big thing to watch as the Bearkats average over 200 yards per contest, something the Tops struggled against, especially on the road. If they can blow up a few plays, they can control the tempo before it has the potential to get out of hand early.
Defensively, they’re among one of the top units in the country, including being number one overall in CUSA statistics. Their pass defense is their biggest strength and it’s no surprise that Caden Veltkamp will be tested all night in avoiding turning the ball over.
It’s going to be slugfest between these two teams and it’ll definitely come down to who can make the lesser of mistakes.
Give me WKU 34-Sam Houston 31.
Jake Gary (6-0)
Western heads to Elliot T. Bowers Stadium this Wednesday to take on Sam Houston. This game is incredibly important, because it could be one of the deciding factors between being in the conference championship game… and being out of it. Besides these two teams, Liberty and Jax State are also undefeated in conference.
Sam Houston and WKU have both held their opponents to a total of 143 points on the year. Both have one blow out loss to a power 5 conference opponent (though being blown out by Bama is better than being blown out by UCF). Tops have another last second loss to Boston College while Sam Houston hasn’t played any other team of note.
I’m not over impressed by Sam Houston. 5-1 is a good team record but they’ve played a cake walk schedule. Their loss comes to 3-3 UCF and their best win is 4-2 Texas State. Now, they did come back from being down 22-0 to Texas State, which says a lot about their team. And Tops have struggled on the road, going 1-2 as opposed to 3-0 at home.
Either way… Give me the Tops 33-Bearkats 28. Hilltoppers take this one in a game where we will see some offense from both teams.
Devin Stewart AKA “King of the Hill” (5-0)
So I have finally been crowned King of the Hill; it’s a self proclaimed title (for being the closest to the final score) but well deserved.*
*Editor’s note: Devin’s ridiculous, (respectfully) self-absorbed views are not remotely endorsed by The Towel Rack.
WKU 25-21
WKU and Sam Houston are in the same boat. They’ve both had some offensive struggles, their QB has 300 yards less than Caden Veltkamp as well as thrown more interceptions. Sam Houston has a very high powered offense. They have performed really well. But so has WKU. We did play really well against Boston College (came up short), beat Toledo, beat MTSU, and last week, we did what needed to be done with UTEP. We did have some mistakes, but we have a young QB, so it’s a little more understandable. At least we are seeing progress from week to week.
So let’s hope WKU is able to “shore up” the mistakes and win this predicted dog fight/ bear cat fight that’s bout to go down in Huntsville, TX.
Go Tops!
David McCay (5-1)
Looking at film and statistics, I believe Sam Houston, WKU, Jacksonville State, and Liberty are the top four teams now and probably will be at the end of the season. Specifically, Sam Houston is legitimate. Wins against good non-conference opponents and a 5-1 record show their quality. Only time and scores will tell who rises to the top, but according to my analysis, Sam Houston will be there at the end.
The four contenders will play each other this year, so Conference USA play is about to get very interesting. This week WKU’s (4-2 overall, 2-0 CUSA) passing offense plays Sam Houston’s (5-1 overall, 2-0 CUSA) rushing offense.
The Bearkats will run twice as much as they pass. This year so far they have 286 rush attempts for 1373 yards and 150 pass attempts for 1034 yards. WKU now averages 28.2 points, 120 yards rushing and 278.8 yards passing per game. Western’s defense gives up 23.8 points per game, 161.7 rushing yards and 224 passing yards per game. These numbers continue to improve as the season progresses.
Statistics are interesting, but it all comes down to the gridiron in Huntsville, Texas on Wednesday between the Sam Houston State University Bearkats and the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers. This game initially looks like a coin toss game, opening with WKU as 2.5 point underdogs. This game looks close on paper and Vegas thinks so, too. I believe Western wins a close one 31-28.
GO TOPS!!!
Fletcher Keel (1-0)
Bret Combest (3-0)
Conclusion: We Believe in WKU Despite How Close This One Should Be
I thought we might have one person go against the grain and pick Sam Houston. It would be a viable pick for sure considering they’re favored at home. We may all prove to be homer fools after this one. However, for those that have watched WKU, there’s something different about this team than some of the others in recent memory.
For whatever reason, that “it” factor has us believing to the tune of our entire staff feeling a close road victory.
If we’re wrong, oh well. If we’re biased, oh well.
Both teams have an opportunity to take a big step towards a Conference USA Championship game appearance. The losing team will be on the back foot the rest of the season trying to squeeze into the championship game.
The Tops play at 6 PM CST on ESPN2 Wednesday night. Tune in, Tops!
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GO TOPS!!!!